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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
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Originally Posted by
rs3100
I'm a very pragmatic person and I know that there is essentially zero chance of either man being found alive, but for some strange reason I keep expecting the news to say that they've both been found and are well.
I agree, sitting on an abandoned island in a derelict old cottage just waiting....if the plane did go down in the sea, what’s the chance of finding it? It has no black box or data recorder does it? Did I read the channel is quite deep around that area aswell?
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
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Originally Posted by
goats
I agree, sitting on an abandoned island in a derelict old cottage just waiting....if the plane did go down in the sea, what’s the chance of finding it? It has no black box or data recorder does it? Did I read the channel is quite deep around that area aswell?
You do know what a black box is, do you goats?
And no, it dosent have it..
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
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Originally Posted by
Wolff
You do know what a black box is, do you goats?
And no, it dosent have it..
Not exactly no, I thought all planes had them so they can be tracked?? Enlighten me....
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
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Originally Posted by
Wolff
You do know what a black box is, do you goats?
And no, it dosent have it..
:hehe:
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
goats
I agree, sitting on an abandoned island in a derelict old cottage just waiting....if the plane did go down in the sea, what’s the chance of finding it? It has no black box or data recorder does it? Did I read the channel is quite deep around that area aswell?
Yes there's a deep underwater trench north of Alderney called Hurd's Deep at over 600ft. Just reading the pilots forum and they were suggesting the aircraft could have crashed anywhere from Guernsey to Cardiff if it was flying low to avoid ice and too low for radar detection. There are some pretty remote areas on the route such as Dartmoor and Exmoor and of course the Bristol Channel.
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
Accepting it looks the pilot had been ticking enough boxes for an incident to occur I have not spotted in this thread any real discussion on other safety aspects, I have only P2'd a Malibu a few times but dare I say there is a chance its so much like the feel of a "proper" executive aircraft rather than the overgrown Arrow i.e a single engine piston I fly they were probably both up front where you have to climb forward from the rear stepped door and having got to the incident phase were they putting the limited survival odds in their favour? Such as already wearing life jackets but then assuming the 88% chance of surviving the water landing in very good conditions which they clearly wern't would a footballer be confident of opening a pressurised rear door having clambered from the front possibly wet, in shock and with head injury in the dark and losing valuable time to exit, at least a P28 series you can wedge the door open in flight so it does not jam. Someone above said it probably was not equipped with ADSB etc because of its age, my aircraft is 40 years old and I have had mode s 330 for many years and more recently ADSB in and out and FLARM in and out and its not all just for collision avoidance its all part of a safety attitude so a tad unfair to assume all owners are the same but if you are going to become a needle in a haystack of sea getting an accurate position report out is crucial as is wearing your PLB in advance and any passenger faced with any of this would not have a clue of what to do for the best. Add all this together with the comments above and I cant see that anything was in their favour from the start and sadly they will have perished, probably within hours. The FAT one above has made safety comments elsewhere with links and they are worth a read as that aspect of planning is as important as anything else. I am not in the camp of don't fly a single piston over water, yes there is a risk and we cant all afford to fly a King Air but this is unlikely to be an engine failure and the aircraft does not know if its night or over water and they don't fail very often, the last tragic Alderney ditching I believe was a PA28 a few years back who ran out of fuel, his wife survived by clinging onto a tyre but sadly but it was a whole list of ticking error boxes in advance and as we all know flying is completely unforgiving if the human input is all wrong. Here's hoping everyone here manages to avoid the same mistakes and fly's safe as about the only good that can now come out of this one and those two poor chaps, RIP, is that a few learn something new and others like me are very clearly reminded of the risks and do everything possible to minimise them. All very sad
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
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Originally Posted by
uncle bob
From the pilots forum
That forum has some incredible opinions as to what may have happened.its 32 pages now.
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
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Originally Posted by
Superdad
That forum has some incredible opinions as to what may have happened.its 32 pages now.
If you construct a theory around the descent request and the lack of a mayday call, it narrows what could have gone wrong.
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
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Originally Posted by
Wales-Bales
If you construct a theory around the descent request and the lack of a mayday call, it narrows what could have gone wrong.
Yes it does, ranging from too much weight, ice problem, pilot error , no fuel, pilot incapacitation .... Mckay is mentioned a lot too....horrible really.
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Superdad
Yes it does, ranging from too much weight, ice problem, pilot error , no fuel, pilot incapacitation .... Mckay is mentioned a lot too....horrible really.
A few of those would have resulted in an emergency landing request, not a request to descend. If the plane had excessive icing it would have been difficult to control, and it could have been shaking quite badly. So we are down to icing and/or pilot error/decapitation, but the request to descend would suggest that icing was a factor. The lack of a mayday call could be a sign that things went out of control pretty quickly.
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
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Originally Posted by
Wales-Bales
A few of those would have resulted in an emergency landing request, not a request to descend. If the plane had excessive icing it would have been difficult to control, and it could have been shaking quite badly. So we are down to icing and/or pilot error/decapitation, but the request to descend would suggest that icing was a factor. The lack of a mayday call could be a sign that things went out of control pretty quickly.
****ing hell you think you’re an expert in everything!
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
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Originally Posted by
Croesy Blue
****ing hell you think you’re an expert in everything!
Pot, kettle, black.
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Superdad
That forum has some incredible opinions as to what may have happened.its 32 pages now.
And the more I read the more reckless the whole flight appears. All the factors point towards a flight that should not have taken place. As one poster put it" taking off isn't mandatory, landing is". Also, Sala could have flown Nantes - Paris, Paris-Cardiff by commercial flight...... and paid a few quid extra for excess baggage if he was moving to Cardiff. Icing/loss of control still seems the most likely cause given the aircraft "felt like it was going to fall apart". No (activated) transponder track makes tracing the aircraft's final movements much harder to trace.
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
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Originally Posted by
IanD
And the more I read the more reckless the whole flight appears. All the factors point towards a flight that should not have taken place. As one poster put it" taking off isn't mandatory, landing is". Also, Sala could have flown Nantes - Paris, Paris-Cardiff by commercial flight...... and paid a few quid extra for excess baggage if he was moving to Cardiff. Icing/loss of control still seems the most likely cause given the aircraft "felt like it was going to fall apart". No (activated) transponder track makes tracing the aircraft's final movements much harder to trace.
Its a fascinating read. Lots of posts relating to Dave Henderson have been deleted. He's deleted his social media accounts and denied being in Nantes at the time, although there's reports of him being there. Someone needs to speak to him.
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Wales-Bales
If you construct a theory around the descent request and the lack of a mayday call, it narrows what could have gone wrong.
The investigators shouldn't construct a theory around the facts. 1st, they need to hypothesise on all possibilities, then, evidentially disregard each hypothesis until they are left with the most likely outcome.
For example, what could be the causes (These are my hypotheses, and I was never an Air Accident Investigator, so don't have the knowledge of how flights/ aircraft work) -
1. Icing
2. Engine failure
2. Other mechanical failure
4. Pilot error
5. A combination of all or some of the above.
As they investigate and compile the facts, one by one each of the hypotheses falls. However, there will need to be significant recovery of the aircraft to assist in this, and we may never know what exactly happened. Let's not forget, there is still no conclusive proof of what happened to flight MH370, an aircraft with 2 experienced pilots on board, transponders, flight recorders and cockpit voice recorders.
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
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Originally Posted by
Butterwick Blue
Its a fascinating read. Lots of posts relating to Dave Henderson have been deleted. He's deleted his social media accounts and denied being in Nantes at the time, although there's reports of him being there. Someone needs to speak to him.
I wrote this on another thread:
As regards the second pilot it would appear from today's Daily Mail
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-10-HOURS.html
that Henderson's passport (the second pilot) was scanned at Nantes, the original flight plan filed in his name and Sala, Ibbotson and Henderson all passed through security at the same time. Henderson denies being there, refuses to answer questions and has deleted his facebook account. Furthermore his explanation is somewhat lame saying security must have made a mistake. These are factual matters that have yet to be fully explained but on the face of it must give rise to speculation.
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
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Originally Posted by
Croesy Blue
****ing hell you think you’re an expert in everything!
Haha, I'm hardly an expert dear boy. It should be blindingly obvious to anybody with half a brain and rudimentry analytical skills. Therefore, I would suggest that you work on your own shortcomings, rather than speak about that which you do not know. Cheers :thumbup:
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
One of the posts on the pilots forum got me thinking. It was something along the lines of all we know is that they dropped of radar near Cacetes lighthouse. It is 80% likely that they ditched there but the other 20% is anywhere from Northern France, Cornwall, Exmore, Dartmore or the Severn estuary.
Also ditches on water have an 88% survival rate on light aircraft.
Should the new search party follow the existing flight plan just to see if they made to land and crashed somewhere remote?
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Welshcake.
One of the posts on the pilots forum got me thinking. It was something along the lines of all we know is that they dropped of radar near Cacetes lighthouse. It is 80% likely that they ditched there but the other 20% is anywhere from Northern France, Cornwall, Exmore, Dartmore or the Severn estuary.
Also ditches on water have an 88% survival rate on light aircraft.
Should the new search party follow the existing flight plan just to see if they made to land and crashed somewhere remote?
Had they made landfall there would have been time for a mayday call. Everything points to a sudden, uncontrolable, catastrophic event for which neither pilot, nor passenger, were adequately prepared. Even if there was a successful ditching, survivability, given the conditions and probable location, is close to zero without immediate rescue.
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
IanD
Had they made landfall there would have been time for a mayday call. Everything points to a sudden, uncontrolable, catastrophic event for which neither pilot, nor passenger, were adequately prepared. Even if there was a successful ditching, survivability, given the conditions and probable location, is close to zero without immediate rescue.
The request for a descent from 5,000ft to 2,300ft is also significant, as there are specific reasons why you would do that. So it seems that whatever issues they first encountered were not resolved, or an entirely new issue developed over and above the original issue.
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
One thing I missed in all this chaos, was the same plane used to fly him over when he signed on the weekend? And who flew it if so?
Did the missing plane also fly from the UK on Monday to pick him up? I know it’s kind of irrelevant now but just wondered if the missing plane had been flying ok before the fateful trip....
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Wales-Bales
Haha, I'm hardly an expert dear boy. It should be blindingly obvious to anybody with half a brain and rudimentry analytical skills. Therefore, I would suggest that you work on your own shortcomings, rather than speak about that which you do not know. Cheers :thumbup:
You can’t get a full understanding of events by reading messageboards and newspaper accounts, aircraft investigators have years of training you can’t just jump to conclusions like that with such little actual evidence.
Yesterday you were saying a huge number of this type of plane crash now you’re saying definitely icing or pilot error. Sometimes it’s better to leave it to the experts.
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Croesy Blue
You can’t get a full understanding of events by reading messageboards and newspaper accounts, aircraft investigators have years of training you can’t just jump to conclusions like that with such little actual evidence.
Yesterday you were saying a huge number of this type of plane crash now you’re saying definitely icing or pilot error. Sometimes it’s better to leave it to the experts.
You need to try some deductive reasoning.
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Welshcake.
One of the posts on the pilots forum got me thinking. It was something along the lines of all we know is that they dropped of radar near Cacetes lighthouse. It is 80% likely that they ditched there but the other 20% is anywhere from Northern France, Cornwall, Exmore, Dartmore or the Severn estuary.
Also ditches on water have an 88% survival rate on light aircraft.
Should the new search party follow the existing flight plan just to see if they made to land and crashed somewhere remote?
We are talking about the English Channel here not the Pacific Ocean! (with its multitude of small uninhabited islands). Where is there any "remote" island between the Channel Islands and the south of England?
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
goats
One thing I missed in all this chaos, was the same plane used to fly him over when he signed on the weekend? And who flew it if so?
Did the missing plane also fly from the UK on Monday to pick him up? I know it’s kind of irrelevant now but just wondered if the missing plane had been flying ok before the fateful trip....
A twin engined exective jet flew him here on Friday. He flew back to Nantes on Saturday on the plane that is missing.
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
goats
One thing I missed in all this chaos, was the same plane used to fly him over when he signed on the weekend? And who flew it if so?
Did the missing plane also fly from the UK on Monday to pick him up? I know it’s kind of irrelevant now but just wondered if the missing plane had been flying ok before the fateful trip....
I think the club paid for a twin engine (jet) commercial air taxi. The pilot's forum had details of the flights. Therefore can't say for definite what state the missing plane was in.
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
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Originally Posted by
islandblue
A twin engined exective jet flew him here on Friday. He flew back to Nantes on Saturday on the plane that is missing.
So much has been written I may be mistaken here, but wasn't it reported that Sala commented on his having a bumpy ride on that flight back to Nantes on the Saturday? That's why I was surprised that he would use the same plane to go back to Cardiff on the Monday - unless, as I have said in an earlier post, that he was desperate not to be late for his first day in the new job.
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Croesy Blue
You can’t get a full understanding of events by reading messageboards and newspaper accounts, aircraft investigators have years of training you can’t just jump to conclusions like that with such little actual evidence.
Yesterday you were saying a huge number of this type of plane crash now you’re saying definitely icing or pilot error. Sometimes it’s better to leave it to the experts.
Questionable Piper Malibu safety record = fact
Icing present at 5,000ft = fact
Pilot requested descent to 2,300ft = fact
No maday call = fact
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
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Originally Posted by
Harry Paget Flashman
You need to try some deductive reasoning.
F.O.C
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
Post deleted by Vindec due to incorrect information
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Wales-Bales
Questionable Piper Malibu safety record = fact
Icing present at 5,000ft = fact
Pilot requested descent to 2,300ft = fact
No maday call = fact
Other issues present - unknown
There’s a good chance you’re right but you can’t say that’s the only possible causes at this stage.
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Croesy Blue
Other issues present - unknown
There’s a good chance you’re right but you can’t say that’s the only possible causes at this stage.
Correct. ALL possibilities have be considered and ruled out before you have the most likely option.
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
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Originally Posted by
Harry Monk
Correct. ALL possibilities have be considered and ruled out before you have the most likely option.
Currently know facts have ruled out a number of possibilities.
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Re: Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?
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Originally Posted by
Wales-Bales
Currently know facts have ruled out a number of possibilities.
I've yet to see that evidence.