Brexit blamed as UK misses out on global trade rebound

https://www.ft.com/content/021c629d-...0-ab5f0eb65a35

I am shocked 🙄

I'm shocked you pay the subscription @ £35 per month :biggrin:

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Originally Posted by Wales-Bales

I'm shocked you pay the subscription @ £35 per month :biggrin:

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Oh, think it let me go on first time without a subscription.

I'm still waiting for empty shelves , financial crash , business leaving on mass , huge unemployment, collapse of health service, shortage of prescription drugs , no longer a big hitter on the world stage .

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Originally Posted by life on mars

I'm still waiting for empty shelves , financial crash , business leaving on mass , huge unemployment, collapse of health service, shortage of prescription drugs , no longer a big hitter on the world stage .

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You won't be waiting long, don't worry

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Originally Posted by Dorcus

You won't be waiting long, don't worry

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I disagree. It's like that old tale of how best to boil a frog. Chuck it in boiling water and it leaps out. Put it in cold water and slowly raise the temperature and the frog doesn't realise it's boiled until it's too late. Brexit will be a slow drip of wealth, trade and power and most won't notice until it's gone!

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Originally Posted by cyril evans awaydays

I disagree. It's like that old tale of how best to boil a frog. Chuck it in boiling water and it leaps out. Put it in cold water and slowly raise the temperature and the frog doesn't realise it's boiled until it's too late. Brexit will be a slow drip of wealth, trade and power and most won't notice until it's gone!

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Possibly so, it will be a long uncomfortable death I think

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Originally Posted by cyril evans awaydays

I disagree. It's like that old tale of how best to boil a frog. Chuck it in boiling water and it leaps out. Put it in cold water and slowly raise the temperature and the frog doesn't realise it's boiled until it's too late. Brexit will be a slow drip of wealth, trade and power and most won't notice until it's gone!

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its a good point in time you should though be able to measure prices , unemployment , wages, inflation, GDP with other like minded European countries , we do need to draw a breath before making a final judgment I guess ???

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Originally Posted by cyril evans awaydays

I disagree. It's like that old tale of how best to boil a frog. Chuck it in boiling water and it leaps out. Put it in cold water and slowly raise the temperature and the frog doesn't realise it's boiled until it's too late. Brexit will be a slow drip of wealth, trade and power and most won't notice until it's gone!

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Quite a statement to make based on one graph over one time frame that doesn't break other countries performances down and taken in the immediate aftermath of new trading rules in the middle of a global pandemic..

You may be right of course, though I suspect you won't be.

It would be interesting to drill into the stats more though - Doucus, as you posted the story I guess you have an FT subscription to read the article? Could you copy and paste it?

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Originally Posted by JamesWales

Quite a statement to make based on one graph over one time frame that doesn't break other countries performances down and taken in the immediate aftermath of new trading rules in the middle of a global pandemic..

You may be right of course, though I suspect you won't be.

It would be interesting to drill into the stats more though - Doucus, as you posted the story I guess you have an FT subscription to read the article? Could you copy and paste it?

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What graph?

I think this from the Institute of Export and International Trade covers the salient points, directly quoting from the government established Office of Budgetary Responsibility.

https://www.export.org.uk/news/60008...nd-exports.htm

the OBR forecasts that UK international trade will continue to be 15% less than if the country had remained within the EU.

None of the free trade agreements signed so far or regulatory changes will have "material impact” on this forecast, the OBR’s report said.


The UK has “missed out on much of the recovery in global trade” following the pandemic due to Brexit, the OBR argues.

Exports collapsed in many countries at the start of the pandemic but recovery in UK trade has been slow relative to advanced economies. Total advanced economy goods exports already exceed pre-pandemic levels by 3% - "suggesting that Brexit may have been a factor," according to the OBR.

This fall in trade intensity could lower productivity by 4% over a 15-year period, the OBR believes.

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Originally Posted by cyril evans awaydays

What graph?

I think this from the Institute of Export and International Trade covers the salient points, directly quoting from the government established Office of Budgetary Responsibility.

https://www.export.org.uk/news/60008...nd-exports.htm

the OBR forecasts that UK international trade will continue to be 15% less than if the country had remained within the EU.

None of the free trade agreements signed so far or regulatory changes will have "material impact” on this forecast, the OBR’s report said.


The UK has “missed out on much of the recovery in global trade” following the pandemic due to Brexit, the OBR argues.

Exports collapsed in many countries at the start of the pandemic but recovery in UK trade has been slow relative to advanced economies. Total advanced economy goods exports already exceed pre-pandemic levels by 3% - "suggesting that Brexit may have been a factor," according to the OBR.

This fall in trade intensity could lower productivity by 4% over a 15-year period, the OBR believes.

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Sorry, when I clicked on the FT the other day it at least showed a graph with that story..now it shows nothing but the heading.

Yes, in the current climate global trade is down and we are likely exporting (and importing) less. My point is not to make any dramatic long term assumptions based on one data set for one time period in the midst of a global pandemic. I suspect that the frog and the pot of water will generally continue much as they have. Would be interested to see this data for all countries, I wonder whether the restrictions on sea-borne trade impacting certain larger countries more?

Brexit was never going to produce a better trade environment between the UK and EU. What it can do is create better global trade opportunities, but clearly covid ruins the chance to view that. I wonder if we are sourcing more domestically as a result too?

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Originally Posted by JamesWales

Quite a statement to make based on one graph over one time frame that doesn't break other countries performances down and taken in the immediate aftermath of new trading rules in the middle of a global pandemic..

You may be right of course, though I suspect you won't be.

It would be interesting to drill into the stats more though - Doucus, as you posted the story I guess you have an FT subscription to read the article? Could you copy and paste it?

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FT Subscribers on CCMB surely not .

Brexit was not about Trade its voters wanted to make their own rules have independence from Europe s decision making and policy

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Originally Posted by life on mars

FT Subscribers on CCMB surely not .

Brexit was not about Trade its voters wanted to make their own rules have independence from Europe s decision making and policy

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It was about immigration pure and simple to a minority of Leave voters - in my view, that minority was big enough to cover the difference between the two sides.

Its interesting to note the predicted huge100k job loss and relocations in the City of London Financial Service industry has not happened in that volume suppose it was bit like the leavers £350 billion bus banner .


https://www.theguardian.com/business...s-report-warns

So far 7.5k jobs have been tracked as relocating because of Brexit , new hires across Europe and the UK since the Referendum which is just over 5k 2,800 in Europe and 2,2kin the UK.

Not bad after that scary prediction of 100k loss as there is about 200k in London and 1.1 million financial services jobs in the UK

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

It was about immigration pure and simple to a minority of Leave voters - in my view, that minority was big enough to cover the difference between the two sides.

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Your entitled to view, but it does not sit with everyone view or democratic thoughts and decisions , i'd say the biggest factor was the word control

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Originally Posted by life on mars

Your entitled to view, but it does not sit with everyone view or democratic thoughts and decisions , i'd say the biggest factor was the word control

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That’s why I said a minority, but I happen to think it was a significant minority - immigration was the thing that got talked about an awful lot before the vote and then quietly put aside when it was won.

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

It was about immigration pure and simple to a minority of Leave voters - in my view, that minority was big enough to cover the difference between the two sides.

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I think this is fair enough and true. 'Control' of course encapsulates immigration too.

There is of course nothing wrong with wanting greater regulation over immigration either, although we all know that the reasoning behind that isn't always friendly.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/ne...s-been-317591/

Similar article to the one I tried to post.

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Originally Posted by life on mars

Your entitled to view, but it does not sit with everyone view or democratic thoughts and decisions , i'd say the biggest factor was the word control

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Word control on here would be a fine thing in some cases.....

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Originally Posted by JamesWales

I think this is fair enough and true. 'Control' of course encapsulates immigration too.

There is of course nothing wrong with wanting greater regulation over immigration either, although we all know that the reasoning behind that isn't always friendly.

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Control is a powerful word which fortunately for the architects of the Brexit project can be elusive in identification.

All trade and bilateral agreements, by their very nature, cede control.

The EU agreement allows tarrif free movement of goods as long as the UK does not weaken rules sufficiently around health, environmental standards or workers' rights. There is an arbitration process but the ECJ is still the legal body which determines whether the rules of the EU's single market have been breached.

New deals with countries such as India are likely to weaken our current immigration rules. Any ambition to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership will come with minimal adjustment to its current rules and regulations and disputes will not be settled in UK courts. We will effectively be a rule taker at the outset. Any future US deal could force the weakening of our agricultural standards and force conflict with the EU agreement.

Although analysis by the government's own advisory body shows the loss of EU membership is is insignificantly compensated by any new trade deals those who favoured Brexit have every right to champion this brave new world. Just as people who favoured Remaining in the EU are likely to be comfortable with trading sovereignty (give or take a bit of chlorinated chicken).

Just remember that everytime a deal is signed a bit of that much valued "control" disappears as a result.

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Originally Posted by cyril evans awaydays

Control is a powerful word which fortunately for the architects of the Brexit project can be elusive in identification.

All trade and bilateral agreements, by their very nature, cede control.

The EU agreement allows tarrif free movement of goods as long as the UK does not weaken rules sufficiently around health, environmental standards or workers' rights. There is an arbitration process but the ECJ is still the legal body which determines whether the rules of the EU's single market have been breached.

New deals with countries such as India are likely to weaken our current immigration rules. Any ambition to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership will come with minimal adjustment to its current rules and regulations and disputes will not be settled in UK courts. We will effectively be a rule taker at the outset. Any future US deal could force the weakening of our agricultural standards and force conflict with the EU agreement.

Although analysis by the government's own advisory body shows the loss of EU membership is is insignificantly compensated by any new trade deals those who favoured Brexit have every right to champion this brave new world. Just as people who favoured Remaining in the EU are likely to be comfortable with trading sovereignty (give or take a bit of chlorinated chicken).

Just remember that everytime a deal is signed a bit of that much valued "control" disappears as a result.

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Don't disagree with much of that. One of the major criticisms of the EU is that it morphed from being a trade body (under it's previous moniker) to something that impacted more upon society and peoples lives - much of that was probably perception as much as reality, but it clearly is a political body as much as a trading organisation and therein, I would suggest, lie many of its criticisms

UK's latest trade report is here btw:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/natio...de/january2022

What strikes me with this data is how wildly it varies, making patterns quite difficult to extract

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Originally Posted by life on mars

I'm still waiting for empty shelves , financial crash , business leaving on mass , huge unemployment, collapse of health service, shortage of prescription drugs , no longer a big hitter on the world stage .

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It's coming but it won't be from Brexit :biggrin:

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Originally Posted by JamesWales

Don't disagree with much of that. One of the major criticisms of the EU is that it morphed from being a trade body (under it's previous moniker) to something that impacted more upon society and peoples lives - much of that was probably perception as much as reality, but it clearly is a political body as much as a trading organisation and therein, I would suggest, lie many of its criticisms

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Huge beef for me is the EEC lack of fairness , it talks about workers rights but has within its make up countries struggling to jeep up with the super powers such as France and Germany? They pacify the poor by allowing free movement of Labour ?? They are all in a single currency so why not a standard welfare system and minimum wage , surely that would really help the poorest countries who see families broken up by the pure need for better benefits and better basic wages and having to leave thier country in search of better lifestyle and send money home .

Germany and France selfish motives has really been exposed in recent times especially with thier approach to the Vaccine programme and now the Ukraine , and its gas sweatheart deals with Russia , and bugger the rest ?

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Originally Posted by life on mars

Huge beef for me is the EEC lack of fairness , it talks about workers rights but has within its make up countries struggling to jeep up with the super powers such as France and Germany? They pacify the poor by allowing free movement of Labour ?? They are all in a single currency so why not a standard welfare system and minimum wage , surely that would really help the poorest countries who see families broken up by the pure need for better benefits and better basic wages and having to leave thier country in search of better lifestyle and send money home .

Germany and France selfish motives has really been exposed in recent times especially with thier approach to the Vaccine programme and now the Ukraine , and its gas sweatheart deals with Russia , and bugger the rest ?

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I presume you mean the EU not the institution that ceased in 1993 in this midnight ramble.

That all member states are in a single currency must come as a bit of a shock to the eight who aren't ranging from high welfare prosperous countries such as Sweden and Denmark and poorer ones such as Romania and Bulgaria.

The EU has always used its pooled budgets to redistribute funding to poorer regions based on objective criteria, that's why the South Wales valleys received far greater funding per head than South East England. What you seem to be pushing for is a Socialist common welfare system centrally imposed by the EU across all its sovereign member states. Something like the EUSSR rather than the EEC perhaps. Who knows, you may have made contradictory statements to this in the past.

The Xenophobic tone of your views on Germany and France aside, you seem less keen on member states acting in their own sovereign interests. It's almost like they weren't allowed to do it until fairly recently!