Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

Vaccines aren’t 100% effective if that’s what you mean by work.

I can break it down for you if you like:

200 people in a test, 100 get there vaccine, 100 don’t.

Let’s say in the placebo group 50 people test positive for Covid while in the vaccine group 20 people do.

That means it has 60% efficacy.

Then out of the 50 people who tested positive in the placebo group 10 have severe symptoms but in the vaccine group only 2 have severe symptoms.

That means it’s 80% effective against severe Covid.

That’s what they mean. They don’t literally mean that one person would definitely have got severe symptoms, just by the efficacy of the vaccine you can extrapolate it.

NB- my %s aren’t correct

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

Vaccines aren’t 100% effective if that’s what you mean by work.

I can break it down for you if you like:

200 people in a test, 100 get there vaccine, 100 don’t.

Let’s say in the placebo group 50 people test positive for Covid while in the vaccine group 20 people do.

That means it has 60% efficacy.

Then out of the 50 people who tested positive in the placebo group 10 have severe symptoms but in the vaccine group only 2 have severe symptoms.

That means it’s 80% effective against severe Covid.

That’s what they mean. They don’t literally mean that one person would definitely have got severe symptoms, just by the efficacy of the vaccine you can extrapolate it.

NB- my %s aren’t correct

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How do you survive wit incorrect %s. It must keep you awake at night. :hehe:
Yes OK I see your point, perhaps it was just the way it was put.

More important is how do I upload pictures and gifs on here? I tried all ways but none work :frown:

Was there actually any change in the rules today from our esteemed leader?

Come on Wales! Perhaps the leadership we have isn't so bad after all.

https://twitter.com/GillibrandPeter/...270337541?s=19

Capt Sir Tom Moore

http://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-c...virus-12204729

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Originally Posted by Former Labour leader

Come on Wales! Perhaps the leadership we have isn't so bad after all.

https://twitter.com/GillibrandPeter/...270337541?s=19

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I always have a look at the chart on this page which shows the rates per 100k for each district. Most of the time, Merthyr and RCT have been around the top, but I’m pleased to see them both in relegation trouble this week!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...inations-today

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

I always have a look at the chart on this page which shows the rates per 100k for each district. Most of the time, Merthyr and RCT have been around the top, but I’m pleased to see them both in relegation trouble this week!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...inations-today

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No wonder you've been keeping a low profile!

Seriously, it is good news all round. Touch wood, we have been lucky down here in Pembrokeshire although even here over 3000 have sadly died.

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Originally Posted by Former Labour leader

No wonder you've been keeping a low profile!

Seriously, it is good news all round. Touch wood, we have been lucky down here in Pembrokeshire although even here over 3000 have sadly died.

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3000??

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Originally Posted by Hilts

3000??

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I think he's a bit confused there, there have been 3000 cases in Pembrokeshire, not deaths.

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Originally Posted by Rjk

I think he's a bit confused there, there have been 3000 cases in Pembrokeshire, not deaths.

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in hywel dda health board area, which is Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire and ceredigion there have been 363 deaths

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Originally Posted by Rjk

I think he's a bit confused there, there have been 3000 cases in Pembrokeshire, not deaths.

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It’s so remote with not many people (125,000) it’s hardly surprising rates are low.....mind you they are low everywhere now, swansea almost under 100 and cardiff 142, and that’s 7 days ago.....tier 1 anyone?

Sad news, I hope he gets over it;-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...herts-55881508

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Originally Posted by goats

It’s so remote with not many people (125,000) it’s hardly surprising rates are low.....mind you they are low everywhere now, swansea almost under 100 and cardiff 142, and that’s 7 days ago.....tier 1 anyone?

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Sorry, senior moment. 🤨 Cases not deaths. If there had been 3000 there'd be no fecker left.
No doubt our rurality has had a big impact although I think we were worried during summer, there were so many visitors, but in fairness they had little effect on numbers.

Having just noticed the post count I have to say that Delmbox failed miserably there! :hehe:

Infection rate continues to fall in Wales.

With hospitality looking like reopening in May at the earliest in England will Drakeford start opening Wales sooner?

Or will he follow England.?

Good news that cases are falling. It will be interesting what happens when schools go back.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/wales-coronavirus-cases-latest-deaths-19741425

Link.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/h...eaths-19741425

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Originally Posted by Hilts

Infection rate continues to fall in Wales.

With hospitality looking like reopening in May at the earliest in England will Drakeford start opening Wales sooner?

Or will he follow England.?

Good news that cases are falling. It will be interesting what happens when schools go back.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/h...eaths-19741425

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If they vaccinated teachers now then there isn’t be any disruption.....don’t know why they don’t just get on with it, you know they will in the end....probably to late as ever

Got my vaccine today - go back in April for Pt 2.
They turned the dental dept of Kings College hospital into a pop up vaccination centre and the dentists were jabbing us.

Any word on whether 70ys olds got there invitation for a jab by last firday as Gethin promised??

I haven't had mine.

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

Any word on whether 70ys olds got there invitation for a jab by last firday as Gethin promised??

I haven't had mine.

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My sister's partner got his on Friday for his injection today at the STAR centre.

My mother had to stay in bed the day after hers. Aches chills etc. Better the next day and fine 2 days later though out walking.

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Originally Posted by Hilts

My mother had to stay in bed the day after hers. Aches chills etc. Better the next day and fine 2 days later though out walking.

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I felt groggy as f**k about 36hrs after mine. Slept for about 12hrs and struggled to get out of bed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

Swansea and Merthyr now under the magic 100 case number per 100,000 people.
Most of South Wales not far behind with Newport the highest at 144. Cardiff, Vale, Bridgend etc hovering around 100 - 130.

Some areas of Midlands, London & Merseyside still very high at 450+. Miles off lockdown in those areas.

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Originally Posted by Monster munch

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

Swansea and Merthyr now under the magic 100 case number per 100,000 people.
Most of South Wales not far behind with Newport the highest at 144. Cardiff, Vale, Bridgend etc hovering around 100 - 130.

Some areas of Midlands, London & Merseyside still very high at 450+. Miles off lockdown in those areas.

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Good news. However we're now entering the 'variants' stage - every new variant that pops up [of which there will be plenty] signals a tightening/extending of restrictions. Listened to an interview on Radio 5 live around 8am. Another SAGE scientist preaching doom regarding the South African strain. At every opportunity the journalist effectively played down every single warning he gave [which in itself is highly unusual for the BBC], and he ended up retracting most of what he originally said..

Had my first jab yesterday. Only one slightly bizarre side effect - a sudden craving for bananas. I was a bit worried at first but then I read the patient information leaflet and found that the Astra Zeneca vaccine is based on a modified chimpanzee virus.

Joking aside, no after effects whatsoever.

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

Good news. However we're now entering the 'variants' stage - every new variant that pops up [of which there will be plenty] signals a tightening/extending of restrictions. Listened to an interview on Radio 5 live around 8am. Another SAGE scientist preaching doom regarding the South African strain. At every opportunity the journalist effectively played down every single warning he gave [which in itself is highly unusual for the BBC], and he ended up retracting most of what he originally said..

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There’s 100’s of variants already, this is what they do, most are harmless. They will have to adapt the vaccine every year to counter it.

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Originally Posted by goats

There’s 100’s of variants already, this is what they do, most are harmless. They will have to adapt the vaccine every year to counter it.

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Yes, I know. Point I'm making is the vaccine roll-out is creating a degree of optimism which the Authorities see as a danger. The masses may become complacent and clamour for easing of restrictions, so they're now focusing on the many variants and the new ''dangers' we face.

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

Good news. However we're now entering the 'variants' stage - every new variant that pops up [of which there will be plenty] signals a tightening/extending of restrictions. Listened to an interview on Radio 5 live around 8am. Another SAGE scientist preaching doom regarding the South African strain. At every opportunity the journalist effectively played down every single warning he gave [which in itself is highly unusual for the BBC], and he ended up retracting most of what he originally said..

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Very unusual indeed. It obviously wasn't Laura Kuenssberg doing the interview then!

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

Yes, I know. Point I'm making is the vaccine roll-out is creating a degree of optimism which the Authorities see as a danger. The masses may become complacent and clamour for easing of restrictions, so they're now focusing on the many variants and the new ''dangers' we face.

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Oh I know, any opportunity to scare the public into further submission won’t be missed by the Government....variants, South African ones....whatever next?

Just been announced that Tom Moore has died in hospital- after his fantastic efforts last year, this is someone who definitely deserves to rest in peace.

On my travels today I have heard BBC reporters on at least 3 occasions talking about the "South African" strain of the virus and saying there is concern that the vaccines won't protect against it.
And in each bulletin there has been an 'expert' on who has said, they are not concerned and are confident that the vaccines will give more than adequate protection against it.
And on the 6 O'clock news the BBC said it again, and again an expert that they have chosen (dullards) has immediately said the opposite.
But they cannot help themselves, they have to report something negative.

Seems like good news on the Oxford virus from the always negative BBC.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55910964

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

Seems like good news on the Oxford virus from the always negative BBC.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55910964

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Yeah, they reported that, that it cuts the abilty to pass the disease on in the same bulletin in which they said the other. But you can guess where the emphasis was. lol

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

Seems like good news on the Oxford virus from the always negative BBC.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55910964

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I reckon even the BBC are sick of accentuating the negativity !

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

I reckon even the BBC are sick of accentuating the negativity !

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Not sure they're sick of it, but there is less bad news for them to feast on..

Attachment 4291

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

I reckon even the BBC are sick of accentuating the negativity !

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Those who study journalism are told "There is no news like bad news and don't let the facts get in the way of a good story."

cases seem to be where they were in early September now, and dropping consistently., but we can see how quickly it can shoot back up again from that position with no restrictions ' in the winter months anyway.

they will surely have to consider schools going back after half term though.Attachment 4292

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Originally Posted by Rjk

cases seem to be where they were in early September now, and dropping consistently., but we can see how quickly it can shoot back up again from that position with no restrictions ' in the winter months anyway.

they will surely have to consider schools going back after half term though.Attachment 4292

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Schools back after half term and gradual easing of restrictions from April onwards (if cases continue to fall) makes sense to me? By that point a significant proportion of those most at risk will have been fully vaccinated and we saw low cases throughout the summer anyway without a vaccine

I'm sure we'll come up with some nonsensical way of doing it though

“They’re trying their best though”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng...navirus-crisis