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Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
Looking at the FIFA rankings prior to the tournament, these were the FIFA rankings of all sides in Euro 2020, where the rankings given are for UEFA countries only.
1 Belgium
2 France
3 England
4 Portugal
5 Spain
6 Italy
7 Denmark
8 Germany
9 Switzerland
10 Croatia
11 Netherlands
12 Wales
13 Sweden
14 Poland
15 Austria
16 Ukraine
18 Turkey
19 Slovakia
20 Hungary
21 Russia
22 Czech Republic
25 Scotland
30 Finland
32 North Macedonia
It's perhaps not too much of a surprise that 21 of the top 24 European countries made the championship. Serbia (17th), Norway and Romania (23rd and 24th) missed out.
You'd expect most of the top 16 UEFA countries to make the last 16 and this is what has very nearly happened. The only top 16 country to miss out was Poland, with only the Czech Republic making the last 16 as a country outside the top 16 (though they're heading in that direction).
2nd place in our group was a decent achievement given that we were ranked 3rd in the group from our FIFA rankings. Turkey were also the highest non top 16 UEFA side in the rankings. However, 12th in the rankings and 12 top 2 sides from 6 groups suggest second wasn't beyond us. Had we finished 3rd, it would have been the joint 2nd best 3rd place finish, so in terms of rankings, we achieved roughly what we might have expected due to the rankings.
One way of looking at how tough each group was would be to consider the average UEFA ranking of the 4 countries in each. This is how they compare:
F - 8.5
A - 11.25
E - 12.75
B - 14.75
D - 15
C - 18.5
To finish 2nd in the second toughest group (according to the rankings) is a greater achievement.
In the last 16, the higher ranked side has won 3 of the 4 games so far. The only exception is the Kingdom of the Netherlands, who are ranked 11th in UEFA. Defeat to Denmark was not a surprise based on the rankings. England vs Germany is the only last 16 tie left to feature two top 8 sides, while Sweden vs Ukraine is the only one left not to feature any top 8 sides.
In other words, reaching the last 16 should have been the minimum requirement - anything more would have been a bonus. We managed that.
Of course this doesn't take into account relative sizes of countries, where we've massively over achieved in recent years. I think our achievement is to have been one of the better footballing countries in Europe for a few years now and hopefully the future continues to be bright for a few more years yet.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
https://www.eloratings.net/
I find the elo ratings a bit better than the FIFA rankings - although there isn't a huge amount of difference at the moment
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
Yes. We’re that high in the rankings because we’re greater than the sum of our parts.
When you got someone who can’t get in Luton’s squad, not looking out of place on the international stage it really shows you that we could be doing hell of a lot worse.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
Rjk
https://www.eloratings.net/
I find the elo ratings a bit better than the FIFA rankings - although there isn't a huge amount of difference at the moment
All rankings have a flaw to them somewhere along the line.
While not football, one such example is Jonny Clayton in darts. Premier League champion, Masters champion, probably 2nd best player in the world this year. Not in the top 16 as the two tournament wins were non-ranking!
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
In another thread I said the individual result that should be focused on is the Switzerland one because of the FIFA rankings and because they're such an experienced and decent tournament side - their record is now qualifying for 8 of past 9 tournaments and getting to knock-out stages in 5 of those - so can see where you're coming from.
On paper somewhat expecting to qualifying as at least one of the third best sides does show how well we've done over last 10 years or so.
However, I've also previously highlighted the issues which I feel sets our tournament apart from most (CEO stepping down, manager stepping away 3 months before tournament starts, filling an empty seat in backroom staff with someone not in work since 2019, amount of travel to what felt like a series of away grounds) which you've not mentioned. I don't think we could have expected qualification despite positive FIFA rankings, getting to the knock-outs was important to keep the momentum going and finishing second in the group was a fine achievement. I wish we hadn't let our frustrations show as much in last game but this side, again, has been through a lot so I expect them to learn from it but I'll forgive and forget it quickly.
Regarding next steps, I think this tweet says it all:
Quote:
Consolidating future qualifications, transitioning to next generation of players, maintaining the allure of playing for Wales over other potential nations AND, crucially, getting the women’s team to a major tournament all make up a massive task. But doable!
https://twitter.com/tomandersonbks/s...37324194533379
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
Why don’t you put population figures against each country and see where we should “rank” in those terms?
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
I think to find ourselves in these rankings are great.
Scotland and Ireland haven’t been as far as us and they have a larger pool of players to choose from.
We’ve done well and moved on from the Alun Evans days!
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
Yes of course it bloody is. Turkey looked strong heading into the tournament, the Swiss as pointed out are tournament regulars and Italy are Italy. Getting third would have been an achievement, but 2nd place was well beyond what I expected.
We have to remember outside of Bale and Ramsey our squad just isnt very good. Having a Luton backup starting for us whilst teams like Switzerland have an Arsenal and Atalanta player starting in midfield just highlights how far we are away from a lot of sides irrespective of what the rankings say.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
This seems a chicken and egg situation.
You can point out that we're doing just about what we should according to the rankings - well, let's step back and appreciate how well we are doing in the rankings. We are not historically a top ranked European team. We don't even have a professional league at home.
The rankings reflect consistently good results over a period of time, and there we are sitting in the middle. We're above teams who have a strong tournament record in recent years (Turkey, Sweden, Czechs).
Yes, it's an achievement, all of it.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
WJ99mobile
Yes. We’re that high in the rankings because we’re greater than the sum of our parts.
When you got someone who can’t get in Luton’s squad, not looking out of place on the international stage it really shows you that we could be doing hell of a lot worse.
Not looking out place? He was horribly exposed during this tournament for me.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
Toadstool
Why don’t you put population figures against each country and see where we should “rank” in those terms?
I get that population plays a massive part but Belgium are ranked number one with only 11 million population.
Maybe we need to focus on other things like better infrastructure and better coaching, instead of just using "little old Wales" as an excuse.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
You look at the rankings for the world and to get to the last 16 in a European championship would be about par on paper.
It's never as easy as that and never will be for us.
I wasn't surprised we got through the group, I was 50/50 pre tournament.
I wouldn't say getting through the group is an achievement but more the overall and continued progress of Welsh international football where I'm no longer surprised by our successes and was actually more surprised and disappointed by the 4 nil capitulation.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
UNDERHILL1927
I get that population plays a massive part but Belgium are ranked number one with only 11 million population.
Maybe we need to focus on other things like better infrastructure and better coaching, instead of just using "little old Wales" as an excuse.
I want to know what Croatia do with only 4 million. I guess if there is a focus on a particular sport then anything is possible.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
On that basis we reached where should have, last 16.
We don’t have a proper League for players to achieve International selection and that is a major hurdle, we are therefore restricted to a small number to choose from via the English pyramid system, ergo we really are punching above our weight.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
Trigger
I want to know what Croatia do with only 4 million. I guess if there is a focus on a particular sport then anything is possible.
Yeah good point, we're battling with rugby all the way which doesn't help when it comes to budgets etc.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
UNDERHILL1927
I get that population plays a massive part but Belgium are ranked number one with only 11 million population.
Maybe we need to focus on other things like better infrastructure and better coaching, instead of just using "little old Wales" as an excuse.
Yes but you have to take into account that Belgium is very flat so they have more room for football pitches for people to practice on. :getscoat:
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
xsnaggle
Yes but you have to take into account that Belgium is very flat so they have more room for football pitches for people to practice on. :getscoat:
Mountain football World Cup winners 2045.....WALES!
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
xsnaggle
Yes but you have to take into account that Belgium is very flat so they have more room for football pitches for people to practice on. :getscoat:
Belgium must be the best national team in world football that uses English as their language of communication in training and on the pitch.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
Trigger
You look at the rankings for the world and to get to the last 16 in a European championship would be about par on paper.
It's never as easy as that and never will be for us.
I wasn't surprised we got through the group, I was 50/50 pre tournament.
I wouldn't say getting through the group is an achievement but more the overall and continued progress of Welsh international football where I'm no longer surprised by our successes and was actually more surprised and disappointed by the 4 nil capitulation.
^^^this
the result I can live with, the manner in which we played was appalling.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
Cleve van Leef
On that basis we reached where should have, last 16.
We don’t have a proper League for players to achieve International selection and that is a major hurdle, we are therefore restricted to a small number to choose from via the English pyramid system, ergo we really are punching above our weight.
We've been punching above our weight for years. 10 years ago we were ranked 114th. The Faeroes pipped us into Pot 4. We were 3 points above North Korea and 5 behind the Central African Republic. We were on the same rankins page as Thailand, Barbados and Malaysia. Kuwait were 13 places above us.
10 years on, one semi-final and one second round. People knocking our achievements have conveniently forgotten where we have come from. In 10 years time, we are more likely to be ranked closer to 100 than the top 10 because the FAW have a habit of botching progress. Enjoy it while it lasts is all I will say.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
Allez Allez Allez
We've been punching above our weight for years. 10 years ago we were ranked 114th. The Faeroes pipped us into Pot 4. We were 3 points above North Korea and 5 behind the Central African Republic. We were on the same rankins page as Thailand, Barbados and Malaysia. Kuwait were 13 places above us.
10 years on, one semi-final and one second round. People knocking our achievements have conveniently forgotten where we have come from. In 10 years time, we are more likely to be ranked closer to 100 than the top 10 because the FAW have a habit of botching progress. Enjoy it while it lasts is all I will say.
I don't see anyone knocking our achievements and I think everyone is enjoying our current successes.
I tend to look at the here and now, hence the post. I think it is an achievement being the 12th best country in UEFA as things stand.
I struggle with the idea that, because we've not made major tournaments or been utterly shite, that it has a bearing on how things are currently, other than making us a bit more grounded in terms of expectation levels. This Euro campaign has been par for the course in terms of how we are ranked. I don't buy into any argument that we are punching above our weight, or how being behind Kuwait in the rankings over a decade ago means we shouldn't qualify for tournaments or better. We are where we are at this moment and we are there on merit, we're not just punching above our weight. I used to get fed up of hearing City fans after successive top half finishes in the Championship, an FA cup final and two failed playoff campaigns saying we were still punching above our weight because we had spent some time in the bottom two divisions.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
I don't see anyone knocking our achievements and I think everyone is enjoying our current successes.
I tend to look at the here and now, hence the post. I think it is an achievement being the 12th best country in UEFA as things stand.
I struggle with the idea that, because we've not made major tournaments or been utterly shite, that it has a bearing on how things are currently, other than making us a bit more grounded in terms of expectation levels. This Euro campaign has been par for the course in terms of how we are ranked. I don't buy into any argument that we are punching above our weight, or how being behind Kuwait in the rankings over a decade ago means we shouldn't qualify for tournaments or better. We are where we are at this moment and we are there on merit, we're not just punching above our weight. I used to get fed up of hearing City fans after successive top half finishes in the Championship, an FA cup final and two failed playoff campaigns saying we were still punching above our weight because we had spent some time in the bottom two divisions.
Of course we are punching above our weight. It would be ludicrous to suggest otherwise. We have the population of Birmingham.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
Dave Blue
Of course we are punching above our weight. It would be ludicrous to suggest otherwise. We have the population of Birmingham.
And if you include West Brom, the same number of league clubs, albeit they have one in the Prem and two alongside us and Swansea.
