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Thread: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

  1. #26

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by Vindec View Post
    I have stated previously that I have found your posts to be of interest. However, the report is not nearly as sensational as you have previously implied. There is nothing about colour blindness of the pilot, nothing about Henderson giving the flight to Ibbotson or the fact that Henderson's credit card was used to pay Ibbotson's hotel accommodation and flight expenses such as landing fees at Nantes as well as fuel for the flight.

    Neither is there anything about Henderson lodging the original flight plan or anything in the report that would warrant your belief that Henderson and McKay would be shaking in their boots (or words to that effect) when the report is released. Indeed there is absolutely nothing to incriminate either Henderson or McKay and ,on first reading, they are not implicated at all. Of course these matters might be investigated further when the other reports are released. Another point is the licensing ratings of Ibbotson which do not appear to have been fully investigated by the AAIB as the report states emphatically that:

    "The pilot had an FAA PPL issued on the basis of his EASA PPL. His logbook and licence
    were not recovered from the aircraft, and the ratings on his licences and their validity
    dates have not yet been established."


    One thing is for sure and that is the legal ramifications of the flight will not be concluded for a very long time.

    Again I state I have enjoyed your posts but you too must be disappointed that it failed to fully justify all your conclusions.
    Vindec, I am not disappointed by the AAIB Interim Report.... I will be disappointed if the Full report isn't a more concise document that covers everything already known & what is still being investigated

    AIR ACCIDENTS INVESTIGATION BRANCH BRIEFING NOTE
    Information
    We investigate civil aircraft accidents and serious incidents in the United Kingdom.

    Intent
    We improve aviation safety by determining the circumstances and causes of air accidents and serious incidents, and promoting action to prevent reoccurrence.
    We are a “stand-alone” branch of the Department for Transport and are completely separate from the Civil Aviation Authority. The Chief Inspector of Air Accidents is responsible directly to the Secretary of State for Transport.
    We are responsible for ensuring that the UK complies with its national and international statutory obligations for air accident investigation.
    WE DO NOT APPORTION BLAME
    OR LIABILITY.
    I think this is why in the Interim report there is absolutely nothing to incriminate either Henderson or McKay and ,on first reading, they are not implicated at all, the further investigations being made will be looking at the flight organisers with a fine tooth comb. You will notice that the AAIB haven't apportioned blame or liability on the pilot either, but they have stated facts that allow the readers of the interim report to draw their own conclusions

  2. #27

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by Duggie View Post
    The thing is, the AAIB are not there to apportion any blame, their job is to establish the facts of what happened as best as they can. The style of their report reflects this, i.e. it’s a list of facts along with some explanation for us non-aviation types.

    They won’t be holding anything back pending any potential legal action because they won’t be taking any, but on the other hand they won’t publish anything they are not certain about either.
    They could have withheld specific pieces of information that are part of an ongoing criminal investigation.

  3. #28

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by delmbox View Post
    Oh thank God there's someone else
    And me twice Ignored it on that mistaken basis ,then I realised it wasn't ****, as folks were contributing and they had brains.

  4. #29

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by Wales-Bales View Post
    I reckon they have held stuff back due to a parallel, possibly criminal investigation. That's my personal opinion.
    Wales-Bales,
    Your personal opinion is an 'educated opinion' I have come to the conclusion that very few on this messageboard have had any education as I am now wondering why I have been 'called out' a few too many times & now everything I have stated or discussed is within the AAIB Interim report that they are all reading.

    I will be waiting for the retractions of the calls of speculation from those who claimed I was speculating without any substance.

  5. #30

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by Flyer46 View Post
    Wales-Bales,
    Your personal opinion is an 'educated opinion' I have come to the conclusion that very few on this messageboard have had any education as I am now wondering why I have been 'called out' a few too many times & now everything I have stated or discussed is within the AAIB Interim report that they are all reading.

    I will be waiting for the retractions of the calls of speculation from those who claimed I was speculating without any substance.
    The news outlets have been full of all the dodgy stuff, but none of it has been mentioned in the AAIB report.

  6. #31

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by Flyer46 View Post
    Wales-Bales,
    Your personal opinion is an 'educated opinion' I have come to the conclusion that very few on this messageboard have had any education as I am now wondering why I have been 'called out' a few too many times & now everything I have stated or discussed is within the AAIB Interim report that they are all reading.

    I will be waiting for the retractions of the calls of speculation from those who claimed I was speculating without any substance.
    Probably because you have Magic Roath boots and are looking for the (Im)poster of the year award? How did the Oscars go, btw?

  7. #32

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by Flyer46 View Post
    As the interim report is now in the public domain we are free to talk about any part of the interim report, I will pick out a few paragraphs that are very relevant that we wouldn't previously have made comments on.

    (1) At about 2015:30 hrs, N264DB started to make a gradual left turn, which was followed at
    about 2016:10 hrs by a right turn of approximately 180°. During this turn, data from two
    independent radars (Guernsey and Jersey) showed the aircraft descend to an altitude
    of about 1,600 ft at an average rate of approximately 7,000 ft/min. A few seconds later
    (at 2016:34 hrs) the final secondary radar return was recorded, which indicated that the
    aircraft may have climbed rapidly to about 2,300 ft. Two more primary radar returns
    were recorded, timed at 2016:38 hrs and 2016:50 hrs respectively, but it is not yet known
    whether they represent valid returns from the aircraft.


    A descent of 7000ft is not a controlled descent rate, an ascent from 1600ft to 2300ft in a few seconds is not a controlled climb rate They are most likely attributed to the pilot having lost control in spatial disorientation or through disturbed airflow due to Ice build up causing the pilot to be chasing an artificial reading erroneously

    (2)A PPL does not allow a pilot to carry passengers for reward; to do so requires a commercial
    licence. The basis on which the passenger was being carried on N264DB has not yet
    been established but, previously, the pilot had carried passengers on the basis of ‘cost
    sharing’. Cost sharing allows a private pilot to carry passengers and for those passengers
    to contribute towards the actual cost of the flight. Cost sharing brings benefits to private
    pilots who, by sharing the expense of their flying, can fly more than they might otherwise
    be able to, thereby increasing their level of experience. A higher level of regulatory burden
    applies to commercial, compared with private flights (such as more stringent medical,
    licencing and airworthiness requirements), and the additional requirements increase the
    level of safety assurance. Therefore, although the UK, EU and US regulatory authorities
    allow cost sharing, they apply restrictions to it.


    As already stated in my previous posts, Dave Ibbotson was a PPL that disallowed him from flying paying passengers, so the emphasis on whether he was conducting a private flight or a commercial flight is highly relevant & something I have covered in previous posts.

    (3)The pilot of N264DB held an EASA PPL, issued by the CAA in the UK, and an FAA PPL,
    issued on the basis of his EASA PPL. It is thought that the pilot’s licence and logbook
    were lost with the aircraft and so the ratings on his licences and their validity, and the
    extent of his recent flying have not yet been determined.


    Having seen a copy of Dave Ibbotson's EASA PPL I know that it clearly states 'DAY ONLY' & that is due to his colourblindness & I know exactly what licence privileges he had. His licence privileges didn't allow Night Flight nor Instrument only flight. ( I still have his licence copies on file & they are the same copies that the AAIB & CAA have been given in this investigation )

    (4)The pilot had an FAA PPL issued on the basis of his EASA PPL. His logbook and licence
    were not recovered from the aircraft, and the ratings on his licences and their validity
    dates have not yet been established.


    I find this paragraph slightly bizarre because I have seen a copy of his licence & the ratings attached, so I am pretty sure that the AAIB & CAA have seen the same details as I have.

    Now, I will await the questions from anyone who thinks I put any speculation into my previous posts.... I have only ever stated facts that I could release & now the Interim report is in the Public Domain I can be part of an 'Open Chat'
    On this aircraft deicing equipment was installed. Can you confirm if this applies only to carb. deicing? Presumably nothing to do with heating leading edges or similar. Also, could the erratic decrease, increase, decrease in altitude be partly explained by localised downdrafts, updrafts and wind shear associated with with an approaching cold front? Could the aircraft have been battered by hail?

  8. #33

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by IanD View Post
    The report states that, at one point, the plane was descending at 7,000ft per minute, roughly 80mph. Not sure if that means vertically. Also, the plane was going up and down, not just a general descent. Looks like the pilot was struggling to keep control. The pics in the report show the catastrophic damage to the plane with the engine detatched and part of the tail missing. No wonder the pilot hasn't been found.
    descending at 7,000ft per minute is a reference to vertical speed.
    Most GA Aircraft have a VSI gauge that ranges +2000fpm-2000fpm so 7000fpm is not a controlled climb or descent
    United-Technologies-VSI-P-N-7000-Vertical-speed-indicator.jpg
    Some high performance aircraft ( i.e Aerobatic or hot rod aircraft ) have a VSI gauge that ranges +4000fpm -4000fpm
    8-210.jpg
    Some high performance turbo props & jets have a VSI gauge that ranges +6000fpm -6000fpm ( which is a very steep climb or descent)
    VAR-BENDIX.jpg

    So a 7000 ft per minute descent is a nigh near vertical dive in a Piper PA46 Malibu
    7000ft per minute is the same as 80mph in a horizontal distance, but the Malibu would have been doing 180mph in level flight & the report states 7000fpm downward to be in a dive @ 180mph with airspeed increasing on a descent path of 7000ft downward trajectory is a definite vertical dive.

  9. #34

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by Wales-Bales View Post
    They could have withheld specific pieces of information that are part of an ongoing criminal investigation.
    What criminal investigation ?

  10. #35

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by IanD View Post
    On this aircraft deicing equipment was installed. Can you confirm if this applies only to carb. deicing? Presumably nothing to do with heating leading edges or similar. Also, could the erratic decrease, increase, decrease in altitude be partly explained by localised downdrafts, updrafts and wind shear associated with with an approaching cold front? Could the aircraft have been battered by hail?
    The PA46 Malibu range nearly all have FIKI ( Flight Into Known Icing ) capabilities. I believe N264DB had de-icing boots on the leading edges of the wings & leading edge of tailplane & also the leading edges of the elevator ( highlighted in yellow boxes )
    d82238a69c3c3a01313df1e93596c862115b71cb.jpg
    These are hydraulically inflated to break off Ice build on these surfaces ( if they have a pin hole or leak, they fail to work )

    It is not known (by me) if they were serviceable on N264DB or whether the pilot understood the procedure to use them correctly

    The engine in the PA46 Malibu is a fuel injected engine so carb icing isn't an issue.

    My assumptions on the erratic decrease, increase, decrease in altitude are one of two scenarios:
    (1) The pitot head froze up & instruments failed to function correctly, thereby the pilot chasing the needles was fighting to keep what he thought was level flight
    (2) He got Spatially disorientated & just simply lost control & was pulling & pushing at the controls trying to regain level flight.

  11. #36

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by Duggie View Post
    What criminal investigation ?
    (1). If it is proven that the pilot was paid to conduct a commercial flight whilst being a PPL holder that would open up a potential criminal investigation

    (2). If it is proven that the pilot was flying at night whilst being a Daytime only PPL holder that would open up a potential criminal investigation ( I think we have established this as fact ).

    (3). If it is proven that Dave Henderson knew the pilot was paid to conduct a commercial flight whilst being a PPL holder that would open up a potential criminal investigation.

    (4). If it is proven that Willie McKay knew the pilot was a PPL Holder & was paid to conduct a commercial flight whilst being a PPL holder that would open up a potential criminal investigation.

    There are a multitude of reasons that aspects of the fateful flight could if proven that would open up a potential criminal investigation. I think this is a subject best left alone because it an area for lawyers to ponder over.

  12. #37

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by Duggie View Post
    What criminal investigation ?
    You would have to prove that there isn't one, as it is only my opinion. However, some agency has been enquiring about the ownership of the plane, and this information has not been released into the public domain, hence my educated guess that a parallel investigation is underway.

  13. #38

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by Wales-Bales View Post
    You would have to prove that there isn't one, as it is only my opinion. However, some agency has been enquiring about the ownership of the plane, and this information has not been released into the public domain, hence my educated guess that a parallel investigation is underway.
    Wales-Bales, There is a lot of information that has not been released into the public domain, it hasn't been released into the public domain because giving those who might be legally called upon a 'heads up' on what is being looked at in any investigation isn't the smartest move eh !

    The owners of the PA46 Malibu are known to the CAA & FAA and also the AAIB.
    An educated person might wonder why the beneficial owners have disappeared from their properties & cannot be found.
    An educated person might wonder why Dave Henderson has disappeared from his usual day to day movements.
    An educated person might wonder why Willie McKay is chirping like a lark to anyone who will listen to him or print his verbal Diarrhoea.

    I am not going to speculate on whether there will be any Criminal investigations, that is in the hands of the legal teams.

    My personal ( & I must stress it is a personal view ) opinion is that Willie McKay is a part or full owner of the PA46 Malibu lying at the bottom of the sea but his name won't ever be found on any Aircraft documents. Cool Flourish are just a 'smokescreen' for his flight operations.

  14. #39

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by Flyer46 View Post
    Wales-Bales,
    Your personal opinion is an 'educated opinion' I have come to the conclusion that very few on this messageboard have had any education as I am now wondering why I have been 'called out' a few too many times & now everything I have stated or discussed is within the AAIB Interim report that they are all reading.

    I will be waiting for the retractions of the calls of speculation from those who claimed I was speculating without any substance.
    Whats your educational background then. You dont have to be very clever to be able to copy other peoples websites on to this forum, which is basically what you have been doing. All you have been doing is trying to make yourself look clever, whilst at the same time pursuing your hatred of Willie Mckay and other such agents. You may have got a bit more sympathy apart from the fact that you were unable to resist the temptation to show your true colours and call us football fans a bunch of uneducated, bigoted, morons. Well, right back at you with that one. Hopefully, now that the report is released, we will be hearing from you a lot less in future.

  15. #40

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    You would have to prove that there isn't one, as it is only my opinion.


    ...Is not how it works

  16. #41

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by dml1954 View Post
    Whats your educational background then. You dont have to be very clever to be able to copy other peoples websites on to this forum, which is basically what you have been doing. All you have been doing is trying to make yourself look clever, whilst at the same time pursuing your hatred of Willie Mckay and other such agents. You may have got a bit more sympathy apart from the fact that you were unable to resist the temptation to show your true colours and call us football fans a bunch of uneducated, bigoted, morons. Well, right back at you with that one. Hopefully, now that the report is released, we will be hearing from you a lot less in future.
    DML why do you have to be personally offensive and aggressive in so many replies. There's no need for it.

  17. #42

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by dml1954 View Post
    Whats your educational background then. You dont have to be very clever to be able to copy other peoples websites on to this forum, which is basically what you have been doing. All you have been doing is trying to make yourself look clever, whilst at the same time pursuing your hatred of Willie Mckay and other such agents. You may have got a bit more sympathy apart from the fact that you were unable to resist the temptation to show your true colours and call us football fans a bunch of uneducated, bigoted, morons. Well, right back at you with that one. Hopefully, now that the report is released, we will be hearing from you a lot less in future.
    dml1954,

    My educational background is that I went to Highly regarded schools where I would agree that you don't need to be very clever to get on in the world but you do have to be in the upper echelon to have had the privilege of wasting your inheritance on a set of qualifications that you won't need if the classmates are all from wealthy backgrounds & the 'shoe in' to a job where you do very little because the grockles under you are there to graft to make you look good.

    How do you draw yourself to the conclusion that " All I have been doing is trying to make Myself look clever ? "
    I am pretty sure I have disclosed relevant information before the AAIB interim report was released that wasn't in any website or rumourmonger sites.

    How do you draw yourself to the conclusion that I am pursuing a hatred for Willie Mckay and other such agents ? I don't have a hatred for other such agents, just that c##t McKay. ( That C##t killed your Star player by his 'Wheeling,Dealing ways !! ).

    I was never looking for a bit more sympathy from the posters on these messageboards, but I wasn't expecting to be 'called out' on facts that have now become known facts.

    An educated person would have quickly realised that I was speaking with authority & to make such bold statements a person can only do that if he is able to back up his claims, I haven't seen any claim I made that has been disproven as yet?
    I suggest that you take from that remark that I haven't copied other peoples content ( perhaps some of what you feel I have copied was my content for others to copy? You will never know because you don't deserve my respect seeing as you have shown me zero respect, so run along now & sit with the rest of your carehome residents until matron dispenses your Fentanyl to you.

    Now, because that report is released I won't be posting as much because the basics are now in the public domain & the more indepth data would be wasted on the likes of you.

    Strangely, you all seem to 'call out' people like me & you have 'called out' on Wales-Bales who coincidentially seems to be better educated than you by a golden mile, so if you hold Wales-Bales in low regard...I hate to think where you fit in on the intelligence spectrum? My assumption calling you an uneducated, bigoted moron was actually an upgrade from your actual status.
    Please tell me your educational background so I can see if I summed you up correctly

  18. #43

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by simonp_ccfc View Post
    DML why do you have to be personally offensive and aggressive in so many replies. There's no need for it.
    Ah, I thought that was him being polite He seems a sad soul & I was starting to pity the old git.

    I haven't quite got the hang of this messageboard because there are so many threads that have FA to do with Football that I thought it was the 'post it' note wall where any old shite could be posted........trust me, some people do post some real shite.

  19. #44

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by Flyer46 View Post
    (1). If it is proven that the pilot was paid to conduct a commercial flight whilst being a PPL holder that would open up a potential criminal investigation

    (2). If it is proven that the pilot was flying at night whilst being a Daytime only PPL holder that would open up a potential criminal investigation ( I think we have established this as fact ).

    (3). If it is proven that Dave Henderson knew the pilot was paid to conduct a commercial flight whilst being a PPL holder that would open up a potential criminal investigation.

    (4). If it is proven that Willie McKay knew the pilot was a PPL Holder & was paid to conduct a commercial flight whilst being a PPL holder that would open up a potential criminal investigation.

    There are a multitude of reasons that aspects of the fateful flight could if proven that would open up a potential criminal investigation. I think this is a subject best left alone because it an area for lawyers to ponder over.
    Lots of if it is proven's there. I don't get how the "fact" that Ibbotson was colour blind does not merit a mention in the report even if we accept that it is not there to apportion blame. I think that you have to accept that your claim of "Having seen a copy of Dave Ibbotson's EASA PPL I know that it clearly states 'DAY ONLY' & that is due to his colourblindness & I know exactly what licence privileges he had." is going to be questioned by some on here in light of what the report says. If this is genuinely not the sort of thing that would be covered in yesterday's report, then doesn't it follow that your credentials will be questioned when you consider that this certainly wasn't the impression you gave before it was published?

  20. #45

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by lardy View Post
    You would have to prove that there isn't one, as it is only my opinion.


    ...Is not how it works
    Driving home from the Development team game yesterday, I was listening to a review of a Netflix documentary called "Behind the curve". It's about flat earthers and the way that they come back with "prove to me that I'm wrong" when their beliefs are questioned was mentioned in the review - of course, they then go on to rubbish anyone who presents them with the overwhelming evidence that they are, indeed, wrong.

  21. #46

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by Wales-Bales View Post
    You would have to prove that there isn't one, as it is only my opinion. However, some agency has been enquiring about the ownership of the plane, and this information has not been released into the public domain, hence my educated guess that a parallel investigation is underway.
    I’m not aware that a crime has been committed/reported. This is usually a pre-requisite for a criminal investigation. The accident is being investigated by the AAIB, but they have no reason to keep back any facts relevant to their report. It is the findings of their investigation that may or may not lead their a criminal investigation.

  22. #47

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by the other bob wilson View Post
    Lots of if it is proven's there. I don't get how the "fact" that Ibbotson was colour blind does not merit a mention in the report even if we accept that it is not there to apportion blame. I think that you have to accept that your claim of "Having seen a copy of Dave Ibbotson's EASA PPL I know that it clearly states 'DAY ONLY' & that is due to his colourblindness & I know exactly what licence privileges he had." is going to be questioned by some on here in light of what the report says. If this is genuinely not the sort of thing that would be covered in yesterday's report, then doesn't it follow that your credentials will be questioned when you consider that this certainly wasn't the impression you gave before it was published?
    I would suggest that the AAIB don’t yet know everything that they want to know about his licence etc. and will report on this when their information is complete.

  23. #48

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by Duggie View Post
    I would suggest that the AAIB don’t yet know everything that they want to know about his licence etc. and will report on this when their information is complete.
    Yes, to my, very, non expert mind, you could well be right.

  24. #49

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by Duggie View Post
    I’m not aware that a crime has been committed/reported. This is usually a pre-requisite for a criminal investigation. The accident is being investigated by the AAIB, but they have no reason to keep back any facts relevant to their report. It is the findings of their investigation that may or may not lead their a criminal investigation.
    Well, it looks like the club thinks there will be :

    We have grave concerns that questions still remain over the validity of the pilot’s licence and rating to undertake such a journey, as identified in the bulletin.

    We are also concerned to discover that the trip involved an aircraft which did not conform to either UK CAA or US FAA requirements for commercial activity and therefore may have been operating unlawfully.

  25. #50

    Re: AAIB INTERIM REPORT

    Quote Originally Posted by lardy View Post
    You would have to prove that there isn't one, as it is only my opinion.


    ...Is not how it works
    How does it work then?

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