View Full Version : The case against Ryan Allsop
Eric the Half a Bee
18-08-23, 20:55
Our resident messageboard comic, DML, recently commented that Allsop's goals conceded record was good (last season). I thought it was time to check that out.
Last season Allsop conceded 53 goals. Of all goalkeepers who played virtually a full season, that's the 6th worst record when you look at goals conceded per game or per 90 minutes.
Some claim that Allsop didn't make many saves, but he faced 142 shots on target and saved 64% of them. That's the 7th worst of all goalkeepers in the Championship last season and the worst of all who played virtually every game. His clean sheet percentage was 4th worst of all regular keepers in the Championship last season.
I'm not the greatest fan of xG stats but there is one interesting one regarding Allsop - post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed. In other words, how likely a goalkeeper is to save a shot with goals scored subtracted. A positive score means a goalkeeper has saved more shots that might have been expected to have gone in, a negative score means the opposite - they've let in more goals that should have been saved. Allsop, for the season, stands at -7.4, the third worst in the Championship. In other words, he's cost us 7.4 goals that normally would have been saved overall.
Some other stats regarding Allsop. There were 8 occasions where he made 4 or more saves in a game - we won 2 points. He made 7 saves at QPR but we lost 3-0. He made 5 at West Brom in a 0-0. He made 5 on two occasions against Millwall yet we lost both without scoring. In total, we won 3 and drew 4 of 23 games where he made 2 or more saves. I guess such is not surprising for a side finishing 21st in games where teams had plenty of shots on target against us. In all bar one of those 23 games he had a saving percentage of at least 50%.
There were 20 games where he made 1 or no saves at all. We won 9, drew 6 and lost 5. There were 12 games where he saved less than 2/3rds of all shots on target, drawing 3, losing 9. Of course, a lower save percentage could easily mean a team was just clinical on the day, like the 3-2 defeat at home to the Jacks, where they had 4 attempts on target and scored 3 - their second was saved by Allsop but the rebound found the net.
All in all, though, they're a poor set of statistics for a goalkeeper at this level.
The sky guy on the red button loved stats and would always mention how Allsops stats were the worst in the division. I don’t think he made a huge amount of mistakes but simply doesn’t save enough.
The in the know twitter people were going on for ages saying we weren’t signing a keeper this summer. I kept saying it’s obvious we would sign a keeper and if we didnt there would be huge question marks over bullut because it’s so obvious, they kept saying we aren’t looking for a keeper…. We signed a keeper.
to add to this, we can introduce the concept of post-shot Xg.
yes I can almost hear eyes rolling at that already, but bear with me.
so regular Xg is usually from where a shot is taken, how often does it result in a goal from there (+ some other contributory factors)
post shot xg just looks at the trajectory of the ball after it has been hit, so for a shot on target, how fast it is going, how much swerve , and where in the goal of is going to hit, how many shots like that typically get saved and how many are typically goals.
over the last 12 months, Ryan allsops post shot xg minus the number of goals he has conceded is significantly negative i.e. he has let in more than the average keeper in the population they are looking at: -0.3 goals per game on average.
that puts him in the 6th percentile of goalkeepers in similar levels for this metric. (i.e. 94 percent of the other keepers were better than him)
his save % was 62.1% of shots saved, which is the 4th percentile
and he stops 3.2% of crosses which is the 8th percentile
Des Parrot
19-08-23, 00:16
In my opinion his reactions are slow and he’s poor with shoots close. Not agile enough for me.
Carl Dale's Mole
19-08-23, 02:41
The problem is, in order to be a good shot stopper, you need to be good at stopping shots.
the other bob wilson
19-08-23, 04:20
In my opinion his reactions are slow and he’s poor with shoots close. Not agile enough for me.
I think that’s it - I still say Allsop didn’t make any howlers of the type Runnarson made against Man City, but there were no end of goals where I asked “could the keeper have done better there?”. I tend to be less quick to blame keepers than many, because it seems to me that they are expected to maintain far higher standards than outfield players, but there were too many of those could the keeper have done better moments with Allsop. I wasn’t expecting us to sign a keeper this so called summer, but, as I mentioned in another thread, I’m glad we have.
Allsop is a league one player at best, like most of the dross signed by Morison.
He just isn’t good enough for the Championship
WJ99mobile
19-08-23, 06:25
Allsop is a league one player at best, like most of the dross signed by Morison.
He just isn’t good enough for the Championship
So why was he so good for Derby
I don’t get it, he’s looked useless since being here but clearly had a bit of pedigree
Eric the Half a Bee
19-08-23, 06:58
So why was he so good for Derby
I don’t get it, he’s looked useless since being here but clearly had a bit of pedigree
He wasn't so good for Derby. His stats were slightly better than they were last season but that was in a side that would have comfortably avoided relegation without all the points deductions.
Here's one for everyone - Allsop's save percentage and "expected saves" stats last season were better than Alex Smithies and Dillon Phillips the season before.
Eric the Half a Bee
19-08-23, 07:03
to add to this, we can introduce the concept of post-shot Xg.
yes I can almost hear eyes rolling at that already, but bear with me.
so regular Xg is usually from where a shot is taken, how often does it result in a goal from there (+ some other contributory factors)
post shot xg just looks at the trajectory of the ball after it has been hit, so for a shot on target, how fast it is going, how much swerve , and where in the goal of is going to hit, how many shots like that typically get saved and how many are typically goals.
over the last 12 months, Ryan allsops post shot xg minus the number of goals he has conceded is significantly negative i.e. he has let in more than the average keeper in the population they are looking at: -0.3 goals per game on average.
that puts him in the 6th percentile of goalkeepers in similar levels for this metric. (i.e. 94 percent of the other keepers were better than him)
his save % was 62.1% of shots saved, which is the 4th percentile
and he stops 3.2% of crosses which is the 8th percentile
Alnwick got a rating of 1 for post shot xG against QPR. He saved 1, conceded 2 but was expected to have only conceded 1. The first goal he had no chance with but is xG claiming that he should have saved the second?
the other bob wilson
19-08-23, 07:14
Alnwick got a rating of 1 for post shot xG against QPR. He saved 1, conceded 2 but was expected to have only conceded 1. The first goal he had no chance with but is xG claiming that he should have saved the second?
What did I say about people expecting higher standards from keepers than they do from outfield players? Alnwick’s let in six in three games, but I wouldn’t blame him for any of them.
Alnwick got a rating of 1 for post shot xG against QPR. He saved 1, conceded 2 but was expected to have only conceded 1. The first goal he had no chance with but is xG claiming that he should have saved the second?
yes, the post shot xg is suggesting he should have done better for the second, which seemed harsh, I'll have to go and look at it again, maybe it was more centrally in the goal than it first seemed.
as with regular Xg, you aren't really supposed to place too much weight on individual shot xg , even individual game because small inconsistencies in the model can throw up spurious results, but over a slightly longer time frame (I've seen 9 games mentioned) these even out to give you a more accurate picture
completely ignoring that and going back to the QPR game, Begovic faced 2 post shot xg and conceded 1, and Alnwick faced 1 and let 2 in
Our resident messageboard comic, DML, recently commented that Allsop's goals conceded record was good (last season). I thought it was time to check that out.
Last season Allsop conceded 53 goals. Of all goalkeepers who played virtually a full season, that's the 6th worst record when you look at goals conceded per game or per 90 minutes.
Some claim that Allsop didn't make many saves, but he faced 142 shots on target and saved 64% of them. That's the 7th worst of all goalkeepers in the Championship last season and the worst of all who played virtually every game. His clean sheet percentage was 4th worst of all regular keepers in the Championship last season.
I'm not the greatest fan of xG stats but there is one interesting one regarding Allsop - post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed. In other words, how likely a goalkeeper is to save a shot with goals scored subtracted. A positive score means a goalkeeper has saved more shots that might have been expected to have gone in, a negative score means the opposite - they've let in more goals that should have been saved. Allsop, for the season, stands at -7.4, the third worst in the Championship. In other words, he's cost us 7.4 goals that normally would have been saved overall.
Some other stats regarding Allsop. There were 8 occasions where he made 4 or more saves in a game - we won 2 points. He made 7 saves at QPR but we lost 3-0. He made 5 at West Brom in a 0-0. He made 5 on two occasions against Millwall yet we lost both without scoring. In total, we won 3 and drew 4 of 23 games where he made 2 or more saves. I guess such is not surprising for a side finishing 21st in games where teams had plenty of shots on target against us. In all bar one of those 23 games he had a saving percentage of at least 50%.
There were 20 games where he made 1 or no saves at all. We won 9, drew 6 and lost 5. There were 12 games where he saved less than 2/3rds of all shots on target, drawing 3, losing 9. Of course, a lower save percentage could easily mean a team was just clinical on the day, like the 3-2 defeat at home to the Jacks, where they had 4 attempts on target and scored 3 - their second was saved by Allsop but the rebound found the net.
All in all, though, they're a poor set of statistics for a goalkeeper at this level.
Utter rubbish. Statistics can be manipulated to prove anything you like, to fit in with your campaign to get rid of Alsop and all this xG stuff is a load of guff. The fact that I look at is that we conceded 58 goals last season, which for a struggling team that finished in 21st place is excellent. Plus there were ten other teams that finished with the same or worse goals against record, including Swansea who finished in 10th place. Even Middlesborough, who finished 4th, shipped 56 goals. Alsop made a number of key saves, including a couple of penalties. The reason we nearly got relegated was therefore nothing to do with the defence or goalkeeper, it was because we only scored 41 goals, the second worst in the league. There is a strong argument therefore that if it wasn't for Alsop and the defence, we probably would have got relegated.
Anyway, now we have another keeper, who isn't a ‘shoe in’ for the team and we shall see what happens with Alsop. You can now shift your attention elsewhere in the squad and choose your next player to continually criticise and want rid of - enjoy.
Pedro de la Rosa
19-08-23, 08:18
Alnwick got a rating of 1 for post shot xG against QPR. He saved 1, conceded 2 but was expected to have only conceded 1. The first goal he had no chance with but is xG claiming that he should have saved the second?
XG is a lot of tosh, then.
I remember Kieffer Moore scored a tap in from a yard out and the xG was 0.67 :hehe:.
Alnwick also made a great save from Dykes’ header. I’m surprised we are signing a keeper after Alnwick’s start with our need for a centre half so great.
to add to this, we can introduce the concept of post-shot Xg.
yes I can almost hear eyes rolling at that already, but bear with me.
so regular Xg is usually from where a shot is taken, how often does it result in a goal from there (+ some other contributory factors)
post shot xg just looks at the trajectory of the ball after it has been hit, so for a shot on target, how fast it is going, how much swerve , and where in the goal of is going to hit, how many shots like that typically get saved and how many are typically goals.
over the last 12 months, Ryan allsops post shot xg minus the number of goals he has conceded is significantly negative i.e. he has let in more than the average keeper in the population they are looking at: -0.3 goals per game on average.
that puts him in the 6th percentile of goalkeepers in similar levels for this metric. (i.e. 94 percent of the other keepers were better than him)
his save % was 62.1% of shots saved, which is the 4th percentile
and he stops 3.2% of crosses which is the 8th percentile
Honestly, this is just gobble de gook and means absolutely nothing. A golden example of how mathematicians and scientists shouldn't get involved in a sport where there are so many variables.
Honestly, this is just gobble de gook and means absolutely nothing. A golden example of how mathematicians and scientists shouldn't get involved in a sport where there are so many variables.
it's fine if you do t understand it, or find it interesting, but every club is looking at this kind of thing, some spending millions on it
XG is a lot of tosh, then.
I remember Kieffer Moore scored a tap in from a yard out and the xG was 0.67 :hehe:.
Alnwick also made a great save from Dykes’ header. I’m surprised we are signing a keeper after Alnwick’s start with our need for a centre half so great.
Dykes doesn't seem to have registered a headed shot on target in the game according to the opta stats
Dykes doesn't seem to have registered a headed shot on target in the game according to the opta stats
guessing you mean the Steve cook header.
that did have a pretty low xg, which presumably means that headers are very rarely scored from that position, if he'd let that in then there would have been big questions as it was basically straight at him.
what he did do well is get good distance on the save to stop a follow up shot coming in (I think it went for a corner) which probably isn't reflected in the stats
The Lone Gunman
19-08-23, 09:47
Anyway, now we have another keeper, who isn't a ‘shoe in’ for the team and we shall see what happens with Alsop.
His name is Allsop, but you’re right - we’ll see what happens to him in due course.
Out of interest, why do you believe City have decided to bring in an another keeper? The club went with Allsop and Alnwick last season. Why do you reckon they’ve gone out and got a third first team keeper this time around?
I believe Bulut and his staff have assessed Allsop and Alnwick and quickly concluded that one (or maybe both) of them is not good enough.
Honestly, this is just gobble de gook and means absolutely nothing. A golden example of how mathematicians and scientists shouldn't get involved in a sport where there are so many variables.
Brentford supporters would probably disagree with you. I'd like to be in their position rather than hoping we won't be in another relegation scrap to avoid dropping into the third tier.
John Buchanan
19-08-23, 10:59
Honestly, this is just gobble de gook and means absolutely nothing. A golden example of how mathematicians and scientists shouldn't get involved in a sport where there are so many variables.
I 1+1 to the power of nd that comment.
Eric the Half a Bee
19-08-23, 13:28
Utter rubbish. Statistics can be manipulated to prove anything you like, to fit in with your campaign to get rid of Alsop and all this xG stuff is a load of guff. The fact that I look at is that we conceded 58 goals last season, which for a struggling team that finished in 21st place is excellent. Plus there were ten other teams that finished with the same or worse goals against record, including Swansea who finished in 10th place. Even Middlesborough, who finished 4th, shipped 56 goals. Alsop made a number of key saves, including a couple of penalties. The reason we nearly got relegated was therefore nothing to do with the defence or goalkeeper, it was because we only scored 41 goals, the second worst in the league. There is a strong argument therefore that if it wasn't for Alsop and the defence, we probably would have got relegated.
Anyway, now we have another keeper, who isn't a ‘shoe in’ for the team and we shall see what happens with Alsop. You can now shift your attention elsewhere in the squad and choose your next player to continually criticise and want rid of - enjoy.
You know that thing when you're the only one with a particular opinion, but everyone else is suggesting the opposite? You should be used to it on here by now.
Eric the Half a Bee
19-08-23, 13:41
Another interesting stat about our defence last season. Only Millwall, West Brom, Stoke, Burnley, Sheff Utd and Luton had less on target attempts on their goal last season. That suggests we were decent defensively yet we conceded more than any of them.
Jak Alnwick, case closed.
His name is Allsop, but you’re right - we’ll see what happens to him in due course.
Out of interest, why do you believe City have decided to bring in an another keeper? The club went with Allsop and Alnwick last season. Why do you reckon they’ve gone out and got a third first team keeper this time around?
I believe Bulut and his staff have assessed Allsop and Alnwick and quickly concluded that one (or maybe both) of them is not good enough.
If you want to start spell checking everything that people post, you will be here a rather long time correcting. Most people have better things to do. Plus what you believe and what is actually happening may of course not necessarily be the same thing. I know that might be a shock to you but there it is.
You know that thing when you're the only one with a particular opinion, but everyone else is suggesting the opposite? You should be used to it on here by now.
Everyone else ? Dont make me laugh. You have a very high opinion of yourself. It is a group of about 20 City slaggers on this board that have nothing better to do than continually run individual players down. Not representative of real opinion at all. Come back to me when you have a couple of thousand similar opinions and I might believe it.
His name is Allsop, but you’re right - we’ll see what happens to him in due course.
Out of interest, why do you believe City have decided to bring in an another keeper? The club went with Allsop and Alnwick last season. Why do you reckon they’ve gone out and got a third first team keeper this time around?
I believe Bulut and his staff have assessed Allsop and Alnwick and quickly concluded that one (or maybe both) of them is not good enough.
Selective quoting again I see. How about you look at what I said in the rest of my post about Allsop and give us your reasoned analysis on that, instead of asking silly questions that can only have hypothetical answers.
The Lone Gunman
19-08-23, 16:01
Selective quoting again I see. How about you look at what I said in the rest of my post about Allsop and give us your reasoned analysis on that, instead of asking silly questions that can only have hypothetical answers.
I think Allsop is poor by Championship standards. I think he might have played his last game for the club. I sincerely hope that’s the case as there’s nothing about his game I like. Hope that helps.
life on mars
19-08-23, 16:13
All our keepers are poor have been fir a while. We were blessed with very good keepers over the years .
To be fair it's an unforgiving position to play, others outfield players can make mistakes, if a keeper does it can be fatal and then your a kent
Eric the Half a Bee
19-08-23, 20:36
Selective quoting again I see. How about you look at what I said in the rest of my post about Allsop and give us your reasoned analysis on that, instead of asking silly questions that can only have hypothetical answers.
Certainly. Here's everything you've posted about Allsop with my own thoughts on them.
I look at is that we conceded 58 goals last season, which for a struggling team that finished in 21st place is excellent. Plus there were ten other teams that finished with the same or worse goals against record, including Swansea who finished in 10th place. Even Middlesborough, who finished 4th, shipped 56 goals.
You won't get any arguments from me on this. Only two sides in the history of the second tier when it has been 24 teams has finished 21st and conceded less than 58. In fact, only 6 sides in the 24-team second tier have been relegated conceding less. However, there's a distinction to be made between saying we had a good defence last season and saying we had a good defence for teams finishing 21st. In fact, over the last 30 years, 58 is the average number of goals scored or conceded in the Championship for each team, so in context, our defence was average last season by Championship standards.
Alsop made a number of key saves, including a couple of penalties.
Excellent. Doing his job then. His penalty save against Blackburn won us the points, though it was his foul in the first place that caused it. His other penalty save, at Luton, made no difference to the outcome as we lost 1-0. In the 12 games where we kept clean sheets, he didn't make a save in 4 of those games, made only 1 save in 5 of them but made 4 and 5 saves respectively against Coventry and West Brom, so 12 clean sheets but only 2 games where he made several saves. In games where goalkeepers make very few, if any saves, I'd assume that we got the defensive side of our game spot on. I'd put that down mainly to the outfield players. In games where he made 3 saves or more, we won 6 points out of 69, so the number of games where he made key saves that won us points were actually few and far between.
The reason we nearly got relegated was therefore nothing to do with the defence or goalkeeper, it was because we only scored 41 goals, the second worst in the league. There is a strong argument therefore that if it wasn't for Alsop and the defence, we probably would have got relegated.
Agreed about our attack. However, I'm going to separate Allsop and our defence just for a moment.
Under Allsop we allowed a shot on target every 27 minutes. For all goalkeepers with 20 or more starts in the Championship, that ranks as 9th best. However, 37% of shots on target on our goal went in, which ranks as 6th worst. Take Viktor Johansson at Rotherham. He faced 69 more shots on target than Allsop but only conceded 3 more than him, where only 26.5% of shots on target went in. Had Ryan Allsop had similar stats to Johannson for shots on target that were goals, he'd have conceded 15 fewer than he did. While that's taking it to the other extreme, the inescapable conclusion is that we were sound enough defensively to limit sides to a quite low number of attempts on target, but had a goalkeeper who was one of the poorest in the division at keeping those efforts out.
You really are on a crusade against Alsop arent you. His goals conceded record is actually good
I think we've established that it isn't.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with him and if we released him, other Championship (or higher) teams would be queuing up to get him.
You surely don't believe this?
North Cardiff Blue
21-08-23, 06:15
Just watch them play, Allsop makes no saves and gets the angles wrong and we conceded easy goals that are clearly down to the keeper.
Although we are conceding a lot, Alnwick is making some brilliant saves and making some look very easy due to getting his angles right, how the hell previous Managers picked Alsopp over Alnwick is beyond me, but then again two of them were inexperienced coaches so maybe that's it.
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