Eric the Half a Bee
25-07-20, 20:33
There have been 198 playoff semi final ties since the start of the playoffs in 1987.
First leg results:
Home win - 73
Draw - 74
Away win - 51
Of the 73 sides that won the first leg at home, 53 qualified for the final, 20 missed out.
Of the 74 sides that drew, the home team won the 2nd leg 51 times, the away team 23.
Of the 51 sides that won away in the first leg, 43 made the final, 8 missed out.
No side has recovered from a 3 goal deficit. Only 4 out of 32 sides with a 2 goal deficit recovered. 24 out of 84 sides with a 1 goal deficit turned things around. 28 out of 124 sides who lost the first leg got to the final.
There have been 20 penalty shoot outs. 11 were won by the away side.
The last decade makes for interesting reading. I've done a comparison of 1987-2009 and 2010-19, using percentages.
Home advantage has mattered less. In the first leg, the percentage of home wins is similar during both periods, but away wins have gone up from 24.6% to 28.3%. This might suggest the higher placed playoff sides are doing better than before. Home advantage in the second leg has dropped, from a 58% win rate to 46.7% over the last decade.
Winning the first leg is even more important. Between 1987 and 2009, 74% of sides winning the first leg went on to win the tie. That stands at 85% for the last decade.
No side in the last decade has recovered a 2 goal deficit or worse.
Teams that win the first leg at home (so those in 5th or 6th or equivalent) have made the final 82% of the time in the last 10 years, up from 69% before. Of all teams winning at home in the first leg, only 36% have lost away from home in the second leg. Between 1987-2009, 55% of teams winning at home in the first leg lost the second. That suggests that the "favourites" at home in the second leg find it more difficult to chase a deficit than they used to. Away sides that win the first leg are less likely to qualify. After a draw in the first leg, the "favourites" win 68% of the time, down from 72% between 1987-2009.
All in all, having home advantage second matters less than it used to.
First leg results:
Home win - 73
Draw - 74
Away win - 51
Of the 73 sides that won the first leg at home, 53 qualified for the final, 20 missed out.
Of the 74 sides that drew, the home team won the 2nd leg 51 times, the away team 23.
Of the 51 sides that won away in the first leg, 43 made the final, 8 missed out.
No side has recovered from a 3 goal deficit. Only 4 out of 32 sides with a 2 goal deficit recovered. 24 out of 84 sides with a 1 goal deficit turned things around. 28 out of 124 sides who lost the first leg got to the final.
There have been 20 penalty shoot outs. 11 were won by the away side.
The last decade makes for interesting reading. I've done a comparison of 1987-2009 and 2010-19, using percentages.
Home advantage has mattered less. In the first leg, the percentage of home wins is similar during both periods, but away wins have gone up from 24.6% to 28.3%. This might suggest the higher placed playoff sides are doing better than before. Home advantage in the second leg has dropped, from a 58% win rate to 46.7% over the last decade.
Winning the first leg is even more important. Between 1987 and 2009, 74% of sides winning the first leg went on to win the tie. That stands at 85% for the last decade.
No side in the last decade has recovered a 2 goal deficit or worse.
Teams that win the first leg at home (so those in 5th or 6th or equivalent) have made the final 82% of the time in the last 10 years, up from 69% before. Of all teams winning at home in the first leg, only 36% have lost away from home in the second leg. Between 1987-2009, 55% of teams winning at home in the first leg lost the second. That suggests that the "favourites" at home in the second leg find it more difficult to chase a deficit than they used to. Away sides that win the first leg are less likely to qualify. After a draw in the first leg, the "favourites" win 68% of the time, down from 72% between 1987-2009.
All in all, having home advantage second matters less than it used to.