Richmond Park by-election

[itkman]

Sarah Olney wins the Richmond Park by-election on an anti-hard brexit campaign.

The tide is beginning to turn.

[Packerman]

Hardly surprising when Richmond voted 75,000 to 33,000 to remain in the referendum

[itkman]

Hardly surprising when Richmond voted 75,000 to 33,000 to remain in the referendum

No, but their views on this issue weren't represented in parliament, until now.

[CardiffIrish2]

No, but their views on this issue weren't represented in parliament, until now.

Whether it is BREXIT or not it's still himllarious that odious little **** has lost his seat and
made an arse of himself .

He looked genuinely upset too which is even better 😃😃😃😃

[LordKenwyne]

This changes..................nothing.

People are so OTT with their wording. "Odious".

What has Goldsmith done that is odious?. Apart from that media campaign to claim he was a raging xenephobe.

London voting liberal leaning politicians isn't really surprising is it?.

[goslow]

Labour lost their deposit :xmaswave:

[Wales-Bales]

No, but their views on this issue weren't represented in parliament, until now.
You mean parliant is full of hard Brexiters and Remainers? With the way things are dragging along, it would appear this anti-hard Brexit stance may be more common than you think.

[Barry Dragon]

No, but their views on this issue weren't represented in parliament, until now.

Its too late, the Brexit vote has happened.

[Taunton Blue Genie]

This changes..................nothing.

People are so OTT with their wording. "Odious".

What has Goldsmith done that is odious?. Apart from that media campaign to claim he was a raging xenephobe.

London voting liberal leaning politicians isn't really surprising is it?.

I remember the spelling Nazis on here when I called him a raging xylophone.

[jon1959]

Labour lost their deposit :xmaswave:

Not really a surprise. Tactical voting in a former Lib Dem seat.

By the way, I can recommend the books by the Labour candidate Christian Woolmer on British railways. 'Fire & Steam' is fascinating, especially the early chapters on the navvies who built the railways, tunnels and bridges. Most came from Ireland, Scotland, Lancashire or Yorkshire and lived in labouring clans that were hard as nails, wore fancy clothes (hats, waistcoats and boots) and on average drank 8 pints of beer a day. They also died young.

[Heathblue]

Sarah Olney wins the Richmond Park by-election on an anti-hard brexit campaign.

The tide is beginning to turn.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rn3vuKEgTbs

[Bluebird since 1948]

Little Timmy Farron has got the breath back in his lungs today claiming this is some kind of political awakening, maybe among the liberal elites that live in leafy Richmond but the rest of the country are fully behind Brexit. I am pro Brexit and pro Heathrow expansion, Goldsmith lost his seat due to some absurd publicity stunt. In both the last GE he stood on an anti expansion ticket and won both. When all the other candidates agree with him on Heathrow of course they are going to look at other differences and his stance on Brexit and his doomed mayoral campaign were a manna from heaven for the LDs.

Olney said that all remain voting areas should have remain voting MPs. I quite agree, it means Timmy Farron and Clegg would lose their seats plus a high number of Labour MPs and Brexit would be sure to sail through.

Timmy Farron earlier - "This result shows Brexit is not inevitable". How deluded.

[Eric Cartman]

Little Timmy Farron has got the breath back in his lungs today claiming this is some kind of political awakening, maybe among the liberal elites that live in leafy Richmond but the rest of the country are fully behind Brexit.

You make it sound like the 48% all live in Richmond.

[Bluebird since 1948]

You make it sound like the 48% all live in Richmond.

Generally speaking the 48% live in areas like Richmond, outside of Scotland. I have no problem with the 48% having a say in Brexit, I have a problem with them trying to stop it from happening.

[goslow]

Not really a surprise. Tactical voting in a former Lib Dem seat.

By the way, I can recommend the books by the Labour candidate Christian Woolmer on British railways. 'Fire & Steam' is fascinating, especially the early chapters on the navvies who built the railways, tunnels and bridges. Most came from Ireland, Scotland, Lancashire or Yorkshire and lived in labouring clans that were hard as nails, wore fancy clothes (hats, waistcoats and boots) and on average drank 8 pints of beer a day. They also died young.


They drank beer because the water would kill them.

[goslow]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rn3vuKEgTbs


A quick retreat to her safe space :xmashehe:

[jon1959]

They drank beer because the water would kill them.

Partly true. The other reason was that for a lot of them half their 'wages' were paid in company beer!

[jon1959]

Little Timmy Farron has got the breath back in his lungs today claiming this is some kind of political awakening, maybe among the liberal elites that live in leafy Richmond but the rest of the country are fully behind Brexit. I am pro Brexit and pro Heathrow expansion, Goldsmith lost his seat due to some absurd publicity stunt. In both the last GE he stood on an anti expansion ticket and won both. When all the other candidates agree with him on Heathrow of course they are going to look at other differences and his stance on Brexit and his doomed mayoral campaign were a manna from heaven for the LDs.

Olney said that all remain voting areas should have remain voting MPs. I quite agree, it means Timmy Farron and Clegg would lose their seats plus a high number of Labour MPs and Brexit would be sure to sail through.

Timmy Farron earlier - "This result shows Brexit is not inevitable". How deluded.

It depends on how you define 'area'. Sheffield narrowly voted 'leave' but Sheffield Hallam (Clegg's seat) was strong 'remain'.

[severncity]

Life imitating art?

1112

[Eric Cartman]

Generally speaking the 48% live in areas like Richmond, outside of Scotland. I have no problem with the 48% having a say in Brexit, I have a problem with them trying to stop it from happening.

That doesn't stand up to scrutiny, the 48% live all around the UK and consist of people from all walks of life - just like Leave voters.

[Bluebird since 1948]

That doesn't stand up to scrutiny, the 48% live all around the UK and consist of people from all walks of life - just like Leave voters.

"Generally speaking".

[severncity]

That doesn't stand up to scrutiny, the 48% live all around the UK and consist of people from all walks of life - just like Leave voters.

What is a "walk of life"?

This data clearly shows that the UK is divided between the working and work-less, the young and the old, white and black, working class and middle class, and between the university-educated and those who haven't had that privilege.
1113

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

[Eric Cartman]

"Generally speaking".

Well to you maybe life is simple, the 48% are all liberal elites who live in places like Richmond. Is stockport full of liberal elites? Leeds is packed full of liberal elites. Northern Ireland also? Even in Harlow, a place where a polish man was beaten to death for not speaking English just a few months after the vote, 31% voted remain, was that just the liberal elites too?

[Eric Cartman]

What is a "walk of life"?

This data clearly shows that the UK is divided between the working and work-less, the young and the old, white and black, working class and middle class, and between the university-educated and those who haven't had that privilege.
1113

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

Yeah divided but not the kind of whitewash being suggested by BS1948 by any stretch of the imagination. 'Generally speaking the 48% live in areas like Richmond' is clearly rubbish.

[the other bob wilson]

What is a "walk of life"?

This data clearly shows that the UK is divided between the working and work-less, the young and the old, white and black, working class and middle class, and between the university-educated and those who haven't had that privilege.
1113

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

What all of that data shows to me is that even in the so called smallest grouping (18 to 24 year olds who voted leave), more than one in four of those voting in that age group favoured leaving the EU. When you consider that twenty seven per cent is more than the party which has an overall majority in parliament currently got out of the eligible vote in the 2015 General Election, then the picture painted doesn't look quite as dramatic as you try to paint it - I'd be interested to see what a breakdown between the parties based on the groupings used there looked like after a closely fought General Election (e.g. 2010).

One thing the data shows absolutely clearly is that in all but one of the categories (the one I mentioned earlier) at least a third of those who voted did not go with the overall verdict for their grouping. Given that over thirty three and a half million people voted in the referendum, we have to be talking about very significant numbers who voted against the grain so to speak in their grouping, so I think it's entirely reasonable to argue that people from "all walks of life" voted for both sides - it's certainly more reasonable than the assertion that all of those who voted remain were "generally speaking" from places like Richmond.

Finally I couldn't help but note the interesting use of language in the analysis of figures you provided where it says "Among private renters and people with mortgages, a small majority (55% and 54%) voted to remain". While it's true that the majorities involved there were on the smallish side, they were a fair bit bigger than the one in the overall referendum and, yet, increasingly, I hear leave voters arguing that there is a clear majority for the version of Brexit they favour - there is no evidence at all that this is true.

[Wales-Bales]

I would also add the the younger voters have probably been exposed to some sort of pro EU propaganda while at school.

[Bluebird since 1948]

Yeah divided but not the kind of whitewash being suggested by BS1948 by any stretch of the imagination. 'Generally speaking the 48% live in areas like Richmond' is clearly rubbish.

Perhaps I shouldn't have specified individuals but areas. In England and Wales the more middles class, urban areas voted to remain and the poorer post industrial areas voted to leave. Places like Richmond voted to remain whereas places like Romford voted to leave. Both suburbs of London but have very different socio-economic make up. There are the odd exceptions off course but the poorest constituencies voted to leave and the richest to remain.

Just another point for discussion, do any of you agree with me that Brexit is the best thing to ever happen to the Lib Dems? If we had voted to remain what the hell would they be talking about now? Brexit has given them a new burst of life and although I find him frustrating and hopelessly deluded Timmy Farron has really put them back on the political map.

[life on mars]

I would consider the poor Labour vote more than just tactical, they have not lost a deposit in that area for quite a while..

Another by election soon.

[the other bob wilson]

I would consider the poor Labour vote more than just tactical, they have not lost a deposit in that area for quite a while..

Another by election soon.

I disagree, there are plenty of reasons for pessimism among Labour supporters (not sure I put myself in that category these days) currently, but a lost deposit at Richmond under the circumstances of this particular by election is one of them.

[surge]

Watch ALL of this. If you want to see the UTTER hypocrisy of a Lib Dem remain supporter - then here it is. In under 4 minutes the new MP completely and utterly shows herself for what she is

Very, very inexperienced. Zach Goldsmith would have been able to accommodate the difficult question far better but then he ran a hateful campaign to become mayor and didn't represent the majority of his constituency in the referendum.

The Leave Campaign's defence seems to be that the Remain Campaign set out what Leave would mean and thus Leave vote was informed and the process and negotiations do not need to be commented on further.

I just don't think this washes. The Leave campaign stated time and again that the remain campaign's proposal for leaving was "project fear", as leaving went from being a serious hit to our economy to the start of WWIII, and that they wouldn't comment on which trade agreement would be modeled upon because the UK would have "The British Model". Yanis Varoufakis stated that there was no precedent for the UK leaving the EU and yet still no one asked how the varied response to "why do you want leave?" would build into a negotiating platform or the process for building that platform in the first place. I don't think you can use the range of possible consequences as stated by the opposing argument as justification for not having your own set out idea during the referendum and seemingly still not having one today. Beyond "Brexit means Brexit" of course.

How many voted for a "hard brexit"? Even if it is the majority of teh majority then that could still be the minority of the country. This government has the difficult position of speaking for 100% of those who voted (and those who didn't or couldn't) but there seems to be a real risk that they intend to only speak to those who favoured a UKIP version of Brexit....except UKIP MEP's are saying the government looks as if it intends to go too far right.

This has been a referendum of double think where politicians became friends with traditional enemies, MP's opinions changed (or voices raised/lowered) based on what they thought would put them into the best position in the long run and reasons for voting out of the EU (unrestricted control etc.) was spoken out against in the Scottish referendum, for in the UK referendum and now against again in the aftermath (British courts for British law seems now to be British courts are filled with pro-EU Brits and therefore cannot be trusted). The Lib Dems position is not the only example of double think so this radio interview should not be damning to their position, although it still needs thinking upon.

I don't know if anything can be done for this decision, but in any future referendum decisions someone must ask (and be answered) about how the country will come back together and if needs be the process for deciding how the decision will be made and what that process should lead to.

The Leave campaign was ultimately that the end of the leave process the UK would be in a stronger position than if it stayed in and the majority agreed with that, for one reason or another. But we always needed to go through a process to get there and this time-consuming debate is part of that.

[tommy31]

I disagree, there are plenty of reasons for pessimism among Labour supporters (not sure I put myself in that category these days) currently, but a lost deposit at Richmond under the circumstances of this particular by election is one of them.

Labour got less votes in Richmond than they have members there :xmashehe:

[Eric Cartman]

Perhaps I shouldn't have specified individuals but areas. In England and Wales the more middles class, urban areas voted to remain and the poorer post industrial areas voted to leave. Places like Richmond voted to remain whereas places like Romford voted to leave. Both suburbs of London but have very different socio-economic make up. There are the odd exceptions off course but the poorest constituencies voted to leave and the richest to remain.

Just another point for discussion, do any of you agree with me that Brexit is the best thing to ever happen to the Lib Dems? If we had voted to remain what the hell would they be talking about now? Brexit has given them a new burst of life and although I find him frustrating and hopelessly deluded Timmy Farron has really put them back on the political map.

You are still missing the point though. I have said all along has been that even in really strong leave/remain areas, 30% of people have voted the other way.

Yes the Lib Dems have been given an open goal really. Labour cant touch it because their potential vote is so split between leave/remain. Tories become the party of Hard Brexit, Lib Dems become the party of 'Remain', UKIP moan about the government and Labour hide in the middle somewhere trying not to upset people.

[life on mars]

Labour got less votes in Richmond than they have members there :xmashehe:

Now that does take some doing ,not even all there members bothered to vote ,priceless and bizarre , the last election saw them poll about 7,500 so quite a dip ,need Jon Snow and his swingometer to see what this means .

Next comes Sleaford

2015 Result :
Conservative Stephen Phillips 34,805
Labour Jason Pandya-Wood 10,690
UKIP Steven Hopkins 9,716
Liberal Democrat Matthew Holden 3,500
Lincolnshire Independents Marianne Overton 3,233

[Bluebird since 1948]

Now that does take some doing ,not even all there members bothered to vote ,priceless and bizarre , the last election saw them poll about 7,500 so quite a dip ,need Jon Snow and his swingometer to see what this means .

Next comes Sleaford

2015 Result :
Conservative Stephen Phillips 34,805
Labour Jason Pandya-Wood 10,690
UKIP Steven Hopkins 9,716
Liberal Democrat Matthew Holden 3,500
Lincolnshire Independents Marianne Overton 3,233

This one is interesting. Cons will win but would be good to see how the UKIP vote holds up. Let's see if the LD resurgence can be replicated in leave voting areas, whether they can hoover up the middle class liberal remain vote ahead of Labour. LDs aren't going to win here but a strong increase in their vote will be a far more positive sign for them than winning Richmond. Beating Labour into fourth would be a great result for them and spell disaster for Corbyn.

[life on mars]

I would have a guess the Tories vote wont be affected and will probably increase by taking some of the UKIP vote.
Conversely I think a lot of the Labour vote will transfer to UKIP.
Lib Dems and Lab to to the hit

I fancy the result something like :

Conservative 20,000
UKIP 18,000
Liberals 7,500
Labour 5,000

[Bluebird since 1948]

I fancy the result something like :

Conservative 20,000
UKIP 18,000
Liberals 7,500
Labour 5,000

Better to do make predictions with percentages rather than number of votes. Turnout will be low.

[Wales-Bales]

Green Party denies taking £250,000 'bribe' in return for supporting Lib Dems in Richmond Park by-election

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/green-party-deny-bribe-liberal-democrats-richmond-park-sarah-olney-zac-goldsmith-a7458871.html

[Llanedeyrnblue]

I remember the spelling Nazis on here when I called him a raging xylophone.

Did he strike a wrong chord?