I think the current use of the term is clearly related to England potentially winning it. Although you could say in 2021 the tournament for them has almost entirely been played in England too.
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Rightly or wrongly, I took “Football’s coming home” to mean it’s back where it was “invented” (although that claim would be disputed I suspect) in 1996.
England could turn a nursery rhyme into a pompous celebration of how supposedly great they are. Besides, when they sing "home" do they mean the mainly Celtic areas of the British Isles from early half of the first millennia? Or maybe they think Italy will win and are harking back to the Roman Empire. I'll suppose we'll never know.
It's just a topical saying really. To paraphrase Kasper, "Has it been home before ? You've never actually won it". Even more pertinent coming from a Dane because Denmark have won it.
Whichever way you look at it, it is still an arrogant notion based on a sense of entitlement. Although to be fair I suspect there was a sense of self-deprecation when Three Lions was penned, based on a lifetime of near misses and abject failure by the England team.
I might have missed it, but was the song regarded as negatively and cynically in 1996? I genuinely don't remember it being so. I just remember thinking it was a pretty catchy and better than normal football song, but, now I look at the phrase "it's coming home" and agree that there is a degree of arrogance involved in it.
That seems odd to me - why didn't I feel like that twenty five years ago? I think you're right to a large extent in saying that the song was written with a degree of good humour and affection, but I'd also say that the sort of response I have to the term now is down, to a large extent, to how polarised the world has become - I don't like this trait in myself, but I'm less likely these days to see the humour in things and less inclined to give others the benefit of the doubt compared to a quarter of a century ago and I think I'm far from alone in being like that, the world is a less friendly place than it was.