Re: US election prediction
Prediction.
Biden wins.
Trump barricades himself in the White House, surrounded by ‘patriot’ and white power militias whilst tweeting incessantly “Fix!” and “Fake News!”
He nukes a swing state like Pennsylvania or Michigan in retaliation for voting Biden which has now been passed as Treason by Trumps Supreme Court.
The White House siege is ended as Russian creditors turn up with bailiffs to collect $400 million.
Trump succumbs to novichok poisoning.
I’m only slightly taking the piss there. I think my first two points are certainties.
Re: US election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Heisenberg
Let's just call it as it is... LoM is thick. Not a bit thick. Thick. He's constantly wrong and when it's pointed out he either ignores it, waits for someone else to reply so he can hang onto their coat tails and agree with their post or he simply responds with something irrelevant to your post.
I'm glad he said that he won't be "bullied off here like RB" (who wasn't bullied in the slightest... although he was an annoying c**t who was obsessed with calling everyone an anti-Semite without reason, yet had a lot of problems with black people and foreigners for some reason) as I'd miss feeling smarter than at least one person on the politics board (as Gluey has disappeared too by the looks of it).
If you study the overall period from 2010 to 2015 you can clearly see Labour in the lead (see the first graph and red line ) its only at the final run in the polls where they close.
I won't dip towards your rudeness by calling people thick as I belive folk deserve respect whatever their views , I know your a tough keyboard warrior though so respect for that .
I maybe thick , but I have better qualities than your childlike name calling .
Re: US election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
life on mars
If you study the overall period from 2010 to 2015 you can clearly see Labour in the lead (see the first graph and red line ) its only at the final run in the polls where they close.
I won't dip towards your rudeness by calling people thick as I belive folk deserve respect whatever their views , I know your a tough keyboard warrior though so respect for that .
I maybe thick , but I have better qualities than your childlike name calling .
TOBW said he didn't remember Labour having a double-digit lead in the run up to the election and you provided stats from 2 years before the election... He's right and you're flapping around trying to prove that the polls were close but Labour had a lead, which is what we already knew.
A double-digit lead for Labour in the run up to the election is what you should be trying to prove if you want to disagree with TOBW. Everything you've said so far just confirms his point and makes you look like you can't grasp the reality of what's being discussed (this happens a lot in your posts).
As for "I maybe thick , but I have better qualities than your childlike name calling"... If those qualities are being a racist, misogynistic, defender of child abusers because young women are "probably asking for it" then I'm going to have to disagree with you about your "better qualities".
Being thick is probably your greatest quality from what I can gather. Also, I didn't call you thick because of your "views" - you'd understand that if you were a bit brighter :thumbup:
Re: US election prediction
Seems like PA might go trump's way, and TX might go Bidens.
Re: US election prediction
Re: US election prediction
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...iden-trump-win
This might help some of you, whatever side of the fence you're sitting?
Re: US election prediction
Apparently it is looking like a very high turnout
this historically benefits democrats as older, richer, white voters are already very likely to vote.
However, in some key states - PA and FL especially it is thought that this could benefit Trump.
Re: US election prediction
Polls will get a lot closer as they come under more scrutiny, the biggest problem if Biden doesn't get a landslide is the final postal vote tally up . I bet both sides have their legal teams ready to battle , one can only prey for a Biden landslide to avoid this becoming a drawn out and nasty moment .
Re: US election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
life on mars
Polls will get a lot closer as they come under more scrutiny, the biggest problem if Biden doesn't get a landslide is the final postal vote tally up . I bet both sides have their legal teams ready to battle , one can only prey for a Biden landslide to avoid this becoming a drawn out and nasty moment .
Can a moment be drawn out?
Re: US election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Taunton Blue Genie
Can a moment be drawn out?
Momentarily maybe
Re: US election prediction
Re: US election prediction
538 has Trump down to an 11% chance of winning now, and a lot will come down to Pennsylvania
Re: US election prediction
Could be drawn out for weeks , seem to remember Al Gore arguing for a Florida recount , 36 days later the supreme Court decided against a recount to settle in George of the Bush favour , like Trump, he lost the popular vote.
All Trump an wish for us to just contest it , Biden needs a landslide to take away the doubt .
And we know who now runs the supreme court
Re: US election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rjk
538 has Trump down to an 11% chance of winning now, and a lot will come down to Pennsylvania
As Pennsylvania is so tight I'm hoping the current riots in Philadelphia don't help the Trump campaign. On the other hand another instance of trigger happy cops could boost the black vote, so it's on a bit of a knife edge.
Another scenario with Biden winning Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin (all very possible) might mean the Pennsylvania result won't make any difference.
Re: US election prediction
If Splott goes to Trump its all over
Re: US election prediction
Is that it all done and dusted then?
Re: US election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rjk
Is that it all done and dusted then?
I think this is where it starts. The next weeks and months won't be pretty.
We're going to see a powerful man break down in front of us, and who/what is he going to take with him?
The responsibility is now with the high level republicans, McConnell particularly, to get him to accept reality.
Re: US election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rjk
Is that it all done and dusted then?
I think this could drag on for a long time. Obviously it is only fair to allow recounts where the various state laws permit this. However if after all that Biden does win and Trump was a normal rational person he would graciously accept defeat and move along. Sadly he is not and things could get very ugly. Hopefully some of those closest to him will be able to make him see sense but unfortunately there is a vast army of Trump devotees out there who happily accept that the election has been rigged - because their leader says it was. I think once a population distrusts the integrity of the democratic process then this becomes a very dangerous situation which could go far beyond the usual looting of designer goods stores (or is it only Democrats who do that sort of thing?).
IMO the whole electoral system in the USA needs revision to a one man - one vote system. Forget this electoral college nonsense!
Re: US election prediction
Nice comment by someone on the radio earlier: "USA - the only place where people protest for less democracy". :hehe:
Re: US election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gofer Blue
I think this could drag on for a long time. Obviously it is only fair to allow recounts where the various state laws permit this. However if after all that Biden does win and Trump was a normal rational person he would graciously accept defeat and move along. Sadly he is not and things could get very ugly. Hopefully some of those closest to him will be able to make him see sense but unfortunately there is a vast army of Trump devotees out there who happily accept that the election has been rigged - because their leader says it was. I think once a population distrusts the integrity of the democratic process then this becomes a very dangerous situation which could go far beyond the usual looting of designer goods stores (or is it only Democrats who do that sort of thing?).
IMO the whole electoral system in the USA needs revision to a one man - one vote system. Forget this electoral college nonsense!
It's incredible just how unfair and undemocratic the US Electoral College system really is: take this snapshot as an example:
Wyoming with a population of 550,000 people has 3 votes so that means it takes 183000 to vote in one political representative.
California, with a population of 40 million has 55 votes: there it takes 725000 people to vote in one political representative.
Looking it another way, a Californian's vote is nearly 4 times less in value than that of a voter in Wyoming. Absolutely shocking?
Re: US election prediction
there are inequalities in our own system as well