Prison Justice served ? ? ? return of the death sentence ? ? ?

[rudy gestede]

I'm always ready to learn from an expert. What statistics don't I understand?

Luckily for you I am an expert. You’ve taken the murder rates for one year in Cape Town and extrapolated that over 80 years then applied it to Cardiff as if it’s a rate. Not only do you have too small a sample time but you can simply extrapolate it like that. And you’ve ignored the facets that make certain people more likely to be murdered than others. Basically you’re chatting shite.

Also no one has ever been murdered at a Cardiff game so you couldn’t just assign a frequency from a calculated rate

If you had a 1E-03 chance of being murdered at a football match no one would go.

[David Vincent]

Luckily for you I am an expert. You’ve taken the murder rates for one year in Cape Town and extrapolated that over 80 years then applied it to Cardiff as if it’s a rate. Wrong

Oh dear, despite all your self-proclaimed expertise I am feeling slightly underwhelmed by your lesson.

Let's assume you meant "can't simply extrapolate" but, unfortunately, you can’t assume anything with some of the posters on here. Small sample time? Ignored facets? Do you really think anyone is going to create and present some sort of academic paper on murder rates just to make a point on football messageboard? You are clutching at straws. My aim was to show how looking at the lifetime chance of being murdered rather than the yearly average gives you a different impression of the murder rate. I am sure you will be the first to congratulate me on achieving that objective. If the murder rate in Cardiff is 1.7 per 100,000 then that seems much safer than saying you have a 1 in 735 chance of being murdered before you are 80 even though, given many obvious assumptions, they mean the same thing.

[Croesy Blue]

Oh dear, despite all your self-proclaimed expertise I am feeling slightly underwhelmed by your lesson.

Let's assume you meant "can't simply extrapolate" but, unfortunately, you can’t assume anything with some of the posters on here. Small sample time? Ignored facets? Do you really think anyone is going to create and present some sort of academic paper on murder rates just to make a point on football messageboard? You are clutching at straws. My aim was to show how looking at the lifetime chance of being murdered rather than the yearly average gives you a different impression of the murder rate. I am sure you will be the first to congratulate me on achieving that objective. If the murder rate in Cardiff is 1.7 per 100,000 then that seems much safer than saying you have a 1 in 735 chance of being murdered before you are 80 even though, given many obvious assumptions, they mean the same thing.

You're chatting absolute shite mate and none of it is even an arguement for the death penalty.