What do we need for promotion?
If we can average 2 points a game between now and the end of the season we'll have 91 points. In 2018, we've more than achieved that, gaining 20 points from 9 games. If we kept up that ratio, we'd have 93 points.
In 2018, Villa have managed 2 points more than us, but if both us and Villa keep up our 2018 form we'd finish 2nd. For Villa to pip us they'd most likely need to win 2 more games than us. 7 wins for us means they'd need 9 from 12. Possible, but tough.
This year Fulham have been the best Championship side. 13 games unbeaten in the league, only dropping 6 points. If both us and Fulham keep up our 2018 form we'd still finish 2nd. For Fulham to pip us they'd most likely need to win 3 more games than us, given that we have a game in hand. 7 wins for us mean they need 9 from 11. That's beyond what they've achieved in their previous 11 games.
Going back to averaging 2 points a game, if we can manage it, Villa need to average 2.33 points a game and Fulham 2.73 points a game. From the position of both Villa and Fulham, only Sunderland in 2004/5 managed that sort of points ratio to go from playoff position to automatic promotion over the last 20 years, so such a run of form would be highly unusual, whereas getting 2 points a game has occurred far more often.
When you stretch out the run of form that it becomes more implausible - this potentially will cause problems for both Villa and Fulham. Should we get to 91 points, Fulham will have needed to get 53 points from their last 20 games; Villa will have needed 44. Sunderland managed 45 points over that same 20 game period, Reading managed a similar total when they won over 100 points. That's the sort of perspective that needs consideration - for Villa to reach 92 points it would take one of the very best last 20 game run-ins there's ever been from a promoted side, in particular from a side not in the top 2. For Fulham to manage it would be unheard of. That's not to suggest it can't happen, but the likelihood is very, very remote, to the point that if one of them managed it, you take your hat off and bow down to a brilliant run of form.
7 wins with a few draws will give us 2 points a game average between now and the end of the season. That will 99% certain mean automatic promotion. 6 wins leaves Villa with a lot of work to do and Fulham still requiring a miracle. 5 wins means we're catchable - any less and we wouldn't have deserved promotion.
Re: What do we need for promotion?
Re: What do we need for promotion?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
sneggyblubird
Just more of the same.
Pretty much. A point at Villa would be good, too.
Re: What do we need for promotion?
If we dont go up auto,forget it .We wont win the play offs
Re: What do we need for promotion?
Looking at our fixtures we should target to win at least 6
Birmingham (home) W
Barnsley (home) W
Burton (home) W
Hull (away) W
Forest (home) W
Reading (home) W
The other games were I think we can pick up the odd point or a win or 2
Wolves (home) D
Brentford (away) D
Villa (away) L
Sheff Utd (away) L
Norwich (away) D
Derby (away) D
Re: What do we need for promotion?
We need to win all our home games pick up a win away and 2 draws will do it
Re: What do we need for promotion?
More points than the team who finish 3rd.
Re: What do we need for promotion?
Birmingham (home) W
Barnsley (home) W
Burton (home) W
Hull (away) W
Forest (home) W
Reading (home) W
Wolves (home) W
Brentford (away) D
Villa (away) L
Sheff Utd (away) D
Norwich (away) D
Derby (away) D
Re: What do we need for promotion?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mike downtownabbey
If we dont go up auto,forget it .We wont win the play offs
We could if we avoid Fulham
Re: What do we need for promotion?
I think Fulham will catch Wolves but they wont catch us.
Re: What do we need for promotion?
Our current injury list to subside, key players to remain fit between now and the end of the season will be the biggest factor in determining our fate this season without doubt.
Re: What do we need for promotion?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
emjayblue
Our current injury list to subside, key players to remain fit between now and the end of the season will be the biggest factor in determining our fate this season without doubt.
Players holding their nerve will also be a key one
Re: What do we need for promotion?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jamieccfc
Looking at our fixtures we should target to win at least 6
Birmingham (home) W
Barnsley (home) W
Burton (home) W
Hull (away) W
Forest (home) W
Reading (home) W
The other games were I think we can pick up the odd point or a win or 2
Wolves (home) D
Brentford (away) D
Villa (away) L
Sheff Utd (away) L
Norwich (away) D
Derby (away) D
You think we will win 10 games in a row?
Are you pissed?
Re: What do we need for promotion?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Mambo
Who do we have that is out injured at the moment :-
Danny Ward, Jamie Ward,Pelts, Morrison (was doubtful but I guess is ok) , anybody else ?
Ralls for some time if you believe the rumours - time for Gunnar to get fit and someone like Bryson to step up to the plate if they are true.
Re: What do we need for promotion?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Mambo
Who do we have that is out injured at the moment :-
Danny Ward, Jamie Ward,Pelts, Morrison (was doubtful but I guess is ok) , anybody else ?
Mozza likely to be another few weeks, and you have forgot Jazz, Traore, Gunners and most importantly Ralls. As I say better luck with injuries would make all the difference,
Re: What do we need for promotion?
NML to be like a new player last 6 weeks of the season.
Pilks to come on as a super sub every game.
Ken to be like he was end of last season.
Re: What do we need for promotion?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dembethewarrior
You think we will win 10 games in a row?
Are you pissed?
The fixtures are not in that order you numpty:biggrin:
Re: What do we need for promotion?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jamieccfc
The fixtures are not in that order you numpty:biggrin:
Seems I'm still pissed
Re: What do we need for promotion?
Re: What do we need for promotion?
Doing a professional job in this weeks two home games will help. We have a great chance for six points. Do that and I think we will be in a stronger position this time next week with less games left to play.
Re: What do we need for promotion?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dave1927
I think Fulham will catch Wolves but they wont catch us.
Beautiful, just beautiful!!!! :hehe::hehe::hehe:
Re: What do we need for promotion?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Mambo
Who do we have that is out injured at the moment :-
Danny Ward, Jamie Ward,Pelts, Morrison (was doubtful but I guess is ok) , anybody else ?
Ralls? Peltier,(I think)
