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Watching the results and performances under Warnock it seems we've made a step in the right direction but are still stuck in the relegation zone.
I wanted to see if what seems to be an improvement actually is and if it's enough to keep us up?
So here's my look at how Warnock has changed us over his time here and whether its working:
http://theonlystat.blogspot.co.uk/20...d-cardiff.html
Hope you enjoy it and I'd be very happy for any feedback.
I'll start with a bit of a moan - I would have been very interested to have read those charts you produced, but couldn't do so because the print was so small and I don't think the coloured text helped either.Quote:
Originally Posted by Norbiton Dragon
Apart from that though, I enjoyed it and it's good to see what I think is a general feeling that we've improved under Warnock backed up by statistics.
I agree with you about the selling of the two goalkeepers. To be fair to Ben Amos, who I was pretty critical of before he'd played a game for us, I've not seen him concede many goals that he could be blamed for, but, by the same token, it's hard to think of many outstanding saves from him either - might there be some goals he has let in that Marshall, or even Moore, might have prevented?
Regarding those defensive stats, the conclusion I arrive at when reading is that we should not be conceding as many goals as we are doing (there are still only two sides in the division who have let in more than us). Therefore, I wonder if sheer bad luck might be a factor in why we concede so many? I'm thinking in particular here of Huddersfield's second goal which would not have flown in like it did on nine out of ten occasions - also, we are conceding an awful lot of penalties this season.
Good read
Sorry about the charts Bob. If you click the image it will expand to a much bigger and readable version. (I've added a line in the piece to make that clear as well.)
I think our poor defensive record is a combination of factors.
For example, Tomlin's goal when we were already 2-0 up vs Bristol City was a poor one to concede by Amos and I suspect Marshall or Moore would have stopped that.
And the penalties are a concern. Some of that is down to bad luck, but also down to poor defensive play.
Good read :xmasthumbup:
Has Colin improved our style of play
Has Colin improved our squad
Has Colin improved our goal scoring
Has Colin improved our under 18/23 set up
Has Colin improved our attendance
Has Colin improved our chance of survival
I'd have to say there is very little improvement if any. We have taken 4 points from the last 5 games and 3 of the games were home.
On that sort of form we are screwed.
Who is Colin.?
Thanks for the appreciation Rjk and LlanedeyrnBlue.
Think I'm missing something Tandy, sorry.
Basically we've won 3 drawn 2 and lost 3 - mid table form, from a far more difficult run of fixtures than the ones Trollope achieved relegation form in so yes, he's improved us a lot.
It's not you, it's Tandy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Norbiton Dragon
He's missing his dad Russell.
As well as a few brain cells
He will be on in a minute saying you are Liverpool fan.:xmashehe:Quote:
Originally Posted by TH63
No, you are the Liverpool fan and TH63 is a Eric Bristow fan :xmashehe:Quote:
Originally Posted by jeepster
:xmashehe:Nasty man.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tandy
That about sums it up nicely and simply :thumbup:Quote:
Originally Posted by Lawnmower
Fwiw I can't stand Bristow, I just didn't see too much wrong with his first tweet, the subsequent tweets were a different matter.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tandy
Agreed, Trollope got us into this mess, warnock is doing a decent job of trying to get us out of it.Quote:
Originally Posted by life on mars
Not yet but he will get us better...... Bout halfway up the league but sadly a decline compared to last season and at what cost?
yea yeaQuote:
Originally Posted by TH63
its all too late now, Casual has taken your " Chief Inspector of the CCMB Morality Police " badge of you, you will have to do some serious moral policing to get it back now
Yes, but *anyone* can win a few games through a bit of footballing luck, I wanted to see if what Warnock's done is likely to be sustainable. From the stats so far, it seems to be.Quote:
Originally Posted by life on mars
He's welcome to it :hehe:Quote:
Originally Posted by blue matt
Thanks for taking the time and effort to produce that analysis. It was genuinely illuminating and reassuring. I hope the stats do tell the tale in this case...Quote:
Originally Posted by Norbiton Dragon
I wasnt knocking your hard work, more a response to Tandy's rather bizarre post.Quote:
Originally Posted by Norbiton Dragon
Not a lot of difference between Warnock and Slade's teams. Warnock is a bit more animated but, with cold analysis, we are better off than we were with Trollope, and about 25% off what we were with Slade.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lawnmower
If Warnock came from a teaching background, he'd be vilified here. It's only his reputation that is keeping the fanbase on side.
I've been watching Cardiff for many years now and I completely disagree. Whether results are better or not, I feel a damn sight better inclined towards Warnock's teams than Slade's. This is because he seems to have a plan to take us forward and not just about do enough. Whether Slade would have been able to take this next step with the backing he'd have needed is debatable - mainly because no-one cared about the team any more regardless of the results. If you didn't feel that too then I'm surprised.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kris
Slade's "doing just about enough" never saw his team in the bottom three. I know Warnock inherited a bad set of results from Trollope, but where is the turnaround? We've had the new manager effect, it's worn off, it's time for Warnock to live up to your expectations. Not mine, I've long thought he is over-rated.Quote:
Originally Posted by Penarth Blues
No worries. Thansk and apologies for the mis-understanding.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lawnmower
If we're looking purely at first team results, then you might have a point. With one exception, Warnock's team have not produced anything that could be called entertaining yet, but he's got the excuse that he inherited a team in the bottom three that was shaping up for a season long battle against the drop - what was Slade's excuse for the boring football his sides produced for two seasons? I say one exception because the Huddersfield match was a good game of football that was only equalled during Slade's time by the match with Brighton where I'm still trying to work out which of the two teams had been nobbled - maybe they both were?Quote:
Originally Posted by Kris
Let's face it, Slade never did anything to suggest that he was interested in what was happening below first team level, whereas Warnock is attempting to shake up an Academy/Development team system which stagnated so much under our Russell. Also, Warnock's only been here about seven weeks and he's already met fans at Cardiff City Stadium, Pontypridd and Maesteg as well as paying a goodwill visit to that a company near Merthyr I believe it was, he's putting Slade (who, as far as I can recall, had just the one meeting with fans in two years) to shame in that department.
Don't judge all Slade critics by the same standards, I was supportive of him when he first arrived and defended him against those who, wrongly in my view, were against him from day one, but, after about six weeks or so, it became clear that all he could offer was a holding operation.
If a manager was only assessed on first team results, then Slade could be said to have done a decent job in testing circumstances, but there's more to it than that and he was either out of his depth or wasn't bothered about things like youth development (he's the worst Cardiff manager I've seen as far as that goes) or being an ambassador for the club - put that together with a transfer record which was mixed at best and it's clear that Warnock is as much in a different league to Slade as the two men's managerial record would suggest.
Average possession per game under Trolls - 45%
Average possession per game under Colin - 37%
Is that an improvement or is the question to complicated for you?
This from opta.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tandy
Opta now record possession in a football match by means of an automated calculation based on the number of passes that a team has in a game. We have two analysts, each monitoring one of the teams and they log each event in a game, totalling between 1600 and 2000 events per match.
Possession stats really mean very little in the grand scheme of things.
A shitload of 5yd passes between the defenders will boost your stats but wont indicate any dominance in a game.
YES
Trolls 11 games in charge and his teams achieved over 50% possession on 6 occasions.
Colin 8 games in charge and his teams have yet to achieve 50% possession on any occasion.
Is that an improvement?
Never mind a shed load of excuses Just answer the question. :facepalm:Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie
No excuse, but if you're going to cling to possession stats to win a debate then you should know how worthless they really are.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tandy
Just had a quick look and Swansea had 40% possession against spurs on the weekend and from the result you can see how well that worked out for them.
In my opinion there is an ongoing improvement which will continue through the season, interesting to see what kind of business Warnock can get done in January.
you are trying to push water uphillQuote:
Originally Posted by Charlie
Yep.Quote:
Originally Posted by TISS
Are you saying that all football statistics are worthless or just the ones that you think are worthless?Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie
Tell us all which statistics you think are not worthless. To lend credibility to your debate.
The only completely worthwhile stat is the final score, all the rest are just dressing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tandy
I grew up watching football before stats were a thing,back then an assist was known as a pass or a cross.
Watching a game will give you a much better understanding of how a game went than umpteen stats telling you info that generally mean nothing.
Its just ,to me that possession stats are particularly worthless as they are judged on number of passes. The Swansea example should tell you that.
The OP is full of stats which you didn't question? Yet when I reply with some stats of my own you render them worthless.
The OP is trying to prove that we are improving under Colin using stats, I am countering is argument using some stats of my own.
I think the possession stat is the most important, you may believe a couple of 5 yard passes are meaningless but we seem to struggle to achieve such a feat.
I haven't looked at the link from the OP as i'm not a lover of stats in football,that's why i haven't made any mention of them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tandy
You posted two possession stats and asked a question of them,which i did reply to just to point out how they are arrived at, not to question the validity of them.
If you think they are important,fine. I don't, particularly through knowing how they are calculated.
The more i witness Tandy's inane dribblings the more i'm leaning towards believing it's some nobhead like Barnett