Why would we be on lockdown for 4 years after we'd all been vaccinated?Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman
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Why would we be on lockdown for 4 years after we'd all been vaccinated?Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman
Covid 24 .Quote:
Originally Posted by delmbox
What is the infection rate? Didn't I read somewhere that one cruise had a rate of less than 20%? It's obvious that if one person has it, not everyone will get it from them. While I don't think that's a substitute for keeping a social distance and staying indoors, this is obviously important, it is important to know that people can be in a Covid-19 environment and not get it.
That is why I said "there is every chance". Just as there is "every chance" this goes away. There are lots of hopes being pinned on "herd immunity" and vaccines. However, there is no actual evidence that people will remain immune for any length of time. Similarly, there are no current vaccines for other corona viruses. That is not to say that these are impossible to develop, but they will take at least 18 months, and possibly even longer. Also, not one of the scientists has answered the question about how a vaccine would work against the various strains that are out there.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman
I am not saying we will be on complete lockdown for 5 years (the usual amount of time to get new vaccines and/or treatments on line) - I am saying do not be surprised if we are in a similar situation in November 2020, or in 2022, or 2024. This could very well be with us for a long time. The question will soon be "is it worth decimating businesses for this", but that decision has already been made by the actions being undertaken.
Because there could be various strains.Quote:
Originally Posted by delmbox
Because there could be a new strain in 2022, or 2024, or 2025.
That's a good point. Factors you need to know is when did the initial carrier join the cruise , or how long into the cruise did the 20% figure show?Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee
Lawnmower our illustrious poster is at home recovering from the virus . Another lad in his office also caught it . Tim said he was extremely careful , how did he get it , how come everyone in his office didn't catch it?
Without doubt it's a lottery to some extent. A lottery we have more chance of winning if we keep our distance and stay at home.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmy the Jock
You say the general consensus is "once you've had it, you're fine". However, that isn;t the case with the common cold. It really isn't. You may get a strain of the common cold this year, and get the same strain next year or the year after. There is absolutely zero evidence that you contracting Covid-19 means that you are immune forever.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmy the Jock
I have not said there will be 5 year lock-downs, what I am saying is that there is no evidence that this will simply evaporate once we have "herd immunity".
As for your actions, although it is commendable you have delivered food etc, I have been doing exactly the same. As for your business, I have sympathy with that too. But, your previous actions (together with many like you) have done little to ease the pressure on the NHS. I am growing incredibly pissed off reading that 600, 700, 800 people have died, and that a 5 year old, a 13 year old, 3 nurses, doctors etc are also dying. It took 4 weeks of this for the penny to drop for you. I am glad it has dropped. But, there are even stupider people out there flouting the rules, elongating the current wave, and the point I am making is that this will not be the first and last wave. Far from it. We will get restrictions lifted and put back in place for at least 18 months. I say that will be longer because, despite all the "positive" stories of vaccines being tested, these things really do take years.
If the Government (advised by epidemiologists, virologists, doctors and scientists) tell us to stay home - then we ****ing stay at home. No ifs, no buts. It isn't killing people with "underlying health" conditions alone.
Was he tested?Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmy the Jock
People in his office may have caught it and been asymptomatic. The general R0 figure was 2.28 on the Princess Diamond ship. It does not follow that one person will pass it on to everyone that they are in contact with.
He probably caught it from breathing in droplets from an infected person (who may have also been asymptomatic)
I'm so glad I've had it and recovered from it.
I go out now without worrying if I'm going to catch it. I still take a bit of caution like social distancing for other people's peace of mind and I will wear gloves if I push a supermarket trolley.
I no longer feel afraid to go out and be around people like I did when before I caught it.
I'm glad you recovered from it - were you tested?Quote:
Originally Posted by uncle bob
No . He had all the symptoms . He has been quite poorly .Quote:
Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO
I know Tim didn’t go to hospital , not sure about his colleague , therefore they wouldn’t be counted as having the virus . Correct ?
Would be interesting to see how many people we know that have had it and they haven’t been registered . How many people visit this board , a few hundred ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmy the Jock
Then how do you know he has had it?
Shouldn’t the whole country be locked down full stop then ?Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee
Never mind .Quote:
Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO
So you don't know he has had it. It could be the flu which has many of the same symptoms. This is the big issue, we need more testing. We have people thinking they've had it, but actually haven't, walking around like supermen as if they have life-long immunity, but that also hasn't been scientifically proven.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmy the Jock
What I am saying is that a load of you are making assumptions that are as dangerous as the virus itself.
You're talking incredibly confidently about a whole lot of very specialist subjects, what is it you do for a living? Serious questionQuote:
Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO
What makes you think I am talking confidently. Someone makes a claim (two people in this thread alone either claim to have had it, or know someone who has). The logical question is "Were you tested?".Quote:
Originally Posted by delmbox
Similarly, people talk about immunity, but the science papers I have read are inconclusive.
Similarly, people talk like this is a one-off. Again the science papers I have read indicate that there is nothing to prevent a covid-21, covid-23 or covid-24.
I don't have any answers, and haven't really offered any. I have a strong interest in science related news items, and I would like to think that I apply a critical thought process to things I read.
There are, at best, 46 strains of this virus. From my understanding, viruses usually mutate into something weaker. However, the one question I have been asking myself (and for which I can find no answers) is does one vaccine defeat all covid-19 infections?
People often equate this with the flu. But, there are various strains of the flu. When you get a flu vaccination, it doesn't protect you against the flu full stop. It protects you against the most likely strain for the winter. That doesn't mean you shouldn't get vaccinated, but what it does mean is that you should not expect to be immune from the flu simply from the vaccine. At best you are 60% immune - if lucky.
Yeah , but what do you do for a living ?Quote:
Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO
I am not quite sure where my local testing station is ?Quote:
Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO
I am sure you do . Share ..
He's a protocol droid. fluent in 6 million forms of communication.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmy the Jock
I thought so .Quote:
Originally Posted by Nelsonca61
:hehe:
How does lawnmower know he has had covid-19?Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmy the Jock
How does Uncle Bob?
It's not a difficult question. If there has been no test, what makes lawnmower and uncle bob qualified to say they had covid-19 and not the flu?
Is the flu going about impersonating covid 19 ?Quote:
Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO
In the absence of a test, how does lawnmower and how does Uncle Bob know they have covid-19?Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmy the Jock
Why is Uncle Bob walking around thinking "I've had it, so I am ok"?
I am not saying they HAVEN'T had covid-19, I am asking how do they know they HAVE had covid-19?
Not everyone is going to be exposed to it in an unvaccinated state.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmy the Jock
I think this thread is showing the dangers of us arriving at judgements on a subject that, let's face it, nearly all of us knew buggar all about a couple of months ago. That's why I often qualify what I say with the words "I may be wrong here". And I'll do so again here.
From what I can gather, the scientific community have been caught on the hop somewhat because it was thought that the next pandemic would be a variant of the flu, hence the apparent lack of progress on the vaccines for corona viruses - they haven't been essential in the past. I'd also add a personal view here in that the fact that it is relatively rich western countries that are being worst affected will concentrate minds more than if it were the usual suspects so to speak and so I would not be surprised at all to see a vaccine available before some of the predictions in this thread.
I know there are those who, maybe justifiably, are wary of Chinese figures, but they probably are the best things we can go on for now and there seems little in them so far to suggest that you can catch the virus again after having it- I say that having also read something by an expert in the field who said that there are always a very small percentage of people who have a second bout of any pandemic virus.
Returning to my first point, the fact that so little work was being done on finding vaccines for corona viruses until recently suggests that the likelihood of Covid 21., 22, 24 etc is low historically doesn't it? Again though, I qualify all of the above by adding that they are the opinions of someone who is far, far from a specialist in this field.
Seems a fair question to be honest..Quote:
Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO
I'm not saying they haven't had it but would also like to know how they know they have had it?
You're using this sort of language repeatedly. There is no evidence for it and it's really not helpful.Quote:
Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO
There is a chance we'll have lock-downs for five years or more, not every chance.
As for being in the same position in November 2020, or 2022, or 2024, the fact of the matter is that you have no more idea what the situation will be then than anybody else does, although you like to make it sound like you do.
And you're not?Quote:
Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO
Could be. Could be. Could be.Quote:
Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO
Is that a fact?Quote:
Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO
Well, the likelihood of a Covid-19 was also low. But, here we are. I would like to think that we would be better prepared for any subsequent one but, until we resolve the current issue globally, we won't be.Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
A recent study in China of 262 recovered sufferers found that 38 tested positive for Covid-19 after being discharged. That doesn't mean reinfection, but it could mean reinfection. It could also be that there are traces of the virus after recovery, or it could mean that there were problems with the first test.
So, the question of immunity hasn't been answered. I have seen estimates as low as few months to as high as a few years. That is why there is, in my opinion, a possibility of further waves of this going on for a few years (based on the premise that a vaccine is difficult to produce). I see as much evidence for this scenario as there is evidence this is a one wave pandemic.
It's also not helpful that people walk around thinking they have had it and are therefore immune to it. Firstly, these people have never been tested so they are assuming they've had it. Secondly, they are assuming that they are now immune. Thirdly, they are assuming that they can no longer be a transmitter of the disease. Their assumptions may well be correct, but if they are not correct they are putting themselves in danger. I wouldn't want to get Covid-19 at all, let alone a few weeks after a nasty flu infection.
So what you're saying is that your opinion is different to mine, but, still, neither of us can be sure of what were saying and we cannot speak with any great authority on this subject, hence my frequent use of I could be wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO
What is the evidence you have seen that means you can categorically rule this scenario out? I've been looking, and I can't see anything. Therefore, what makes my scenario (based on the lack of knowledge on immunisation, the lack of a vaccine, the inability to test enough of the population of practically every country) more unhelpful than the scenario that life will be back to normal in time for Christmas. I have not said anywhere that this WILL happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman
The Spanish flu was with us for 2 years - this was exacerbated by people returning from war and malnourishment. It died a natural way, but at a time when people weren't travelling all 4 corners of the globe. How easy do you think it will be to contain a second wave that originates in America or Australia or India?
Look, I have put the reasons for my arguments here in black and white. Where I have been most forceful is in challenging other people's opinions. That doesn't mean I think I am right, and I've never said I am right. I appreciate my scenario is unpalatable. But, I have to say, I won't be led up a pretty garden path on this. The thought and expectation that flattening the curve is all we have to do is incredibly optimistic. I am fearful that people are not being prepared for a reoccurrence of this - and I am incredibly concerned at how the public would respond if there were a second wave that they weren't expecting.
Personally, I think the UK is one of the few countries to have gotten the handling of this correct - albeit late. That doesn't preclude the likelihood of another wave and another lockdown . I don't quite understand why me ruling this out is so upsetting. I am preparing for it - I will be downsizing as soon as this is over and making myself mortgage free. If my job survives this wave, it won't survive if there is a subsequent wave.
Where I have less confidence is that, once contained, it is over. Where I have less confidence is that, once you have it, you're immune for years. And, I have little confidence that a vaccine is the complete answer. That will take years (I still think 18 months is optimistic) - and you have the anti-vax movement to contend with. Measles was all but eradicated until recently thanks to those bastards.
Lawnmower had a dry cough, a fever and lost his sense of taste.Quote:
Originally Posted by stan butler
Until the tests are available to all we will stumble around in the darkness.
Cant find much in there to argue with . That's how I see it going , truth is no one knows .Quote:
Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO
I opened with my opinion. I am mechanic who drives a truck and runs a small business. What do I know ?
If something good comes from this , will it be our attitude to greed and the destruction we are doing to the planet?
What is dangerous about debating the possibility that this could go on for a long time? Compared to others in this thread whoQuote:
Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman
A Still go out cycling
B Have been ill and assume they are immune from Covid-19
C Assume a friend has had it and query why not everyone he has been with has had it (conspirational theory stuff)
I have
A Explored and reasoned why I think this COULD BE with us a long time. I will be happy if and when I am wrong, and I'll continue reading the journals and change my opinions based on those.
You are trying, in a blinkered way, to make mileage out of the fact that I use words like "could be" but everything is a "could be". It's obvious that if my "could be" was a nice one you'd have less of a problem. It's plain that you are unable to apply critical or scientific thinking to this. I am not ruling anything in or out - there is no embarrassment if I am wrong, that's not how this stuff works (although that is exactly how it works on a forum where people fall out over trivial matters)
I have seen something similar written on a scientific forum, and it's not surprising that it has had a more mature response from a more pragmatic audience than my posting on a football message board. It reasons that countries will face shortened periods of restrictions over the next decade - many of those placed to protect the economy from a longer lockdown like Spain, Italy and eventually us are experiencing.