The job in hand on Thursday

Playoff first legs won by 2 goals: 33
Won by the home side: 18
Won by the away side: 15

Those occasions wherer teams that lost in the first leg by 2 goals have turned things around:
Lost away: 2 (11%)
Lost at home: 3 (20%)

Maybe surprising or not, playing away in the second leg gives more chance of overhauling a 2 goal deficit than having home advantage.

Here's a list of stats that might make you feel slightly more optimistic about the job in hand. They're mathematically sound but a more than a touch flawed because of the low numbers.

Lost at home by one goal in the first leg but won the tie: 17%
Lost at home by two goals in the first leg but won the tie: 20%
Lost at home 2-0 in the first leg but won the tie: 25%
Lost at home by two goals but won away: 33%
Lost at home by two goals but didn't lose away: 60%

The three sides that turned things around away from home are Northampton (this season), Yeovil (2007) and Bradford (1996). It might be worth noting that none of those were playoffs in this division, so if we did manage a miracle on Thursday, it would be the first time in Championship history that a team winning by 2 goals away lost the tie.

When those sides managed their miraculous comebacks, they were all 1-0 up at half time. Yeovil needed extra time to dispatch Forest. Northampton almost managed a comeback in 2004, winning the second leg 3-1 at Mansfield. They eventually lost on penalties.

We're doomed!


Cue someone inserting a meme of John Laurie (private Frazer)

Odds were always against us. Fulham like playing us.

Start with Pato. Go for broke. Long balls in the box from minute one.

Get them rattled.

Saw this earlier:

Neil Harris’ managerial record against Fulham...

Won - 0
Drawn - 0
Lost - 6
Goals scored - 1
Goals conceded - 15

Eek

To have any chance we have to score before Fulham have a chance to settle into a rhythm.

We’ve won 4 games away by 2 goals or more all season but 2 of them have been with no fans in the ground

Quote:

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Originally Posted by StraightOuttaCanton

We’ve won 4 games away by 2 goals or more all season but 2 of them have been with no fans in the ground

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50%/50%, then, as there are no fans on Thursday

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

Playoff first legs won by 2 goals: 33
Won by the home side: 18
Won by the away side: 15

Those occasions wherer teams that lost in the first leg by 2 goals have turned things around:
Lost away: 2 (11%)
Lost at home: 3 (20%)

Maybe surprising or not, playing away in the second leg gives more chance of overhauling a 2 goal deficit than having home advantage.

Here's a list of stats that might make you feel slightly more optimistic about the job in hand. They're mathematically sound but a more than a touch flawed because of the low numbers.

Lost at home by one goal in the first leg but won the tie: 17%
Lost at home by two goals in the first leg but won the tie: 20%
Lost at home 2-0 in the first leg but won the tie: 25%
Lost at home by two goals but won away: 33%
Lost at home by two goals but didn't lose away: 60%

The three sides that turned things around away from home are Northampton (this season), Yeovil (2007) and Bradford (1996). It might be worth noting that none of those were playoffs in this division, so if we did manage a miracle on Thursday, it would be the first time in Championship history that a team winning by 2 goals away lost the tie.

When those sides managed their miraculous comebacks, they were all 1-0 up at half time. Yeovil needed extra time to dispatch Forest. Northampton almost managed a comeback in 2004, winning the second leg 3-1 at Mansfield. They eventually lost on penalties.

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Ta, Eric. Much appreciated.

Whatever the statistics say the question we need to ask is do we have a manager who can pick a team to win the game by 3 goals at Fulham? Sadly on Monday we had a manager who, through picking Pack, prevented us counter attacking quickly; our second most likely way of scoring next to set pieces.

Our best football has been when Bacuna and/or Vaulks and Ralls have played in the middle. On Monday:
- Bacuna played at rb
- Vaulks was on the bench and
- Ralls was trying to do Pack's running and then played the last 20 minutes in the Tomlin role.
All 3 for various reasons weren't selected to play their normal game. Our setup played into Fulham's strengths. That is basic football nous.

Now it might happen at Fulham, and I for one want it to (I was there for our 5-1 win by Scoular's team), but Harris has to give up playing safety-first draughts and start playing chess.

StT.
<><

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BLUETIT

50%/50%, then, as there are no fans on Thursday

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When was that announced?