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Re: Senedd election prediction
I’m actually surprised by the amount of people I know that have voted Plaid, including a number of lifetime Labour voters. Might be too early to have an impact this election though. Regardless of where you stand, a shake up can only benefit Welsh Politics.
My local place was saying they’ve had a a good turnout with youngsters too. I had to queue around 40 minutes.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
generally
generally
:hehe:
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Bruce Parry
I’m actually surprised by the amount of people I know that have voted Plaid, including a number of lifetime Labour voters. Might be too early to have an impact this election though. Regardless of where you stand, a shake up can only benefit Welsh Politics.
My local place was saying they’ve had a a good turnout with youngsters too. I had to queue around 40 minutes.
Plaid is the obvious choice for any left leaning voter disillusioned with Labour, that's the message I'm getting from friends of mine.
I know lots of people who still vote Labour but want independence, but Sludge won't have that.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
Plaid is the obvious choice for any left leaning voter disillusioned with Labour, that's the message I'm getting from friends of mine.
I know lots of people who still vote Labour but want independence, but Sludge won't have that.
We will see tomorrow if left leaning Labour voters have deserted Labour for plaid
Or the Labour vote has gone to the tories
If people want independence then why are they voting Labour and not plaid ?
They sound like crackpots
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
We will see tomorrow if left leaning Labour voters have deserted Labour for plaid
Or the Labour vote has gone to the tories
If people want independence then why are they voting Labour and not plaid ?
They sound like crackpots
Is it not because independence isn't an issue in this election and it is possible to support independence and vote for someone other than Plaid?
I also think it's too simplistic to suggest that Labour will only lose votes to the Tories (and hence Plaid don't pick up or lose voters accordingly).
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
Is it not because independence isn't an issue in this election and it is possible to support independence and vote for someone other than Plaid?
I also think it's too simplistic to suggest that Labour will only lose votes to the Tories (and hence Plaid don't pick up or lose voters accordingly).
I think the next election might be the "independence election", especially if Scotland goes. The surge has come too late for it to really impact this one, especially considering the current conditions
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
City123
I think the next election might be the "independence election", especially if Scotland goes. The surge has come too late for it to really impact this one, especially considering the current conditions
Yes, agreed. Covid is the real issue for this election. There is also the perception by some that Plaid = nationalism, yet independence doesn't = nationalism and that it's entirely possible to be interested in independence without being a nationalist.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
Yes, agreed. Covid is the real issue for this election. There is also the perception by some that Plaid = nationalism, yet independence doesn't = nationalism and that it's entirely possible to be interested in independence without being a nationalist.
If Labour's vote holds up it will be due to Mark Drakeford and his handling of covid. If Tories make gains, as I expect them too, it will be due to Boris Johnson's vaccine bounce and Brexit. Plaid will be squeezed by these two parties and will have a disappointing election. Independence for Wales is a very long way off.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
2 questions:
1. Do you believe everyone who wants independence would only vote Plaid?
2. Do you believe everyone who votes Plaid wants independence?
Exactly. Don’t mind admitting to voting Plaid Cymru although would vote against independence.
Would like to see Wales governed by someone other than labour (not going to happen I know) as after 22 years their achievements could be listed on a fag packet
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Re: Senedd election prediction
There seems to be a large amount of labour voters turning to plaid, at least on the regional list. I can see plaid improving on their seats last time and it’s a win win for them.
As long as Plaid maintain or improve seats and number of votes which does look likely, if the Tories do well and weaken Labours stance considerably on last time then Plaids negotiation power increases with every seat that labour loses.
In regards to the independence debate a lot of Labour supporters are at least considering it now and an 825% increase in paying YesCymru members (in less than 12 months) show there is an increased appetite. The seats to watch are the pro-Indy labour candidates, if they win their seats in addition to Plaid winning seats they could make up a solid portion of the Senedd.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
We will see tomorrow if left leaning Labour voters have deserted Labour for plaid
Or the Labour vote has gone to the tories
If people want independence then why are they voting Labour and not plaid ?
They sound like crackpots
probably wanking down Lambeth
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Re: Senedd election prediction
If I had to guess which party a story like this is good news for, I'd probably say Plaid, but who knows really?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-56766948
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Wozza16
There seems to be a large amount of labour voters turning to plaid, at least on the regional list. I can see plaid improving on their seats last time and it’s a win win for them.
As long as Plaid maintain or improve seats and number of votes which does look likely, if the Tories do well and weaken Labours stance considerably on last time then Plaids negotiation power increases with every seat that labour loses.
In regards to the independence debate a lot of Labour supporters are at least considering it now and an 825% increase in paying YesCymru members (in less than 12 months) show there is an increased appetite. The seats to watch are the pro-Indy labour candidates, if they win their seats in addition to Plaid winning seats they could make up a solid portion of the Senedd.
how many members makes up this yes cymru group ?
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
kendoddsdadsdogsdead
probably wanking down Lambeth
There's a load of Kents down the BBC want sorting out
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DubaiDai
Exactly. Don’t mind admitting to voting Plaid Cymru although would vote against independence.
Would like to see Wales governed by someone other than labour (not going to happen I know) as after 22 years their achievements could be listed on a fag packet
in Wales social care costs 100 per week
in England its 700 per week
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
how many members makes up this yes cymru group ?
About 19,000.
Welsh Labour was 25,000 in 2018, this would almost certainly dropped since then. YesCymru are closing in fast, considering it was only set up 6 years ago and was 2,000 this time last year. Boris is seeing to that :wales:
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
Yes, agreed. Covid is the real issue for this election. There is also the perception by some that Plaid = nationalism, yet independence doesn't = nationalism and that it's entirely possible to be interested in independence without being a nationalist.
this is all very romantic but when those pro independence are put under scrutiny regarding how Wales is going to generate the income to be independent please don't say wind farms or Europe as the first is comedy gold and loads of us Taffs voted to leave the EU
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Wozza16
About 19,000.
Welsh Labour was 25,000 in 2018, this would almost certainly dropped since then. YesCymru are closing in fast, considering it was only set up 6 years ago and was 2,000 this time last year. Boris is seeing to that :wales:
but thats still chicken feed
Either loads of people start voting plaid or another independence party is set up and people vote for that 🤔
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Wozza16
I think it’ll end up around
Labour - 25
Plaid - 16
Tory - 14
Lib Dem - 1
Abolish - 2
Greens - 2
Chuck down your predictions, winner gets bragging rights for 5 years
Come on Plaid!
Too much welshness already....trying to give all cardiff suburbs Welsh names ffs....ridiculous. No one is going to use them
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
in Wales social care costs 100 per week
in England its 700 per week
I guess you get what you pay for, it’s a shocking state of affairs here. Only encountered it once, absolute shambles
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
but thats still chicken feed
Either loads of people start voting plaid or another independence party is set up and people vote for that
It's hardly chicken feed when it's only 6,000 (probably even less) off the membership of a party who have been engrained in Wales for decades.
I'm sure the number of voters for Plaid, Greens, Propel and Gwlad will equal a solid amount of the electorate.
Also add in the three Welsh Labour pro independence candidates to that total.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
this is all very romantic but when those pro independence are put under scrutiny regarding how Wales is going to generate the income to be independent please don't say wind farms or Europe as the first is comedy gold and loads of us Taffs voted to leave the EU
Reading your posts sounds like you are the romantic one.
I've voted Labour previously but always wanted independence. Labour aren't anywhere near left wing enough to vote for so why would you continue to flog a dead horse?
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
Plaid is the obvious choice for any left leaning voter disillusioned with Labour, that's the message I'm getting from friends of mine.
I know lots of people who still vote Labour but want independence, but Sludge won't have that.
I have been staunch pro uk and strongly against independence.
But with this useless far right govt ive done a complete u turn.
First time Ive voted in the Senedd and I did so to do my bit to make sure a Tory wasnt voted in. I didnt vote for my preferred party but the party most likely to beat a Tory and it wasnt Plaid.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
goats
I guess you get what you pay for, it’s a shocking state of affairs here. Only encountered it once, absolute shambles
No its shit in England too
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Harry Paget Flashman
Reading your posts sounds like you are the romantic one.
I've voted Labour previously but always wanted independence. Labour aren't anywhere near left wing enough to vote for so why would you continue to flog a dead horse?
I want a new democratic left of centre party, its the only way of keeping out the tories
If you want independence but vote Labour at least you are not wasting your time on plaid so everyone is a winner
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
I want a new democratic left of centre party, its the only way of keeping out the tories
If you want independence but vote Labour at least you are not wasting your time on plaid so everyone is a winner
You have one currently in Wales but don't like Drakeford because he's not seen as a strong leader. He's stepping down soon anyway.
Labour's official position towards union (and the Lib Dems and the Greens) is shifting because of public opinion. This wouldn't happen if there wasn't a growing indy-curious position.
Tories unofficial position is shifting in opposite direction but more they act to act devolution the more people become indy-curious, which subsequently scares voters in England into voting Tory which suits them fine.
If you want to see the UK survive you (one) should vote Labour, Lib Dems or Green; if you (one) wants to see independence should vote SNP or Plaid; and if you (one) wants to see UK become England then should vote Tories, Abolish or UKIP.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
surge
You have one currently in Wales but don't like Drakeford because he's not seen as a strong leader. He's stepping down soon anyway.
Labour's official position towards union (and the Lib Dems and the Greens) is shifting because of public opinion. This wouldn't happen if there wasn't a growing indy-curious position.
Tories unofficial position is shifting in opposite direction but more they act to act devolution the more people become indy-curious, which subsequently scares voters in England into voting Tory which suits them fine.
If you want to see the UK survive you (one) should vote Labour, Lib Dems or Green; if you (one) wants to see independence should vote SNP or Plaid; and if you (one) wants to see UK become England then should vote Tories, Abolish or UKIP.
clearly voting plaid is what people should do if they want independence
But less people in Wales vote plaid than tory
Is it just me ? Feck brexit , feck covid , if I was wanting independence I would vote plaid
But I don't and nor does most of Wales
They have had their chance , if they do well in the polls fair play to them but I can't see an independent Wales come 10pm tonight
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
this is all very romantic but when those pro independence are put under scrutiny regarding how Wales is going to generate the income to be independent please don't say wind farms or Europe as the first is comedy gold and loads of us Taffs voted to leave the EU
That's got absolutely nothing to do with my comment.
I'll repeat that there are Labour voters who are interested in independence. I joined the party as a member when Corbyn got elected as leader. I have since rescinded my membership as a result of the party's shift away from socialism and its increasingly pro Brexit stance.
I know of party members and Labour supporters up here who have left to vote Plaid based solely on Plaid being more socialist than Labour, that being the biggest issue. I know of friends who have done the same thing. I know of Labour party members and voters who want independence but don't regard themselves as nationalists. I'm sure I've read about Labour MPs or AMs supporting Welsh Independence, while last year a YouGov poll suggested over half of Labour voters in the 2019 general election support independence.
Like I said, this election isn't about independence. UKIP wanted independence from the EU but they never polled well in a general election as there were always other issues that people voted on. If you accept that UKIP's polling in elections was not representative of the UK's feelings towards Brexit, you have to acknowledge the same about Plaid's polling not being representative of Wales's feelings towards independence. Now, I'm not for a second suggesting that Wales is as interested in independence as the UK was about Brexit, I'll make that very clear. But claiming that Plaid's vote is representative of how Wales feels about independence is utter horseshit. We simply don't know the real levels of interest, other than they have grown over the last few years if opinion polls are to be believed, particularly with the under 50s.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
clearly voting plaid is what people should do if they want independence
But less people in Wales vote plaid than tory
Is it just me ? Feck brexit , feck covid , if I was wanting independence I would vote plaid
But I don't and nor does most of Wales
They have had their chance , if they do well in the polls fair play to them but I can't see an independent Wales come 10pm tonight
But people voting Labour and all other parties in Wales are also becoming indy-curious.
We have a Westminster election before a Senedd one now and most likely result is a further Tory majority which seeks to attack devolution and attack Union - if that happens do you really think indy-curious people voting Labour/Lib Dem/Greens etc. this time will side with them again? They'll go to the party promising referendum on independence.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
surge
You have one currently in Wales but don't like Drakeford because he's not seen as a strong leader. He's stepping down soon anyway.
Labour's official position towards union (and the Lib Dems and the Greens) is shifting because of public opinion. This wouldn't happen if there wasn't a growing indy-curious position.
Tories unofficial position is shifting in opposite direction but more they act to act devolution the more people become indy-curious, which subsequently scares voters in England into voting Tory which suits them fine.
If you want to see the UK survive you (one) should vote Labour, Lib Dems or Green; if you (one) wants to see independence should vote SNP or Plaid; and if you (one) wants to see UK become England then should vote Tories, Abolish or UKIP.
It's strange with Drakeford. he seems very unpopular on here, but so much that I've heard and read about the election has said that he's been front and centre of Labour's campaign because he's seen as a "safe pair of hands".
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
the other bob wilson
It's strange with Drakeford. he seems very unpopular on here, but so much that I've heard and read about the election has said that he's been front and centre of Labour's campaign because he's seen as a "safe pair of hands".
He's a cautious, unsexy nerd. We live in a time (have we always?) where a strong leader is usually preferred but perhaps covid is the one occasion where caution and nerdish behaviour is admired.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
the other bob wilson
It's strange with Drakeford. he seems very unpopular on here, but so much that I've heard and read about the election has said that he's been front and centre of Labour's campaign because he's seen as a "safe pair of hands".
He's unpopular as he's the bearer of bad news.
He's the one to shut down pubs, open later than England, close earlier than England.
As for Labour there's somethings that they have done with transport I whole heartedly agree with (apart from the M4) but that's about it.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
WJ99mobile
He's unpopular as he's the bearer of bad news.
PLUS THE BARSTEWARD TAXED OUR BOOZE
He's the one to shut down pubs, open later than England, close earlier than England.
As for Labour there's somethings that they have done with transport I whole heartedly agree with (apart from the M4) but that's about it.
It should be our choice if we wanna drink, not some teetotal t wat down the bay.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
WJ99mobile
He's unpopular as he's the bearer of bad news.
He's the one to shut down pubs, open later than England, close earlier than England.
As for Labour there's somethings that they have done with transport I whole heartedly agree with (apart from the M4) but that's about it.
But apart from last summer, his bad news has been closer to what's been needed throughout the pandemic. Boris has been acting in a cautious manner since 2nd week of January 2021 because he wants to escape comments about showing too much risk during last winter.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
That's got absolutely nothing to do with my comment.
I'll repeat that there are Labour voters who are interested in independence. I joined the party as a member when Corbyn got elected as leader. I have since rescinded my membership as a result of the party's shift away from socialism and its increasingly pro Brexit stance.
I know of party members and Labour supporters up here who have left to vote Plaid based solely on Plaid being more socialist than Labour, that being the biggest issue. I know of friends who have done the same thing. I know of Labour party members and voters who want independence but don't regard themselves as nationalists. I'm sure I've read about Labour MPs or AMs supporting Welsh Independence, while last year a YouGov poll suggested over half of Labour voters in the 2019 general election support independence.
Like I said, this election isn't about independence. UKIP wanted independence from the EU but they never polled well in a general election as there were always other issues that people voted on. If you accept that UKIP's polling in elections was not representative of the UK's feelings towards Brexit, you have to acknowledge the same about Plaid's polling not being representative of Wales's feelings towards independence. Now, I'm not for a second suggesting that Wales is as interested in independence as the UK was about Brexit, I'll make that very clear. But claiming that Plaid's vote is representative of how Wales feels about independence is utter horseshit. We simply don't know the real levels of interest, other than they have grown over the last few years if opinion polls are to be believed, particularly with the under 50s.
Don't bother, Sludge clearly hates Plaid and won't be persuaded
Its a shame because based on Sludge's posts Plaid are probably the closest party to him ideologically. Labour have moved right since 2019 and seem to be using the Hartlepool result to justify continuing to do so
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
That's got absolutely nothing to do with my comment.
I'll repeat that there are Labour voters who are interested in independence. I joined the party as a member when Corbyn got elected as leader. I have since rescinded my membership as a result of the party's shift away from socialism and its increasingly pro Brexit stance.
I know of party members and Labour supporters up here who have left to vote Plaid based solely on Plaid being more socialist than Labour, that being the biggest issue. I know of friends who have done the same thing. I know of Labour party members and voters who want independence but don't regard themselves as nationalists. I'm sure I've read about Labour MPs or AMs supporting Welsh Independence, while last year a YouGov poll suggested over half of Labour voters in the 2019 general election support independence.
Like I said, this election isn't about independence. UKIP wanted independence from the EU but they never polled well in a general election as there were always other issues that people voted on. If you accept that UKIP's polling in elections was not representative of the UK's feelings towards Brexit, you have to acknowledge the same about Plaid's polling not being representative of Wales's feelings towards independence. Now, I'm not for a second suggesting that Wales is as interested in independence as the UK was about Brexit, I'll make that very clear. But claiming that Plaid's vote is representative of how Wales feels about independence is utter horseshit. We simply don't know the real levels of interest, other than they have grown over the last few years if opinion polls are to be believed, particularly with the under 50s.
cobblers
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
City123
Don't bother, Sludge clearly hates Plaid and won't be persuaded
dreamers
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Seems to have been a very high turnout this time around, in wales at least.
Doesn't seem to have been the case in England
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Re: Senedd election prediction
One of the things that the polls won’t have included is the effect that queuing to vote might have had which might be crucial in some constituencies. A Labour voter faced with an hour queue May we’ll have given up thinking the seat was safe anyway, whereas others may have waited to vote.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Btw, one of the Abolish lot apparently used to be pastor of the cultist, evangelical church in Cwmbran. He's literally been preying on vulnerable people for the past decade and could end up.in the Senedd.