george galloway

[Eric Cartman]

People deserve a decent opposition

We clearly havnt got that as you yourself allude to

I don't think the high ratings in the polls are transferring onto the ballot box

I want the Tories out but a lot of voters seem to be lukewarm , incredible given the mess we are in

I don't know how you could draw that conclusion given we have recently seen by-elections with enormous (near record/record) swings.

So what would make a 'decent opposition'?

[pipster]

I don't know how you could draw that conclusion given we have recently seen by-elections with enormous (near record/record) swings.

So what would make a 'decent opposition'?

It may have been a record 'swing' but the Labour vote count shifted by about 100 votes in the by election a fortnight ago. All that tells you is that the conservative stayed at home - whilst the same people that voted Lab last voted Labour this time. If the 'missing' conservative voters come out it's a different picture.

For what it's worth all this has the same feel as both 1992 and 1997 election. 1992 Kinnock was parading around as the next PM - and lost. Blair wasnt so presumptuous and won by a landslide as Major had all the charisma of a wet sponge.

I think Sludge is probably right - minority win to Sir Keir or Lib/Lab pact.

Lab will blame everything on the previous Govt - and so the cycle begins - all over again.

Personally I'd love to see Drakeford or Born Guessing as PM to really demonstrate what a sh1tshow really looks like

[jon1959]

It may have been a record 'swing' but the Labour vote count shifted by about 100 votes in the by election a fortnight ago. All that tells you is that the conservative stayed at home - whilst the same people that voted Lab last voted Labour this time. If the 'missing' conservative voters come out it's a different picture.

Wrong. Although that is almost word-for-word what Tory Central Office sent out as speaker notes after they bombed!

The evidence from the previous two by elections was that a lot of 2019 Tory voters stayed at home, but that a significant number switched (most of them to Labour). Many previous Labour voters stayed at home too. That is what happens in by elections with reduced turn out when both major parties are toxic or uninspiring (sometimes both).

It was certainly not the case that everyone who voted Labour in 2019 turned out and that the swing was down to Tory voters who stayed at home to fire a warning shot at Sunak before they trot out to vote for him again at the next General Election.

[Rjk]

Wrong. Although that is almost word-for-word what Tory Central Office sent out as speaker notes after they bombed!

The evidence from the previous two by elections was that a lot of 2019 Tory voters stayed at home, but that a significant number switched (most of them to Labour). Many previous Labour voters stayed at home too. That is what happens in by elections with reduced turn out when both major parties are toxic or uninspiring (sometimes both).

It was certainly not the case that everyone who voted Labour in 2019 turned out and that the swing was down to Tory voters who stayed at home to fire a warning shot at Sunak before they trot out to vote for him again at the next General Election.

they are clutching at straws, everyone knows the tories are heading for a big defeat the way things currently stand

[Eric Cartman]

It may have been a record 'swing' but the Labour vote count shifted by about 100 votes in the by election a fortnight ago. All that tells you is that the conservative stayed at home - whilst the same people that voted Lab last voted Labour this time. If the 'missing' conservative voters come out it's a different picture.

It doesn't tell you that though. It might tell you that but you don't have enough information to be able to say and you are effectively saying there is no such thing as a swing voter which we know to be false. 1960s to 1980s there was far more party loyalty with about 20% of people reporting that they voted for a different party from one election to the next but this has been steadily increasing and is now in the 30-40% range every election.

Blair/Cameron were successful because they could win votes from the other side. Boris managed it from a combination of Brexit and Corbyn.