Printable View
I didnt realise that some children were still home from school in Wales, my mum had said the young lad next door was still off, but i thought she had got that wrongQuote:
Originally Posted by Michael Morris
So they have been off school since Christmas :frown:
Israel herd immunity......
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56722186
'"I would say that we should not be looking for 'herd immunity' alone as a sign that we can lift all public health measures and get back to 'normal'," Dr Pitt explained. Rather we should be looking for consistently low levels of Covid-19 infection".'Quote:
Originally Posted by goats
I was always under the impression that the real reason for lockdowns were hospitalisations and not over running the health service? Now I understand that more cases led to more hospitalisations, however shouldn't this be lessened by the vaccine? Presumably we could be in a scenario whereby cases are relatively high but severe cases resulting in hospitalisations and deaths are relatively low?
I'm no virologist and am happy to be corrected, but it does feel like the rationale for lockdowns are changing a bit
I think the point is that:Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
- IF there is a link between clotting and the jab then it is very weak
- For old people: they'd be far, far more likely to die from COVID than the clotting (IF there is a link). So it is beneficial to jab them EVEN IF there is a risk of clotting.
- For young people: they are very, very unlikley to die from COVID and so IF there is a risk of clotting, then the number of young people who die from clotting would be far closer to the number that are prevented from dying of COVID because they have had the vaccine. So the benefit of having it for any one person does not so obviously outweigh the risk IF there is a link to clotting
- But overall, having young people vaccinated is a Good Thing as it may help stop the spread EVEN IF the young person having the jab would likely be asyptomatic.
That does sort of make sense to me. There is some uncertainty as regards the link; even with the link it is a no-brainer for older people; but a bit less clear cut for the younger ones so give them the other jabs (although it's not like the other ones come with no risk of some bizarre side-effect either).
Covid-19: India added to red list 'may be too late', Prof Mark Walport says.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56813025
Will the UK government please wake up. We are an island nation so ought to be ideally placed when it comes to isolating ourselves from these new variants. Between 25 March and 7 April alone, there were 3,345 arrivals from India!
The professor who deals with checking the different strains was just on World at One and despite Sarah Montague trying to make her say it was a disaster she actually said that the Indian strain is not a great cause for concern at the moment only a problem for the checkers,Quote:
Originally Posted by Gofer Blue
She said the UK has the finest gene checking equipment in the world and can find and isolate cases, and together with tracing and testing it can be controlled. no cause for panic. She actually said the Kent strain was the one of most concern.
Well, as long as the Indian strain can be controlled with the UK's 'world class test and trace system', all will be well!Quote:
Originally Posted by xsnaggle
Thank you for the reassurance.
Exactly!Quote:
Originally Posted by jon1959
you know the rules of this thread, only negative covid stories and anti government postsQuote:
Originally Posted by xsnaggle
My missus had her first vaccine today down the bay. pfiser!
She arranged 3 days off a, because it covers her birthday and b, because she was determined to be sick after it.
Now she is all upset because there's absolutely nothing wrong with her so she can't moan on whatsapp to her sisters . :hehe:
Seems Drakeford set to bring forward opening for indoor pubs and dining.
Announcement due on Friday with May 17th likely date.
Good news from an ONS and Oxford University survey, which has a very large sample but has not been peer reviewed yet, about the effectiveness of a single vaccine jab in the UK;-
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56844220
Data for Wales shows that there were 461 cases of Covid reported in the last 7 days and 127 cases admitted to hospital during the same period. Whilst the data is not directly comparable there does appear to be a high percentage of those with Covid ending up in hospital.
When compared to UK data 10.6% of all Covid admissions to hospital in the last 7 days were from Wales. Considering we make up about 5% of the UK population the figure is high.
I wonder why?
It's a cunning Drakeford plan, sending them to hospital even if they don't really need to go so he can use the figures as an excuse for not opening the pubs. :tea:Quote:
Originally Posted by lisvaneblue
Interesting thread.Quote:
TL;DR: because the UK came into the pandemic with families in a more vulnerable position, it has fared worse since the onset of crisis.
those vulnerable prior to the pandemic have suffered the most...
...all this means the lasting impact of the pandemic is going to be higher inequality.
Policy makers will need to act ahead of the next crisis.
https://twitter.com/JamesSmithRF/sta...41113229942788
It doesn't necesarily mean that all the people admitted to hospital in the period were from the 461 cases diagnose. A lot of them may have been diagnosed previously and just deteriorated to the point where they need hospital attention. and of course the fact that they are hospitalised does not mean they are all on ventilators or taking up critical care beds. Perhaps bringing them in earlier is preventing the need for that.Quote:
Originally Posted by lisvaneblue
I think it would be difficult to draw too many conclusions from that, as the numbers are getting smaller now you're likely to see more fluctuations in wales' % compared to the rest of the UK. Wales does have a slightly older, poorer population, with more underlying health problems, but it's more likely just standard variance in the data. I don't think people in Wales are being hospitalised under different criteria than England or anything like that. # Looking at the total period is obviously more stable in terms of data - and it does appear that Wales has fared better than the UK overall in terms of the proportion of deaths due to Covid - in fact if Wales had performed in line with the UK average, there would likely be an additional 1000 people to have died by now.Quote:
Originally Posted by lisvaneblue
After nearly a month with no posts on this thread, it seems Governments in the UK are being urged by the scientific community to ease back on the lifting of restrictions in the light of the arrival of the Indian variant in this country - some of the figures appearing in this article are pretty frightening;-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-third-wave-uk
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ax-covid-rules
Government only have themselves to blame on this, no way should people have been able to fly here from India and not quarantine, absolute madness, again.....will they ever learn.Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
Also reckon if we had to go into another lockdown just as we finally coming out it would be the end of this Tory government, probably see the economy finally collapse aswell.
On a more positive note....
Health minister Edward Argar told the BBC on Saturday there had been a "minor increase" in hospital presentations in Bolton - one of the areas where the Indian variant is spreading - mainly among unvaccinated 35-65 year olds.
Both those articles are basically saying the same thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
Whilst the worst case scenario is of course possible, it is by no means certain that it will happen, and the spike in cases looks large now because case levels are so low, additionally the expectation is that if it does take hold it will push the kent variant out, which means indian variant cases will not be just additional but in place of a lot of the numbers we see now. Also the situation we are in now is vastly different to the infection rate that caused the last wave. There is, so far, no reason to believe that vaccination will not prevent death and/or serious illness, and that is the main reasons for lockdown, to prevent the NHS from being over whelmed.
The articles seek to put the worst possible spin on the situation. Why do I say that? Because of the numerous use of words like 'if' 'could' 'may' 'might' 'possible' and others like them. But then that is journalism, a bad story is always better than a good one.
It’s a lefty rag too so likes to cause panic. Looking a bit more deeply into it, only people who haven’t bothered to get vaccinated are getting illQuote:
Originally Posted by xsnaggle
I see the usual suspects are refusing to accept something because, despite the quotes in the articles, they appear in the wrong paper, is this source okay for you?
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...l-ban-12307691
I assume from this post that you are attempting to politicise my comments again. For someone who claims to be largely non-political and even handed in your posts you do a remarkably good job of hiding the fact.Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
I. for one, (And as I take it you are referring to me...... basically because you make the remark "ALL the usual suspects" when only I had responded. Bit of a give-away that!) made no comment about the source of the articles only that they put the worst possible spin on the available information, because that is what journalists do, it makes a better story, and the scientists will always tell you the worst possible effect of anything, like your doctor saying /2you mustn't drink whilst taking thse" every time he gives you tablets, it's a knee jerk reaction and normally nonsense, my own doctor admitted that to me.
I prefer to look on the brighter side and hope that things work out OK. There is just as much chance of that as of the other and I don't want to be totally depressed waiting for something that may never happen. When it does, then I'll get depressed.
So again, it has nothing to do with what paper it's in, its what it says that I commented on. But whilst we're on the subject, there have been several articles in the same paper in the last week seriously attacking the failings of My Starmer and his party. I notice 'none of the usual suspects' have uttered one word of comment about those. odd isn't it? (You see I read it too)
As Labour have received reflected credit for the handling of the pandemic in Wales does that mean the Labour government in Wales will fail also or is it a case of when things go well Drakeford and Co receive reflected glory and when things go wrong it's the fault of the Tories?Quote:
Originally Posted by goats
@When have I said I’m even handed when posting on politics? I like to think I am on most subjects on here, but anyone who reads what I post on politics can’t be under the impression that I am when it comes to this subject - the difference between us is that I’m prepared to make that admission.Quote:
Originally Posted by xsnaggle
Surely the style in which someone’s quotes or a scientific report is covered is less important than what the quotes or reports say?
Two people replied to my original post not one.
The point was that my post had nothing what so ever to do with politics or the politics of the paper the articles appeared in. You put that interpretation on it for your own purposes.Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
all the scientific reports are based on, if and maybe, giving different results if different things happen, but some (Most) journalists jump on the worst case scenario and try to flog it as impending doom. They have been doing it all along with varying levels of success. It's almost like either "we told you so" if the worst case occurs or "It's only because we warned people about the looming disaster that we avoided it" if it doesn't, so which ever happens they can pat themselves on the back and feel clever.
It's a load of bollox. Why don't the print an article that states the best possible outcome? Because it doesn't sell papers.
Remember all the scare stories about the madness of opening schools again, and the actual result?
Kent variant* still currently dominant in Wales with 166 new cases this week compared to 6 new cases of currently spoken about Indian variant* but this suggest a second Indian variant* is being investigated as well: https://twitter.com/LloydCymru/statu...022275/photo/1
(*colloquial titles based on variant first identified in these locations and not necessarily where variant emerged).
If the Indian variant becomes established here and things turn out as bad as some of the modelling suggests, then Governments that allowed travel to and from India this spring deserve criticism no matter what party they represent surely? However, it appears that Wales and Northern Ireland have different rules to England and Scotland. This pieceQuote:
Originally Posted by Vindec
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56806103
From April talks of there being no direct international flights into Wales and Northern Ireland at that time and as travel into Wales from England was not allowed then I believe, there was an effective ban at that time.
Current rules are set out here;-
https://gov.wales/rules-foreign-trav...-covid-19-html
So, on this subject at least, my reading is that whether you wanted to blame Welsh and Uk Governments equally would be very much down to the individual as it seems Wales could argue that their rules were more stringent.
I wonder what she thinks now?Quote:
Originally Posted by xsnaggle
Why does someone always have to be 'to blame'? It is in every facet of life today. The blame culture.Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
I was trying to answer Vindec’s question, I didn’t know what the rules were in Wales when it came to travel to and from India, so tried to find out, but it doesn’t seem completely straightforward.Quote:
Originally Posted by xsnaggle
I think people are losing their perspective on this. However much people argue about politics and apportion blame the truth is that this virus has no respect for rules and regulations, and probably doesn't understand that it is not allowed to cross the Severn Bridge.Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
Ok Wales has no direct international flights, but that just means that Welsh people wanting to travel go to Heathrow, Manchester, Birmingham etc..travelling further in UK and mixing with more people en route.
When Wales travel restrictions were in place the traffic flow across the Severn Bridge was still very heavy, same on the A55.Life goes on and people have to travel to work and on business. And at the end of their journey they meet other people and the virus spreads.
Personally I think the UK is too small for 4 home nations to play to different rules. Governments, particularly in Wales and Scotland have made this a political blame game.
But in practice does that mean:Quote:
Originally Posted by lisvaneblue
- Places in Glasgow where average lifespan is closer to 60 than 90 are treated the same as the places in London where reverse is true? We know that things like age, health, wealth are useful predictors for worst effects of this virus.
- Central belt of Scotland which had measures put in place during winter much earlier than elsewhere has those measures delayed? We know that over half the death occurred based on spread around this time and England delayed action so much that schools went back for one day in the new year
- On the flip side Scotland was quickest to identify that children and outside were the safest. Does your one nation approach mean young children are more isolated because they still count to the rule of 6 as they did in England for far, far longer? If I remember correctly, young children had to wear masks in England at a much earlier stage too for similar reason.
Of course it makes it far simpler and easier to understand if the rules are the same across 4 nations, but I initially disagree strongly with your analysis (unless you're saying Boris would significantly change his approach to take into consideration the above?) and would be interested to know your answers to questions raised.
As I said, some people are losing their perspective on this.Quote:
Originally Posted by surge
In board terms England has 80% population of UK, Scotland 10%, Wales & NI 5% each. What England does is having the biggest impact on UK simply because of the numbers.
Getting into sub groups of the population of Glasgow is the same as getting into sub-groups of the population of Cardiff...it is interesting information, but when you are talking of a virus that has infected 4.5million of us in UK it's hardly relevant.
As you say age, health, wealth are useful predictors and we have used these Uk wide to protect for example the elderly through lockdowns, but if you are suggesting that different rules should apply based on where you live in Cardiff or Glasgow, or London that's impractical and misses the point.
This virus has no regard for who we are, what we are, or our age. All it needs is human to human contact to infect. The rules that have helped keep it at bay are the simple rules that everyone can understand...hygiene, space, stay home etc.
Glad to say the whole of UK adopted these measures. Whether one country does it ahead of another is for debate, because when to comes to results in terms of population protection in UK the outcomes are similar.
Who's fault is that in your opinion?Quote:
Originally Posted by xsnaggle
Probably the press and lawyers, one trying to sell stories the other odious lot encouraging people to start litigation for everything that goes wrong in their lives.Quote:
Originally Posted by delmbox
Of course it is never ever their own fault for anything. God forbid!!!!
Some more encouraging news regarding the Indian variant.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57134181