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Agreed, but it's going to depend on how well observed the lockdown and social isolation are - here's the post I made few days back which I think shows how both very high and very low estimates could be proved completely wrong;-Originally Posted by Wales-Bales
We are depending on those people to be right, so let's just hope that they are
http://www.ccmb.co.uk/showthread.php...very-effective
Even that image is a gross simplification. It implies people only have one potential source of infection. The way that's presented, a 1 to 1 relationship means that knocking one "source" out ( by isolating ) prevents others along that source tree further down the line getting it. It's nowhere near as simple as that.
Even that image is a gross simplification. It implies people only have one potential source of infection. The way that's presented, a 1 to 1 relationship means that knocking one "source" out ( by isolating ) prevents others along that source tree further down the line getting it. It's nowhere near as simple as that.
It's supposed to get a message across, not be an exact replica of what will happen and it's very effective at doing that.
The point being that message isn't the complete one. It ignores the reality that most people have probably had the virus by now too.
How do we know that?
How do we not know that?
It seems to be fairly infectious. I very much doubt any of the figures of infections are including those with no symptoms because who would know?
What I suspect ( gut feeling, not a virologist ) is it's something that is clearly pretty infectious, for the vast majority there are no symptoms or are very, very mild symptoms. Wife has a compromised immune system, she had a virus back in December. The symptoms were pretty much those attributed to covid-19. Didn't require hospitalisation thankfully. Now, we've not been abroad last year, not been in contact with people who have - so if she picked it up then would have been heavily present in UK back in December.
Or, which is more likely, she didn't have covid in December.
If it was heavily present in the UK in December, it would have been noticed.
Over 100,000 people tested. Over 11,000 positive.
While its obvious that there are more walking around with it there is no way most people have had it. Not even close.
In my opinion of course.
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