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Agreed, but it's going to depend on how well observed the lockdown and social isolation are - here's the post I made few days back which I think shows how both very high and very low estimates could be proved completely wrong;-
http://www.ccmb.co.uk/showthread.php...very-effective
Even that image is a gross simplification. It implies people only have one potential source of infection. The way that's presented, a 1 to 1 relationship means that knocking one "source" out ( by isolating ) prevents others along that source tree further down the line getting it. It's nowhere near as simple as that.
Even that image is a gross simplification. It implies people only have one potential source of infection. The way that's presented, a 1 to 1 relationship means that knocking one "source" out ( by isolating ) prevents others along that source tree further down the line getting it. It's nowhere near as simple as that.
How do we not know that?
It seems to be fairly infectious. I very much doubt any of the figures of infections are including those with no symptoms because who would know?
What I suspect ( gut feeling, not a virologist ) is it's something that is clearly pretty infectious, for the vast majority there are no symptoms or are very, very mild symptoms. Wife has a compromised immune system, she had a virus back in December. The symptoms were pretty much those attributed to covid-19. Didn't require hospitalisation thankfully. Now, we've not been abroad last year, not been in contact with people who have - so if she picked it up then would have been heavily present in UK back in December.