I'm going for under 150. What's that TV show ... Wipeout?
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I'm going for under 150. What's that TV show ... Wipeout?
Too early to tell I think. At this moment I would say less than 150. Reform will take a bite from both, but it will be a bigger bite from the Conservatives.
Such a result will be interesting. It's the kind of super majority that leads to brief honeymoon periods followed by a lot of infighting, as we saw with the current govt...
The new govt would likely see opposition from within and outside.
It's a nice problem to have I guess, but I think a smaller majority is in the national interest tbh.
Well I hope as few as possible but last nights leaders debate for me showed that Starmer is hopeless reallyQuote:
Originally Posted by az city
For a highly qualified lawyer he seems unable to think on his feet
I'd even go under 100 now.
I'm really hoping it'll be well less than 100 and that the Lib Debs will stop them even being the Official Opposition. Unfortunately that's probably fanciful but I'm rooting for Froggy Farage to do his worst in this instance.
One of my ex work WhatsAp groups (six of us who have been meeting up for a meal and drink for over 30 years) is running an election predictor on: winner; Tory seats; ‘Portillo moment’ and whether Farage, Corbyn and/or Galloway will get elected.
I’m on a high after correctly predicting 6 months ago when the election would be called and who would be Tory PM at the time.
My current pitch is Labour majority (really!), Tories down to 135 (others are going as low as 80), Hunt, Schapps and Mordaunt to provide the Portillo moment (losers face becoming iconic image - although Rees-Mogg is also favoured by some and maybe that is a better shout and one has got Sunak to lose his 27,000 maj), Farage and Corbyn to be elected, Galloway to fall short.
There is still time to change any of those predictions - we have until Sunday to set them in stone.
Is a 135 Tory rump too pessimistic?
The Conservatives are like The Jacks
Hang around like a bad smell
I will be happy with a 75 seat Labour majority and lots of liberals to act as a breakwater
That's pessimistic for me: I was hoping for less than half of that!Quote:
Originally Posted by jon1959
Oh fun game..Quote:
Originally Posted by jon1959
Labour majority.
Tories - 101 seats
Portillo - Jeremey Hunt, Grant Schnapps, Rees Moggy
Farage - In
Corbyn - In
Galloway - Hmmmm, this is tough. I assume he is campaigning hard, so In.
I hope Galloway gets leatheredQuote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
Galloway and Farage. Far Left , Far Right.
Both supporters of Brexit.
Who does best.?
Far right and far left! 😂Quote:
Originally Posted by Hilts
No way Galloway is far left but like Froggy he loves himself
Galloway is left wing economically and socially. Farage is right wing economically and socially. Bit neither are on the extreme by any stretchQuote:
Originally Posted by Dorcus
Ok bit harsh and poorly worded.
Apologies to Galloway.
I'm thinking around 120 now.
More likely lower than that than higher I would say..Quote:
Originally Posted by az city
I think there will be a major shock.
Hung Parliament. Labour coalition with the Libs.
Maybe the best thing. Stop the Tories going further right with the Reform loonies.
My final bid is precisely 100 seats.
Okay here's my guess:
Tories : 115
Greens: 1
Lib Dems: 50
SNP: 20.
Reform: 3
Labour: Whatever the rest is (minus N.Ireland.
Share (in GB)
Lab 38%
Cons 23%
Reform 16%
Lib Dems 13%
Greens: 5%
SNP: 3%
Others: 2%
Seems reasonable to me. The scales on that recent MRP were interesting in the sense that it was predicting the Tories to be the opposition but they actually had a wider range and lower floor than the Lib Dems, suggesting that a bad night for the Tories looks really really bad.Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
My seat Hertford and Stortford (maybe not my seat much longer as I am soon to be evicted under section 21, thank you Tories for saying you would ban that and then not doing it) has been Tory since it's inception and under that MRP it was predicted to go to labour by 9%. I am not quite believing that if I am honest. Tories could do better than expected if the models just didn't really handle their drop in popularity past a certain point.
Sorry to hear about your housing situation Eric. Where may you move to? I hope you have some options?Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric Cartman
Cheers.Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
It's ridiculously expensive round here, I'm too old to go live in a room in a house share. Potentially in with family for a bit (fortunate in that sense) until I work out what to do. Will not be homeless, unlike some people who get kicked out in this way.