Operation Yellowhammer

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

I don't know how anyone can actually read it and say no cause for panic. Either he hasn't read it or he can't comprehend how bad it will be.

One of the lines in there says "Low income families will be disproportionally affected by food price rises".

Yet again the poorest members of society are going to be ****ed by the richest. A lot of people who use this board will be affected by that too. No deal brexit is a disgrace.

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Low income groups are disproportionately affected by any change to the price of food and fuel and well everything.

They are already disproportionately affected almost daily by one thing or another, most people are too busy to notice or care most days though until it's mentioned with regards to brexit.

That line doesn't mean they are going to starve to death after a week.

Presumably the vast majority on here will vote for Jeremy Corbyn. After all that is how their parents voted so they will blindly follow suit as do many in the country. Lets examine Labour's stance:

Corbyn first said he would honour the referendum in his manifesto; then he stated he would seek a new deal and put it to the people in a second referendum; then Labour state they will campaign for a General Election after which they will negotiate a better deal if elected and then vote against their own deal in a second referendum. Then yesterday Tom Watson's priority is to get a second referendum before an Election. How Labour propose selling this jumbled mess to the public on the doorstep is beyond comprehension. On the other hand we have the Liberals who will campaign to Remain while calling for a second Referendum the result of which they will ignore if they get into power if the voters vote again to leave. It's a clear message but equally daft as Labour's policy. Meanwhile Johnson is doing all he can to leave with no deal while pretending to negotiate revised and better deal with the EU. All this says to me is that all political parties are as bad as each other and are all playing political games to suit their purposes prior to an inevitable election.

As for Yellowhammer that is supposedly the worst case scenario to enable civil servants to concentrate on the areas of most importance if there is no deal. Many of the commentators have accepted hook line and sinker that Yellowhammer is a document of fact when clearly it is not. It's a planning document to deal with the issues raised. Some of the comments on here are bordering on the hysterical which is understandable as the politicians are ramping up project fear to appeal to prospective voters in the next Election.

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Originally Posted by Trigger

Low income groups are disproportionately affected by any change to the price of food and fuel and well everything.

They are already disproportionately affected almost daily by one thing or another, most people are too busy to notice or care most days though until it's mentioned with regards to brexit.

That line doesn't mean they are going to starve to death after a week.

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Ok well No Deal brexit sounds a good idea then, thanks for clearing it up.

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Originally Posted by Vindec

As for Yellowhammer that is supposedly the worst case scenario to enable civil servants to concentrate on the areas of most importance if there is no deal. Many of the commentators have accepted hook line and sinker that Yellowhammer is a document of fact when clearly it is not. It's a planning document to deal with the issues raised. Some of the comments on here are bordering on the hysterical which is understandable as the politicians are ramping up project fear to appeal to prospective voters in the next Election.

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I don't see what Jeremy Corbyn has to do with this? I wouldn't vote for Labour at all because their view on Brexit has never been clear enough for me.

Labour want a general election. Labour do not want no deal which is why they won't agree to an election because then no deal will become the default on Oct 31st.

And if you believe this is the worst case scenario you haven't paid enough attention. This is the base case and a redacted one at that.

Why do you want a no deal brexit? What do you think the benefits of it are?

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Originally Posted by Gofer Blue

Should have added that this thread should be moved to the Politics forum.

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Better that it doesn't IMO. It's always the death of a thread when it's moved. There's a much wider range of contributors here.

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

I don't see what Jeremy Corbyn has to do with this? I wouldn't vote for Labour at all because their view on Brexit has never been clear enough for me.

Labour want a general election. Labour do not want no deal which is why they won't agree to an election because then no deal will become the default on Oct 31st.

And if you believe this is the worst case scenario you haven't paid enough attention. This is the base case and a redacted one at that.

Why do you want a no deal brexit? What do you think the benefits of it are?

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I suggest you pay attention. Where does the document state it is a base case? The document is headed "HMG Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions".

Where did I say I wanted a no deal Brexit?

It is the base case. It’s the same one that was leaked 3 months ago.

Listen to anyone in the know, yellowhammer is the base case. Black Swan is the worst case, no one has seen this yet.

Here is is being reported in the pro Brexit newspaper The Times - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/this-is-not-project-fear-its-what-we-face-after-no-deal-brexit-3p2cdq9zd

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Originally Posted by rudy gestede

:hehe: it’s the blitz spirit lads!

This is the base case, if you’re happy for people to die for the U.K. to be in a situation which so far has zero discernable benefits fair enough.

This is what will happen if we get no deal. There is no panicking about it and it’s why it’s important that we get a deal.

No one at the time voted for a no deal and anyone saying they did is a liar.

But hey at least hedge funds directly related to boris johnson have placed £8.3bn on a no deal Brexit happening.

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I voted for no deal if you want to put it that way, and I'm not a liar.
Any deal or otherwise was a thing which would obviously follow Brexit ,but it was not on the ballot paper and it wasn't an issue.

It's still not, except as another trick by the elite minority to stop Brexit.

It's about national sovereignty and history, including the wartime sacrifices which you make fun of there. However, the whole EU project is faulted for many reasons and the British public have voted to leave it, so in the end democracy will prevail.

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Originally Posted by Vindec

I suggest you pay attention. Where does the document state it is a base case? The document is headed "HMG Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions".

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It was in August 2019 that the Sunday Times*published a full exposé*of the contents of the dossier including warnings about surging food prices and shortage of fuel and medical supplies. The document has been edited since the Sunday Times leak to say “worst case planning assumptions” where previously it said “base scenario”.

https://www.ft.com/content/dc8053e4-...d-ab8ec6435630

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Originally Posted by RonnieBird

It's still not, except as another trick by the elite minority to stop Brexit.

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Dominic Cummings lives in a £1.6m London townhouse, with a tapestry room; while he and his mates have put short options of £11bn on a no deal brexit but yes, everyone else is the elite. :hehe:

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Originally Posted by Vindec

As for Yellowhammer that is supposedly the worst case scenario to enable civil servants to concentrate on the areas of most importance if there is no deal.

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As a point of interest, I'm a civil servant with responsibility for helping to shape policy in several areas of the industry I serve. Brexit (either with a deal or without one) will have an enormous and very direct impact on tens of thousands of British citizens who are employed in my industry.

Do you know how much guidance me and my department have had from the government and the senior civil service in relation to Brexit so far? No? Well, I'll tell you - none. Nothing at all. Absolute zero.

Tens of thousands of British workers in my industry will be directly affected from 1st November onwards should the UK crash out of the EU on 31st October with no deal, and yet there's currently absolutely nothing I can tell them as regards how they are going to be treated or what they need to do in a month and a half's time.

That's not Project Fear. That's Project Reality under the current government. It's a complete shambles.

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Originally Posted by RonnieBird

I voted for no deal if you want to put it that way, and I'm not a liar.

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You did nothing of the sort. It wasn't an option on the ballot paper.

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Originally Posted by RonnieBird

I voted for no deal if you want to put it that way, and I'm not a liar.
Any deal or otherwise was a thing which would obviously follow Brexit ,but it was not on the ballot paper and it wasn't an issue.

It's still not, except as another trick by the elite minority to stop Brexit.

It's about national sovereignty and history, including the wartime sacrifices which you make fun of there. However, the whole EU project is faulted for many reasons and the British public have voted to leave it, so in the end democracy will prevail.

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‘Elite minority’ whilst Johnson, Cummings, Rees Mogg are all man of the people.

When I hear the phrase ‘elite’ being passed around I know there is no more logical argument left.

Elite minority ffs, Dominic Cummings's wife's family own a ****ing castle.

No Deal brexit is what the elites want, anyone saying otherwise has bought into the propaganda.

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Originally Posted by RonnieBird

I voted for no deal if you want to put it that way, and I'm not a liar.
Any deal or otherwise was a thing which would obviously follow Brexit ,but it was not on the ballot paper and it wasn't an issue.

It's still not, except as another trick by the elite minority to stop Brexit.

It's about national sovereignty and history, including the wartime sacrifices which you make fun of there. However, the whole EU project is faulted for many reasons and the British public have voted to leave it, so in the end democracy will prevail.

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This couldn't be more wrong.

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

You did nothing of the sort. It wasn't an option on the ballot paper.

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If you don’t have ronniebird and walesbales on ignore you should. Makes every thread much more bareable if you ignore him and the complete bollocks he posts.

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Originally Posted by RonnieBird

I voted for no deal if you want to put it that way, and I'm not a liar.
Any deal or otherwise was a thing which would obviously follow Brexit ,but it was not on the ballot paper and it wasn't an issue.

It's still not, except as another trick by the elite minority to stop Brexit.

It's about national sovereignty and history, including the wartime sacrifices which you make fun of there. However, the whole EU project is faulted for many reasons and the British public have voted to leave it, so in the end democracy will prevail.

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You didn't vote for no deal. The leave campaigns were other based on us getting a nice deal with no trouble (Norway, Canada, we had many to choose from).

Anyone who says "I'm not a liar" is a liar, I'm afraid.

https://twitter.com/sjharley/status/...357158913?s=19

Funny what you get looking through people's post histories too;

Here is Wales-bales calling corby a brexiteer - http://www.ccmb.co.uk/showthread.php...age2&styleid=2

Here he is saying we need access to the single market - http://www.ccmb.co.uk/showthread.php...l-Brexit/page3

I don't get why people lie on here about things, we can all see every post ever made.

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

Funny what you get looking through people's post histories too;

Here is Wales-bales calling corby a brexiteer - http://www.ccmb.co.uk/showthread.php...age2&styleid=2

Here he is saying we need access to the single market - http://www.ccmb.co.uk/showthread.php...l-Brexit/page3

I don't get why people lie on here about things, we can all see every post ever made.

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Shows what a cult it is. So called “free thinker of ccmb” tying himself in knots to show this is what he always wanted.

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Originally Posted by Rjk

https://twitter.com/sjharley/status/...357158913?s=19

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Even if only one of those things happen it shows what a disaster this has been.

Still waiting for one positive reason for the country too.

The closest we've had is William Treseder saying the EU are corrupt. Doesn't seem to mind our own Government being corrupt though.

Load of old desperate bollocks by the remain faction. Not a single substantial point

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Originally Posted by rudy gestede

If no deal happens this isn’t project fear this is reality mate.

We are Britain and the actual case is people who rely on certain drugs will die because we can’t get them.

The U.K. imports 99.7% of its insulin. If you are happy for people who have something simple like diabetes to die fair enough.

But I hope you can tell me something positive that will come from this to offset people literally dying?

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..............and you think the Danish pharmaceuticals firm Novo Nordisk, and Sanofi, based in France, will allow themselves to go to the wall because they cannot export to the UK. WE buy..... they sell.....stop scaremongering.

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Originally Posted by RonnieBird

Load of old desperate bollocks by the remain faction. Not a single substantial point

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Why don't you log back in as Wales-Bales and answer my question earlier eh

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Originally Posted by rudy gestede

If you don’t have ronniebird and walesbales on ignore you should. Makes every thread much more bareable if you ignore him and the complete bollocks he posts.

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How do you do that?

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Originally Posted by Maurice Swan

..............and you think the Danish pharmaceuticals firm Novo Nordisk, and Sanofi, based in France, will allow themselves to go to the wall because they cannot export to the UK. WE buy..... they sell.....stop scaremongering.

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I'm not scaremongering mate it's facts. There's no want about it, you can't trade without a deal no matter how much they want to.

Also do you know what percentage of business the UK makes up of thesepharmaceuticals? Have a look in the yellowhammer document about the effect on the EU.

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Originally Posted by Maurice Swan

..............and you think the Danish pharmaceuticals firm Novo Nordisk, and Sanofi, based in France, will allow themselves to go to the wall because they cannot export to the UK. WE buy..... they sell.....stop scaremongering.

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They’ve got 27 other countries without a trade barrier to sell drugs to mate and countless others with trade deals.

The U.K. makes up a percentage of their business and is the one suffering here.

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Originally Posted by Maurice Swan

..............and you think the Danish pharmaceuticals firm Novo Nordisk, and Sanofi, based in France, will allow themselves to go to the wall because they cannot export to the UK. WE buy..... they sell.....stop scaremongering.

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Nobody denies that EU exporters won't be too happy about it but:

1) it doesn't mean they cannot export - it's a matter of timing and delays as much as anything else. But those delays can literally kill the people waiting
2) even if they couldn't export to the UK (which they can), it doesn't mean they would go bust
3) regardless of their commercial interests, they are not actually in charge of the EU's policy on Brexit so the fact that they won't like it doesn't actually mean it won't happen.

I genuinely think that people are underestimating the scale of disruption that this is going to cause to supply chains.

EDIT: just realised you might be thinking of the ban in teh other direction i.e. on exports from the UK. I think that is a possibility in an attempt to maintain medicine levels in the UK because of problems with imports and because the pound would likely crash, incentivising export.

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Originally Posted by Maurice Swan

..............and you think the Danish pharmaceuticals firm Novo Nordisk, and Sanofi, based in France, will allow themselves to go to the wall because they cannot export to the UK. WE buy..... they sell.....stop scaremongering.

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Why have a lot of the UK's pharmaceutical companies relocated to the EU if it's going to be so bad for them?

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Originally Posted by rudy gestede

If you don’t have ronniebird and walesbales on ignore you should. Makes every thread much more bareable if you ignore him and the complete bollocks he posts.

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I concur.

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Originally Posted by Optimistic Nick

How do you do that?

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Go to his profile(s) and choose the fourth option down regarding ignoring the poster(s) concerned.

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Originally Posted by RonnieBird

Load of old desperate bollocks by the remain faction. Not a single substantial point

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Now, if you'd have said " Load of old desperate codgers in the Leave faction. Not a genuine no deal voter among them", i would have agreed with you.

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Originally Posted by Taunton Blue Genie

Go to his profile(s) and choose the fourth option down regarding ignoring the poster(s) concerned.

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thanks - I was not logged in for some reason. Done.

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Originally Posted by RonnieBird

Load of old desperate bollocks by the remain faction. Not a single substantial point

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I think you’ll find that many “substantial points” have been made by Remainers, but Leavers choose to plug their ears, like my 6 year old son.
It is you, who has made no attempt at using any facts - only a load of claptrap about the war, which I doubt you’re old enough to have personally experienced.
Using the war as an example overlooks several flaws, namely that we didn’t choose to go to war (it was a reaction to the threat from Nazi Germany) and we didn’t win it ourselves - in fact we got our arses handed to us in the events leading up to Dunkirk (due to ill preparedness- sound familiar?) and were weeks away from defeat in the Battle of Britain before Hitler decided to invade Russia. We had to rely on being part of a larger group in order to prevail in the end.
I find it distasteful for Leavers (or Moggluddites, as I call them - you’re welcome) to keep banging on about the war and Churchill.

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Originally Posted by Maurice Swan

..............and you think the Danish pharmaceuticals firm Novo Nordisk, and Sanofi, based in France, will allow themselves to go to the wall because they cannot export to the UK. WE buy..... they sell.....stop scaremongering.

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What percentage of the combined GDP of the EU do those two firms make up and why do you think they have so much say?

German car firms were meant to swing it in our favour the day after the vote and we are still waiting for that to happen.

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Originally Posted by Eric Cartman

What percentage of the GDP of the EU do those two firms make up?

German car firms were meant to swing it in our favour the day after the vote and we are still waiting for that to happen.

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Also ignoring the fact that a lot of these pharmaceutical companies also had to move from the UK which resulted in job losses.

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Originally Posted by Optimistic Nick

How do you do that?

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I did it a few weeks ago and the board is immeasurably better

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Originally Posted by Vindec

Presumably the vast majority on here will vote for Jeremy Corbyn. After all that is how their parents voted so they will blindly follow suit as do many in the country. Lets examine Labour's stance:

Corbyn first said he would honour the referendum in his manifesto; then he stated he would seek a new deal and put it to the people in a second referendum; then Labour state they will campaign for a General Election after which they will negotiate a better deal if elected and then vote against their own deal in a second referendum. Then yesterday Tom Watson's priority is to get a second referendum before an Election. How Labour propose selling this jumbled mess to the public on the doorstep is beyond comprehension. On the other hand we have the Liberals who will campaign to Remain while calling for a second Referendum the result of which they will ignore if they get into power if the voters vote again to leave. It's a clear message but equally daft as Labour's policy. Meanwhile Johnson is doing all he can to leave with no deal while pretending to negotiate revised and better deal with the EU. All this says to me is that all political parties are as bad as each other and are all playing political games to suit their purposes prior to an inevitable election.

As for Yellowhammer that is supposedly the worst case scenario to enable civil servants to concentrate on the areas of most importance if there is no deal. Many of the commentators have accepted hook line and sinker that Yellowhammer is a document of fact when clearly it is not. It's a planning document to deal with the issues raised. Some of the comments on here are bordering on the hysterical which is understandable as the politicians are ramping up project fear to appeal to prospective voters in the next Election.

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I find the fact Labour haven't dumped Corbyn, regrouped and used this an opportunity to regain power and sort this shit out VERY depressing.

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Originally Posted by rudy gestede

If you don’t have ronniebird and walesbales on ignore you should. Makes every thread much more bareable if you ignore him and the complete bollocks he posts.

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Truth.

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Originally Posted by RonnieBird

I voted for no deal if you want to put it that way, and I'm not a liar.
Any deal or otherwise was a thing which would obviously follow Brexit ,but it was not on the ballot paper and it wasn't an issue.

It's still not, except as another trick by the elite minority to stop Brexit.

It's about national sovereignty and history, including the wartime sacrifices which you make fun of there. However, the whole EU project is faulted for many reasons and the British public have voted to leave it, so in the end democracy will prevail.

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So, given that we have never lost national sovereignty, you still haven't given that one upside of Brexit.
I would love to hear just one tangible benefit of Brexit, it doesn't have to be no-deal Brexit, it doesn't even have to offset all the negatives of Brexit, just one little positive.