Iran in direct attack on Israel

[Gofer Blue]

And so it begins.....

[Gofer Blue]

Houthis and Hezbollah joining in as well according to Al Jazeera. Multiple drones and missiles on their way to Israel.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Well Israel have targeted the embassy of a foreign country in Damascus

There are no angels in this crisis but what do Israel expect ?

[Gofer Blue]

Just the excuse the Israeli's need to go after Iran's nuclear facilities.

[+ the native hipster]

apparently charlotte church got the honour of launching the first drone

[truthpaste]

Well Israel have targeted the embassy of a foreign country in Damascus

There are no angels in this crisis but what do Israel expect ?

The reasons for the Damascus attack have been explained again this evening by the BBC who have also said that this is potentially the most serious situation since the Yom Kippur War of 1973 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yom_Kippur_War).

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

The reasons for the Damascus attack have been explained again this evening by the BBC who have also said that this is potentially the most serious situation since the Yom Kippur War of 1973 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yom_Kippur_War).

Israel is deranged

[+ the native hipster]

Israel is deranged

have i missed something ? who's doing the missile thing

[the other bob wilson]

have i missed something ? who's doing the missile thing

Israel have been justifying their devastation of Gaza as self defence after 7 October, doesn’t this give Iran the chance to claim that what happened overnight is the same thing after what happened to their diplomatic corp?

[truthpaste]

Israel have been justifying their devastation of Gaza as self defence after 7 October, doesn’t this give Iran the chance to claim that what happened overnight is the same thing after what happened to their diplomatic corp?

Maybe so, if Iran wasn't behind Hezbollah (not to mention Hamas), because since October 8 2023 it has fired more than 3,000 rockets at Israeli civilian and military targets from Lebanon. Additionally, the terror group has launched more than 600 anti-tank missiles and drones at Israeli territory. So let's not pretend that the Syria attack from Israel was phase one.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

have i missed something ? who's doing the missile thing

You are the missing link

Basically Israel attacked and killed an Iranian General and several innocent people in a foreign embassy in Syria

Israel acts like there is no international law but crys when they get attacked

As far as I am concerned it was payback

[Keyser Soze]

It is never possible to argue this subject with anyone on a sensible basis here in the UK, Europe or the US because of the political and religious divide:

- Aetheists and Islamics (typically pro Palestinian) versus Jews and Christians (typically pro Israel)

- Political (Nationalists & Left, typically pro-Palestinian and anti-imperial, versus Conservatives, typically Imperialist or Zionist sympathies)

My personal view is that the subject is too complex for most folk to understand, nor be interested in. But it is a fascinating one. To understand this subject well, you need an understanding of history, geo-politics (regional and strategic global alliances), energy markets, local issues and conflicts, nuclear objectives of middle east countries, and financing of militias.

If you are coming in from the religious/political angles above it is easy to see why people cannot see what is happening, nor even predict it. I have predicted a regional war to my friends since the first Houthi attack on ships in the Suez back in end of Oct / start November, and made a good sum on oil and gold trading, as a result.

This is why I am surprised at what is happening today is a surprise to people. It is possible, with an open mind, with a few weeks of reading to get a good handle on it all, but people prefer to “stay in their lane” and wave a flag. So as explaining all the above will take far too long, the only sensible thing to discuss is “What Now?” and “What Next?”

What is the current situation?

Well Iran have been financing Houthis, Lebanon, Syrian and Iraqi militias with the reversal of the oil embargo, with the 16bn dollars Biden gave back to them. Now Iran has designs on Middle East dominance, but are experts in financing and using others to do their fighting. They are master diplomats through history and this is their approach (similar to China). They don’t do open scrapping unless dragged into it directly (Iran v Iraq). They are excellent strategists.

But as Hamas were eliminated and Yemeni infrastructure destroyed, Iran knew that a far richer Hezbollah were the next Israeli target. So as of last night, Iran have attacked WITH Hezbollah and other operatives, due to the attack on the embassy. Justified? Probably. But this is the the crossing of the rubicon because this is the first point that Iran has dropped the mask. It is now out and out Iran v Israel - a situation they tried to avoid.

What does that mean?

Well given that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard explicitly wants to “eliminate Israel from the map”, and Israel sees Iran as the regional threat, unless there is a ceasefire we now have an open straight fight. They are both committed to eliminating each other. That is the short term phase we have now entered.

What Next?

The choices facing us are now close to the same as WWII. It seems that aside from an unlikely ceasefire, four sceanrios are on the table:

1. Do little. Let Iran and Israel duke it out. This would mean a drawn out war between two rich rivals, and further disruption of oil markets, and rising inflation (and thus interest rates) - no doubt with financial and military support from their masters (US/Europe for Israel, China/Russia and Lebanon, Syria, Yemen for Iran, who are already allies.

2. A further escalation regionally, where lines between Sunni and Shia muslims are dran. With Israel, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi, Oman and Egypt versus Israel, with Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and a big sect of Iraq. A full regional war, with even bigger hits on inflation and interest rates.

3. Europe and US conduct an all out attack on Iran, but Russia and China, more focused on Ukraine and Taiwan, conserve their money and allow the US and Europe exhaust itself as it did in World War Two, on the basis that they do not fancy losing a war, military and face over Iran. Russia calculates that it has coped without Iranian oil as it has its own. China already has gas an oil from Russia so they will cope too. So they leave Iran sink or swim and live to fight another day, calculating they can win Ukraine and Taiwan if the US and Europe exhausts itself v Iran.

4. A full phase World War III. China and Russia openly back Iran with full military and financial capability, with all above parties going for it.

Now as I have thought since November, a ceasefire with Hamas nor Iran is feasible. So one of the above is will happen. I think it will be .1 or .3.

If the above happens, and a ceasefire not possible, then as a result the effects will be a scorching upwards of inflation (shipping lanes further hit, costs of food, clothing, commodities rip upwards), and a second run on higher interest rates - as I predicted in 2022/23. But as this will be more drawn out, a longer wave of rate rises, into the 10-15% range. Oil, gas and gold will keep pumping up. Food costs will be harrowing. Bank of England, The Fed and ECB will stop making silly predictions of falling rates, and house prices keep falling. Manufacturing and heavy Industry, reliant on oil, will be hurt. High interest rates due to war debt will put pressure on sterling and Euro, and goverment budgets cut due to high interest rates payments. See the 1970s for similar effects from Yom Kippur war. I also predict further social strife as pro-Iran protesters become prominent, with social division and newswires discussing more anti-Semitism and anti-Muslim sentiment.

All you can do is figure out the probabilities, and then what it means for inflation, interest rates, currencies, stocks, bonds, commodities (energies, metals and food) and gold. Because these will mean big changes. There is nothing we can win from arguing, so is all we can do.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Maybe so, if Iran wasn't behind Hezbollah (not to mention Hamas), because since October 8 2023 it has fired more than 3,000 rockets at Israeli civilian and military targets from Lebanon. Additionally, the terror group has launched more than 600 anti-tank missiles and drones at Israeli territory. So let's not pretend that the Syria attack from Israel was phase one.

I don't care

This is war

They are al, idiots , fighting each other because their god is better than the opponents god and he gave them that land oh no he didn't oh yes he did

A plague on all their houses

[truthpaste]

I don't care

This is war

They are al, idiots , fighting each other because their god is better than the opponents god and he gave them that land oh no he didn't oh yes he did

A plague on all their houses

You are now calling down plagues. You are the 'God' upgrade in this situation.
Now we can all relax.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

You are now calling down plagues. You are the 'God' upgrade in this situation.
Now we can all relax.

I know God is all bullshit and belief in him is at the core of this complete mess

If I could wipe out the idiots on both sides who fight with guns and bombs instead of their mind I would

[truthpaste]

I know God is all bullshit and belief in him is at the core of this complete mess

If I could wipe out the idiots on both sides who fight with guns and bombs instead of their mind I would

Yes we can see that :sherlock:

[Keyser Soze]

It is never possible to argue this subject with anyone on a sensible basis here in the UK, Europe or the US because of the political and religious divide:

- Aetheists and Islamics (typically pro Palestinian) versus Jews and Christians (typically pro Israel)

- Political (Nationalists & Left, typically pro-Palestinian and anti-imperial, versus Conservatives, typically Imperialist or Zionist sympathies)

My personal view is that the subject is too complex for most folk to understand, nor be interested in. But it is a fascinating one. To understand this subject well, you need an understanding of history, geo-politics (regional and strategic global alliances), energy markets, local issues and conflicts, nuclear objectives of middle east countries, and financing of militias.

If you are coming in from the religious/political angles above it is easy to see why people cannot see what is happening, nor even predict it. I have predicted a regional war to my friends since the first Houthi attack on ships in the Suez back in end of Oct / start November, and made a good sum on oil and gold trading, as a result.

This is why I am surprised at what is happening today is a surprise to people. It is possible, with an open mind, with a few weeks of reading to get a good handle on it all, but people prefer to “stay in their lane” and wave a flag. So as explaining all the above will take far too long, the only sensible thing to discuss is “What Now?” and “What Next?”

What is the current situation?

Well Iran have been financing Houthis, Lebanon, Syrian and Iraqi militias with the reversal of the oil embargo, with the 16bn dollars Biden gave back to them. Now Iran has designs on Middle East dominance, but are experts in financing and using others to do their fighting. They are master diplomats through history and this is their approach (similar to China). They don’t do open scrapping unless dragged into it directly (Iran v Iraq). They are excellent strategists.

But as Hamas were eliminated and Yemeni infrastructure destroyed, Iran knew that a far richer Hezbollah were the next Israeli target. So as of last night, Iran have attacked WITH Hezbollah and other operatives, due to the attack on the embassy. Justified? Probably. But this is the the crossing of the rubicon because this is the first point that Iran has dropped the mask. It is now out and out Iran v Israel - a situation they tried to avoid.

What does that mean?

Well given that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard explicitly wants to “eliminate Israel from the map”, and Israel sees Iran as the regional threat, unless there is a ceasefire we now have an open straight fight. They are both committed to eliminating each other. That is the short term phase we have now entered.

What Next?

The choices facing us are now close to the same as WWII. It seems that aside from an unlikely ceasefire, four sceanrios are on the table:

1. Do little. Let Iran and Israel duke it out. This would mean a drawn out war between two rich rivals, and further disruption of oil markets, and rising inflation (and thus interest rates) - no doubt with financial and military support from their masters (US/Europe for Israel, China/Russia and Lebanon, Syria, Yemen for Iran, who are already allies.

2. A further escalation regionally, where lines between Sunni and Shia muslims are dran. With Israel, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi, Oman and Egypt versus Israel, with Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and a big sect of Iraq. A full regional war, with even bigger hits on inflation and interest rates.

CORRECTION: A mis-type here. Meant to say “With Israel, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi, Oman and Egypt WITH Israel, and Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and a big sect of Iraq. Or something that vertly closely resembling those alliances.

3. Europe and US conduct an all out attack on Iran, but Russia and China, more focused on Ukraine and Taiwan, conserve their money and allow the US and Europe exhaust itself as it did in World War Two, on the basis that they do not fancy losing a war, military and face over Iran. Russia calculates that it has coped without Iranian oil as it has its own. China already has gas an oil from Russia so they will cope too. So they leave Iran sink or swim and live to fight another day, calculating they can win Ukraine and Taiwan if the US and Europe exhausts itself v Iran.

4. A full phase World War III. China and Russia openly back Iran with full military and financial capability, with all above parties going for it.

Now as I have thought since November, a ceasefire with Hamas nor Iran is feasible. So one of the above is will happen. I think it will be .1 or .3.

If the above happens, and a ceasefire not possible, then as a result the effects will be a scorching upwards of inflation (shipping lanes further hit, costs of food, clothing, commodities rip upwards), and a second run on higher interest rates - as I predicted in 2022/23. But as this will be more drawn out, a longer wave of rate rises, into the 10-15% range. Oil, gas and gold will keep pumping up. Food costs will be harrowing. Bank of England, The Fed and ECB will stop making silly predictions of falling rates, and house prices keep falling. Manufacturing and heavy Industry, reliant on oil, will be hurt. High interest rates due to war debt will put pressure on sterling and Euro, and goverment budgets cut due to high interest rates payments. See the 1970s for similar effects from Yom Kippur war. I also predict further social strife as pro-Iran protesters become prominent, with social division and newswires discussing more anti-Semitism and anti-Muslim sentiment.

All you can do is figure out the probabilities, and then what it means for inflation, interest rates, currencies, stocks, bonds, commodities (energies, metals and food) and gold. Because these will mean big changes. There is nothing we can win from arguing, so is all we can do.

Correction in point 2 above

[Keyser Soze]

Correction in point 2 above

CORRECTION 2: With Israel, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi, Oman, Jordan and Egypt versus Israel, with Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and a big sect of Iraqi Shia muslims.

The point here is that Sunnis and Shias hate each other at the power level. So Israel does have Sunni muslim country support.

[Keyser Soze]

As to what I would do if I were the West? Well in the short term the highest probability is that Iran says “Israel - we were just warning you, leave us alone”. Israel agrees. Short term dies down and Israel keep focusing on Hamas

But my suspicion is that Hezbollah will then be IDF’s next target and there will come a point where once Yemeni, Hamas and Hezbollah threats are eliminated, then Iran comes into focus again. Because this conflictis baked in to the objectives of Iran and Israel.

Why? Since the 1979 removal of The Shah in Iran, and the crazy Shia muslim wing of leadership installed, The Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG) has had three stated high level objectives:

1. The elimination of Israel from the map

This will always be resisted by Israel

2. The removal of US and Europe from influence in the Middle East

This is not acceptable to The West or we would lose energy access, all be bankrupt from high interest rates and inflation, and no access to Suez shipping lanes, hitting global trade and ability to defend Mediterranean waters from Russian, Chinese or Iranian naval threats)

3. To spread Shia muslim fundamentalism across the Middle East

This is not acceptable and an existential threat to Sunni muslims in the middle east such as Jordan, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi.

What should we do?

War is clearly not good. But nor is a long term ceasefire possible, with them strategically opposed. My preference is:

1. Re-install Trump’s deal to ban Iran selling oil in open markets: kills their financing. Previously this brought Iran to its economic knees and de-stabilised its leadership. Do this. Enough is enough.

2. US and UK/Europe take out Iranian Revolutionary Guard, currently outside Iran

3. Once financing killed off, and IRG taken out (like with Saddam’s revolutionary guard) the Iranian Shia leadership will be out of money and out of military support and exposed to internal civil war. Financially support a Sunni group of the people to overthrow the Shias, resulting in a progressive Sunni regime, where women’s rights are respected and a more tolerant friendly mixed society and government in operation - as it was pre 1979.

If I were the UK government, I would propose that three step plan to the US and G7 and get cracking. I am no expert, but that seems a plan to re-install long term peace and stability, without direct war. It does risk tension with China and Russia who are backing them, but that tension is there anyway. It is a cheaper way of trying to solve the problem it seems.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Yes we can see that :sherlock:

Give me the button

[stevo]

2. The removal of US and Europe from influence in the Middle East

This is not acceptable to The West or we would lose energy access, all be bankrupt from high interest rates and inflation, and no access to Suez shipping lanes, hitting global trade and ability to defend Mediterranean waters from Russian, Chinese or Iranian naval threats)
.

Thank you for your long, informative posts.

Can you explain this bit above? Why would we lose access to the Suez and impact our energy if we stopped backing Israel?

[the other bob wilson]

Maybe so, if Iran wasn't behind Hezbollah (not to mention Hamas), because since October 8 2023 it has fired more than 3,000 rockets at Israeli civilian and military targets from Lebanon. Additionally, the terror group has launched more than 600 anti-tank missiles and drones at Israeli territory. So let's not pretend that the Syria attack from Israel was phase one.

Let’s not pretend October 7 was either then.

[stevo]

- Aetheists and Islamics (typically pro Palestinian) versus Jews and Christians (typically pro Israel)

- Political (Nationalists & Left, typically pro-Palestinian and anti-imperial, versus Conservatives, typically Imperialist or Zionist sympathies)
.

I have observed this to be generally the case but I don’t understand why it is so. Am I being thick here?

[truthpaste]

I have observed this to be generally the case but I don’t understand why it is so. Am I being thick here?

No, not thick at all. Unfortunately this +4000 year old conflict can't be fully understood purely via secular history, science and politics. There are kingdoms involved here opposing each other that will continue to do so until the final chapter of human history has been written.

[A Quiet Monkfish]

Thank you for your long, informative posts.

Can you explain this bit above? Why would we lose access to the Suez and impact our energy if we stopped backing Israel?

Probably the Red Sea, Arabian Sea routes.

[Keyser Soze]

No, not thick at all. Unfortunately this +4000 year old conflict can't be fully understood purely via secular history, science and politics. There are kingdoms involved here opposing each other that will continue to do so until the final chapter of human history has been written.

Yes, but I also highlighted in my comments, energy policy and global trade, shipping routes (for navy access & trade), as well as religion (dominant muslim factions such as Shia v Sunni, let alone Arab v Jew) and local tribalism add to it. Hugely complex and hugely unstable by the fact that all these factors are changing month to month, let alone year to year. Anyone who is looking for a Northern Ireland type settlement and think we will "solve" this is either an extreme optimist, an idiot or a liar. In my view, this will always be with us in our lifetime and beyond. The average Joe probably considers the events through what the BBC & Sky News tell them, what their political allegiances tell them to side with, how their friends think, how they feel about religion, or how they feel about humanity. But humanity or "their people" isn't what the people behind this war are thinking, and that is the saddest part.

The first time I realised it wasn't what the news was telling me, or what was right or wrong, was a book on oil trade and energy market conflict. Like many of us, I suspected that greed was at play, but did not know the how's and why's. The Blair invasion of Iraq around 2003 got my goat, and I started asking questions about it. When a relative of mine who worked at the high end in oil (and was engaged to an American oil 'diplomat') tipped me off I read the book he recommended by an oil-insider and oil analyst. After I read it I was on holiday with him in the Caribbean and he asked what I thought. I said "Sick. Pretty ruthless too.". He said "Yeah, I work in that industry and I keep hearing stories all the time, but my other half's job confirms it. This game is ugly. I will do a few more years, take the money and get out of it and retire." He did.

When I read that book I was blown away and chased the primary sources, of which one was a gas & oil map of pipelines, as I was learning about doing oil trading back around 2004-2006. As always some pipelines are being built, others in construction, and others in consideration. These days there are several Oil & gas maps online, but you should look at them alongside a normal map and see why some countries will be fought over, and others not. So by looking at the map below you can see how important being friendly to certain countries is, in order to maintain trade and energy stability. Consider the routes to pipe oil and gas from source to European and Asian markets. Consider how military can move their navies. Consider where your goods come from and where they go to be sold. If you have an IQ over 60, you can begin to see where the real motivations are, and why some countries go to war a lot, or why they get special exemptions.

https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-oil-infrastructure-tracker/tracker-map/

The Suez is important to get oil exports to Europe cheaply. Shipping is always the cheapest form of logistics, over trucking or air freight. Trade also goes through Suez. The US & West need a friendly leader in charge of Egypt and Israel owning that land free of challenge. If so, the Suez should present a fairly friendly path for all global trade to reach US and Europe. Oil can be pumped from Saudi via pipelines through friendly pipelines in friendly countries, or via cargo ships out of Suez. Providing these pipelines for oil and gas are protected, or trade routes through Suez, then inflation stays stable, so should interest rates, and life is The West is easier. If these are threatened the opposite happens. Look at The Suez canal history in 1950s and Yom Kippur War of 1970s, and see the effects on inflation, historic interest rates and our economy if these are not secure. In addition, if Israel lose their territory to Iran, then being next to Egypt, Egypt may also be the next target to fall under Iranian influence, and Shia militias or Muslim Brotherhood people re-emerging inside Egypt, and further trouble for global trade and energy market stability.

If you want to throw in some leftfield ideas, google the Ben Gurion canal. The Ben Gurion canal was a project in the 1960s where the Israelis wanted to help the West by competing with Suez by having a separate canal. This would make shipping prices more competitive, but also make money for Israel through shipping fees. Some speculate that Israel's recent moves to clear out Gaza Strip is connected to eliminating threats to a renewed Ben Gurion canal project, now that Israel is far richer.

https://www.newarab.com/news/what-israels-ben-gurion-canal-plan-and-why-gaza-matters

I also speculate (and see it more likely) that Israel sees an opportunity to straighten the Saudi pipeline right through West Bank and out to the sea via Israeli ports. Israel has already made some big gas finds offshore so the port of Haifa and maybe another one will boom in trade soon as refineries refine the stuff nearby. At the moment, it pulls back and goes into Lebanon, but Hezbollah are pirating the pipeline and taking money to arm themselves, so the line is a target. If you look at the oil pipeline link I put further up, it would suit Saudi interests (pro-Israeli) and Israel (commercial fees) to get rid of that Z-bend in the "Trans-Arabian Oil Pipeline" pipe, make it shorter and cut out Iran-supporting Lebanon by pushing the "Trans-Arabian Oil Pipeline" in a shorter straight line through West Bank and out to sea. But it would be currently too risky for Israel and Saudi to build it, with Hamas and Israel-hating Palestinians in there. "Clear them out and build it" is what I think they are up to. The Ben Gurion canal may come later, but I think the Saudi pipeline is the real driver here.

In summary, and I hope it answers a few questions, trying to view this through partisan lines will see the average reader making error after error in forecasts. Unfortunately, the Middle East is a chessboard for big player chess strategy, and oil, trade and maritime logistics driving key decisions and wars. What matters to local people there is a side hobby to the US and West, China, Russia, Israel and Iran. Everyone else in the region is being played by these big players - yes in the name of greed and profit, but also securing and growing their own military and trade empires.

Nothing changes. This no different to Russia-Turkey war over the Bosphorus shipping lanes, Russia-Japan war over sea access, Spanish and Portuguese invasions of Latin American for gold and silver, British invasion of India for silk, cotton precious metals and staging posts for Asian conquest, Second World War German occupation of Greece for maritime naval access, Austro-Hungarian pre-World War One attack on Serbia over the Sanjak railway route, or Russian invasion of Afghanistan (to get near the Pakistan sea access). History is repeating itself. Trade, security of logistical routes, naval / military routes, money, empire. Old ruses, new excuses. Only the players and details change.

[JamesWales]

I think we all know that Israel's response to Oct 7th has been brutal on the people of Gaza. I guess they would argue that is Hamas' fault, both for their strike on Israel and then for hiding in amongst the population and making fleeing more difficult etc. I don't doubt there is a lot of truth in that, but if innocent people are dying, frankly who cares who is doing it? Israel without question lost some moral authority in its response.

That said, my initial thought this morning was one of sympathy. It's the only real democracy in the region. It's surrounded by extremist, undemocratic, violent, mysoginistic, borderline racist states, several of which want it to cease to exist and don't teach their own populations about the reasons why it was created after the war.

I know it is far, far from innocent, but none the less, It annoys me to see it have to take that from such an ideologically repugnant state as Iran

[Keyser Soze]

By looking at the map you an also understand Turkey more. Turkey is caught between the interest of itself, Europe, Russia and the Middle East.

1. What does Turkey want? To be part of the EU and to not take a flood of muslims from Middle East. Turkey wants the financial benefits of being in the EU and and the security it brings. European people don't want Turkey in the EU because of it huge muslim population.

2. What does Russia want? It wants its military ships to be able to get out of South West Russia or Crimea, and out through the Bosphorous, to able to give it leverage to threaten oil and shipping lanes of US and European interests. The US and Europe do not want Russia's ships coming through, so currently they don't. In return the EU will not allow Turkey into the EU but it allows it to forward on Syrians and the rest of them from Middle East, and into Europe. So that was Europe's deal to keep Turkey from allowing Russian naval ships through.

3. What does Ukraine want? Money from oil pipelines coming around the Caucuses. Does Turkey help US and Europe with Ukraine? No. Why would they? Currently they want to earn the pipeline fees by expanding the "Ceyhan-Kırıkkale Oil Pipeline" into Bulgaria and be the go-between for Middle East and European oil. Russia does not want this as they prefer to pipe oil and gas into Europe and lock the distribution revenues themselves, so Russia and Turkey have natural baked in there.

Turn your eyes to Morocco soon. Morocco have big gas finds. The UK and Europe now want to create direct pipelines for this into Spain, to reduce gas dependency on Russia and Middle East. Morocco will be a friend of Europe soon that's for sure. Best keep them onside :hehe:

[Keyser Soze]

There are heavier sources to read, but a basic one here on Wiki, which explains the division between Sunni and Shia muslims:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shia_crescent#:~:text=Areas%20in%20the%20Shia%20Cr escent,and%20Alevi%20groups%20in%20Turkey.

You can follow the primary sources and speeches referenced here. But basically, Shias MUST have strict Islamic fundamentalists religious leaders as head of state, and the Koran defines the laws (Iran, Taliban in Afghanistan etc. ) This is why in these countries women get raped, stoned, prevented from working etc. Because it doesn't follow the Koran and it breaks the law. And because of that, these countries wage holy war on Christians, Jews and want to convert or oppress Sunnis. It is not as simple as saying "If you are from Country X you are this type". Because reality is that most Arab countries have mixed tribes. What matters is who are the elite and power brokers in that country - that defines their behaviour.

Sunni muslims can have a royal family or elected government (Saudi, Bahrain, Turkey, Morocco, Egypt usually). Islam and aspects of the Koran feature in life but do not define all the rules and values. You don't see people justifying rape or stoning of women, or preventing women working with this sect.) These are often friendlier countries to The West as they are generally more relaxed.

[stevo]

By looking at the map you an also understand Turkey more. Turkey is caught between the interest of itself, Europe, Russia and the Middle East.

1. What does Turkey want? To be part of the EU and to not take a flood of muslims from Middle East. Turkey wants the financial benefits of being in the EU and and the security it brings. European people don't want Turkey in the EU because of it huge muslim population.

2. What does Russia want? It wants its military ships to be able to get out of South West Russia or Crimea, and out through the Bosphorous, to able to give it leverage to threaten oil and shipping lanes of US and European interests. The US and Europe do not want Russia's ships coming through, so currently they don't. In return the EU will not allow Turkey into the EU but it allows it to forward on Syrians and the rest of them from Middle East, and into Europe. So that was Europe's deal to keep Turkey from allowing Russian naval ships through.

3. What does Ukraine want? Money from oil pipelines coming around the Caucuses. Does Turkey help US and Europe with Ukraine? No. Why would they? Currently they want to earn the pipeline fees by expanding the "Ceyhan-Kırıkkale Oil Pipeline" into Bulgaria and be the go-between for Middle East and European oil. Russia does not want this as they prefer to pipe oil and gas into Europe and lock the distribution revenues themselves, so Russia and Turkey have natural baked in there.

Turn your eyes to Morocco soon. Morocco have big gas finds. The UK and Europe now want to create direct pipelines for this into Spain, to reduce gas dependency on Russia and Middle East. Morocco will be a friend of Europe soon that's for sure. Best keep them onside :hehe:

Sounds like a strong argument to get Turkey into the EU asap.

[A Quiet Monkfish]

Yes, but I also highlighted in my comments, energy policy and global trade, shipping routes (for navy access & trade), as well as religion (dominant muslim factions such as Shia v Sunni, let alone Arab v Jew) and local tribalism add to it. Hugely complex and hugely unstable by the fact that all these factors are changing month to month, let alone year to year. Anyone who is looking for a Northern Ireland type settlement and think we will "solve" this is either an extreme optimist, an idiot or a liar. In my view, this will always be with us in our lifetime and beyond. The average Joe probably considers the events through what the BBC & Sky News tell them, what their political allegiances tell them to side with, how their friends think, how they feel about religion, or how they feel about humanity. But humanity or "their people" isn't what the people behind this war are thinking, and that is the saddest part.

The first time I realised it wasn't what the news was telling me, or what was right or wrong, was a book on oil trade and energy market conflict. Like many of us, I suspected that greed was at play, but did not know the how's and why's. The Blair invasion of Iraq around 2003 got my goat, and I started asking questions about it. When a relative of mine who worked at the high end in oil (and was engaged to an American oil 'diplomat') tipped me off I read the book he recommended by an oil-insider and oil analyst. After I read it I was on holiday with him in the Caribbean and he asked what I thought. I said "Sick. Pretty ruthless too.". He said "Yeah, I work in that industry and I keep hearing stories all the time, but my other half's job confirms it. This game is ugly. I will do a few more years, take the money and get out of it and retire." He did.

When I read that book I was blown away and chased the primary sources, of which one was a gas & oil map of pipelines, as I was learning about doing oil trading back around 2004-2006. As always some pipelines are being built, others in construction, and others in consideration. These days there are several Oil & gas maps online, but you should look at them alongside a normal map and see why some countries will be fought over, and others not. So by looking at the map below you can see how important being friendly to certain countries is, in order to maintain trade and energy stability. Consider the routes to pipe oil and gas from source to European and Asian markets. Consider how military can move their navies. Consider where your goods come from and where they go to be sold. If you have an IQ over 60, you can begin to see where the real motivations are, and why some countries go to war a lot, or why they get special exemptions.

https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-oil-infrastructure-tracker/tracker-map/

The Suez is important to get oil exports to Europe cheaply. Shipping is always the cheapest form of logistics, over trucking or air freight. Trade also goes through Suez. The US & West need a friendly leader in charge of Egypt and Israel owning that land free of challenge. If so, the Suez should present a fairly friendly path for all global trade to reach US and Europe. Oil can be pumped from Saudi via pipelines through friendly pipelines in friendly countries, or via cargo ships out of Suez. Providing these pipelines for oil and gas are protected, or trade routes through Suez, then inflation stays stable, so should interest rates, and life is The West is easier. If these are threatened the opposite happens. Look at The Suez canal history in 1950s and Yom Kippur War of 1970s, and see the effects on inflation, historic interest rates and our economy if these are not secure. In addition, if Israel lose their territory to Iran, then being next to Egypt, Egypt may also be the next target to fall under Iranian influence, and Shia militias or Muslim Brotherhood people re-emerging inside Egypt, and further trouble for global trade and energy market stability.

If you want to throw in some leftfield ideas, google the Ben Gurion canal. The Ben Gurion canal was a project in the 1960s where the Israelis wanted to help the West by competing with Suez by having a separate canal. This would make shipping prices more competitive, but also make money for Israel through shipping fees. Some speculate that Israel's recent moves to clear out Gaza Strip is connected to eliminating threats to a renewed Ben Gurion canal project, now that Israel is far richer.

https://www.newarab.com/news/what-israels-ben-gurion-canal-plan-and-why-gaza-matters

I also speculate (and see it more likely) that Israel sees an opportunity to straighten the Saudi pipeline right through West Bank and out to the sea via Israeli ports. Israel has already made some big gas finds offshore so the port of Haifa and maybe another one will boom in trade soon as refineries refine the stuff nearby. At the moment, it pulls back and goes into Lebanon, but Hezbollah are pirating the pipeline and taking money to arm themselves, so the line is a target. If you look at the oil pipeline link I put further up, it would suit Saudi interests (pro-Israeli) and Israel (commercial fees) to get rid of that Z-bend in the "Trans-Arabian Oil Pipeline" pipe, make it shorter and cut out Iran-supporting Lebanon by pushing the "Trans-Arabian Oil Pipeline" in a shorter straight line through West Bank and out to sea. But it would be currently too risky for Israel and Saudi to build it, with Hamas and Israel-hating Palestinians in there. "Clear them out and build it" is what I think they are up to. The Ben Gurion canal may come later, but I think the Saudi pipeline is the real driver here.

In summary, and I hope it answers a few questions, trying to view this through partisan lines will see the average reader making error after error in forecasts. Unfortunately, the Middle East is a chessboard for big player chess strategy, and oil, trade and maritime logistics driving key decisions and wars. What matters to local people there is a side hobby to the US and West, China, Russia, Israel and Iran. Everyone else in the region is being played by these big players - yes in the name of greed and profit, but also securing and growing their own military and trade empires.

Nothing changes. This no different to Russia-Turkey war over the Bosphorus shipping lanes, Russia-Japan war over sea access, Spanish and Portuguese invasions of Latin American for gold and silver, British invasion of India for silk, cotton precious metals and staging posts for Asian conquest, Second World War German occupation of Greece for maritime naval access, Austro-Hungarian pre-World War One attack on Serbia over the Sanjak railway route, or Russian invasion of Afghanistan (to get near the Pakistan sea access). History is repeating itself. Trade, security of logistical routes, naval / military routes, money, empire. Old ruses, new excuses. Only the players and details change.

From what I understand, Britain's decision to enter the conflict in 1914 was swayed by the fact that Germany was close to completing the railway all the way to the Iraq [Mesoptamia] oilfields.

[Keyser Soze]

From what I understand, Britain's decision to enter the conflict in 1914 was swayed by the fact that Germany was close to completing the railway all the way to the Iraq [Mesoptamia] oilfields.

An entire research paperon it is here, written by an unfortunately named Mr Wank

https://www.jstor.org/stable/4205566

The murder of the heir to the throne was a flashpoint trigger but not the main reason. Competition for those logistical routes were key for planned expansion for Germany and Austro-Hungarian empire. You’re not wrong in saying what you say. England was friends with Germany, but couldn’t let Germany/Austro-Hungarian get stronger. Access to those fields would give the Ottomans, Germans and Austro-Hungarians unlimited fuel supplies to their military. The Sanjak railway was the first warning signal of Austro-Hungarian desires for expansion.

I didn’t know that until about ten years ago. I read a book called The Raven of Zurich by Felix Somary. Nowadays you would pay a few grand for that book but a trader friend scanned it all for me for free, as he had readit three times ans is a hell of a financial trader.

Felix Somary was a Swiss Banker who moved money for the rich and governments. He finaced major constructions projecfs but also advised the US, UK and European governments. He was a cross betwern The Rothchilds and Henry Kissinger I suppose. Whenever bankers, central bankers, politicians or major programmes had issues he would be called and paid fees.

But he was also a trader and speculator. He had inside info and profited from it. If you want to connect dots between politics, trading, currencies, gold etc it is the book to read. Incredible. He wrote in that book that hs knew the furore over the Sankaj railway was a signal for him to leave Switzerland for the US, buy gold and Norwegian currency, and knew war was coming. He also saw the Russo-Turkish war, Russo-Japan wars and second world war, and predicted them all.

[A Quiet Monkfish]

An entire research paperon it is here, written by an unfortunately named Mr Wank

https://www.jstor.org/stable/4205566

The murder of the heir to the throne was a flashpoint trigger but not the main reason. Competition for those logistical routes were key for planned expansion for Germany and Austro-Hungarian empire. You’re not wrong in saying what you say. England was friends with Germany, but couldn’t let Germany/Austro-Hungarian get stronger. Access to those fields would give the Ottomans, Germans and Austro-Hungarians unlimited fuel supplies to their military. The Sanjak railway was the first warning signal of Austro-Hungarian desires for expansion.

I didn’t know that until about ten years ago. I read a book called The Raven of Zurich by Felix Somary. Nowadays you would pay a few grand for that book but a trader friend scanned it all for me for free, as he had readit three times ans is a hell of a financial trader.

Felix Somary was a Swiss Banker who moved money for the rich and governments. He finaced major constructions projecfs but also advised the US, UK and European governments. He was a cross betwern The Rothchilds and Henry Kissinger I suppose. Whenever bankers, central bankers, politicians or major programmes had issues he would be called and paid fees.

But he was also a trader and speculator. He had inside info and profited from it. If you want to connect dots between politics, trading, currencies, gold etc it is the book to read. Incredible. He wrote in that book that hs knew the furore over the Sankaj railway was a signal for him to leave Switzerland for the US, buy gold and Norwegian currency, and knew war was coming. He also saw the Russo-Turkish war, Russo-Japan wars and second world war, and predicted them all.

That's fascinating. Re.Raven of Zurich, unavailable as you say, but have just been able to download it.

[truthpaste]

Sounds like a strong argument to get Turkey into the EU asap.

6142

Being in both Asia & Europe and it's critical control of Black Sea shipping towards the Med, Turkey is certainly a key country and always will be. It has been thought (long term) that Russia would covet the warm water port to the Med that Israel would provide, but this week with Israel suddenly becoming an unwanted drain on the Iran/ Russia weapons love-in, then Russia has a more pressing interest in what happens next between ancient Persia & Israel.

[life on mars]

Iran fights proxy wars ,
Everyone in that area hates the jews.
Poorest strip the land can afford and army plus weapons, construction tunnels .
Who funds Hezbollah , Hamas and Houthis ??
If surrounded by hate ,not chance on peace , what woudl you do to protect your people.
Russia annex Crimea in 2014 and then invades Belarus and Ukraine fifteen thousand deaths , not so much marching and shouting about that ..


The persecution of Jews has been a major event in Jewish history, prompting shifting waves of refugees and the formation of diaspora communities. As early as 605 BCE, Jews who lived in the Neo-Babylonian Empire were persecuted and deported. Antisemitism was also practiced by the governments of many different empires (Roman empire) and the adherents of many different religions (Christianity), and it was also widespread in many different regions of the world (Middle East and Islamic).



Hamas slaughtered 1,260 innocent peace loving festivals goes, including rape , mutilation of women and the death of babies , bear in mind now these are no radical Jews ..

Gaza innocent are dying not becasue of Israel its because of Hamas a terrorist organization hidden cowardly under schools , hospitals under the ground of innocent people some probably protect them .

Gazza folk starve , Hamas leaders are very rich and well fed and funded its a disgrace s,very sad for innconcets only a rout will clear them out like the Nazis in the WW2 .. AWFUL .

Hamas kill as many Palestinians as the Israelites do , instead of arming , feed you people or is it easier to lean on the WORLDS HATRED OF THE JEWISH STATE AND PEOPLE


From Wiki : Jews were commonly used as scapegoats for tragedies and disasters such as in the Black Death Persecutions, the 1066 Granada Massacre, the Massacre of 1391 in Spain, the many Pogroms in the Russian Empire, and the tenets of Nazism prior to and during World War II, which led to The Holocaust and the murder of six million Jews. ..

From the river to the sea is about annihilation of a people and state just pick up the philosophy and statements of the likes of Syria , Ira, Hamas etc etc ...

Like or or not it seems the persecution of the Jews is sort of waved away in many quarters compared to islamophobia , Black peoples racism , homophobia hatred .. they are pretty far down the league in my humble view

[stevo]

Gaza innocent are dying not becasue of Israel its because of Hamas a terrorist organization hidden cowardly under schools , hospitals under the ground of innocent people some probably protect them .

Gazza folk starve , Hamas leaders are very rich and well fed and funded its a disgrace s,very sad for innconcets only a rout will clear them out like the Nazis in the WW2 .. AWFUL .

Hamas kill as many Palestinians as the Israelites do , instead of arming , feed you people or is it easier to lean on the WORLDS HATRED OF THE JEWISH STATE AND PEOPLE



This is the biggest load of tosh I have ever read on this forum.

[truthpaste]

This is the biggest load of tosh I have ever read on this forum.

Strange how you and others automatically believe everything said by sworn terrorists and assume they are honourable individuals who have had no hand in the needless death of thousands of their citizens, yet you trash anything stated by anyone connected to Israel?

[jon1959]

Wow!



Hamas slaughtered 1,260 innocent peace loving festivals goes, including rape , mutilation of women and the death of babies , bear in mind now these are no radical Jews ..

Almost totally wrong. 364 festival goers were killed on 7 October, along with over 340 IDF soldiers and others, mainly Israeli citizens in border kibbutzim. IDF soldiers in border posts have been shooting dead hundreds of unarmed Palestinian protestors for years without any diplomatic or judicial penalty. A large minority of those killed were victims of indiscriminate Israeli shell and helicopter fire - as has since come to light through the Israeli print media and television. 37 of the dead were aged under 19 (6 were aged 5 or younger).

Hamas was guilty of atrocities on 7 October - probably including rape and certainly civilian deaths and kidnapping. But the weeks after 7 October were full of Israeli 'atrocity porn' propaganda that cited 40 butchered babies, dismemberment of pregnant women and many other horrors. The US and other states parroted these claims for a while - then distanced themselves from the lies. Hamas's (and the others who followed them through the fence) real actions included war crimes. As did Israel's on the day and in the 7 months since.

Gaza innocent are dying not becasue of Israel its because of Hamas a terrorist organization hidden cowardly under schools , hospitals under the ground of innocent people some probably protect them .

Gaza's people are dying because the Israeli state is killing them. It is very simple and clear. The death toll (including those under the rubble) is near 45,000 with almost 100,000 injured (some seriously disabled). 70% are women and children - alongside medics, nurses, journalists, aid workers, police trying to distribute food and thousands of other non-combatants. Disease and starvation (Israeli government policy) may well kill the same number again.

Hamas are a guerrilla resistance movement totally outnumbered (20 to 1) and outgunned. Of course they are acting like all guerrilla armies in history. A third of their fighters are dead in the face of overwhelming odds. You are looking in the wrong direction for cowards in this conflict.

Gazza folk starve , Hamas leaders are very rich and well fed and funded its a disgrace s,very sad for innconcets only a rout will clear them out like the Nazis in the WW2 .. AWFUL .

The senior political leadership of Hamas lives in exile - often in comfort and security. Their members do not. They get funding from Qatar and Iran - but were also funded and promoted by Israel (especially Netanyahu and Likud) in their early days to undermine the secular Fatah/PLO (and also promoted to maintain a split between Palestinian parties and territories after 2007)

Hamas kill as many Palestinians as the Israelites do , instead of arming , feed you people or is it easier to lean on the WORLDS HATRED OF THE JEWISH STATE AND PEOPLE

More incontinent nonsense. Whether Hamas hold arms or build tunnels it has been the Israelis (with some help from Egypt) who have decided what food, water, power, medicines, jobs.... etc are available for the people of Gaza, not Hamas (who distribute resources and maintain the civil infrastructure as far as possible). Israel has conducted a seige of Gaza since 2005-7. Nothing much gets in or out (bar smuggled items) without their say so.

From the river to the sea is about annihilation of a people and state just pick up the philosophy and statements of the likes of Syria , Ira, Hamas etc etc ...

'From The River To The Sea' has been used as a slogan for almost 50 years. When Palestine protestors around the world chant 'From The River To The Sea Palestine Will Be Free' they are chanting for peace and justice in the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. Many of those chanting in London, New York, Paris and dozens of other places are Jews themselves. When Hamas and other Islamist actors have used the phrase in the past they have usually done it to call for the end of the Jewish Supremacist state (and replacement with an Islamic state). There has been an overtone of threat to Jewish citizens of Israel - but that is usually 'read in' to the slogan. Since 2017 Hamas have (albeit with contradictions between different spokespeople) accepted the principle of a two state solution with a Jewish Israeli state (including second class Arab citizens) alongside a Palestinian state based on the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza. When Netanyahu and Likud (and others to their political right) use the phrase -never with western censure - they mean a single Jewish Supremacist state with Palestinians ethnically cleansed or reduced to a small 'guest worker' population.

Like or or not it seems the persecution of the Jews is sort of waved away in many quarters compared to islamophobia , Black peoples racism , homophobia hatred .. they are pretty far down the league in my humble view

In my experience you have described the exact opposite of reality!

[jon1959]

Strange how you and others automatically believe everything said by sworn terrorists and assume they are honourable individuals who have had no hand in the needless death of thousands of their citizens, yet you trash anything stated by anyone connected to Israel?

Maybe that is the biggest load of tosh ever on this forum?

Maybe not - the competition is strong!

I won't speak for others but I certainly do not 'automatically believe everything....' said by Hamas. I believe their Gaza casualty figures (mostly corroborated anyway by aid agencies, the UN and other states) but not many of their other claims. I also believe a few things that come out of the Israeli government and IDF - but not much of it. That is based on decades of reading and listening to their lies and deflections. It is second nature. They are very good at it (better than their regional enemies). They see information/propaganda as a continuation of war by other means. Churchill said: "In wartime, truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies." Israel considers itself to be in a Forever War and the bodyguard of lies is always there!

[stevo]

Strange how you and others automatically believe everything said by sworn terrorists and assume they are honourable individuals who have had no hand in the needless death of thousands of their citizens, yet you trash anything stated by anyone connected to Israel?

This is the second biggest load of tosh I’ve ever read on this forum.

[jon1959]

Interesting opinion piece from within Israel:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/apr/15/benjamin-netanyahu-faces-tough-questions-iran-israel-forever-war

[Wash DC Blue]

An entire research paperon it is here, written by an unfortunately named Mr Wank

https://www.jstor.org/stable/4205566

The murder of the heir to the throne was a flashpoint trigger but not the main reason. Competition for those logistical routes were key for planned expansion for Germany and Austro-Hungarian empire. You’re not wrong in saying what you say. England was friends with Germany, but couldn’t let Germany/Austro-Hungarian get stronger. Access to those fields would give the Ottomans, Germans and Austro-Hungarians unlimited fuel supplies to their military. The Sanjak railway was the first warning signal of Austro-Hungarian desires for expansion.

I didn’t know that until about ten years ago. I read a book called The Raven of Zurich by Felix Somary. Nowadays you would pay a few grand for that book but a trader friend scanned it all for me for free, as he had readit three times ans is a hell of a financial trader.

Felix Somary was a Swiss Banker who moved money for the rich and governments. He finaced major constructions projecfs but also advised the US, UK and European governments. He was a cross betwern The Rothchilds and Henry Kissinger I suppose. Whenever bankers, central bankers, politicians or major programmes had issues he would be called and paid fees.

But he was also a trader and speculator. He had inside info and profited from it. If you want to connect dots between politics, trading, currencies, gold etc it is the book to read. Incredible. He wrote in that book that hs knew the furore over the Sankaj railway was a signal for him to leave Switzerland for the US, buy gold and Norwegian currency, and knew war was coming. He also saw the Russo-Turkish war, Russo-Japan wars and second world war, and predicted them all.

Sounds like a fascinating guy.
Why would his book not be available?
It’s got some great reviews on Goodreads.

[Dorcus]

This is the biggest load of tosh I have ever read on this forum.

Surely you must have encountered his incoherent rants before Stevo? They're all tosh and this is just more of it.

[truthpaste]

This is the second biggest load of tosh I’ve ever read on this forum.

How devastating!
I never expect to be in anything but a minority which is perfectly fine, the years I spent running with the crowd were mainly tedious.
People who declare a view to be rubbish but can't explain why are simply wasting everyone's time, but I suppose they somehow feel included in the conversation even though they have no hope of engaging it.
My observation (above) stands and people continue to verify it post on post.

In the context of this subject, it's far more important what happens next and how this plays out.

[stevo]

I’ll respond in full when I’m next at a keyboard.

[Keyser Soze]

Newswires not giving any detail yet other than that the War Cabinet in Israel is preparing a response, but I’ll make a call early.

Out of the four scenarios I put forward, I said unless we have a ceasefire then Scenario 1 or 3 are the highest probability.

I now see enough signals here to see that we will move one to scenario 1: Neither Israel nor Iran back down and they will duke it out, with proxy backing.

On details it seems to be that Israel will now launch a big air attack against Iran. It will either be directly on Iranian territory, or they will attack Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG) in Iraqi territory, or a combination of both.

Iraq is interesting. Because if you look at the map the attack against IRG in Iraq makes sense because it cuts off military supply lines between Iran, through Iraq, into areas such as Lebanon for Hezbollah, running through thr Shia-muslim “crescent”. The second reason is that Iraqi leaders have been speaking to the G7 in recent days. The only reason you would do this is to seek permission to fly into their airspace, or permission to land troops unopposed. This would annoy China, because China has been cutting out the US on oil deals and securing long term oil deals with Iraq, whilst supporting Tehran in influencing Iraw to allow IRG to operate in Iraq. So if Iraq grant Israel / US / G7 to land troops and / or use its airspace it is effectively selling Iran / China and siding with US / G7 / Israel - a double crossing! Either way I think a big air attack is coming, supported by missiles, on Iran or Iraq, or a combo.

Here is another reason why. Look at airlines decisions since Sunday / Monday. They have been briefed bt air traffic control for sure!!!

Germany’s Lufthansa has suspended its regular flights to and from Tel Aviv, Erbil, and Amman, up to and including Monday. Flights to Beirut and Tehran will remain suspended until at least Thursday.

KLM cancelled all flights to and from Tel Aviv until Tuesday, a spokesperson for the Dutch arm of Air France says.

Britain’s easyJet on Sunday paused operations to and from Tel Aviv. The carrier said in an emailed statement to Reuters that it will temporarily pause operations to and from Tel Aviv until April 21.

Wizz Air says it had cancelled most of its flights to and from Tel Aviv, Saturday through Monday.

Finnair has suspended operations in Iranian airspace until further notice, which may cause longer flight times on flights from Doha. A spokesperson said the Finnish carrier will reroute over Egypt, resulting in delays of a “few minutes.”


Eyes down. Tin hats on. Let’s see what tomorrow’s news brings.

[Gofer Blue]

Now that Iran is starting to be recognised as a bit of a pariah state by other neighouring Arab states, could a people's revolution from within be on the cards?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68823348

[truthpaste]

Now that Iran is starting to be recognised as a bit of a pariah state by other neighouring Arab states, could a people's revolution from within be on the cards?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68823348

Thanks for this update. It's not a million miles away from other rabid anti-Israeli groups in Gaza and Lebanon, leaders using their position to acheive their evil agenda despite the wishes of their citizens.
The position of Jordan during the recent overnight attack was also noteworthy.

[Keyser Soze]

Thanks for this update. It's not a million miles away from other rabid anti-Israeli groups in Gaza and Lebanon, leaders using their position to acheive their evil agenda despite the wishes of their citizens.
The position of Jordan during the recent overnight attack was also noteworthy.

Like Saudi and Egypt, Jordan is mainly Sunni muslim - they will back Israel and cannot stand the Shia fundamentalists. They hate Iran.

[Keyser Soze]

Now that Iran is starting to be recognised as a bit of a pariah state by other neighouring Arab states, could a people's revolution from within be on the cards?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68823348

By re-installing Trump's sanctions, thereby reversing Biden's idiotic decision to allow Iran to earn billions of dollars, it may well financially cripple the regime. That would reduce financial supplies to regional proxy support terrorists such as Hamas and Hezbollah. None of these groups can be paid well without Iranian funding. Kill the funding, weaken these groups, then Iran's "Supreme" Leader comes under heat. This is the best way to pull Iran's pants down and set their people free.

Hopefully we will then see the women and public do to the Ayatollah, the IRG and the rest of their nutters what was done to them - a damn good stoning.

[the other bob wilson]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-68830092

[Keyser Soze]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-68830092

Yep. Seems they did what I suspected and attacked some IRG targets in Iraq also. Tense days ahead for sure. Israel could have hammered those targets but chose not.

It’s a clever cat and mouse game. They are saying “We know where you nuclear facilitiies and airbases are. We can strike if we want to. This is a warning - don’t push us”.

Up to Iran to take the message, as they could both shakes hands at 1-1. But as I keep saying, they are strategically opposed. Will Iran’s ego be able withstand it and refrain? Will the people of Iran now start making noises about their leadership?

I suspect the answer to both is No, and this will slowly escalate in a slow tit-for-tat strikes, without anything seismic. I don’t see either egos backing down soon. It may take several rounds of ratcheting up before they both smell the coffee and orchestrate a temporary ceasefire.

[JamesWales]

What are the likely scenarios do you think, if liberal Iranians rose up against the leadership? Presumably there is a geographic split in opposition to the regime and so a civil war is most likely, with groups chipping in from outside?

Hard to see it transitioning smoothly.

[Keyser Soze]

Well there are plenty of them. Only 30% are Shia muslims. The biggest minority, but the dominant block.

https://theconversation.com/irans-secular-shift-new-survey-reveals-huge-changes-in-religious-beliefs-145253

At the moment it is calm, because the reversal of Trump's sanctions by Biden allows tens of billions of oil revenues to come in. They can feed their population, provide for the military, pay their IRG well, and pay to fund Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah, whilst showcasing their nuclear programme on television. It's a pretty good ride for many in the country when they can trade on global oil markets, so the leadership, its military and Iranian Revolutionary Guard provide well funded power for the leadership.

Hopefully, Biden will now see sense, and act on his threat to put back in place the same sanctions, or hopefully even harder. If that were to happen there will be discontent from the 70% non-Shias. Cast your mind back to just two years ago when sanctions were in place:

1. Nuclear programme in trouble
2. Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah non-existent.
3. Collapsed economy with riots everywhere and mass starvation
4. Negligible power exercised in middle east

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-63154987

So from a Western perspective what we hope strategically, to avoid direct war, is all of that to re-occur and collapse from the inside and civil war to occur. But this time the Chinese are behind the scenes and have agreed oil deals with Iran (and same whilst influencing Iraq). So that will provide a financial buffer if US / Western sanctions kick in, even tough the Chinese will not pay anywhere near market rates for oil. Some money is better that very little, so I have a feeling that all we can hope for is reduced / slower nuclear programme, and funding of proxies to dry up (Hamas, Houthis, Hezbollah).

If forced to choose where to spend reduced oil revenues from sanctions, Iran being the cute strategic lot they are, and advised militarily by the even more strategic Chinese, they will de-prioritise military / religious expansion, spend the reduced Chinese oil revenues on a more defensive strategy of protecting their people and borders, and the IRG will retract back inside Iran to defend the leadership. This will allow them to buy time and live to fight another day, sit out US elections and see what happens. The Iranians are the wise ones in the Middle East. They know when to attack and defend that is for sure, and have been wired this way for many centuries. They will not overreach if they cannot afford it.

So it's all on the sanctions. If they are the same or harder than Trump's then Iran will quieten down and become defensive. If the sanctions are poor or not executed, expect on and off hostilities to continue.

[Keyser Soze]

..and if you want terminal destruction of Iran there is another way but it comes at a high cost.

1. Do a deal with Turkey to block Iranian oil flows on pipelines.
2. Put ships in the Straight of Hormuz and block any Iranian cargo.

See map below and guide on the area....

https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/irans-influence-middle-east/

Unfortunately it won't stop oil going to China, but that is what the importance of Iraq and Afghanistan was. In addition to cutting off trade with China, the combination of US troops in Iraq (to left of Iran) and in Afghanistan (to right of Iran) was a "Policy of Encirclement" to cut off allies, military supply lines and trade to the East and West, and keep Iran honest and isolated.

But you cannot sell that to the Western public and it is expensive as we saw. Necessary to contain Iran and strategically sound, but costly. We have now done the public's bidding and got out. The combination of getting out, plus Biden's sanctions reversal, is what allowed Iran to trade with China, and do damage close to Israel. Ethically sound but strategically poor and political and economically dangerous.

The map is just a chessboard. Once you see it that way, you can see what needs to be done, regardless of the ethics.

[life on mars]

Iran just went awfully quiet.

I wonder what Israeli actually damaged and took out last night..

Thats what we should do to Putin.

Call the bluff.

Show your strength.

[life on mars]

..and if you want terminal destruction of Iran there is another way but it comes at a high cost.

1. Do a deal with Turkey to block Iranian oil flows on pipelines.
2. Put ships in the Straight of Hormuz and block any Iranian cargo.

See map below and guide on the area....

https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/irans-influence-middle-east/

Unfortunately it won't stop oil going to China, but that is what the importance of Iraq and Afghanistan was. In addition to cutting off trade with China, the combination of US troops in Iraq (to left of Iran) and in Afghanistan (to right of Iran) was a "Policy of Encirclement" to cut off allies, military supply lines and trade to the East and West, and keep Iran honest and isolated.

But you cannot sell that to the Western public and it is expensive as we saw. Necessary to contain Iran and strategically sound, but costly. We have now done the public's bidding and got out. The combination of getting out, plus Biden's sanctions reversal, is what allowed Iran to trade with China, and do damage close to Israel. Ethically sound but strategically poor and political and economically dangerous.

The map is just a chessboard. Once you see it that way, you can see what needs to be done, regardless of the ethics.

The other important point to consider are the young people of Iran have had enough, they are rising up which makes it difficult for Israel to send the real big weapons in. Revolution from within maybe the answer, we could also see the same in Israel after this is all over .

[Keyser Soze]

Well we may soon get our confirmation. One strike by Iran, and a response by Israel could have been written off as 1-1 and left there. I noted this line from my Bloomberg news terminal feed:

Iranian Foreign Minister: If Israel wants to do another adventurism and acts against the interests of Iran, next response will be immediate and at maximum level — Reuters

But that was before last night. Israel struck a military base inside Iraq. As I said earlier in the week that will be Iran’s Iranian Revolutionary Guard bases and supply lines that I thought they might go for.

So to piece it all together, what is the situation room now? Is this a tit for tat? Regional war? Proxy war? Or the start if World War III?

US/G7/Europe’s position?
——————————-
- US and G7 are united in saying they stand by Israel
- But equally are re-applying sanctions to Iran,but are also claiming they are telling Israel to stop.
- US are striving to send another £1bn to Israel to “defend itself”

So the US and G7 have a position that is presented as “We are not involved”, or “Supporting Israel’s Defence”. But they know full well they are paying for Israel’s attacks. So they are playing Iran at their own game: pretending to be not involved, but really they are.

Israel and Iran’s war position
———————————
- Iran bombed Israel, and Israel gave a small retaliation 1-1
- Israel have conducted “round two” strikes v Iran, with the Iranian Foreign Minister making the statement further up
- If Iran responds, or Iran and Israel respond in no order, we no doubt have at least a proxy war started,m. With Hamas, Hezbollah and Hourhis already involved, you can already make the case that this has escalated to a combination of a proxy and regional war.

What is now Iraq’s position?
——————————-
- This could be the ultimate turning point. Iraq was Sunni-run, but is now Shia influenced by Iran
- Iran believes that Iraq and Iran should be unified
- Iraq is a military and oil pipeline supply line on the chessboard to Syria and Lebanon
- Iraq allows IRG into its zone
- Iraq has done a huge long term oil deal with China to give it low cost oil, with pipelines previously designated for global oil prices and the West

Iraq allowed the Israelis to fly over and strike Iran the other night. Why? Have they been cosying up to Iran and China because the US exited, and are now shafting them both now the US and Israel are involved? Or did they allow a one-off, were conned by US and Israel? Soon, Iraq will be forced to choose a side. This is pivotal.

First Iran hid and was forced to show it’s hand - China next?
———————
As China support Iran, and have been supporting Iraq in oil deals, what will China now do?

If the US and Israel continue this hitting of Iranian IRG positions, this will not only isolate Hamas and Hezbollah by cutting off military support and oil pipelines, probably force us to see who Iraq will support in an escalation, but also China if their ally (Iran) and oil supply is threatened.

Iran was forced to reveal it’s face from behind the curtains, but what do China now do? Keep funding Iran? Step in and protect their oil supplies? Or pull away, drop Iranian support, retreat to the shadows, preserve their money for a fight in Taiwan? That cheap Iraqi oil would have been quite handy in their naval power ambitions and the desire to supplying all those ships with cheap foreign oil for a probable economic blockade of Taiwan to control 85% of the world’s semi-conductors.

For the reasons above, I believe if Iraq keeps being pummelled, China controls the decision of whether or not this becomes WWW III by:

1. Intervening in Iraq to protect their oil or put military into Iran at least (to defend their regional ally), thus escalating a regional war to World War III with two economic superpowers if Us v China fighting - direct or by proxy.

This is akin to Russia and France (regional superpower) defending Serbia, and Germany (empire superpower) defending Austro-Hungarian empire (empire super power) in World War One.

2. Drop Iraq and Iran, surrendering control of direct oil supplies, and China’s pipelines going into Middle East, but also surrendering their regional influence of countries controlling commercial shipping lanes (Straights of Hormuz and Suez), and re-conceding control of this zone to Western powers

What happens in Iraq is now pivotal. I would say in the next 1-2 months we will have definitive answers if we revert to status quo, a continuation of a regional war or World War III. Because Iraq isn’t a meaningful military, we will soon find out what the big boys want from all this.

[Keyser Soze]

Curveball here. I just saw an update…

“Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan receives the head of the Hamas political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, in Istanbul.”

Hard to see what that is. Either…

1. Asking for Turkish financial or military support (probably on behalf of Iran)

2. Asking Turkey to agree to cut off Middle East energy supplies to EU (Turkey won’t do that)

3. Communicate what Iran’s intentions are and seeking their views

I didn’t expect Turkey to be talking to Hamas, so this one surprises me.

[Swiss Peter]

Well there are plenty of them. Only 30% are Shia muslims. The biggest minority, but the dominant block.

https://theconversation.com/irans-secular-shift-new-survey-reveals-huge-changes-in-religious-beliefs-145253

At the moment it is calm, because the reversal of Trump's sanctions by Biden allows tens of billions of oil revenues to come in. They can feed their population, provide for the military, pay their IRG well, and pay to fund Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah, whilst showcasing their nuclear programme on television. It's a pretty good ride for many in the country when they can trade on global oil markets, so the leadership, its military and Iranian Revolutionary Guard provide well funded power for the leadership.

Hopefully, Biden will now see sense, and act on his threat to put back in place the same sanctions, or hopefully even harder. If that were to happen there will be discontent from the 70% non-Shias. Cast your mind back to just two years ago when sanctions were in place:

1. Nuclear programme in trouble
2. Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah non-existent.
3. Collapsed economy with riots everywhere and mass starvation
4. Negligible power exercised in middle east

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-63154987

So from a Western perspective what we hope strategically, to avoid direct war, is all of that to re-occur and collapse from the inside and civil war to occur. But this time the Chinese are behind the scenes and have agreed oil deals with Iran (and same whilst influencing Iraq). So that will provide a financial buffer if US / Western sanctions kick in, even tough the Chinese will not pay anywhere near market rates for oil. Some money is better that very little, so I have a feeling that all we can hope for is reduced / slower nuclear programme, and funding of proxies to dry up (Hamas, Houthis, Hezbollah).

If forced to choose where to spend reduced oil revenues from sanctions, Iran being the cute strategic lot they are, and advised militarily by the even more strategic Chinese, they will de-prioritise military / religious expansion, spend the reduced Chinese oil revenues on a more defensive strategy of protecting their people and borders, and the IRG will retract back inside Iran to defend the leadership. This will allow them to buy time and live to fight another day, sit out US elections and see what happens. The Iranians are the wise ones in the Middle East. They know when to attack and defend that is for sure, and have been wired this way for many centuries. They will not overreach if they cannot afford it.

So it's all on the sanctions. If they are the same or harder than Trump's then Iran will quieten down and become defensive. If the sanctions are poor or not executed, expect on and off hostilities to continue.

Must admit that I didn't realise that such a small proportion of the Iranian population are Shia Muslims. Are you sure that is right?

[jon1959]

Must admit that I didn't realise that such a small proportion of the Iranian population are Shia Muslims. Are you sure that is right?

Looks very wrong according to this:

A 2020 survey by the World Values Survey found that 96.6% of Iranians believe in Islam. According to the CIA World Factbook, around 90–95% of Iranian Muslims associate themselves with the Shia branch of Islam, the official state religion, and about 5–10% with the Sunni and Sufi branches of Islam. According to the 2011 Iranian census, 99.98% of Iranians believe in Islam, while the rest of the population believe in other officially recognized minority religions: Christianity, Judaism and Zoroastrianism

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Iran

[jon1959]

Curveball here. I just saw an update…

“Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan receives the head of the Hamas political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, in Istanbul.”

Hard to see what that is. Either…

1. Asking for Turkish financial or military support (probably on behalf of Iran)

2. Asking Turkey to agree to cut off Middle East energy supplies to EU (Turkey won’t do that)

3. Communicate what Iran’s intentions are and seeking their views

I didn’t expect Turkey to be talking to Hamas, so this one surprises me.

Turkey have been talking to Hamas - and providing support - at least since 2006 when they were elected in Gaza.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_support_for_Hamas

[Keyser Soze]

Turkey have been talking to Hamas - and providing support - at least since 2006 when they were elected in Gaza.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_support_for_Hamas

Thanks Jon. I wasn’t watching Turkey’s activities too much 👍

[Keyser Soze]

Looks very wrong according to this:

A 2020 survey by the World Values Survey found that 96.6% of Iranians believe in Islam. According to the CIA World Factbook, around 90–95% of Iranian Muslims associate themselves with the Shia branch of Islam, the official state religion, and about 5–10% with the Sunni and Sufi branches of Islam. According to the 2011 Iranian census, 99.98% of Iranians believe in Islam, while the rest of the population believe in other officially recognized minority religions: Christianity, Judaism and Zoroastrianism

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Iran

I looked at the CIA Factbook but wondered if I could really trust it. Saw the other link I posted and wondered how there can be such a huge disparity?

[Keyser Soze]

Looks very wrong according to this:

A 2020 survey by the World Values Survey found that 96.6% of Iranians believe in Islam. According to the CIA World Factbook, around 90–95% of Iranian Muslims associate themselves with the Shia branch of Islam, the official state religion, and about 5–10% with the Sunni and Sufi branches of Islam. According to the 2011 Iranian census, 99.98% of Iranians believe in Islam, while the rest of the population believe in other officially recognized minority religions: Christianity, Judaism and Zoroastrianism

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Iran

I looked at the CIA Factbook but wondered if I could really trust it. Saw the other link I posted and wondered how there can be such a huge disparity?

My link says 20-30%. Wiki / CIA say 90% ish. A GAMAAN survey says around 50%. With an oppressive regime you can easily envision a mindset where you may openly claim to be Shia, but perhaps hold a different view due to fear.

Reality is we do not know, but there is a clear incentive and motivation for Iranian leaders, or opponents, to lie.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Iran

[truthpaste]

I looked at the CIA Factbook but wondered if I could really trust it. Saw the other link I posted and wondered how there can be such a huge disparity?

My link says 20-30%. Wiki / CIA say 90% ish. A GAMAAN survey says around 50%. With an oppressive regime you can easily envision a mindset where you may openly claim to be Shia, but perhaps hold a different view due to fear.

Reality is we do not know, but there is a clear incentive and motivation for Iranian leaders, or opponents, to lie.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Iran

In contrast with state propaganda that portrays Iran as a Shia nation, only 32% explicitly identified as such, while 5% said they were Sunni Muslim and 3% Sufi Muslim. Another 9% said they were atheists, along with 7% who prefer the label of spirituality. Among the other selected religions, 8% said they were Zoroastrians – which we interpret as a reflection of Persian nationalism and a desire for an alternative to Islam, rather than strict adherence to the Zoroastrian faith – while 1.5% said they were Christian.

Full article >> Iran’s secular shift: new survey reveals huge changes in religious beliefs (https://theconversation.com/irans-secular-shift-new-survey-reveals-huge-changes-in-religious-beliefs-145253)

[jon1959]

In contrast with state propaganda that portrays Iran as a Shia nation, only 32% explicitly identified as such, while 5% said they were Sunni Muslim and 3% Sufi Muslim. Another 9% said they were atheists, along with 7% who prefer the label of spirituality. Among the other selected religions, 8% said they were Zoroastrians – which we interpret as a reflection of Persian nationalism and a desire for an alternative to Islam, rather than strict adherence to the Zoroastrian faith – while 1.5% said they were Christian.

Full article >> Iran’s secular shift: new survey reveals huge changes in religious beliefs (https://theconversation.com/irans-secular-shift-new-survey-reveals-huge-changes-in-religious-beliefs-145253)

Interesting.

[truthpaste]

Some analysts say the Iranian attack was the largest combined missile and drone assault ever - bigger than anything Russia has levelled against Ukraine.

> BBC ARTICLE (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68900571)

"Both sides certainly will have learned military lessons. "The attack probably helped Iran identify the relative strengths and the weaknesses of the Israeli air defence system," said the Institute for the Study of War. Israel and the US will also have a greater understanding of Iran's tactical strategies"