View Full Version : The pressures on Labour
The way Brexit is unfolding, all of the sounds coming out of the Tory party at the moment suggests that we will ultimately accept free movement of people and contribute to the EU budget in return for a semi decent trade deal.
That is clearly going to piss off a lot of people, who were voting for controls on immigration or not giving the EU £350m a week.
As it unfolds I would expect Farage to accuse the Government of betraying the people and consolidate ukip support in areas where these factors have been the strongest drivers (and who can blame him).
Many if these areas like northern cities and the valleys are traditional labour strongholds and labour could be under real pressure if they don't play this correctly.
The only surprising thing about this is that people are surprised, then again....
Blue in the Face
29-06-16, 11:52
No matter who the next Labour leader is they are going to fail as UKIP will take a huge chunk of their vote share. Especially in this climate. I'm not sure the Labour rebels have thought this through. They want the electable leader at the helm, but if they find the best candidate now they will just waste that MPs shot at the throne. They might actually much better off holding on to a radical figure like Corbyn as at least he has a partizan voter who will be less affected by the UKIP defection. The Labour leader going into the next election will be a fall guy no matter what. I expect behind the scenes, a lot of Labour voters want a more Murdoch friendly type as Corbyn is doomed to be hammered in the press as long as he's in the hot seat.
If we have a snap general election we could find some very unusual quandaries at the ballot box. It could be that some swing voters end up voting Tory in the hope of them getting an outright majority and therefore avoid a Tory-UKIP coalition. But from this position, given how much capital Farage and co can gain from their one and only accountable issue - EU independence, a Tory-UKIP coalition looks quite likely. All depends who the next Tory leader is and how gung ho they are on Brexit. I would guess we will either have a Tory government again, or a Tory-UKIP coalition. UKIP are made up of defected Tory backbenchers anyway so I guess it's a Tory government anyway you look at it. If the new Tory leader is pro Brexit and can appease the Brexit vote, the Tories should hoover up a lot of the UKIP vote. I expect the Tories will go for a pro Brexit leader because of this point and I expect that party to accept the referendum result and support a changed path for the country.
Back to the Labour issue. If there are so many anti-socialist (small state) centralists in their ranks, the right thing for them to do is make a statement and defect to the Liberal Democrats. Coalitions are the only future for the left anyway, so the left needs to stop thinking in terms of outright majorities. The way England and Wales are carved up politically now, many of the swing seats are Labour Vs UKIP and Tory Vs Lib Dem.
Taunton Blue Genie
29-06-16, 11:56
The only surprising thing about this is that people are surprised, then again....
A lot of people didn't really know what they were voting for.
A lot of people didn't really know what they were voting for.
And to be fair, I believe that applies to both sides of the debate
steve davies
29-06-16, 12:22
And to be fair, I believe that applies to both sides of the debate
I dont know if that TV debate the one with nicola and boris in with their female cronies had anything to do with it but the one particular brexit woman spoke well and sensibly about the issues wheras one of the women on nicolas remain team seemed only intent on insulting boris and probably made the remain team look like a group of bullies with no decent arguments.
I think that particular evening started the tide going the other way along with corbyns virtual non participation in the remain camp which dident guide labour voters the way there were intended to be guided.
enter the millions of sun readers guided by murdoch and there was the final nail.
Blue in the Face
29-06-16, 12:32
Why is the labour party splitting a bad thing? (from a left or a central position)
The left and the centre must think in terms of coalitions. Give all factions a voice I say, socialists and centralists. Let the TUC have their voice and power with one faction and let the others defect. The whole Labour party is a very unhappy marriage anyway. End the "wasted vote" factor at the ballot box. Both the Lib Dems and Labour need to set out in their manifestos, they they would only be prepared to get into coalitions with each other. Coalitions are the only future for the left and the centre.
Eric the Half a Bee
29-06-16, 12:34
The way it is working out the Labour party is in real danger of splitting into 2 parties - the socialist left version of Corbyn and the other lot that are more towards the centre ground - basically where the Lib Dems used to be - before they disappeared up Nick Cleggs bottom.
The next General Election (guessing in November) there will be one of the parties if not a few of them that will have a REMAIN element to their manifesto promise or there will be a manifesto promise re immigration levels / free trade area. The EU will also amend their policy to reflect the growing concerns of other countries and the infrastructure costs associated with it.
If the dont the EU - like the Labour party are finished, and the SNP will be the official opposition.
You've forgotten that the Tories are also in turmoil and the backstabbing amongst its mps will be even more spectacular then. I believe that opinion polls for a possible election later in the year are utterly worthless at the moment and it's impossible to predict what will happen.
You've forgotten that the Tories are also in turmoil and the backstabbing amongst its mps will be even more spectacular then. I believe that opinion polls for a possible election later in the year are utterly worthless at the moment and it's impossible to predict what will happen.
This, also believe that the public are a little more cagey now in what they tell pollsters.
Thoughtful posts in this thread but I have to say nobody (including the political protagonists) has any idea how all of this will play out.
The most interesting scenario for me is a realignment on the left and the right and some sort of vote where the central issue is in/out again. The most worrying thing is the vacuum being left by both major parties at the moment that it seems the vile UKIP lot are in prime position to fill.
Thoughtful posts in this thread but I have to say nobody (including the political protagonists) has any idea how all of this will play out.
The most interesting scenario for me is a realignment on the left and the right and some sort of vote where the central issue is in/out again. The most worrying thing is the vacuum being left by both major parties at the moment that it seems the vile UKIP lot are in prime position to fill.
It's mirrored the exit strategy of the Coalition pull out of IRAQ the 1st time, topple Saddam, leave and just let the country turn to rack and ruin, a pattern is emerging!!
It's mirrored the exit strategy of the Coalition pull out of IRAQ the 1st time, topple Saddam, leave and just let the country turn to rack and ruin, a pattern is emerging!!
Wasn't the second invasion the topple Saddam incarnation? No matter. Drawing on that analogy, the UK does have the advantage that there aren't oodles of spare guns hanging around and a disaffected and redundant army.
Today's bond market suggests a 10 year time horizon for this all to play out.
Eric - it's a strange set of affairs, and you are right no can predict what will happen - they can also forecast what the consequences will be if A or B happens. After all this, it seems to be that Labour have had much more damage done to them. The Tories have seemingly kept quiet and closed ranks so to speak.
If or rather when Corbyn is challenged on the Leadership - he has said he will stand again for leader, and he may get re elected by the membership of the party, whilst the rest of the PLP vote for someone else -this could go on and on and on - in the mean time the Tories try and get one with their leader election. Whether it's good or bad - the Tory way of doing it seems a lot less hassle.
Honestly, I think the only difference is the Tories are just ripping themselves apart behind closed doors. I watched PMQs this morning and I think you could see palpable relief in Cameron from knowing he doesn't have to deal with any of the BS any more from inside his own party.
Ed Miliband was just on TV calling for Corbyn to go. He never mentioned the fact that it was him who changed the criteria of those who were eligible vote for a new Labour leader, and without his meddling Corbyn would never have got in. Isn't it funny how politicians only like democracy when it does what they want.
life on mars
29-06-16, 17:07
A lot of people didn't really know what they were voting for.
I think this was an emotional backlash vote, triggered by a small band of bigots who used a single repeating issue that they knew would push a lot of people to the ballot box that normally stay home,if you say it enough times people believe it . A lot of people have been done up like a kipper ,by clever politics.
life on mars
29-06-16, 17:09
Ed Miliband was just on TV calling for Corbyn to go. He never mentioned the fact that it was him who changed the criteria of those who were eligible vote for a new Labour leader, and without his meddling Corbyn would never have got in. Isn't it funny how politicians only like democracy when it does what they want.
Perhaps he is a closet Tory , and its was organised to keep them in power , or someone wants the a party to snap in half .
I think this was an emotional backlash vote, triggered by a small band of bigots who used a single repeating issue that they knew would push a lot of people to the ballot box that normally stay home,if you say it enough times people believe it . A lot of people have been done up like a kipper ,by clever politics.
Done up by the Kippers?
At a time when Labour should be destroying the Tories they are destroying their own party. There is real danger here. UKIP could cause huge damage to Labour at the next election. If Corbyn goes they have to appoint a charismatic leader having had three successive duds. Forget where that politician is on the left or right of he party they have to be able to appeal to the country. If they get the next leader wrong they will be hammered in 2020
Blue in the Face
29-06-16, 19:05
Eric - it's a strange set of affairs, and you are right no can predict what will happen - they can also forecast what the consequences will be if A or B happens. After all this, it seems to be that Labour have had much more damage done to them. The Tories have seemingly kept quiet and closed ranks so to speak.
If or rather when Corbyn is challenged on the Leadership - he has said he will stand again for leader, and he may get re elected by the membership of the party, whilst the rest of the PLP vote for someone else -this could go on and on and on - in the mean time the Tories try and get one with their leader election. Whether it's good or bad - the Tory way of doing it seems a lot less hassle.
Tories seem to be more savvy in this era at avoiding bad spin. Though a lot of the reason for this is Uncle Rupert.
But case in point today - Cameron and his over earnest plea for Corbyn to quit "... not in my party's interest". A brilliant deflection to make sure the press talks about Corbyn and not him. Corbyn has been blamed a lot for the referendum and it's fall out, buy really the blame ought to land at No. 10
I'm actually not sure it's in the Tory's interest for Corbyn to stand down as we shouldn't forget, he's actually polling quite well considering how many enemies he has. But as stated abover we don't know what will happen and will have to wait and see how this plays out.
Wales-Bales
29-06-16, 19:21
Today's bond market suggests a 10 year time horizon for this all to play out.
The world has hardly progressed since 2008, so I don't think the referendum result is going to have much effect on what was always going to happen anyway, except that we can now be blamed for it, i.e. it was the stupid people what caused it, and nothing to do with the bankers and politicians!
Blue in the Face
29-06-16, 19:26
At a time when Labour should be destroying the Tories they are destroying their own party. There is real danger here. UKIP could cause huge damage to Labour at the next election. If Corbyn goes they have to appoint a charismatic leader having had three successive duds. Forget where that politician is on the left or right of he party they have to be able to appeal to the country. If they get the next leader wrong they will be hammered in 2020
If a clear and finalised plan on Europe isn't in place before the next election, UKIP will clean up I would imagine. It also forces the main two parties to appease the UKIP vote. Let's see who the Tory's appoint as leader.
The Lib Dems have promised to overturn the referendum descision. It's a smart play by them. The SNP will surely do the same. The Lib Dems may win some seats back on this (though not in south west England where they lost a load in the last general election).
Blue in the Face
29-06-16, 19:29
The world has hardly progressed since 2008, so I don't think the referendum result is going to have much effect on what was always going to happen anyway, except that we can now be blamed for it, i.e. it was the stupid people what caused it, and nothing to do with the bankers and politicians!
But our world I'm UK might change massively. All eyes now on the city in London and the banking and services industry.
Wales-Bales
29-06-16, 19:31
The Lib Dems have promised to overturn the referendum descision. It's a smart play by them.
It's a desperate play by them :hehe:
The world has hardly progressed since 2008, so I don't think the referendum result is going to have much effect on what was always going to happen anyway, except that we can now be blamed for it, i.e. it was the stupid people what caused it, and nothing to do with the bankers and politicians!
Where do you get that from? US GDP in real terms is now 10% higher than in 2008 and unemployment has fallen to below 5% from a high of above 10 during the cycle. I can dig out the UK figures and they will bear my point out. The world economy in general is much healthier than it was. Nobody is blaming anyone. I guess voters did the calculus that says limiting migration was worth plunging the UK into a recession.
But our world I'm UK might change massively. All eyes now on the city in London and the banking and services industry.
The City is off to Paris.
If a clear and finalised plan on Europe isn't in place before the next election, UKIP will clean up I would imagine. It also forces the main two parties to appease the UKIP vote. Let's see who the Tory's appoint as leader.
The Lib Dems have promised to overturn the referendum descision. It's a smart play by them. The SNP will surely do the same. The Lib Dems may win some seats back on this (though not in south west England where they lost a load in the last general election).
What about a scenario where the Tories and UKIP compete for the UKIP vote and the left of centre parties (minus Jezza' SWP) form a coalition to stand on a platform of rejoining the EU? Splitting the anti vote could be very fruitful. Just dreaming.
Organ Morgan.
29-06-16, 23:10
US GDP and unemployment numbers are fiddled no end, just like their inflation numbers are. I mean, how can you obtain an accurate CPI number when the essentials, food and energy, are not part of the equation? Obviously, such a manipulated inflation number directly impacts the GDP number, and as for the unemployment number, I won't bore you with their birth/death model. More than 90 million Yanks of working age are not employed. The labour participation rate is 62%, and yet, magically, their unemployment count is under 5%. Any government can produce a similar figure provided they find enough ways not to count the jobless.
US GDP and unemployment numbers are fiddled no end, just like their inflation numbers are. I mean, how can you obtain an accurate CPI number when the essentials, food and energy, are not part of the equation? Obviously, such a manipulated inflation number directly impacts the GDP number, and as for the unemployment number, I won't bore you with their birth/death model. More than 90 million Yanks of working age are not employed. The labour participation rate is 62%, and yet, magically, their unemployment count is under 5%. Any government can produce a similar figure provided they find enough ways not to count the jobless.
OK. Why didn't they bother "fiddling" the figures when unemployment rose and growth was negative? Just curious.
Wales-Bales
30-06-16, 09:29
Like it or not - The Brexit win was down to controlled migration - it certainly wasnt down to the economics of it. If all was even - then the Govt need to deliver on that mandate - I wonder if this is why Gove has just declared he is running for the leadership :sherlock:
It seems whatever **** up Labour manage to pull off , the Tories are trying desperately to keep up with them
They are also playing down the sovereignty issue, but most people I know voted leave because they didn't want to be ruled by Brussels, and we all know that immigration is the much better tool for discrediting the Brexiters.
Hence lot's of media stories about violence towards immigrants and people wearing safety-pins. It pays to follow the media narrative, as they signpost you towards what you should be thinking.
They are also playing down the sovereignty issue, but most people I know voted leave because they didn't want to be ruled by Brussels, and we all know that immigration is the much better tool for discrediting the Brexiters.
Hence lot's of media stories about violence towards immigrants and people wearing safety-pins. It pays to follow the media narrative, as they signpost you towards what you should be thinking.
There HAS been a rise in racist incidents though, that is why it is being reported or don't you think that is newsworthy?
Of course not everyone was motivated by immigration perhaps when other groups of voters start verbally abusing people then they'll make the news too.
The suggestion though that there is a big media conspiracy to discredit brexit voters is frankly ludicrous. Huge sections of the media were rabidly supporting brexit
Organ Morgan.
30-06-16, 14:04
OK. Why didn't they bother "fiddling" the figures when unemployment rose and growth was negative? Just curious.
The fiddling is endemic and constant. John Williams is the most respected economist who provides alternative data. Here's his site: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data According to his calculations US GDP has been permanently negative since 2004.
The fiddling is endemic and constant. John Williams is the most respected economist who provides alternative data. Here's his site: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data According to his calculations US GDP has been permanently negative since 2004.
OMG Walter Williams? Good luck with his right wing fantasies. He has zero credibility. He is also just posting a lot of govt data directly from the BLS.
Wales-Bales
30-06-16, 18:02
There HAS been a rise in racist incidents though, that is why it is being reported or don't you think that is newsworthy?
Of course not everyone was motivated by immigration perhaps when other groups of voters start verbally abusing people then they'll make the news too.
The suggestion though that there is a big media conspiracy to discredit brexit voters is frankly ludicrous. Huge sections of the media were rabidly supporting brexit
If you believe everything that the media has to say then what you say is entirely correct :thumbup:
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