Mixed messages on and off the field, but Cardiff City keep on winning!

http://mauveandyellowarmy.net/

I am in full agreement regarding Damour Paul. Almost a liability at times. Our passing is not great as you say, but the amount of Damour's over hit and under hit passes is concerning. When Bryson was replaced by him, Birmingham seemed to step up a gear, passing and running through midfield at will; their lack of ideas and confidence in final third enabled us to hang on; thank god!
We had a chance to sort out our goal difference yesterday by going at them in 2nd half, but again we chose to sit back. Hope we do not rue that come the end of April.
I usually come away with a real positive vibe after a win, no matter how we get it. But I came away yesterday with a cob on. We need a different approach to the next two games. Fingers x Ralls, Gunners and Bryson are back very soon. Hopefully at least one of them for the Brentford game.
Spedger

The success we've had this season is down to how NW has us playing. Changes have been forced upon us.

Our teams strength is defence and team spirit. If we can continue with NML Hoillett and Zahore playing well, we can beat anyone , as proved .
Its now a case of hoping we can keep going. 6 points from the next three is a must.

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

http://mauveandyellowarmy.net/

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Interesting read.

I would expect the figure actually used by th FL for FFP purposes will be very different for the headline me one as they will have to make a fair few adjustments to it in line with how they calculate the loss.

Good read Paul but I do think with Morrison back and the international break coming up we can hopefully get the walking wounded back up to speed and what will be will be but honestly with Warnock in charge this is probably the first time I'm confident about city ever

Just watched the Hoilett penalty incident on IFollow. It didn't look such an obvious penalty on there, but that's not to say it wasn't one - still feel the ref got it wrong.

From my position in the Grandstand it looked as if he'd had his heel clipped pushing his rear foot into his front foot. I haven't seen any replays of the incident so would be interested to see if that tallied with what you saw

The underlying Xg from our last 2 games do show that we haven't been our usual selves.
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All season long we've been absolutely killing it on this measure, us and Wolves have been way ahead of everyone else, and arguably we've been even better than them, other than the Preston 3-0 I can't think of other occasions we've been so behind on Xg, our other losses have been even or us comfortably ahead.
So even though we won both of these games, I think it is perfectly legitimate to be cautiously concerned about having to face better sides in the coming weeks.

In both games we appear to not create much from half time and the opposition starts creating much more. I don't doubt that the injuries and fatigue are having an effect, so hopefully we can improve (performance wise, not result wise) when we strt getting players back.

Over the season as a whole we've created on average an xG of 1.7ish per match, which is second only to Brentford, and allowed an xG against of 0.9ish which is second lowest to Wolves.

Over the last 2 we've averaged 1.3 xG in attack and 2.2 xG conceded. Yeah you can win the occasional game like that, but over a longer period the results tend to eventually follow (unless you're Reading from last season)

Thanks TOBW great read , seeing Morrison on the pitch along with Pelts and the awsome Patterson is great news

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Originally Posted by Rjk

The underlying Xg from our last 2 games do show that we haven't been our usual selves.
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All season long we've been absolutely killing it on this measure, us and Wolves have been way ahead of everyone else, and arguably we've been even better than them, other than the Preston 3-0 I can't think of other occasions we've been so behind on Xg, our other losses have been even or us comfortably ahead.
So even though we won both of these games, I think it is perfectly legitimate to be cautiously concerned about having to face better sides in the coming weeks.

In both games we appear to not create much from half time and the opposition starts creating much more. I don't doubt that the injuries and fatigue are having an effect, so hopefully we can improve (performance wise, not result wise) when we strt getting players back.

Over the season as a whole we've created on average an xG of 1.7ish per match, which is second only to Brentford, and allowed an xG against of 0.9ish which is second lowest to Wolves.

Over the last 2 we've averaged 1.3 xG in attack and 2.2 xG conceded. Yeah you can win the occasional game like that, but over a longer period the results tend to eventually follow (unless you're Reading from last season)

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Surely the drop off in both games have been down to a key midfielder getting injured - a position where our 2 first choice are already unavailable.

Not having our best centre half available and injury problems with one of our 2 main strikers won't help either.

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Originally Posted by Rjk

The underlying Xg from our last 2 games do show that we haven't been our usual selves.
Attachment 2213Attachment 2214

All season long we've been absolutely killing it on this measure, us and Wolves have been way ahead of everyone else, and arguably we've been even better than them, other than the Preston 3-0 I can't think of other occasions we've been so behind on Xg, our other losses have been even or us comfortably ahead.
So even though we won both of these games, I think it is perfectly legitimate to be cautiously concerned about having to face better sides in the coming weeks.

In both games we appear to not create much from half time and the opposition starts creating much more. I don't doubt that the injuries and fatigue are having an effect, so hopefully we can improve (performance wise, not result wise) when we strt getting players back.

Over the season as a whole we've created on average an xG of 1.7ish per match, which is second only to Brentford, and allowed an xG against of 0.9ish which is second lowest to Wolves.

Over the last 2 we've averaged 1.3 xG in attack and 2.2 xG conceded. Yeah you can win the occasional game like that, but over a longer period the results tend to eventually follow (unless you're Reading from last season)

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I'd like to thank you from my own perspective for posting that because it puts some flesh on the bone regarding what was a gut instinct for me concerning our past two matches. I mention in my piece about how people had a go at me for expressing a "negative" view after the Birmingham game, but I'd say this, to a degree anyway, vindicates me.

Yes, I know its stats and people distrust them, but your mention of Reading reminded me of an article I read somewhere months ago where the writer expressed bewilderment as to how Reading were able to have the season they did when their Xg figures flew in the face of what has proved to be a very accurate method of reading how a side fares throughout a season.

Lawnmower could well be right about Ralls' absence being the reason behind our dip in those figures, but all I know is that, while it will not make for great entertainment, I reckon we've got a great chance of automatic promotion if we can perform as we did against Middlesbrough and Bristol City over the next ten matches, whereas I fear for our chances regarding the top two, and in the Play Offs, if the form shown in our last two games continues.

According to some on here, expressing such views will damage our prospects for the rest of the season - how? Why? This is just a messageboard where City fans are allowed to express their opinions and that's all I'm doing.

If you look at the responses to my Birmingham piece in the Feedback section of the blog, you will see the view expressed that, although results went our way last week in that the the leaders continue to come back to us and the number of games the other two sides involved have left to overhaul us has declined, the writer states;-

"In fact I feel our chances of automatic promotion are if anything very slightly diminished by the top four teams’ results yesterday"

I know exactly what he means and concur with his conclusion that automatic promotion is less likely for us now than it was, but would disagree with him slightly because the main reason for my being more doubtful is the nature of our last two performances rather than what Fulham and Villa did on Saturday - we really need one or both of Ralls and Gunnarsson available as soon as possible.

Bob...i disagree with the opinion that Damour is tired. He hasn't had a lot of game time this seadon.

This is not a retrospective viewpoint as many banged on about it in January, but why we didn't bring in another midfielder in January was beyond me.

We were always one injury away from scraping the barrel and now we are where we are. To be fair, Warnock is still getting results despite this but it could have been a lot more comfortable if we didn't splash our budget on Madine.

The team spirit Warnock has nurtured has achieved incredible things this season but I always get the feeling we're gonna fall short.

Like others have commented, we are desperate for the return of Ralls or Gunnarsson as surely our patched up squad can't keep this unbelievable run going.

Looking at those xG graphs proves one thing - that in both games we were clearly on top in both first halves and only started struggling when the game appeared out of sight. My feeling in both was that we became complacent and our game dropped off alarmingly.

There appears to be some fear that our performances might be on the wane, yet had we been 0-0 at half time in either game, I don't believe for one second that we would have seen the drop in performance we did.

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

Looking at those xG graphs proves one thing - that in both games we were clearly on top in both first halves and only started struggling when the game appeared out of sight. My feeling in both was that we became complacent and our game dropped off alarmingly.

There appears to be some fear that our performances might be on the wane, yet had we been 0-0 at half time in either game, I don't believe for one second that we would have seen the drop in performance we did.

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I agree with that. There is also a bit of case that we are conserving energy once "the game is won" cos of our crazy schedule

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Originally Posted by kendoddsdadsdogsdead

Bob...i disagree with the opinion that Damour is tired. He hasn't had a lot of game time this seadon.

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My main point was more to do with a collective tiredness, rather than an individual one, but, having read what I said again, it doesn't read like that and I end up talking about Damour in particular. You make a fair point, but I would argue that he's not used to forty six game league seasons and all of the travelling that goes with that, while, although there's a danger of strereotyping with this sort of thing, I would have thought that the training in this country, especially under this manager, is likely to be more intensive and physically demanding than he may be used to.

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

My main point was more to do with a collective tiredness, rather than an individual one, but, having read what I said again, it doesn't read like that and I end up talking about Damour in particular. You make a fair point, but I would argue that he's not used to forty six game league seasons and all of the travelling that goes with that, while, although there's a danger of strereotyping with this sort of thing, I would have thought that the training in this country, especially under this manager, is likely to be more intensive and physically demanding than he may be used to.

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That is definitely an issue with us but you could probably argue that we wouldn't be in the position we are now if we didn't come out of the blocks like we did at the beginning of the season when we built momentum by looking so much fitter than everyone else.

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Originally Posted by thehumblegringo

I agree with that. There is also a bit of case that we are conserving energy once "the game is won" cos of our crazy schedule

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It seems like a role reversal from earlier in the season, when we started games poorly but grew into them.

I've considered this conserving energy idea as well. We're down to bare bones in terms of personnel. Warnock will know more about the fitness and energy levels within the squad more than we do and I think we are under instruction to have a breather if the game appears won beyond any doubts. It's a dangerous strategy, of course. It's difficult to raise your performance levels at the click of a finger if something goes wrong.

We've got 2 more games before the international break and I wouldn't mind betting that Warnock is just trying to get us through to that with as many points as we can muster. If we can be as far ahead in the promotion race as we are now by next weekend, it'll have been a job well done. Villa and Fulham will be the sides needing to give absolutely everything to try and claw back the deficit and they could run out of steam, providing we keep a game ahead of them. It happened to Spurs when they were trying to challenge Leicester for the title. It's far harder chasing than it is staying ahead of the pack.

There's one certainty - we won't play as we have in the second halves against Barnsley and Birmingham against Villa, Wolves and Sheffield United.

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Originally Posted by thehumblegringo

That is definitely an issue with us but you could probably argue that we wouldn't be in the position we are now if we didn't come out of the blocks like we did at the beginning of the season when we built momentum by looking so much fitter than everyone else.

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I agree - to be honest, I've been expecting to see signs of tiredness (if there are such signs being shown now) earlier than this.

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Originally Posted by Penarth Blues

From my position in the Grandstand it looked as if he'd had his heel clipped pushing his rear foot into his front foot. I haven't seen any replays of the incident so would be interested to see if that tallied with what you saw

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When I looked yesterday, they didn't have the normal extended highlights package and so I had look at the video for the whole of the second half, so the coverage isn't as extensive as you usually get, but I'd say your description ties up with what I saw.

I'm still completely at a loss how I feel this season will end. If we didn't have Warnock here I'd be convinced that we were going to fall apart at the final hurdle.

These next 2 games are huge. If we can manage to maintain the gap that we have on both Fulham and Villa then I'm confident we can see this season out. They're both massive games, I'm a bit nervous about tomorrow's game already, which suggests a pretty big one!

Aside from Ralls; I think we should be at a full complement by the time we play Burton. Morrison having gametime on Saturday was excellent news; there was concern that he could be out for a fair bit longer.

We definitely ran out of steam at the end of last season. Ok we had nothing to play for, but after an excellent start when NW took over we ended up taking something like 16 points from the last 15 games.
It could be us settling into a mid table position, it it could have been the style of play and training taking its toll on the players.

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Originally Posted by ccfcwelshlad

I'm still completely at a loss how I feel this season will end. If we didn't have Warnock here I'd be convinced that we were going to fall apart at the final hurdle.

These next 2 games are huge. If we can manage to maintain the gap that we have on both Fulham and Villa then I'm confident we can see this season out. They're both massive games, I'm a bit nervous about tomorrow's game already, which suggests a pretty big one!

Aside from Ralls; I think we should be at a full complement by the time we play Burton. Morrison having gametime on Saturday was excellent news; there was concern that he could be out for a fair bit longer.

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Do you not expect Joe to be back following the international break mate?

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Originally Posted by emjayblue

Do you not expect Joe to be back following the international break mate?

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This? I was hoping Joe would be back after break?

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Originally Posted by ninianclark

Excuse my ignorance but what is the term 'xG' ?

Also I hadnt notice about Demour's passing , I sit lower down to pitch level so I dont see the game from a high position, which obviously gives you a different view of the game

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He's still alive, you know.