I thought we were on the road to recovery?

[the other bob wilson]

As someone who always believed Sunak would achieve his target of halving inflation because it was going to happen anyway once the rises in energy prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine had worked their way out of the cycle. I'd be a hypocrite if I now started blaming his Government for the fact that it has now risen again to 4.0. However, having heard over the past month or two that the rapid fall in inflation late last year was down to Sunak's Government, shouldn't it follow that they should be held responsible when it rises again?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-67998084

[The Bloop]

I doubt the government will say anything about it today as they've got enough going on elsewhere.
If it does get mentioned, they'll undoubtedly say that inflation has still halved, despite the small rise.

[the other bob wilson]

I doubt the government will say anything about it today as they've got enough going on elsewhere.
If it does get mentioned, they'll undoubtedly say that inflation has still halved, despite the small rise.

Hut's already said that inflation rarely falls in a straight line and that their plan is working :shrug:

[The Bloop]

Hut's already said that inflation rarely falls in a straight line and that their plan is working :shrug:

Sounds like football manager speak saying the team stuck to his plan, despite the 5-0 defeat 🙂

[pipster]

Hut's already said that inflation rarely falls in a straight line and that their plan is working :shrug:

Did you listen to the whole interview ? and the bbc's economic correspondent view on it - re core inflation, alcohol / fags taken out of the equation etc

[the other bob wilson]

Did you listen to the whole interview ? and the bbc's economic correspondent view on it - re core inflation, alcohol / fags taken out of the equation etc

No I didn’t. I see tobacco has been identified as a driver behind the inflation rate rise, didn’t Hunt raise taxes on that in his recent Autumn statement?

[JamesWales]

When inflation generally went from around 2% to around 10% it took about 18 months or so, and as can be clearly seen below, it didn't go up in a uniform fashion, it went up in a trend. There were at least three occasions when inflation fell whilst the general picture was of it rising.

Now inflation is falling from around 10% to (hopefully) around 2% and in the same way, it won't be uniform. Sometimes it will rise slightly along the way.

The risk is that it has bottomed out at a high level of around 4%. Hopefully that isn't the case, but will take more than one months data to prove that and Bob knows that too

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/inflation-cpi

[pipster]

No I didn’t. I see tobacco has been identified as a driver behind the inflation rate rise, didn’t Hunt raise taxes on that in his recent Autumn statement?

I believe he did - and rightly so in my opinion - other opinions may vary

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Bunch of chancers and the usual saps dsating yeah but no but yeah to defend them

Its pathetic

Hopefully they will get stamped into the dirt very soon at the next election

Talking of dirt braverman is on the news again

I sincerely hope she's cast to the wilderness ASAP

[JamesWales]

Sludge when inflation falls 6.5% in ten months:



Sludge when inflation rises 0.1% in a month:

"BUNCH OF CHANCES! SAPS! PATHETIC! STAMP THEM INTO THE DIRT! BRAVERMAN IS DIRT! CAST HER INTO THE WILDERNESS!"

Doesn't sound like someone who is genuinely glad to see inflation generally falling for the benefit of peoples wallets to me.

[Dave Blue]

When inflation generally went from around 2% to around 10% it took about 18 months or so, and as can be clearly seen below, it didn't go up in a uniform fashion, it went up in a trend. There were at least three occasions when inflation fell whilst the general picture was of it rising.

Now inflation is falling from around 10% to (hopefully) around 2% and in the same way, it won't be uniform. Sometimes it will rise slightly along the way.

The risk is that it has bottomed out at a high level of around 4%. Hopefully that isn't the case, but will take more than one months data to prove that and Bob knows that too

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/inflation-cpi

He also knows it was naff all to do with Sunak. So does Sunak.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Sludge when inflation falls 6.5% in ten months:



Sludge when inflation rises 0.1% in a month:

"BUNCH OF CHANCES! SAPS! PATHETIC! STAMP THEM INTO THE DIRT! BRAVERMAN IS DIRT! CAST HER INTO THE WILDERNESS!"

Doesn't sound like someone who is genuinely glad to see inflation generally falling for the benefit of peoples wallets to me.

You are one of the idiots , right on cue

Have another few months off, its not going to rid us of your nauseating pro tory creeping but at least we can have a break from it

You pretend to be nuanced but it's all nonsense

I will pay for you to go on holiday again if you like , it will be money we'll spent

[the other bob wilson]

He also knows it was naff all to do with Sunak. So does Sunak.

Exactly, the bit where I say I don’t blame the Government for a 0.1 rise in inflation gets ignored. It is true though that Sunak has been claiming the credit for more than halving inflation, so we’re responsible when inflation goes down, but it’s European or world factors to blame when it goes up - Labour Governments have claimed the same in the past - I’m willing to admit that, the resident Tories on here seem unable to do the same when the boots on the other foot.

[pipster]

Exactly, the bit where I say I don’t blame the Government for a 0.1 rise in inflation gets ignored. It is true though that Sunak has been claiming the credit for more than halving inflation, so we’re responsible when inflation goes down, but it’s European or world factors to blame when it goes up - Labour Governments have claimed the same in the past - I’m willing to admit that, the resident Tories on here seem unable to do the same when the boots on the other foot.

If a Govt spends too much - it generally will cause inflation to rise in the short - medium term. Think Corbyn and his 300 billion pound spending plan
If external forces (Ukraine / International shipping issues etc) happen - inflation generally will rise.
If left to its own devices generally over time (a long time) inflation will come down. But by that time it has impacted in a bad way.

Hence - Govt intervention to slow down inflation - by taking money out of certain market areas to stop over spending.
It's not rocket science - just a game of cat and mouse measured in monthly cycles - that usually takes a quarter to have an affect. And all Govt's do it on the advice of the BoE

[pipster]

Sludge when inflation falls 6.5% in ten months:



Sludge when inflation rises 0.1% in a month:

"BUNCH OF CHANCES! SAPS! PATHETIC! STAMP THEM INTO THE DIRT! BRAVERMAN IS DIRT! CAST HER INTO THE WILDERNESS!"

Doesn't sound like someone who is genuinely glad to see inflation generally falling for the benefit of peoples wallets to me.

There is no point, everyone knows what he is and what he is like. He likes to be down trodden so he can then blame it on whoever fits his narrative.

[fugsyphil]

Sludge when inflation falls 6.5% in ten months:



Sludge when inflation rises 0.1% in a month:

"BUNCH OF CHANCES! SAPS! PATHETIC! STAMP THEM INTO THE DIRT! BRAVERMAN IS DIRT! CAST HER INTO THE WILDERNESS!"

Doesn't sound like someone who is genuinely glad to see inflation generally falling for the benefit of peoples wallets to me.

Getting inflation so high that it was capable of falling 6.5% in ten months is hardly something to feckin celebrate

Sooner this bunch of corrupt crooks are out the better and despite the opposition also being pretty shambolic they have to be an improvement on the current circus

[BlueArmy 86]

Don't you know? The Rwanda plan is the urgent national priority! - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68001957

Does anyone outside the Tory party actually support the Rwanda Bill. We'll fly a few immigrants over, in exchange for some Rwandans, and its costing billions. All to appease the racist voters, the country is in the bin. Oh, and its been driven by children of immigrants. We live in a weird time.

[the other bob wilson]

If a Govt spends too much - it generally will cause inflation to rise in the short - medium term. Think Corbyn and his 300 billion pound spending plan
If external forces (Ukraine / International shipping issues etc) happen - inflation generally will rise.
If left to its own devices generally over time (a long time) inflation will come down. But by that time it has impacted in a bad way.

Hence - Govt intervention to slow down inflation - by taking money out of certain market areas to stop over spending.
It's not rocket science - just a game of cat and mouse measured in monthly cycles - that usually takes a quarter to have an affect. And all Govt's do it on the advice of the BoE

So how come you and people like you don't accept that when applied to 2008?

[JamesWales]

You are one of the idiots , right on cue

Have another few months off, its not going to rid us of your nauseating pro tory creeping but at least we can have a break from it

You pretend to be nuanced but it's all nonsense

I will pay for you to go on holiday again if you like , it will be money we'll spent

Just pointing out your hypocrisy! You do seem to get far far more animated by bad news than good news

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

I am prepared, on a voluntary unpaid basis to fly oily tory boys like James Whales and Pipsqueak to Rwanda but save the country money by dropping them off in the Atlantic ocean

Pipsqueak can moan as much as he wants but I won't hear him in the cockpit as he's going to be locked up in a crate in the luggage hold with an orange in his gob

[JamesWales]

I am prepared, on a voluntary unpaid basis to fly oily tory boys like James Whales and Pipsqueak to Rwanda but save the country money by dropping them off in the Atlantic ocean

Pipsqueak can moan as much as he wants but I won't hear him in the cockpit as he's going to be locked up in a crate in the luggage hold with an orange in his gob

No way am I getting into a plane flown by a bloke who has a raging fit at inflation rising 0.1% in a month. You can fly yourself.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

😆

[pipster]

So how come you and people like you don't accept that when applied to 2008?

Because prior to that Gordon Brown had "a loose hand on the tiller" of financial regulations when he was chancellor. So when it happened it was much worse because of his policy (his policy advisers at the time were Ed Milliband and Ed Balls). Brown has admitted this in public since.

Brown had a "light-touch" on the finance industry. The FSA (which he set up i believe) he wanted self regulation rather strict enforcement. He probably did this as Labour was always seen to be interfering and anti business etc - the road to his downfall was paved with good intentions. The crash wasnt all his fault but he laid down the conditions which made the consequences worse -in my opinion.

The bail out / re austerity / quantitive easing was something that Alistair Darling said he would have done something similar.

Also remember Gordon Brown's PFI initiative which made the UK economy look a lot more healthier than it actually was - PFI debt was not included in the accounts. So when brown was announcing 3.5% growth per year, it seemed a miracle, when in fact it was built on sand.

Brown "We set up the FSA believing the problem would come from the failure of an individual institution. That was the big mistake.

"We didn't understand just how entangled things were.""

[the other bob wilson]

Because prior to that Gordon Brown had "a loose hand on the tiller" of financial regulations when he was chancellor. So when it happened it was much worse because of his policy (his policy advisers at the time were Ed Milliband and Ed Balls). Brown has admitted this in public since.

Brown had a "light-touch" on the finance industry. The FSA (which he set up i believe) he wanted self regulation rather strict enforcement. He probably did this as Labour was always seen to be interfering and anti business etc - the road to his downfall was paved with good intentions. The crash wasnt all his fault but he laid down the conditions which made the consequences worse -in my opinion.

The bail out / re austerity / quantitive easing was something that Alistair Darling said he would have done something similar.

Also remember Gordon Brown's PFI initiative which made the UK economy look a lot more healthier than it actually was - PFI debt was not included in the accounts. So when brown was announcing 3.5% growth per year, it seemed a miracle, when in fact it was built on sand.

Brown "We set up the FSA believing the problem would come from the failure of an individual institution. That was the big mistake.

"We didn't understand just how entangled things were.""

Or to put it another way, I’ll excuse the present Government anything and the present opposition nothing.

[pipster]

Or to put it another way, I’ll excuse the present Government anything and the present opposition nothing.


If I wanted to put it that way I would have typed it that way, usual strawman argument from your goodself.
RTFP

Osbourne and Darling had similar plans post the crash. Leading up to it Brown and his "Loose hand on the tiller" made the outcome worse - he has admitted that himself.

No doubt you'll blame the current German recession on Cameron, Brexit and the conservative party as well....

[the other bob wilson]

If I wanted to put it that way I would have typed it that way, usual strawman argument from your goodself.
RTFP

Osbourne and Darling had similar plans post the crash. Leading up to it Brown and his "Loose hand on the tiller" made the outcome worse - he has admitted that himself.

No doubt you'll blame the current German recession on Cameron, Brexit and the conservative party as well....

No, that’s what you’d do if we had a Labour Government - there’s more than enough to legitimately blame this Government for to bother about German recessions which are nothing to do with Sunak and co. it’s quite funny being called a straw man by the person who makes a habit of doing what he’s done in this thread - that is try to turn threads which had nothing to do with the Labour Party when they were started into a critique of said party.

All you’re doing now is showing your lack of self awareness.

[JamesWales]

I think the thing that just frustrates me a little, and this is not just on CCMB, but in the wider political discourse, and that is that there is only ever one type of criticism and that's to blame the govt.

In practice we all want much the same thing. We all want high wages and low unemployment and everyone to be happy and healthy and wise and all the rest of it. It is of course very difficult to achieve (some govts are better than others though) and moreover there are always huge external factors at play.

My issue is that I just don't see a change of govt making any difference. I hope I'm wrong, but I just see a misdiagnosis of the problems and when that happens you will never solve them.

In that sense, pointing out that Germany is in a generally worse economic state right now is valid, as many people simply blame Brexit or Tories for things, and Germany is a centre left govt in the EU facing the same problems, so it illustrates that the solution many put forward (a change in govt) may not work. It may evenale things worse.

Of course, Germany isnt the UK, the SDP aren't Labour and even if you thought it may make no difference you may still want a fresh govt to punish them or just to see change for changes sake. I get that argument tbh.

But this idea that the govt is useless, incompetent and that there are easy solutions elsewhere. That's wrong im afraid. The irony is that in France, Germany, Holland and Spain those same knee jerk arguments are being made against centre-left govts in much the same way.

[the other bob wilson]

I think the thing that just frustrates me a little, and this is not just on CCMB, but in the wider political discourse, and that is that there is only ever one type of criticism and that's to blame the govt.

In practice we all want much the same thing. We all want high wages and low unemployment and everyone to be happy and healthy and wise and all the rest of it. It is of course very difficult to achieve (some govts are better than others though) and moreover there are always huge external factors at play.

My issue is that I just don't see a change of govt making any difference. I hope I'm wrong, but I just see a misdiagnosis of the problems and when that happens you will never solve them.

In that sense, pointing out that Germany is in a generally worse economic state right now is valid, as many people simply blame Brexit or Tories for things, and Germany is a centre left govt in the EU facing the same problems, so it illustrates that the solution many put forward (a change in govt) may not work. It may evenale things worse.

Of course, Germany isnt the UK, the SDP aren't Labour and even if you thought it may make no difference you may still want a fresh govt to punish them or just to see change for changes sake. I get that argument tbh.

But this idea that the govt is useless, incompetent and that there are easy solutions elsewhere. That's wrong im afraid. The irony is that in France, Germany, Holland and Spain those same knee jerk arguments are being made against centre-left govts in much the same way.

That’s what happens to G9vernments, they get blamed. In my view, Labour have been wrongly blamed by many on the right for the financial crash, but rightly blamed for the second invasion of Iraq. However, in both cases, they were fully backed in what they did by the Conservative opposition, but no one holds the Conservatives responsible for the two events because they weren’t in a position to dictate policy.

I could produce a long list of things this Government could be blamed for since 2010, but in many cases they would be subjective views just like any other voter. However, I’ve posted several links in recent months showing that people in general are worse off now than they were in 2010

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/05/remember-the-austerity-of-2010s-early-2020s-are-expected-to-be-far-worse

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/20/uuk-workers-wage-stagnation-resolution-foundation-thinktank

https://ifs.org.uk/articles/10-years-have-we-recovered-financial-crisis


We’ve now reached the stage where the Conservative MP Danny Kruger has admitted that people are worse off under this Government and a recent You Gov poll had 75 per cent of people agreeing with him

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/tory-mp-is-right-the-uk-is-in-a-worse-shape-than-in-2010-366528/