Goal difference our Achilles heel...

We have a better goal difference than no-one except the bottom two - and without a miracle they're both out of the relegation picture anyway.

I'm still hopeful with 8 games to go for everyone, but on my forecast chart there are banana skins all over the place with no-one having an 'easy' run-in.

Portsmouth (42pts) have Derby and Hull at home but will also meet four others in with a chance of a play-off place;
Oxford (42 pts) will be facing Boro, Sheff Utd, Leeds and Sunderland which isn't going to be easy;
Hull (41) have Luton, Derby and Pompey which looks good but they'll all be scrapping so they are 6 pointer games;
Stoke (39) play Luton, Cardiff and Derby away on the last day and will also be facing Leeds and Sheff Utd;
City (39) entertain Stoke and Oxford which are must-win you'd think and also play Sheff Wed, QPR and Preston in their next three games - all of whom have nothing to play for - which could be good or bad! Norwich on the last day is another with nothing to play for.
Derby (38) Have crunch games against Pompey, Luton, Hull and Stoke and they also face Burnley and WBA so that's not going to be easy
The bottom two, Luton (35) and Plymouth (33) have it all to do as both face 5 promotion contenders in their runs-in.

Verdict: City play Sheff Wed (12th), QPR (15th) and Preston (14th) in their next 3 games so that's their best shot at getting out of trouble. Also Norwich (13th) on the last day. Stoke and Oxford will come to CCS so they are critical but should be regarded as very winnable games.

Our trouble, to me seems to me, will be earning less than 5 or 6 points from the three upcoming games and if so our goal difference when it comes to scrapping it out after then.

Let's be honest it's a shite league us included.
If you can't scrap out results against sides with fa to play for or sides around you, you deserve to go down

Its very hard to predict at the moment due to so many teams at the bottom playing each other.

Looking at the fixtures I don't think Plymouth or Luton will get more than another 5/6 points each so they're gone.

I think Derby might get another 10/11 points so we are going to need about 50 points to be safe. You just have to hope one of those teams will run into bad form at the wrong time.

Don't discount the jacks either although I think they have an easyish run in.

I wouldn't want to go to Carrow Road on the last day needing something as we hardly ever get anything there.

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Originally Posted by Cowbridge Blue

We have a better goal difference than no-one except the bottom two - and without a miracle they're both out of the relegation picture anyway.

I'm still hopeful with 8 games to go for everyone, but on my forecast chart there are banana skins all over the place with no-one having an 'easy' run-in.

Portsmouth (42pts) have Derby and Hull at home but will also meet four others in with a chance of a play-off place;
Oxford (42 pts) will be facing Boro, Sheff Utd, Leeds and Sunderland which isn't going to be easy;
Hull (41) have Luton, Derby and Pompey which looks good but they'll all be scrapping so they are 6 pointer games;
Stoke (39) play Luton, Cardiff and Derby away on the last day and will also be facing Leeds and Sheff Utd;
City (39) entertain Stoke and Oxford which are must-win you'd think and also play Sheff Wed, QPR and Preston in their next three games - all of whom have nothing to play for - which could be good or bad! Norwich on the last day is another with nothing to play for.
Derby (38) Have crunch games against Pompey, Luton, Hull and Stoke and they also face Burnley and WBA so that's not going to be easy
The bottom two, Luton (35) and Plymouth (33) have it all to do as both face 5 promotion contenders in their runs-in.

Verdict: City play Sheff Wed (12th), QPR (15th) and Preston (14th) in their next 3 games so that's their best shot at getting out of trouble. Also Norwich (13th) on the last day. Stoke and Oxford will come to CCS so they are critical but should be regarded as very winnable games.

Our trouble, to me seems to me, will be earning less than 5 or 6 points from the three upcoming games and if so our goal difference when it comes to scrapping it out after then.

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I don't get your first paragraph.

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Originally Posted by kendoddsdadsdogsdead

I don't get your first paragraph.

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Sorry, it's only Luton and Plymouth that have worse goal differences than us.

But don't get excited about it because they won't gain enough points to trouble City anyway.

Therefore our poor goal difference becomes the worst among those battling to avoid the final relegation spot - and is therefore worth a point to each of them.

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Originally Posted by Cowbridge Blue

Sorry, it's only Luton and Plymouth that have worse goal differences than us.

But don't get excited about it because they won't gain enough points to trouble City anyway.

Therefore our poor goal difference becomes the worst among those battling to avoid the final relegation spot - and is therefore worth a point to each of them.

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So when you said they're both out of the relegation picture you meant they are very much in it and we need to worry about who the third team is.

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Originally Posted by RichardM

So when you said they're both out of the relegation picture you meant they are very much in it and we need to worry about who the third team is.

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Correct Richard - just my opinion, of course :-)

The podcast world is using the last international break of the season to predict what the final table will look like. One of them had three teams in the “on the beach” category already (Preston, QPR and Norwich) and we play all of them, plus Stoke and Oxford at home, while it could be said that Sheffield Wednesday are on the journey to the beach at the moment. Also, there is the chance that West Brom will have confirmed their Play Off place by the time we play them - there can’t be any claims about us being unlucky if we’re relegated because we’ll have deserved it.

The podcast that had three of our remaining eight opponents on the beach thought we’d finish twentieth, but the others were less hopeful. One of them had us in twenty second on forty six points, one behind Stoke, after only winning one more match, at QPR. The other one didn’t make formal predictions, but had us as a side that will not be safe going into our last game with one of the presenters saying our win at Blackburn counted for little because we’d have been in a right mess if we couldn’t win there.

For myself, I can’t trust us after that Luton game. We’re the type of team that could look all but safe after taking six points from the next two games, only to then lose our last six - as a club, City deserve to go down and, up to now, the squad does as well, but they can still redeem themselves over the next six weeks or so.

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

The podcast world is using the last international break of the season to predict what the final table will look like. One of them had three teams in the “on the beach” category already (Preston, QPR and Norwich) and we play all of them, plus Stoke and Oxford at home, while it could be said that Sheffield Wednesday are on the journey to the beach at the moment. Also, there is the chance that West Brom will have confirmed their Play Off place by the time we play them - there can’t be any claims about us being unlucky if we’re relegated because we’ll have deserved it.

The podcast that had three of our remaining eight opponents on the beach thought we’d finish twentieth, but the others were less hopeful. One of them had us in twenty second on forty six points, one behind Stoke, after only winning one more match, at QPR. The other one didn’t make formal predictions, but had us as a side that will not be safe going into our last game with one of the presenters saying our win at Blackburn counted for little because we’d have been in a right mess if we couldn’t win there.

For myself, I can’t trust us after that Luton game. We’re the type of team that could look all but safe after taking six points from the next two games, only to then lose our last six - as a club, City deserve to go down and, up to now, the squad does as well, but they can still redeem themselves over the next six weeks or so.

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We will have to count ourselves as being lucky yet again if we don’t get relegated this season!

I hope we manage to cling on and after continual stagnation albeit apart from finishing 12th last season, that the club conducts a full and thorough review of how it’s run.

There’s only so many times that luck will favour you

If the board are just content to tick along until the court case is resolved, then that’s fine

As long as there not expecting a big up take in ST sales, and are happy to see crowds dwindling

Something has got to change

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Originally Posted by Cowbridge Blue

Our trouble, to me seems to me, will be earning less than 5 or 6 points from the three upcoming games and if so our goal difference when it comes to scrapping it out after then.

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Our trouble, seems to me, is that our team isn’t very good and our management set-up is poor.

Writing Luton off with eight games to go is almost certainly unwise.

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

The podcast world is using the last international break of the season to predict what the final table will look like. One of them had three teams in the “on the beach” category already (Preston, QPR and Norwich)....

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Some of these podcasters talk a load of tosh, don't they? 'On the beach' Preston beat Portsmouth in their last game, while 'on the beach' QPR drew with Leeds.

Look at us last season - mid-table at this stage of the season with no chance of going up and no chance of going down. Marooned in mid-table. With five games to go we beat Birmingham, who were battling against relegation and eventually went down by one point. With three games to go we beat Southampton, who were fighting for promotion.

So much for being on the beach.

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

Some of these podcasters talk a load of tosh, don't they?

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Yes, and it's surprising how many take what they say as chapter and verse.

My boy listens to a lot of these and spends ages telling me how they're correct and make sense. I'm trying to get him to realise the difference between facts and opinions and it does get on my nerves when people dress up opinions as "facts" when they blatantly are no such thing. Sadly there are enough stupid people in the world who don't know the difference.

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

Our trouble, seems to me, is that our team isn’t very good and our management set-up is poor.

Writing Luton off with eight games to go is almost certainly unwise.

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Exactly...by all accounts they slaughtered Middlesbrough the other day...without scoring..

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

The podcast world is using the last international break of the season to predict what the final table will look like. One of them had three teams in the “on the beach” category already (Preston, QPR and Norwich) and we play all of them, plus Stoke and Oxford at home, while it could be said that Sheffield Wednesday are on the journey to the beach at the moment. Also, there is the chance that West Brom will have confirmed their Play Off place by the time we play them - there can’t be any claims about us being unlucky if we’re relegated because we’ll have deserved it.

The podcast that had three of our remaining eight opponents on the beach thought we’d finish twentieth, but the others were less hopeful. One of them had us in twenty second on forty six points, one behind Stoke, after only winning one more match, at QPR. The other one didn’t make formal predictions, but had us as a side that will not be safe going into our last game with one of the presenters saying our win at Blackburn counted for little because we’d have been in a right mess if we couldn’t win there.

For myself, I can’t trust us after that Luton game. We’re the type of team that could look all but safe after taking six points from the next two games, only to then lose our last six - as a club, City deserve to go down and, up to now, the squad does as well, but they can still redeem themselves over the next six weeks or so.

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Nor me. The various 'run-ins' of each team is somewhat irrelevant, insomuch as they all seem capable of picking up a point here or there from teams in the top half. Down to the wire for me, and by that I'm discounting Norwich away..

99 times out of 100 the teams with the worst goal difference are relegated in all divisions!

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Originally Posted by kendoddsdadsdogsdead

Exactly...by all accounts they slaughtered Middlesbrough the other day...without scoring..

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I saw the highlights, Luton missed numerous chances and the Middlesbrough keeper pulled off a series of fine saves, they very much think they’re in with a chance of staying up and also probably think their squad is “too good to go down”

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Originally Posted by lincoln blue

99 times out of 100 the teams with the worst goal difference are relegated in all divisions!

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These days...

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Originally Posted by lincoln blue

99 times out of 100 the teams with the worst goal difference are relegated in all divisions!

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Simply not true

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Originally Posted by lincoln blue

99 times out of 100 the teams with the worst goal difference are relegated in all divisions!

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No.

As it stands it wouldn't apply to 3 out of the 4 divisions.

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Originally Posted by Hilts

No.

As it stands it wouldn't apply to 3 out of the 4 divisions.

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The season hasn't ended yet, very rare for a teams with shocking goal differences/averages to survive!

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Originally Posted by lincoln blue

The season hasn't ended yet, very rare for a teams with shocking goal differences/averages to survive!

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Birmingham were relegated last season with a goal difference of -15. Cardiff City finished 12th with a goal difference of -17. Meanwhile, Sheffield Wednesday finished 20th with a goal difference of -24.

In 2020/21, Rotherham were relegated with a goal difference of -16. Four teams had worse goal differences but survived.

I’m a firm believer that goal difference gives you some extra insight into how a team is doing, and can be a reasonable predictor for whether a team is likely to struggle or thrive.

Yet, in theory, a team can be relatively safe, even if they repeatedly lose 1 match, draw 1 match and win 1 match, with a goal difference of -2 for each set of 3 matches.

Gives them a total of about 60 points and a goal difference of -30

Hi guys, copy this into a spreadsheet and try some guestimatesAttachment 6487