:thumbup: i thought it strange you didnt replyQuote:
Originally Posted by goats
flights for Oct wont be out yet, but in a few weeks time, get on it with the cheaper 1st seats, i think thats what i did for Aug as under 20 booked on the flights
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:thumbup: i thought it strange you didnt replyQuote:
Originally Posted by goats
flights for Oct wont be out yet, but in a few weeks time, get on it with the cheaper 1st seats, i think thats what i did for Aug as under 20 booked on the flights
I'd say that if it is correct that a two or three week lockdown could delay the progress of the virus for four weeks as has been claimed, then it's worth it if it is right that a vaccine is close to being rolled out. Whether this is true or not is hard to be sure about because there have been mixed messages about vaccines in the last month or so, but my attitude has always been lives over business as far as the virus is concerned - throughout history, people have been adaptable and innovative when reacting to changed circumstances in the business world and have a feeling that this will continue in what was being called the new normal a few months back.Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Morris
That said, I agree about mixed messages - the UK Governments three tier system was supposed to clarify things with easy to understand definitions which would enable people to understand exactly what was expected of them in the area they lived. However, the new system has barely got up and running and already we start hearing about differences within the tier three category between Liverpool and Lancashire - it's hardly worth bothering with if this is going to become the norm, they may as well have just kept the previous system in place.
Ive got flights to Greece but they are rearranged from this year. I think theres every chance I will be doing the same again. Really dont fancy a 4 hour flight in a pandemic.
Despite the lower number of cases in the community, I suspect that hospitals in Wales are closer to breaking point.Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
It’s quite amazing how much money they can waste, bumbling along. Apart from the vaccine which I’ve hear could possibly roll out around Christmas for those most in need, the twenty minute test that you can do from home is the one they really need to get on with. They’ve got it elsewhere, Boris says no need to buy it as we are developing our own....:facepalm:Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Morris
Been busy this week and don’t glance up to the top of the screen enough.....:hehe:Quote:
Originally Posted by blue matt
How long do you think it will take to vaccinate the entire population?Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
A long time, but, hopefully, those whose need is the greatest can be done quickly - once those who needed to be shielded have been given the protection of a vaccination, the situation changes and businesses that have been worst affected can return to something close to normal.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeningradCowboy
Over 70 first.....how many are left after the Tories tried to kill them all off in April?Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
I very much doubt they will operate close to normal when there is a vaccine for the most vulnerable. Any vaccine is very unlikely to guarantee protection.Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
I doubt they will even vaccinate the entire population.
The likeliest is the most vulnerable and key workers are going to need regular vaccinations. I just cant see say the under 30s with no underlying health conditions being regularly being vaccinated for something that is unlikely to affect them.
The only way the entire population gets vaccinated if something comes along where one jab near 100 percent protects you for life and thats not going to happen.
Normal or near normal will probably be when we come to an acceptable point we can control and live with it.
Although I'd have usually had it by now and still haven't heard anything about having one this year yet, I've had a flu vaccination annually for close to a decade and I can definitely say that I don't give the flu a second thought after having had my yearly jab. My attitude towards Covid would change greatly if I was able to have the same sort of thing every year - I'm certainly not expecting any vaccine to be a case of have one and then you have protection for life, but I'm sure it would lead to a great deal more peace of mind for those of state pension age who aren't in the anti vaxxer camp.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hilts
Once the most vulnerable have protection, there is less urgency to vaccinate those who, statistically, are very unlikely to have serious, life threatening, symptoms and so those of, say, thirty and under who must be hating all of the restrictions to their lives which aren't really necessary on a personal level, will be able to get on with their lives again.
Agree with most of that.Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
On a side im hearing from a local business who have been given a nudge pubs will shut 6pm next Friday and reopen Monday 9th November. So knocking 3 weekends of drinking out.
The supermarkets will be like Christmas then this week with people loading up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hilts
The priority list for getting the COVID jab when available is as follows:
Older adults' resident in a care home and care home workers
All those 80 years of age and over and health and social care workers
All those 75 years of age and over
All those 70 years of age and over
All those 65 years of age and over
High-risk adults under 65 years of age
Moderate-risk adults under 65 years of age
All those 60 years of age and over
All those 55 years of age and over
All those 50 years of age and over
Rest of the population (priority to be determined)
It seems those most responsible for spreading the virus - students and the late night partiers in City Centres - don't even make the list.
Tragic.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hilts
Yeah most are dead quiet anyway. I went inside (been to a few outside over the summer) a pub In Cardiff for the first time Since March last night, The Albany in Roath, quite a shock to see it how it was, most tables taken but so few tables there can’t have been more than 30/40 in the whole place. Surely that’s not viable....Quote:
Originally Posted by Gofer Blue
And then getting pissed in each other's houses where they're more likely to spread the disease. Whoever is making up these rules has no idea how people behave in the real world.Quote:
Originally Posted by Monster munch
Like boris, mogg And HancockQuote:
Originally Posted by LeningradCowboy
They don't make the rules in Wales.Quote:
Originally Posted by goats
Maybe Johnson, Hancock and Cummings - just like the pub sign!Quote:
Originally Posted by goats
https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/14/wirra...sign-13423981/
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/m...-a4571141.html
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-b1041343.html
They do really, we get our budget from them at the end of the dayQuote:
Originally Posted by LeningradCowboy
As posted in another thread as well
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Get ready Wales.... FM preparing the ground yesterday for a “fire-break” and saying officials would look at it over the weekend. Appears from this <a href="https://twitter.com/WelshGovernment?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@WelshGovernm ent</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/fmwales?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@fmwales</a> have already made up their mind ���� <a href="https://t.co/thrvEs9Azv">https://t.co/thrvEs9Azv</a></p>— Rupert Evelyn (@rupertevelyn) <a href="https://twitter.com/rupertevelyn/status/1317472127294099458?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 17, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Another nail in the coffin of the Welsh economy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Morris
Not all and thank feck for that.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeningradCowboy
Lessons from earlier in the year: a short, sharp lockdown early on is better than prolonged, heavy restrictions later on. Mask wearing, social distancing, hand hygiene and effective test, track, trace system with good compliance allows for much of normal life to resume but making people overly worried about attending hospitals or going into shops creates too much pain elsewhere.
Just shield the vulnerable? It doesn't make sense: https://twitter.com/NeilDotObrien/st...46902605729792
Full twitter thread: https://twitter.com/NeilDotObrien/st...46947224707072Quote:
Originally Posted by surge
Sorry but I was being sarcastic. It wouldn't affect me personally if the pubs (which don't serve meals) never opened again. Obviously it would be sad for the folk who work in such pubs but there it is.Quote:
Originally Posted by goats
Yep and one has to wonder if it will make a shred of difference. I saw a graph yesterday stating almost all of the main Covid transmission was from households mixing, nothing to do with restaurants, shops or gyms etc...Quote:
Originally Posted by LeningradCowboy
It's ironic that here in Toytown and the rest of the UK too, they're closing/restricting the very places where hygiene and social distancing are most rigorously enforced..Quote:
Originally Posted by goats
Those 'most responsible' sit on the front bench of the government side of the HOC and they will be top of that list.Quote:
Originally Posted by Vindec
Sure, now those already mixing and drinking around other people’s houses will have even less places to go and will no doubt be joined by 1000’s of others who now have nothing else to do. It’s not May, it’s October.Quote:
Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish
Surely that is the fault of individuals as the virus is transmitted from person to person. If people can't behave responsibly then we are stuffed.Quote:
Originally Posted by goats
That’s the main issue I feel....there are way too many stupid people here. I guess these are the folks getting it so maybe they will learn in time.Quote:
Originally Posted by Vindec
But the fist pumping bufoon says trust in the British people.Quote:
Originally Posted by Vindec
Any politician blaming the public would be heavily criticised by the media even though the public in general would probably agree that individuals should accept responsibility not only for themselves but others.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hilts
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54583892
Wales circuit-breaker lockdown plan 'frustration'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/a...-foggiest.htmlQuote:
Last week, Tory MPs planning to rebel over the 10pm rule were offered the chance to hear from one of the Government's most senior scientific experts about why the curfew was vital to the fight against coronavirus.
'The whips arranged a conference call with Jonathan Van-Tam [Deputy Chief Medical Officer],' one rebel explained.
'He was supposed to convince us to back the Government. But when we asked if 10pm would make a major difference, he said, 'Not really. I'd prefer 6pm. Or even earlier.' '
We are supposed to be 'following the science'. But this morning, more than half the UK population is living under some form of 'local' lockdown. And there isn't a shred of epidemiological evidence their incarceration will prove effective.
Van-Tam destroyed the fiction surrounding 10pm. Just as his colleague, Professor Peter Openshaw, of Imperial College, did last month for the Rule of Six.
'It does seem somewhat irrational in some of the detail,' he admitted. It was left to the Chief Medical Officer himself, Chris Whitty, to blow apart the Government's shiny new three-tier 'traffic light' lockdown system.
'I am not confident, nor is anybody confident, that the Tier 3 proposals for the highest rates, if we did the absolute base case and nothing more, would be enough to get on top of it,' he said only hours after Boris had unveiled them.
To the Government's critics, this is further evidence of how Boris and his Ministers have let the Covid crisis spiral out of their control. Or even worse, have callously and belatedly opted to use the British people as a human shield for the economy.
But as the coronavirus second wave begins to take the nation in its steely grip, something else has become tragically apparent.
It's impossible for Boris to follow the science, because the scientists themselves haven't got the faintest idea what the science actually is.
On Monday, Westminster was rocked by the release of the latest Sage minutes. They revealed that on September 21, the panel of experts had determined Covid was spiralling out of control and a new host of measures was required, including a 'circuit-breaker lockdown'. Yet Ministers had rejected their counsel.
For Keir Starmer, this was the moment to stop the flip-flopping and strike. 'You know that the science backs this approach,' he taunted at PMQs.
'You know that the restrictions you're introducing won't be enough. You know that a circuit-break is needed now to get this virus under control.'
Except that the science doesn't back this approach. Tucked away at the bottom of the bombshell Sage minute is the following passage about circuit-breakers: 'The evidence base into the effectiveness and harms of these interventions is generally weak. However, the urgency of the situation is such that we cannot wait for better quality evidence before making decisions.'
It then details what needs to be done to produce some actual science to support a circuit-breaker.
Collection and analysis of contact-tracing data. More detailed data on the places where people are interacting and what they're doing. A proper study on the harms and impact of different interventions in different settings.
But as Sage makes clear, none of that has actually been done. In its own words, we cannot wait for the science.
As a result, ministerial patience with their scientific 'experts' is wearing thin.
Last week, Rishi Sunak attended a meeting with Chris Whitty and NHS chief executive Sir Simon Stevens.
'They were trying to push for a stricter lockdown on hospitality,' a Minister reveals. 'But Rishi pushed back.
'He started digging deeper into the numbers. And they didn't stand up. He said, 'Sorry, but you're being too selective with these figures.' '
Other Ministers are becoming concerned about how the scientists increasingly seem to view their role as being that of pro-lockdown spin doctors, rather than objective experts.
They point in particular to the infamous graph 'projecting' 50,000 infections by mid-October. And their increasingly fast and loose use of headline-grabbing language.
'What's all this circuit-breaker rubbish?' one Minister asked. 'It's not a circuit-breaker. It's switching off the current. And if you do that you also switch it off to the entire economy. And then what happens when you turn it back on again?' There is also growing anger at the way Ministers are having to carry the can for decisions effectively made by their advisers.
'Take care homes,' said one Government aide. 'Why did we move people out of hospitals? Because the scientists told us we had to create new capacity. They told us there was only minimal risk of asymptomatic transmission. And they told us even if there wasn't, we didn't have a test that could pick up asymptomatic infection anyway.
'So with that advice what Minister is going to say, 'Let's keep them all in hospital anyway?' '
And there is one other significant thing that has knocked ministerial confidence in their advisers. It's called the 'Caprice Factor'.
On March 16, the former model appeared on the Jeremy Vine show. Why weren't we opting for a snap two-week lockdown and insisting everyone wore a mask, she asked. And was promptly lambasted.
'If we stop everything, if everybody was electronically tagged to their homes for the next two weeks, we would stop the cases for two weeks, and the moment everyone left, we'd see an enormous spike,' insisted fellow guest Dr Sarah Jarvis.
Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jenny Harries warned that wearing a mask was 'not a good idea. You can actually trap the virus in the mask and start breathing it in', she said.
Her views were echoed by Jonathan Van-Tam. There was 'no evidence that general wearing of face masks by the public who are well affects the spread of the disease in our society', he said. Now it looks like Caprice was right. And the experts were wrong.
When the pandemic started, Ministers had no option. Indeed none of us had any option. The science and the scientists had to be followed.
But we can no longer ignore the facts. The scientists told Ministers if they locked down too early it would cost lives. And those same scientists are now queuing up to say we locked down too late.
The scientists told Ministers there was a low risk of asymptomatic transmission of the virus. And they now admit it occurred, and ran rampant through our care homes.
The scientists told Ministers masks wouldn't work. Now they are telling us all they are a vital part of the fight against Covid.
On Thursday, I spoke to a Conservative MP from the East of England whose local hospital currently has a single Covid patient.
'The scientists want a two-week circuit-breaker for the entire country,' he said.
'Fine. So can they show me the science that proves locking down my seat will help protect NHS capacity in Manchester and Liverpool?'
The answer is no. Because the scientists have basically given up on their own science. Their attitude is no longer to adopt an evidence- based approach to tackling the pandemic. Instead, they are resorting to chucking whatever they can at Covid in the hope something – anything – might just work.
When it doesn't, we should all remember the time when Britain's finest scientific and medical minds told the nation: 'We cannot wait for better quality evidence before making decisions.'
And then someone should call Caprice.
How can we follow the science when the scientists haven't the foggiest?
The problem is that a roomful of scientists may have differing views but with luck can reach a conclusion. However, speaking personally, I would prefer to take the views of experienced scientists over those on a football message board any day.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeningradCowboy
950 new cases in Wales, including 260 plus in Cardiff and just over 200 in RCT, but there were nearly 13,000 tests done which I believe is well above the daily average.