I'd like to agree with you but I can't be bothered. I'm all 'dire warnings' fatigued. :tumbleweed:Quote:
Originally Posted by delmbox
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I'd like to agree with you but I can't be bothered. I'm all 'dire warnings' fatigued. :tumbleweed:Quote:
Originally Posted by delmbox
to be fair you could start an argument in an empty lift thoughQuote:
Originally Posted by xsnaggle
Now come on, you know how I'm going to reply to that don't you? :hehe:Quote:
Originally Posted by delmbox
Yes, it was and 200 deaths a day by November. I can remember thinking that deaths figure was ridiculous given where it was when the claim was made, but, unfortunately, we're ahead of schedule on that one. There were just short of 200 people died yesterday to follow on from nearly 250 the day before, so we're on schedule for 1,000 Covid deaths in a seven day period and when you look at it like that, the tens of thousands of deaths this winter prediction doesn't look too far wrong. Just as in the spring, we have been a few weeks behind mainland Europe, but, already, this week's daily death's figures are comparing poorly with countries like France, Italy, Spain, Germany etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rjk
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
It's beginning to look like virtually nothing was learned from what happened in the UK in the spring.
Death rates are key here I think Bob. Back in the spring it went from 100 a day to over 1000 a day quite quick, over a 2/3 week period looking at that graph. Cases were always going to go up tenfold now due to the mass testing we are now doing. Next few weeks are critical as this will dictate the whole winter restrictions I think. Death rates keep going up we can forget about lockdowns being lifted. Mainland Europe seems to be in free fall at the moment aswell.
What still amazes me is the general publics attitude — it’s the same people out there who still don’t believe it’s real. I’ll admit I had a good end of summer, didn’t take the piss but went out quite a bit with small groups with the mrs and friends and was nice, thought we were through it and on the road to recovery but clearly it’s now back and I’m prepared to sacrifice as best we can. Haven’t been out since mid September. Chatting to some friends last night however, one said see you in the spring after hibernation, general acceptance of winter restrictions and on my sort of level and the other actually said fancy the pub this evening getting on it before they close!! That’s where in the uk nothing has been learnt as the same folk charging about without a care are still behaving exactly the same way. Mental.
Deaths are linked to the hospital outbreaks aren’t they? If they can just make sure that doesn’t happen I can’t see the numbers going up like before. Vaccine can’t come quick enough......
I don't think death rates are so important now. There's a better understanding of how to deal with the worst cases so I don't think it will be as bad as earlier this year.
However, it is still very infectious and it doesn't have to kill to be a major concern. Long covid worries me more than the death rate.
Most of the positive cases in cardiff are the students In halls which I guess is to be expected.Quote:
Originally Posted by lardy
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/w...dents-19143080
Quote:
The biggest questions that governments in every part of the UK have to answer are these: the lockdown was justified partly as a means to buy time to put the systems (tracktrace/effective small local lockdowns/mass testing etc) in place which would mean we might not need to...
... return to onerous blanket restrictions either nationally or across large swathes of the country. Given such restrictions are returning- what happened to those systems? What effect have they had? Were these the wrong strategies in the first place? And now do we need new ones?
Because though obviously the acute problem of the rising cases is worrying, perhaps the bigger worry is the strategic one: the fact we’re at all and there’s not much sense yet from any politician of how we prevent it again, while we wait for a vaccine, which may never come.
So in short: is it the same strategies but better executed? Or something different?
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/st...39528249171968
How can the strategies the UK has invested in be doing so badly? Can't fully blame Serco as they're only a part of it, for same reason probably can't fully blame Dido Harding though certainly hasn't demonstrated any expertise yet. Don't even start on isolating vulnerable because there are so many problems with that it's a last resort after exhausting everything else rather than go-to as some are suggesting.Quote:
NEW: Once again Test and Trace in England has its worst week yet. Just 59.6% of close contacts of people infected were reached in the week to 14th October. Down from 63% from the previous week.
Experts say that the hit rate needs to be at least 80% to be effective.
In addition, only 15.1% of people who undertook an on site in person test received their result in 24 hours.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/st...27391336730624
Who is running Test and Trace: https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...b68d1b09c77477Quote:
Originally Posted by surge
Quote:
Originally Posted by surge
Of course outside companies are running it. The NHS hasn't got the expertise or resources to do it. Do you think it builds its own hospitals, or makes all the medicines used? Of course not. Same with Test and Trace
The Government more or less admitted defeat today didn't it? They were proclaiming that an R rate of 1.5 was a good effort. Essentially, it means that the virus is spreading exponentially.
Are you trying to say that there were no other options such as building on the existing local government infrastructure that was already in place rather than consciously building a centralised privately led privately run system that Boris Johnson today, after £12b of public money has been spent said "was helping a bit".Quote:
Originally Posted by lisvaneblue
The BMJ certainly seemed to think so when they looked at how Germany had taken the former path rather than the latter. They called it lessons learned but I guess we will need to wait for the public enquiry to see if this has any grounding in fact.
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2522
At the same time local public health services were mobilised and revitalised. In April both federal and state governments agreed to provide additional investment to strengthen local public health authorities.8 Civil servants were redeployed to public health from elsewhere and extra staff employed to support local contact tracing. Germany built on existing infrastructure and experience from the outset, unlike England, where local public health departments were overlooked in favour of a centralised system run by outsourced companies.
Later, as population restrictions were being lifted, chancellor Angela Merkel and the prime ministers of the federal states agreed that local authorities should have five contact tracers for every 20 000 citizens.9 Inexperience of new staff members was overcome by embedding them in experienced organisational structures, helping to limit the difficulties reported in England.10
My message was that the NHS is not capable of running the Test and Trace system without outside commercial assistance. Im not saying that we took the best path, as obviously we haven't.Quote:
Originally Posted by cyril evans awaydays
As usual we have a cumbersome system in UK, where health authorities and local authorities do not align geographically, where social care and medical care responsibilities and budgets sit in different pots ( except n Ireland), making it much more difficult for us to do what Germany did so effectively. Plus of course devolved governments wanting to tweak even the most straightforward plans
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-54648194
Supermarkets will be unable to sell items like clothes during the 17-day Covid firebreak lockdown in Wales.
Does anyone think this is a good idea?Quote:
Originally Posted by LeningradCowboy
Yes.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeningradCowboy
Yes. The more people are out and in contact with others, the more the virus will spread.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeningradCowboy
I think it would be a good idea if people were limited to 1 hour in there, not sure how that could be done.
I also think a 17 day lockdown is too little, too late.
Seriously? The supermarkets will be open anyway. What is the point of preventing them from selling "non-essential" items?Quote:
Originally Posted by Harry Paget Flashman
If you are going to do it, do it properly.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeningradCowboy
Last time there were plenty of middle-aged women checking out the clothes in M&S. It's a lockdown not a chance to pick up some sensible shoes.
Absolutely agree, let's do it properly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Harry Paget Flashman
It's only for 17 days, surely people have enough clothes to last them through? It's not as though they'll be going anywhere; they'd be better off buying a few good books
People touch clothes and spend longer browsing them. You don't touch the different brands of cornflakes to decide which you like best.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeningradCowboy
Maddness . What about small business that survive with diversity of products some essential some not , I do fear for our economic future .Quote:
Originally Posted by LeningradCowboy
I think you might be surprised with what folk touch in supermarkets, just watch folk testing fruits for the ripeness, or squeezing bread for freshness , looking at the longer best by dates with their hands , some just after picking thier snouts , and scratching their arse.Quote:
Originally Posted by lardy
I wonder how many wash thier hands after the toilet .
Yes, obviously people touch things, I'm not suggesting they use telekinesis.Quote:
Originally Posted by life on mars
Given that most of us believe the situation will get worse for a few months at least what is the position with regard to the replacement Nightingale hospital in Cardiff. If there isn't a replacement to the Principality Stadium facility could a potential shortage of beds be the reason why Wales has gone for their firebreak earlier than the rest of the UK? Google reveals nothing about a replacement but surely there must be one?
Isn’t there one being built at the Heath hospital?Quote:
Originally Posted by Vindec
There's probably an element of fairness to the smaller shops as well. Why should a struggling small business selling clothes have to close but a big supermarket can carry on doing so?Quote:
Originally Posted by LeningradCowboy
But has it been built? Or is Wales left exposed by the lack of facilities leading to the early decision to "firebreak?"Quote:
Originally Posted by bluesp
Yes.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeningradCowboy
Amazon will be rubbing their hands in glee. I dont think people who buy clothes in Supermarkets will shop in small independents anyway.Quote:
Originally Posted by delmbox
None of the ones in Wales were actually needed last time around, I guess they should have a better idea of what additional capacity they'll need this time too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Vindec
Re the one in the principality stadium apparently the last beds weren't due to be decommissioned until the end of October or Early November anyway, so perhaps they'll keep some capacity there.
Yes it will stop people going to supermarkets to browse stuff they don’t really need, and if you do, you can buy it online anyway.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeningradCowboy
They sure will and watch all the prices leap up like last time. Things like Lego went off the scale. Luckily my super organised wife has sorted all our kids xmas stuff already so no panic here.....Quote:
Originally Posted by ken smith
Will people be allowed to drive to Brecon to go to the butchers?
It’s not ready yet, they only started it a few weeks ago. It’s flying up though. It’s a good idea because any Covid patients can be treated in this separate unit, and hopefully, the hospital can carry on doing what it’s supposed to be doing in saving the lives of the many 1000’s who dont have coronavirus and are dying anyway.....Quote:
Originally Posted by Vindec
You can cycleQuote:
Originally Posted by Rjk
Couldnt people just drive over the bridge and do clothes shopping ? ? ?? dont tell the welsh nationalists that though :wales: welsh pounds for welsh people and all thatQuote:
Originally Posted by ken smith