-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
LordKenwyne
I've just read that Francois Fillon is pro russia and assad. Not sure about the EU.
Juppe is the one the left is voting for.
So if its Fillon v Pen then Putin wins.
Fillon has a welsh wife as well. A welsh first lady of france :wales:
http://www.thelocal.fr/20161121/coul...ext-first-lady
I never knew that - cool info. :thumbup:
On further investigation it transpires that they were married near Abergavenny: "They married in 1980 at the 17th Century church of St Bartholomew in Llanover, near Abergavenny, for which Mrs Fillon needed a special licence because she was already living in France."
:-)
-
1 Attachment(s)
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Barry Dragon
Predictions use historic figures, plus your gut feeling. They are not based on what will happen in the future. Its far too complex to try and do that. So they use what has happened previously, this can allow you to accurately predict what will happen for the same scenario. Only this had not happened previously, so you cannot use any predictions for what will happen accurately. Any prediction is simply ones gut feeling.
All the economists who got it so wrong prove that. Yes not much has actually happened, but one of the cores of their predictions was a massive loss in confidence, and if that was going to happen it would have. There was an initial blip as people held their breath, but the economy has continued to improve since brexit. And if anything confidence has improved in the british economy since brexit.
If the people who want Brexit could give some idea of what they want it to look like then economists could begin trying to forecast what our future may look like.
Pound vs Dollar
Attachment 1062
Now maybe I am just being negative...but I think that shows a pretty significant loss of confidence and not much of a recovery (not sure where you could possibly get 'if anything confidence has improved in the British economy since Brexit'...).
A massive drop in the value of the pound was predicted and a massive drop in the value of the pound has occurred.
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Cartman
If the people who want Brexit could give some idea of what they want it to look like then economists could begin trying to forecast what our future may look like.
Pound vs Dollar
Attachment 1062
Now maybe I am just being negative...but I think that shows a pretty significant loss of confidence and not much of a recovery (not sure where you could possibly get 'if anything confidence has improved in the British economy since Brexit'...).
A massive drop in the value of the pound was predicted and a massive drop in the value of the pound has occurred.
Why hasn't the dollar crashed? Trump is ripping up trade deals left, right and centre, and he also want's to spend a trillion+ dollars and roads and stuff.
I'd hazard a guess and say the EU project is very important to some people, and they will do anything to try and stop it going down the shitter.
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Wales-Bales
Why hasn't the dollar crashed? Trump is ripping up trade deals left, right and centre, and he also want's to spend a trillion+ dollars and roads and stuff.
I'd hazard a guess and say the EU project is very important to some people, and they will do anything to try and stop it going down the shitter.
I guess whilst Trump's presidency makes life quite uncertain for minority groups, businesses may do well out of his penchant for less and less regulation.
In terms of infrastructure projects, most economists agree that it will be good for the economy, should have happened here but the public bought the fallacy that you could compare the finances of a country with the finances of a household.
In short, America will probably become more unequal under the Trump but I can't see any reason why confidence in the economy should plummet.
The UK has no plan, never had a plan and that is reflected in the outright lack of confidence in our currency. The simple fact is that us leaving the EU is probably bad for both of us, their currency hasn't been hit so hard because their challenges are obvious, ours depend on lots of things that no one knows yet.
-
1 Attachment(s)
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Cartman
If the people who want Brexit could give some idea of what they want it to look like then economists could begin trying to forecast what our future may look like.
Pound vs Dollar
Attachment 1062
Now maybe I am just being negative...but I think that shows a pretty significant loss of confidence and not much of a recovery (not sure where you could possibly get 'if anything confidence has improved in the British economy since Brexit'...).
A massive drop in the value of the pound was predicted and a massive drop in the value of the pound has occurred.
A weak currency can be great for the economy so think you probably are being pretty negative.
Attachment 1064
It all depends on what way you want to look at it.
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Cartman
I guess whilst Trump's presidency makes life quite uncertain for minority groups, businesses may do well out of his penchant for less and less regulation.
In terms of infrastructure projects, most economists agree that it will be good for the economy, should have happened here but the public bought the fallacy that you could compare the finances of a country with the finances of a household.
In short, America will probably become more unequal under the Trump but I can't see any reason why confidence in the economy should plummet.
The UK has no plan, never had a plan and that is reflected in the outright lack of confidence in our currency. The simple fact is that us leaving the EU is probably bad for both of us, their currency hasn't been hit so hard because their challenges are obvious, ours depend on lots of things that no one knows yet.
Easy solution - follow what America does and hang onto Trump's coat tails. Don't forget we've also got a bad assed right-wing government in power who could be a lot meaner than Trump :biggrin:
And seriously, the elites have got over 60 years invested into this EU project, and a hell of a lot of money. Also their end game is (was?) very near.
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TruBlue
A weak currency can be great for the economy so think you probably are being pretty negative.
Attachment 1064
It all depends on what way you want to look at it.
75% of revenue from FTSE100 companies comes from abroad so it is a pretty darn poor measure of the success of/confidence in the UK economy. The FTSE250 is a slightly better measure as only 50% of revenue comes from abroad, after diving up and down for a couple of months it is at the same levels as this time last year. Also if you break it down industry to industry, the differences are even more stark.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses a lamp post, for support rather than illumination". The FTSE being illegitimately wheeled out by the brexit gang is a great example of this in action.
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TruBlue
A weak currency can be great for the economy so think you probably are being pretty negative.
Attachment 1064
It all depends on what way you want to look at it.
But that chart is measured in £ which has weakened over the course of it. It doesn't show any significant rise in real value of the index, just that the units in are measuring it in have become smaller.
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Cartman
75% of revenue from FTSE100 companies comes from abroad so it is a pretty darn poor measure of the success of/confidence in the UK economy. The FTSE250 is a slightly better measure as only 50% of revenue comes from abroad, after diving up and down for a couple of months it is at the same levels as this time last year. Also if you break it down industry to industry, the differences are even more stark.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses a lamp post, for support rather than illumination". The FTSE being illegitimately wheeled out by the brexit gang is a great example of this in action.
I'm not sure I follow your first sentence? I'm no economist but external investment seems like a good thing for the economy for me.
As for the drunken stats comment, I'd agree it was merely pointing out how you wish to look at it, but a weak pound doesn't automatically mean bad news for the economy as a drunken man pointed out. :biggrin:
-
2 Attachment(s)
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TruBlue
I'm not sure I follow your first sentence? I'm no economist but external investment seems like a good thing for the economy for me.
As for the drunken stats comment, I'd agree it was merely pointing out how you wish to look at it, but a weak pound doesn't automatically mean bad news for the economy as a drunken man pointed out. :biggrin:
Their revenue is worth more if the pound is weak, the value of their company goes up if their revenue is worth more.
The FTSE100 rising is a predictable symptom of a weak pound and not a signal of confidence.
As for a weak currency being good. Maybe I am being negative again but it isn't a club I would join through choice...
Attachment 1069
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Cartman
Their revenue is worth more if the pound is weak, the value of their company goes up if their revenue is worth more.
The FTSE100 rising is a predictable symptom of a weak pound and not a signal of confidence.
As for a weak currency being good. Maybe I am being negative again but it isn't a club I would join through choice...
Attachment 1069
That drunken man only apply to one side of the stats?
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TruBlue
That drunken man only apply to one side of the stats?
The point I am making is pretty obvious, the kind of lack of confidence in our currency is reserved for some really really weak economies.
I hadn't drawn any conclusions before seeing the evidence.
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Cartman
The point I am making is pretty obvious, the kind of lack of confidence in our currency is reserved for some really really weak economies.
I hadn't drawn any conclusions before seeing the evidence.
Yes I get it, your stats are good, any others are bad......
Do as I say, not as I do.........
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Cartman
The point I am making is pretty obvious, the kind of lack of confidence in our currency is reserved for some really really weak economies.
I hadn't drawn any conclusions before seeing the evidence.
the pound has been rising steadily from a low point of 1.12 to 1.18
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Cartman
This seems like a list of countries who have upset George Soros and friends :biggrin:
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Packerman
the pound has been rising steadily from a low point of 1.12 to 1.18
I couldn't really see why the pound took a hit vs the euro in the first place. Us leaving is also bad news for them in terms of stability. The euro also has to deal with the real possibility of a le pen election win.
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TruBlue
Yes I get it, your stats are good, any others are bad......
Do as I say, not as I do.........
Can you explain how a graph showing the weakest currencies is being disingenuous in anyway, you were free to draw your own conclusions. You said a weak currency was potentially a good thing so the burden of proof is on you, you definitely failed there with the FTSE graph.
One day you will get over yourself and stop trying to pick a fight with me in every thread, especially when you are so woefully prepared.
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Cartman
I couldn't really see why the pound took a hit vs the euro in the first place. Us leaving is also bad news for them in terms of stability. The euro also has to deal with the real possibility of a le pen election win.
The EU are the good guys :thumbup: The Euro has to remain strong, in order to encourage the Brexiteers to flip during a referendum rerun :biggrin:
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Francois Fillon was 7/2 on Wiliam Hill when I was on about it above.
I was considering putting 10 quid on him.
Now he is 2/5!.
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
LordKenwyne
Francois Fillon was 7/2 on Wiliam Hill when I was on about it above.
I was considering putting 10 quid on him.
Now he is 2/5!.
What are the odds on Le Pen? I'd stick a cheeky tenner on her :biggrin:
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Wales-Bales
What are the odds on Le Pen? I'd stick a cheeky tenner on her :biggrin:
About 5/2 across the board.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/...next-president
The drop down menu under "match select" gives the odds for the austrian election as well.
The far right guy is odds on.
And so is a no vote in Italy. Meaning if Renzi is a man of his word he'll resign....
Absolutely no idea what the swedish one is about!.
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
They must have been dancing on the streets of Aberystwyth last night. A shame Fillon's wife is not called Ffion.
He's a big fan of Thatcher apparently. A Thatcherite or a watered down fascist on the right. Nice choice.
Think the left in France are fecked. Will be interesting to see if Macron's En Marche! centrist project has any appeal. He's a former Rothschild banker so Splott David will be cheering him on.
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
LordKenwyne
About 5/2 across the board.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/...next-president
The drop down menu under "match select" gives the odds for the austrian election as well.
The far right guy is odds on.
And so is a no vote in Italy. Meaning if Renzi is a man of his word he'll resign....
Absolutely no idea what the swedish one is about!.
At this rate we won't need to do a Brexit, there will be nothing left to exit!
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Cartman
The point I am making is pretty obvious, the kind of lack of confidence in our currency is reserved for some really really weak economies.
I hadn't drawn any conclusions before seeing the evidence.
When you take into account that half of that fall was done on purpose by BoE then it is not so bad. BoE clearly see a weaker pound as a positive to get through Brexit. So where does that leave us. Is a weaker pound bad or good? It certainly makes us more competitive around the world, and that is the reasoning behind the BoE weakening the currency by arguably unnecessarily reducing interest rates.
I know from my point of view that my goods purchased from China in USD have gone up. But so have my exports. Thanks to the weaker, more competitive pound my business is now a net exporter. Sales abroad are up 100%. And now make around 40% of my sales.
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Barry Dragon
When you take into account that half of that fall was done on purpose by BoE then it is not so bad. BoE clearly see a weaker pound as a positive to get through Brexit. So where does that leave us. Is a weaker pound bad or good? It certainly makes us more competitive around the world, and that is the reasoning behind the BoE weakening the currency by arguably unnecessarily reducing interest rates.
I know from my point of view that my goods purchased from China in USD have gone up. But so have my exports. Thanks to the weaker, more competitive pound my business is now a net exporter. Sales abroad are up 100%. And now make around 40% of my sales.
Out of interest, how many of your sales abroad are within the EU?
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
lardy
Out of interest, how many of your sales abroad are within the EU?
The proportion has gone down the last few weeks as the Euro has significantly weakened recently. Heading for 1:1 with US Dollar if you believe the reports.
Done some basic figures on this weekends sales. Euro sales account for 50% of export sales, USD 40%. Total exports accounted for 45% of my weekend sales.
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Barry Dragon
The proportion has gone down the last few weeks as the Euro has significantly weakened recently. Heading for 1:1 with US Dollar if you believe the reports.
Done some basic figures on this weekends sales. Euro sales account for 50% of export sales, USD 40%. Total exports accounted for 45% of my weekend sales.
What are you selling?
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Wales-Bales
What are you selling?
Top secret.
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Barry Dragon
Top secret.
It sounds ... well dodgy :biggrin:
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Barry Dragon
Top secret.
Its not grandmother's is it ? ? ? /
as i have a buyer waiting
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
blue matt
Its not grandmother's is it ? ? ? /
as i have a buyer waiting
Your poor suffering neighbour...
He'll never believe its an extra large turkey FFS.
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Vimana.
Your poor suffering neighbour...
He'll never believe its an extra large turkey FFS.
its not him, i have taken his money for this month :thumbup:
Dont tell anyone, but its Wales-Bales, he has expressed a interest, just need to find a grandmother now
-
Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not
Quote:
Originally Posted by
blue matt
Its not grandmother's is it ? ? ? /
as i have a buyer waiting
I'm not a buyer, it's a trade :biggrin:
