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Because it came out yesterday, I posted about it in the main thread and spotted the same issue (ICU bed estimates).
As for judging that model by our daily figures, what we see are registered deaths with family consent who were hospitalised at the time of death. There could be a time lag and we may not be seeing anything like accurate numbers for total deaths.
The ONS report is going to be next to useless because we werent/aren't testing in care homes. There was a sharp increase in overall deaths recorded for the week ending 27th march. The ONS only attributed 20/~500 of these to covid because their death certificate said covid was the cause of death. The actual number caused by covid but undiagnosed could be way higher and really it is pretty impossible to know (because we arent testing widely).
938 deaths in UK today highest so far
Higher than Italy at its peak.
I think we are 2 weeks behind them.
I had the daisy one in the lower arm. That is the Heaf test (NOT a vaccine), it determined whether or not you had been exposed to the TB infection. If you hadn't been exposed, you needed the vaccine. If you had been exposed, you were immune and didn't require a vaccine.
Yes the round one was the one eveybody had, that was the HEAF test I think, the other one was the booster. I had the full injection when I was 17. The most painful injerction i ever had for length of time it took to werar of was TABT. your arm would swell and you'd ache for days.
We used to have all sorts shoved into us in the 1950s.BCG was probably one of them.
This vaccine was first used in1921.Yet 1000s died from TB
I see that model which was predicting 66,000 UK deaths a few days ago has now downgraded its figure to nearly 37,500 with a projected peak of 1,674 next Friday - that still seems high to me, but possible (their forecast for yesterday was 300 plus above the figure given in the Government briefing).
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
The Italian Premier has announced on live Tv that they will remain in lockdown until 3rd May - the only concession are stores that sell goods for children.
The previous lockdown was suggested for Tuesday of next week the 14th April - so now they’ve got another 3 weeks to endure.
I can see ours going on until the end of May.
Also remember that there is no way all deaths caused by it are actually being recorded, this model will likely be assuming that everybody who gets it badly goes to hospital.
I find the longer term projections curious, no deaths from June onwards, I can't work out if that is modeled with social distancing still in place or 'business as usual'.
Edit/ Useful info in the FAQs
When can social distancing measures be relaxed?
Our model assumes social distancing stays in place until the pandemic, in its current phase, reaches the point when deaths are less than 0.3 per million people. Based on our latest projections, we expect social distancing measures to be in place through the end of May.
The timeline could change based on what data show about the trajectory of the pandemic. In the meantime, we are working to forecast what would happen if social distancing measures are lifted before the pandemic is under control, and we will share these projections as soon as our work is complete.
Our forecasts of zero deaths in July and August assume that appropriate measures are put in place to guard against the reintroduction of COVID-19 from another state or country. These measures may include mass screening, contact tracing, testing of all individuals entering the country, and quarantine of people who test positive. Details on what these strategies need to be will be analyzed in future editions of the forecasts.
Think they expect a 2nd peak in June probably after restrictions are relaxed again, I guess the nhs will be better placed to cope then and lots might have had it by then mildly anyway. Whatever the general working population under 50 will be cracking on by then anyway....
That is likely also but to a lesser degree. Are you talking about particular examples or just in general?
As sick as it might sound there is going to be some really interesting data to analyse once the dust has settled. Deaths caused by Covid-19 that have not been attributed to Covid-19 is something that can be estimated based on historic data but likely never fully understood because we weren't testing widely enough.