life on mars
29-09-20, 18:48
Yep it's cut and paste fascinating though :
Will Donald Trump claim victory even if he loses the election?
Trump enjoys stirring outrage and has done so repeatedly by suggesting he will respect the result only if he wins. He has suggested that if he is ahead on election night, he may declare victory without waiting for postal votes.
Is that not what usually happens?
Things are different this time. Due to the pandemic, a far greater proportion of votes will be cast by post. In many states, Democrats are twice as likely to vote by post as Republicans, raising the possibility that Trump could be ahead on election night but lose several days later in a “blue shift” when all the postal ballots are counted.
What would happen then?
Trump has claimed the postal ballot system is open to fraud, even though there is no evidence of this. He has suggested he will not recognise a result determined by postal votes. A fight will ensue with legal challenges proliferating in a battle reminiscent of the 2000 dispute between Al Gore and George W Bush that was settled by the Supreme Court. Democrats remain scarred by Gore’s swift concession and could fight on.
Will the court be dragged in again?
Possibly, but that might not resolve matters — so Congress may get involved. The electoral system allows 35 days for states to count votes. If neither candidate has conceded after that, Congress is obliged to accept the appointment of state electors, the 538 men and women who comprise the electoral college. These electors then typically pick a president based on the agreed ballot count from each state. If they cannot agree, electors could vote according to their party affiliations.
What’s the worst-case scenario?
Deadlock and chaos. The constitution says a president’s term expires at noon on January 20. But if the election result is still under dispute in Congress, an acting president could be appointed by the House of Representatives — possibly the Speaker, Nancy Pelosi — while the president of the Senate, vice-president Mike Pence, affirms Trump’s re-election.
Sounds like a recipe for civil war — is there a precedent?
Yes. In 1876, Democratic candidate Samuel Tilden won the popular vote against Republican Rutherford Hayes, but electoral votes for Tilden in four states were disputed. Florida and two others submitted results that declared both men winners. Congress set up a commission in January 1877 to resolve the matter. A compromise declared Hayes the winner on March 2, just days before the inauguration deadline in those days. He was sworn in behind closed doors to avoid the risk of an uprising.
Will Donald Trump claim victory even if he loses the election?
Trump enjoys stirring outrage and has done so repeatedly by suggesting he will respect the result only if he wins. He has suggested that if he is ahead on election night, he may declare victory without waiting for postal votes.
Is that not what usually happens?
Things are different this time. Due to the pandemic, a far greater proportion of votes will be cast by post. In many states, Democrats are twice as likely to vote by post as Republicans, raising the possibility that Trump could be ahead on election night but lose several days later in a “blue shift” when all the postal ballots are counted.
What would happen then?
Trump has claimed the postal ballot system is open to fraud, even though there is no evidence of this. He has suggested he will not recognise a result determined by postal votes. A fight will ensue with legal challenges proliferating in a battle reminiscent of the 2000 dispute between Al Gore and George W Bush that was settled by the Supreme Court. Democrats remain scarred by Gore’s swift concession and could fight on.
Will the court be dragged in again?
Possibly, but that might not resolve matters — so Congress may get involved. The electoral system allows 35 days for states to count votes. If neither candidate has conceded after that, Congress is obliged to accept the appointment of state electors, the 538 men and women who comprise the electoral college. These electors then typically pick a president based on the agreed ballot count from each state. If they cannot agree, electors could vote according to their party affiliations.
What’s the worst-case scenario?
Deadlock and chaos. The constitution says a president’s term expires at noon on January 20. But if the election result is still under dispute in Congress, an acting president could be appointed by the House of Representatives — possibly the Speaker, Nancy Pelosi — while the president of the Senate, vice-president Mike Pence, affirms Trump’s re-election.
Sounds like a recipe for civil war — is there a precedent?
Yes. In 1876, Democratic candidate Samuel Tilden won the popular vote against Republican Rutherford Hayes, but electoral votes for Tilden in four states were disputed. Florida and two others submitted results that declared both men winners. Congress set up a commission in January 1877 to resolve the matter. A compromise declared Hayes the winner on March 2, just days before the inauguration deadline in those days. He was sworn in behind closed doors to avoid the risk of an uprising.