8 games to go - 1 point above the drop zone - the past 10 Championship seasons
In total, 30 sides have been relegated from the Championship over the last 10 seasons.
5 of those 30 sides were outside the relegation zone with 8 games to go; 25 were in the bottom 3. Included in this stat are Reading, who were docked 6 points in 2022/23 but would still have been outside the bottom 3 had the deduction occurred sooner.
Reading are one of only two sides in the last decade to have gone down having been more than a point ahead of the bottom 3.
In 6 of the last 10 seasons, the gap between 21st and the bottom 3 has been one point or fewer. 4 of those sides have survived, only 2 have been relegated. Both of those sides that were relegated were level on points with one or more sides in the bottom 3, so no side in the last decade in 21st has gone down having had more points than the side in 22nd. Of course, 3 sides placed higher than 21st have gone down.
In 6 of the last 10 seasons, the bottom 3 with 8 games to go have all gone down. In only 1 of the last 10 seasons have two sides outside the bottom 3 at this point in the season been relegated. Needless to say, the distance sides are away from the bottom 3 is important. Of the 5 sides that have survived after being in the bottom 3 with 8 games to go, 3 recovered from being 4 or more points adrift from safety.
What does that all mean for us? It's impossible to predict what is going to happen at the end of the season. However, being outside the bottom 3, even by a slender point, is more likely to mean survival than relegation, while not too many teams recover when they're in the bottom 3. Luton and Plymouth will do very well to survive. It's also worth suggesting that teams as far as Portsmouth are not safe, though Swansea probably are.
Re: 8 games to go - 1 point above the drop zone - the past 10 Championship seasons
Gives me a little bit of hope.
Thanks Eric.
Re: 8 games to go - 1 point above the drop zone - the past 10 Championship seasons
i was a negative nelly (moi) before xmas and was certain we would go down. Now i'm fairly positive we will stay up so i've gone and jinxed that then. And for the Wrexham haters! for want of a better word. If! they come up that will be one hell of a derby drawing more crowds than swansea.
Re: 8 games to go - 1 point above the drop zone - the past 10 Championship seasons
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ToTaL ITK
i was a negative nelly (moi) before xmas and was certain we would go down. Now i'm fairly positive we will stay up so i've gone and jinxed that then. And for the Wrexham haters! for want of a better word. If! they come up that will be one hell of a derby drawing more crowds than swansea.
Yeah wrexham won't mess it up from here. They will have a good shout of going up again in the Championship. They'll be top 6 anyway. Definitely most likely welsh team to get to premier league and they would be set up to stay there and kick on also.
Re: 8 games to go - 1 point above the drop zone - the past 10 Championship seasons
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Father Dougal
Yeah wrexham won't mess it up from here. They will have a good shout of going up again in the Championship. They'll be top 6 anyway. Definitely most likely welsh team to get to premier league and they would be set up to stay there and kick on also.
If Wrexham make the playoffs next season, I'd be extremely surprised. They've got James McClean as one of their best players. There's a giant leap and their side is full of Championship rejects or past it players.
Re: 8 games to go - 1 point above the drop zone - the past 10 Championship seasons
If Wrexham do get promoted, there is no way they will reach the PL next season a la Ipswich or indeed get anywhere near the top 6 unless they spend mega money on new recruits, which is highly unlikely.
Re: 8 games to go - 1 point above the drop zone - the past 10 Championship seasons
IF!!! and ony if Wrexham get promoted then i agree with you guys , no way on a direct up to the Prem. they would have to spend 100's of millions and what i've seen of the owners they aren't that stupid with their cash. Let's hope we can stay up and join the party.
Re: 8 games to go - 1 point above the drop zone - the past 10 Championship seasons
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Former Labour leader
Gives me a little bit of hope.
Thanks Eric.
What gives me hope, is that we have a stronger team for the run-in with winnable games than we did before Christmas. Turnbull and Davies back, Salech, Alves, and Mannsverk are positive. Hopefully, they are working with the defence and he can find his best four in this break, organise, and stick with them.
