View Full Version : Will New Trade Deal Come With New Referendum
life on mars
17-07-16, 18:52
Does anyone belive that any new trade deal will not come with a commitment to accept migrant labour movement between the countries, if so will we see a new referendum to exit the rest of the world.
Blue in the Face
18-07-16, 09:39
It seems a mighty dangerous and unsettling thing to have offered a referendum built on nonsense from all sides promising changes that just cannot happen.
What use is a referendum if there is no leeway to change things anyway?
life on mars
18-07-16, 10:30
It seems a mighty dangerous and unsettling thing to have offered a referendum built on nonsense from all sides promising changes that just cannot happen.
What use is a referendum if there is no leeway to change things anyway?
Indeed, what we will now see is Commonwealth migrants instead of European, one thing I can guarantee is we still have migrants and immigration, cant wait for Boris's first defense of the figures as Foreign Secretary , as a London mayor he fully knows that large cities cannot operate without migrants .
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/21/may-gets-hollande-ultimatum-free-trade-depends-on-free-movement
Shocker!!
"Hollande’s comments suggest it will be difficult for the UK to fulfil the desire of Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, and other prominent leave figures during the referendum campaign, who favoured access to the single market while imposing limits on immigration."
Brexit did not mean (I think) the end of immigration - obviously - just the end of uncontrolled immigration, there is nothing wrong with that - otherwise we could all up sticks and move to Canada, Australia, New Zealand, why dont we get rid of all borders everywhere and we can go wherever we want ffs
When was immigration uncontrolled?
Free movement of workers is a fundamental principle of the Treaty in Article 45 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union and developed by EU secondary legislation and the Case law of the Court of Justice. EU citizens are entitled to: look for a job in another EU country.
Brexiters should note that the total number of EU citizens living in another EU from where they were born is 2.4% of the EU population - so I have read. However NET EU immigration of 180k a year sounds a lot, especially when you had on the remaining amount from controlled immigration from outside the EU bring the figure up to 330k a year.
One man's large stat is another man's small percentage.
My point was that in the UK Immigration IS Controlled.
Non EEA citizens need a visa, admittedly EEA citizens don't, but we still have passport control.
As the UK never signed up to Schengen it had never lost control of its borders anyway.
Why do you think you pass border controls on leaving and returning to the UK ?
Just one of the " Leave " big lies.
As the UK never signed up to Schengen it had never lost control of its borders anyway.
Why do you think you pass border controls on leaving and returning to the UK ?
Just one of the " Leave " big lies.
Exactly, I've given up trying to correct those who say we had (or still have) uncontrolled immigration.
Anyone who has an EU passport can come and work / live in the UK. Passport control is used (believe it or not) to check your passport and see if it says you have been a naughty boy - and that check doesnt always work either
Is that what uncontrolled immigration is to you?
life on mars
24-07-16, 19:28
As the UK never signed up to Schengen it had never lost control of its borders anyway.
Why do you think you pass border controls on leaving and returning to the UK ?
Just one of the " Leave " big lies.
It wasn't a lie, it was a con, and the leave campaign used immigrants as there flag pole fear message, once the other arguements were losses.
Barry Dragon
28-07-16, 09:43
May believes, probably rightly so, that the vote out was a clear democratic wish to stop the free movement of people. So I cant see the free movement of people being agreed, even though european nations say it must be. I know they have little interest in democratic voices. But I Can't see MAy backing down.
There will be a quasi free trade agreement, which will be somewhere between free trade, and the normal trade agreements. And there will be some free movement of europeans, but limited work access.
Barry Dragon
28-07-16, 09:46
My point was that in the UK Immigration IS Controlled.
Non EEA citizens need a visa, admittedly EEA citizens don't, but we still have passport control.
But EU movement was not controlled. AND NonEU citizens from within the EU could still freely move, and work as an EU citizen because some other country on different principles to what we would apply.
500,000 new people a year is uncontrolled. I struggle to see how you could see that as controlled migration?
But EU movement was not controlled. AND NonEU citizens from within the EU could still freely move, and work as an EU citizen because some other country on different principles to what we would apply.
500,000 new people a year is uncontrolled. I struggle to see how you could see that as controlled migration?
EU citizens could only stay in the UK after three months if they were a student, had a job, were being supported by someone or apply for an extension as a job seeker.
The 2015 International Passenger Survey (dudes with clipboards in airports) found that 41% of EU migrants came because they had a job and 32% came to look for work (a further 15% studying).
The UK Labour Force survey says that of around 3m EU migrants in the UK, 2.15m are working (which excludes self employment).
In short, far from being uncontrolled, the vast majority have come to the UK because we need them.
jackrabbit
28-07-16, 21:00
"Far from retreating into isolation, the UK economy now looks more open than ever. It is gradually dawning on all but the most stubborn in the Remain camp that the world still wants to do business with an independent UK — and that, freed from having to tag along with EU trade deals, this country is now able to negotiate mutually favourable arrangements with fast-growing economies such as India and China. Meanwhile, the EU’s problems continue. Standard and Poor’s, one of the world’s top credit ratings agencies, warned recently that the EU is ‘unsustainable in its current form’.
This is precisely the concern that persuaded 52 per cent of Brits that our long-term future is best served outside the EU. Nobody doubted that economic turbulence would follow, but the case for optimism far outweighs the case for pessimism. Brexit is neither an economic drag nor a stimulus: it is simply the removal of a constraint. What Britain now goes on to achieve depends entirely on the vision and ambition of those in power. Politicians and businesses should snap out of their sulk, and see Brexit for what it is: the greatest opportunity ever handed to a government by an electorate." The Spectator
Spot on. Time for all Remnants to stop whinging and just let's make use of this great opportunity. We're free of the dead hand of the EU. Cause for celebration if ever there was one.
Barry Dragon
29-07-16, 07:52
EU citizens could only stay in the UK after three months if they were a student, had a job, were being supported by someone or apply for an extension as a job seeker.
The 2015 International Passenger Survey (dudes with clipboards in airports) found that 41% of EU migrants came because they had a job and 32% came to look for work (a further 15% studying).
The UK Labour Force survey says that of around 3m EU migrants in the UK, 2.15m are working (which excludes self employment).
In short, far from being uncontrolled, the vast majority have come to the UK because we need them.
And thats still uncontrolled even having a job. The reason why we are the only major economy to have wages falling in the last decade is the 2million people that have come here to work, and keep our wages suppressed.
Our wages have (under 1 measure that is not wholly accurate) fallen by nearly 10%, whilst germany have risen 10%.
Yes some migration is needed and will always be needed, but the sheer numbers have simply been considerably more than is required, and the average working person has paid for it. Missing out on some £4,000 in wages.
They have not come because we need them, they have come because they need us. We need a tiny number of the migrants that have actually come.
And thats still uncontrolled even having a job. The reason why we are the only major economy to have wages falling in the last decade is the 2million people that have come here to work, and keep our wages suppressed.
Our wages have (under 1 measure that is not wholly accurate) fallen by nearly 10%, whilst germany have risen 10%.
Yes some migration is needed and will always be needed, but the sheer numbers have simply been considerably more than is required, and the average working person has paid for it. Missing out on some £4,000 in wages.
They have not come because we need them, they have come because they need us. We need a tiny number of the migrants that have actually come.
But Germany are under the same migration rules as us? Even more 'uncontrolled', if you insist on using the word wrongly.
So I'm a little confused how this can be the reason our wages are down and theirs are up. I'm sure you can help me out.
Can you link me to the 4 grand stat please? Ta in advance.
Barry Dragon
29-07-16, 10:06
Can you link me to the 4 grand stat please? Ta in advance.
Simple maths. lost 10%, when we could of gained 10%, so assuming a 20% rise in average wage. Which is £24k here in Wales, £28 across the UK, gives you £4,800 and £5,400. Put a little less than the calculated figure as its a bit of a generalisation But when you take into account we had less austerity than the EU, we have a stronger recovery than any of the european nations, and employment levels are high, it would suggest that 2m cheap labour individuals coming in has suppressed wages significantly.
Simple maths. lost 10%, when we could of gained 10%, so assuming a 20% rise in average wage. Which is £24k here in Wales, £28 across the UK, gives you £4,800 and £5,400. Put a little less than the calculated figure as its a bit of a generalisation But when you take into account we had less austerity than the EU, we have a stronger recovery than any of the european nations, and employment levels are high, it would suggest that 2m cheap labour individuals coming in has suppressed wages significantly.
This just doesn't make sense. If you're assuming that 99.9% of EU workers in the UK are cheap labour (which common sense and experience should tell you is miles from the truth), then you need to be looking at that area of wage and not average.
And this one factor really doesn't explain why UK wages should drop when the same factor affects Germany and they've seen a rise (by your figures). That should again tell you that the reason is elsewhere.
Eric Cartman
29-07-16, 16:02
Wages rise in Germany, wages fall in uk, Germany has higher immigration than uk.
= Blame immigration for wages falling in uk.
Baffling. Broken record.
Barry Dragon
29-07-16, 18:21
Germany has only had higher immigration for 1 year. We had higher immigration for 6 years previous.
Germany has only had higher immigration for 1 year. We had higher immigration for 6 years previous.
Haa Germany had no immigration? Still waiting for an explanation as to why immigration makes our wages fall when it makes german wages rise.
When I studied research/stats in the very first lesson we were told correlation does not mean causation. That certainly comes to mind in this thread.
Eric Cartman
29-07-16, 22:24
Germany has only had higher immigration for 1 year. We had higher immigration for 6 years previous.
I don't think that is true either, do you just make this stuff up on the spot?
Eric Cartman
29-07-16, 22:30
I am pretty sure net migration to Germany has been higher for at least the last 3 years, in 2014 I am pretty sure it was significantly higher and obviously in 2015.
There is a higher percentage of foreign nationals living in Germany than the UK.
I don't think that is true either, do you just make this stuff up on the spot?
Thing is, 'higher immigration' could mean anything. It could be a number or percentage comparison with each other, it could be a comparison with itself of the previous year. It could mean compared to the eu average.
It wasn't a lie, it was a con, and the leave campaign used immigrants as there flag pole fear message, once the other arguements were losses.
What is the difference between a " lie " and a " con " ? In my book they are both the same.
Brexit campaigners were lying con artists.
life on mars
31-07-16, 07:37
What is the difference between a " lie " and a " con " ? In my book they are both the same.
Brexit campaigners were lying con artists.
Indeed ,should imagine that sits with both sides ,just a play on words really, you only have to follow the threads to see how words and their interpretation becomes lost.
My point really was deals come with strings, most trade deals come with labour movement, we need trade and migrants, therefore we will see very little change in figures, I would be shocked if anyone gets extra wages because of brexit, in fact I can see a few of the European workers rights being stripped out.
I do wonder sometimes if this was the conspiracy to end conspiracies, Cameron involved, knew he was going anyway, reward Boris, allow May in , stop in their tracks Gove ,Farage , damage and exploit Labour with Jezzies light european views, allow UKIP to further damage Labour heartlands, force EU to change its policy to free movement.
There we have it politics at its best.
Organ Morgan.
31-07-16, 10:49
There's no great mystery why the majority who voted to leave did so, they were fed up with the way their communities were being transformed by mass immigration. Yes, both sides told fibs, but the remainers won the lie-o-meter competition by a light year. The biggest porkies of all were made by Cameron who stated several times that in the event of a leave vote the Article 50 notification would be sent immediately.
It'll never be triggered: so all fans of the supremacy of EU law, multiculturalism, sky-high house prices and rental, depressed wages, jam-packed hospitals and a fortnight's wait for a doctor's appointment can rest easy safe in the knowledge that things will stay the same in spite of all the fake theatre we will witness in the years ahead.
Croesy Blue
01-08-16, 16:14
But the stats have shown areas of lowest immigration voted leave whilst cities with lots of immigration voted remain?
Organ Morgan.
01-08-16, 18:26
With the exception of London, every region of England voted to exit. Wales did too. Northern Ireland voted to stay (border concerns) with Scotland (SNP still riding a wave, plus the Jocks are not that bright).
But the stats have shown areas of lowest immigration voted leave whilst cities with lots of immigration voted remain?
Maybe the areas with low immigration wanted to keep it that way?
Looking at some of the problems faced by areas of high immigration, it's not hard to see why.
Splott Dave
01-08-16, 20:49
But the stats have shown areas of lowest immigration voted leave whilst cities with lots of immigration voted remain?
Which would seem to indicate that immigration was a mainstream media issue and not one that people really took into consideration when deciding whether they wanted unaccountable, un-elected officials, deriving more and more power for themselves in the future.
Croesy Blue
01-08-16, 21:57
Maybe the areas with low immigration wanted to keep it that way?
Looking at some of the problems faced by areas of high immigration, it's not hard to see why.
What areas with high immigration have suffered? London, Manchester and Birmingham are in a better shape than they've ever been and have some of the highest immigration in the country.
In fact the big cities need immigration to carry on growing.
Splott Dave
01-08-16, 22:10
"Far from retreating into isolation, the UK economy now looks more open than ever. It is gradually dawning on all but the most stubborn in the Remain camp that the world still wants to do business with an independent UK — and that, freed from having to tag along with EU trade deals, this country is now able to negotiate mutually favourable arrangements with fast-growing economies such as India and China. Meanwhile, the EU’s problems continue. Standard and Poor’s, one of the world’s top credit ratings agencies, warned recently that the EU is ‘unsustainable in its current form’.
This is precisely the concern that persuaded 52 per cent of Brits that our long-term future is best served outside the EU. Nobody doubted that economic turbulence would follow, but the case for optimism far outweighs the case for pessimism. Brexit is neither an economic drag nor a stimulus: it is simply the removal of a constraint. What Britain now goes on to achieve depends entirely on the vision and ambition of those in power. Politicians and businesses should snap out of their sulk, and see Brexit for what it is: the greatest opportunity ever handed to a government by an electorate." The Spectator
Spot on. Time for all Remnants to stop whinging and just let's make use of this great opportunity. We're free of the dead hand of the EU. Cause for celebration if ever there was one.
Agreed. It's so obvious, I can't see why more people haven't woken up to it.
Barry Dragon
02-08-16, 07:54
But the stats have shown areas of lowest immigration voted leave whilst cities with lots of immigration voted remain?
Ofcourse they did. You are not going to expect those who immigrated to an area to vote leave, so its goes to say that its obvious those areas with immigrants in will have less people voting leave. Immigrants are not going to vote to kick themselves out.
Its a silly and obvious statistic.
And as was said, people without the immigration, may want to keep it that way.
Barry Dragon
02-08-16, 08:03
Thing is, 'higher immigration' could mean anything. It could be a number or percentage comparison with each other, it could be a comparison with itself of the previous year. It could mean compared to the eu average.
I meant higher immigration than us.
We have had massive levels of immigration for a decade, and high levels of immigration way before that.
Until recently (2013) Germany actually had a declining population (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2398796/German-population-shrinks-QUARTER-men-say-kids.html). Only the recent migrant influx (http://www.thelocal.de/20150924/migrants-spur-german-population-surge) has led to an icrease in population.
So to say Germany has had similar levels of immigration would be true for 1-2 years, but prior to that they had a shrinking population.
And if you cannot see how millions of cheap labour individuals reduces wages. Its a simply matter of supply and demand. We have managed to increase the number of jobs dramatically over the last few years (2 million jobs), but as we started at a high level of unemployment and had as many immigrants come to the UK, the supply of labour has increased faster than the demand for labour. This will suppress prices of labour(i.e. wages) down. And the largest effect is felt of the lowest paid.
A small caveat to that, is the highly skilled immigration can increase high wages for those around them.
So effectively, immigration makes the poor poorer and the rich richer.
Ofcourse they did. You are not going to expect those who immigrated to an area to vote leave, so its goes to say that its obvious those areas with immigrants in will have less people voting leave. Immigrants are not going to vote to kick themselves out.
Its a silly and obvious statistic.
And as was said, people without the immigration, may want to keep it that way.
Some Brits in Spain did vote Leave :hehe:
Eric Cartman
02-08-16, 13:02
Ofcourse they did. You are not going to expect those who immigrated to an area to vote leave, so its goes to say that its obvious those areas with immigrants in will have less people voting leave. Immigrants are not going to vote to kick themselves out.
Its a silly and obvious statistic.
And as was said, people without the immigration, may want to keep it that way.
When are we kicking all the immigrants out, have they set a date yet?
I meant higher immigration than us.
We have had massive levels of immigration for a decade, and high levels of immigration way before that.
Until recently (2013) Germany actually had a declining population (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2398796/German-population-shrinks-QUARTER-men-say-kids.html). Only the recent migrant influx (http://www.thelocal.de/20150924/migrants-spur-german-population-surge) has led to an icrease in population.
So to say Germany has had similar levels of immigration would be true for 1-2 years, but prior to that they had a shrinking population.
And if you cannot see how millions of cheap labour individuals reduces wages. Its a simply matter of supply and demand. We have managed to increase the number of jobs dramatically over the last few years (2 million jobs), but as we started at a high level of unemployment and had as many immigrants come to the UK, the supply of labour has increased faster than the demand for labour. This will suppress prices of labour(i.e. wages) down. And the largest effect is felt of the lowest paid.
A small caveat to that, is the highly skilled immigration can increase high wages for those around them.
So effectively, immigration makes the poor poorer and the rich richer.
How are you controlling for all the other differences between Germany and the UK?
Eric Cartman
02-08-16, 13:06
I meant higher immigration than us.
We have had massive levels of immigration for a decade, and high levels of immigration way before that.
Until recently (2013) Germany actually had a declining population (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2398796/German-population-shrinks-QUARTER-men-say-kids.html). Only the recent migrant influx (http://www.thelocal.de/20150924/migrants-spur-german-population-surge) has led to an icrease in population.
So to say Germany has had similar levels of immigration would be true for 1-2 years, but prior to that they had a shrinking population.
And if you cannot see how millions of cheap labour individuals reduces wages. Its a simply matter of supply and demand. We have managed to increase the number of jobs dramatically over the last few years (2 million jobs), but as we started at a high level of unemployment and had as many immigrants come to the UK, the supply of labour has increased faster than the demand for labour. This will suppress prices of labour(i.e. wages) down. And the largest effect is felt of the lowest paid.
A small caveat to that, is the highly skilled immigration can increase high wages for those around them.
So effectively, immigration makes the poor poorer and the rich richer.
All the studies I have ever read concluded that high levels of migration make the very poorest poorer and everyone else richer.
Eric Cartman
02-08-16, 13:13
What areas with high immigration have suffered? London, Manchester and Birmingham are in a better shape than they've ever been and have some of the highest immigration in the country.
In fact the big cities need immigration to carry on growing.
The majority of the problems associated with mass immigration are more attributable to a lack of foresight from local/national government than the migrants themselves.
Barry Dragon
02-08-16, 13:22
But Germany are under the same migration rules as us? Even more 'uncontrolled', if you insist on using the word wrongly.
So I'm a little confused how this can be the reason our wages are down and theirs are up. I'm sure you can help me out.
Wages rise in Germany, wages fall in uk, Germany has higher immigration than uk.
= Blame immigration for wages falling in uk.
Baffling. Broken record.
How are you controlling for all the other differences between Germany and the UK?
Please elaborate as to what areas.
Economies have differences, but markets in general work the same, whether its a labour markets or economic markets.
Barry Dragon
02-08-16, 13:24
When are we kicking all the immigrants out, have they set a date yet?
I very much doubt that happening, even with some far right morons thinking it would. There is no reason why anyone needs to be kicked out. Immigration will still continue, hopefully on a more needs based method than the simple open door policy.
Please elaborate as to what areas.
Economies have differences, but markets in general work the same, whether its a labour markets or economic markets.
What areas? Everything except for immigration. You're saying that if one factor was different, then the UK wouldn't have wages going down ("The reason why we are the only major economy to have wages falling in the last decade is the 2million people that have come here to work") so have you controlled for other factors?
Eric the Half a Bee
02-08-16, 20:09
why dont we get rid of all borders everywhere and we can go wherever we want ffs
What's wrong with that idea?
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