US-UK discussing 1st November trade deal

[cyril evans awaydays]

How many members of the public have the foggiest idea of the consequences of a no-deal Brexit (or even of staying in the EU)? Most people tend to speak using superficial slogans rather than having detailed economic arguments.

Here is a small example of the intricacies of global trade.

A friend of mine works for an agricultural marketing consultancy and has been working on a project on opportunities for export of skimmed milk powder to Indonesia.

Just the type of market post-Brexit that would be on our radar. 275 million people, 6% economic growth and an appetite for things produced in our temperate climate that they cannot produce themselves.

At the moment there is a 5% import duty on SMP whilst the Australians and New Zealanders have negotiated zero tariff via their trade deals. The hope has been to get equivalence and to be able to compete more easily.

Concurrently however, to show our environmental credentials and support for the preservation of the orang-utan we, along with other EU countries, decided to ban imports of Indonesian palm oil. Indonesia responded by increasing the import duty on SMP five-fold effectively excluding UK produce from that market.

You could argue that when we leave the EU we can unilaterally decide to lift the ban on palm oil and get preferential access to Indonesian markets, particularly as we may lose EU markets trading on WTO terms. Also the fate of the rain forest and the orang-utan is a small price to pay compared with the economic benefits that may accrue.

[Taunton Blue Genie]

Here is a small example of the intricacies of global trade.

A friend of mine works for an agricultural marketing consultancy and has been working on a project on opportunities for export of skimmed milk powder to Indonesia.

Just the type of market post-Brexit that would be on our radar. 275 million people, 6% economic growth and an appetite for things produced in our temperate climate that they cannot produce themselves.

At the moment there is a 5% import duty on SMP whilst the Australians and New Zealanders have negotiated zero tariff via their trade deals. The hope has been to get equivalence and to be able to compete more easily.

Concurrently however, to show our environmental credentials and support for the preservation of the orang-utan we, along with other EU countries, decided to ban imports of Indonesian palm oil. Indonesia responded by increasing the import duty on SMP five-fold effectively excluding UK produce from that market.

You could argue that when we leave the EU we can unilaterally decide to lift the ban on palm oil and get preferential access to Indonesian markets, particularly as we may lose EU markets trading on WTO terms. Also the fate of the rain forest and the orang-utan is a small price to pay compared with the economic benefits that may accrue.

Thanks, I welcome factual and helpful situation from either side of the fence in order to educate myself on a matter that I know so little about considering the complexities involved. It's just a pity that most people I come across (and see being questioned on TV in vox pop street interviews) know no more than me about the subject themselves but are very dogmatic about the ramifications of Brexit.
Unfortunately, my 'A' level Economics pass qualifies me to vote on the subject as much as my 'O' level woodwork qualifies me to design and create quality furniture from trees that are still standing.............