52 deaths due to Coivid in UK Reported Yesterday

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Originally Posted by lardy

I guess it must be a coincidence that deaths and cases fall when we enter a lockdown and rise when it's over.

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:hehe:

I think only 2 reported in Wales yesterday but it was the weekend figure. Now awaiting today's figures. As low now as last September. Reported infections are going down too, and we are testing more people now than last year. But there again, there are signs from Italy, Poland and Germany of rising figures, allegedly due to other strains.

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Originally Posted by cardiff55

I think only 2 reported in Wales yesterday but it was the weekend figure. Now awaiting today's figures. As low now as last September. Reported infections are going down too, and we are testing more people now than last year. But there again, there are signs from Italy, Poland and Germany of rising figures, allegedly due to other strains.

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As long as the vaccines work as they're thought to we shouldn't have to worry.

The amount of testing we are doing at the moment is reassuring too, especially with the low % of positivity coming from them.

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

As long as the vaccines work as they're thought to we shouldn't have to worry.

The amount of testing we are doing at the moment is reassuring too, especially with the low % of positivity coming from them.

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I think you are misunderstanding how they work.

They do not stop you getting ill, they reduce the chances of you getting ill by a good margin, they reduce but not eliminate transmission. They stop you from dieing.

There will still be transmission of the virus, and the more elusive strains will still likely make you ill as the vaccine is not effective against these other strains. As soon as we allow people to go on holidays again more strains will enter the country that are likely to beat the vaccines.

Enjoy this upcoming break from it all, but we are not even half way through this yet...

I actually think the effect of the different strains has been overblown a bit by the media.

The vaccines also severely reduce hospitalisation and death even with the variants.

And there is evidence that they all significantly reduce transmission.

Plus a booster won’t take anywhere near as long to produce as the vaccines did and would probably only be needed for the most vulnerable people.

I’m not saying you’re wrong but I think it’s a very pessimistic view to take when looking at how vaccines and virus have behaved historically and with the real world data we currently have.

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Originally Posted by Barry Dragon

I think you are misunderstanding how they work.

They do not stop you getting ill, they reduce the chances of you getting ill by a good margin, they reduce but not eliminate transmission. They stop you from dieing.

There will still be transmission of the virus, and the more elusive strains will still likely make you ill as the vaccine is not effective against these other strains. As soon as we allow people to go on holidays again more strains will enter the country that are likely to beat the vaccines.

Enjoy this upcoming break from it all, but we are not even half way through this yet...

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I think you're right with what you say, but also think the threat to health services being over run is going to be greatly reduced which should help bring normality back.

However the biggest problem we have is unvaccinated countries, which is still not going to be resolved soon. I think I heard that 130 countries have not begun vaccination, and that's mainly because a handful of countries have snaffled the doses. Hancock said the UK had reserved over 350 million doses. Doses earmarked for mainly fit over 40s would do more good being sent to health workers in unvaccinated countries but that won't happen.

This is what will hold the world back.

I also think there is never going to be zero Covid and anyone striving for this is going to be disappointed.

The vaccines will reduce it to another thing we will have to put up with.

We have to accept that there will be a level of death and infection probably seasonally forever. But hopefully from the figures being seen at the moment it will be more of par with flu if not lower with the efficacy we’ve seen so far.

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Originally Posted by lardy

I think you're right with what you say, but also think the threat to health services being over run is going to be greatly reduced which should help bring normality back.

However the biggest problem we have is unvaccinated countries, which is still not going to be resolved soon. I think I heard that 130 countries have not begun vaccination, and that's mainly because a handful of countries have snaffled the doses. Hancock said the UK had reserved over 350 million doses. Doses earmarked for mainly fit over 40s would do more good being sent to health workers in unvaccinated countries but that won't happen.

This is what will hold the world back.

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In fairness to the U.K. here they’ve been hit pretty badly with deaths and I think are probably right to be paranoid and want to lower the risk as much as possible.

Also they invested in the Oxford vaccine will be sold at cost so should go some way to helping poorer countries.

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

As long as the vaccines work as they're thought to we shouldn't have to worry.

The amount of testing we are doing at the moment is reassuring too, especially with the low % of positivity coming from them.

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I agree. I had my first vaccine jab 3 weeks ago. 12 hours later II developed symptoms like 'flu , which i had for 24 hours. Apart from that no problem. The important thing is about reducing the risk of hospitalisation , and being asthmatic and really old! So old I can remember Les Lea and Barrie Jones playing for City.

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

In fairness to the U.K. here they’ve been hit pretty badly with deaths and I think are probably right to be paranoid and want to lower the risk as much as possible.

Also they invested in the Oxford vaccine will be sold at cost so should go some way to helping poorer countries.

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Not just the UK - Canada has also massively overordered with almost 10 doses per person. The EU has a whole is 3.5 doses and the US is a little higher.

There's a clear match of high income countries and high vaccination rate, which is obviously no surprise. I'm not making a criticism as I would not expect anything else; they have to vaccinate themselves first. But the virus doesn't respect borders and I expect that will become the main problem in the second half of 2021. How can a vaccinated country open its economy to a mainly unvaccinated world?

I thought that plan was to distribute those vaccines once the time came. I agree with you completely, until everyone is sorted the reopening will be limited.

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Originally Posted by Barry Dragon

I think you are misunderstanding how they work.

They do not stop you getting ill, they reduce the chances of you getting ill by a good margin, they reduce but not eliminate transmission. They stop you from dieing.

There will still be transmission of the virus, and the more elusive strains will still likely make you ill as the vaccine is not effective against these other strains. As soon as we allow people to go on holidays again more strains will enter the country that are likely to beat the vaccines.

Enjoy this upcoming break from it all, but we are not even half way through this yet...

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Wasnt there a recent report that the Oxford vaccine reduces transmission by 85%? I thought the main thing was that it stops people getting it AND spreading it.....:shrug:

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

I was reading an article recently of how comparing countries isn’t probably the best way to measure success.

I’d always be the first to criticise this government and there is no argument from me that we’ve handled this poorly.

But we do have an over weight population who are very susceptible to the virus. We also have a very old population thanks to the nhs and we are also a very densely populated country.

So whilst we have handled it poorly especially on the lead up to Christmas comparing our deaths to other countries maybe is the best metric to judge.

Also there I think there is a floor for number fo deaths from this especially due to the seasonal effect so I’m not sure how likely we ever are to see single figures again.

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There are so many factors that you could look at to the contrary though. The fact we are an island for example gives us a pretty good advantage!

There are several countries you could look at in Europe alone where arguably you could’ve expected the UK to fare better. And we didn’t, with a head start where we could’ve benefitted from their hindsight.

I was also more inclined to agree with the argument we shouldn’t compare (the gov trotted this one out regularly), until now we’re encouraged to compare how well we’re doing with the rest of the world.

In fairness we are an island but we are also an economic hub, we should have controlled our borders much better but at the same time I'm not sure we'd have been able to have gone full new zealand/austrailia on it.

I'm not saying this government have done a good job with covid, I think the complete opposite. But I also think we do have some mitigating factors as to why our deaths are as high as they are.

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

I thought that plan was to distribute those vaccines once the time came. I agree with you completely, until everyone is sorted the reopening will be limited.

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The question is when is the time. There'll come a point when under 30s are being vaccinated. If there are many countries still on less than 5% vaccinated, which I doubt is an unlikely figure, then the UK would be better off sending those doses elsewhere. But it would be very hard to convince the electorate.

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Originally Posted by goats

Wasnt there a recent report that the Oxford vaccine reduces transmission by 85%? I thought the main thing was that it stops people getting it AND spreading it.....:shrug:

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As you say, reduces transmission. That not the same as stops it.

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Originally Posted by lardy

Not just the UK - Canada has also massively overordered with almost 10 doses per person. The EU has a whole is 3.5 doses and the US is a little higher.

There's a clear match of high income countries and high vaccination rate, which is obviously no surprise. I'm not making a criticism as I would not expect anything else; they have to vaccinate themselves first. But the virus doesn't respect borders and I expect that will become the main problem in the second half of 2021. How can a vaccinated country open its economy to a mainly unvaccinated world?

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There is not a high vaccination rate in Canada. It’s miles behind. Ordering vaccines and getting them are 2 different things

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Originally Posted by lardy

As you say, reduces transmission. That not the same as stops it.

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Aren't they all showing fairly high levels of reduction though?

I think the main thing is reducting the severity anyway but a big reduction in transmission will be a big bonus.

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Originally Posted by StraightOuttaCanton

There is not a high vaccination rate in Canada. It’s miles behind. Ordering vaccines and getting them are 2 different things

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This is true, but having vaccines on order at least means that doses will be even later for other poorer countries. A problem is being created that will become apparent later this year, not that I've got any solutions for it.

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

Aren't they all showing fairly high levels of reduction though?

I think the main thing is reducting the severity anyway but a big reduction in transmission will be a big bonus.

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Yeah agree.

Goats seems to think the vaccine stops people catching Covid, which is a pretty big misconception of how vaccines work.

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Originally Posted by cyril evans awaydays

For a man who massively underplayed Covid at the start, railed against every restriction that has been imposed to stop its spread and has gone on record to say that lockdowns don't work you deserve some credit for the chutzpah in this argument.

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Well thank you.

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Originally Posted by goats

Wasnt there a recent report that the Oxford vaccine reduces transmission by 85%? I thought the main thing was that it stops people getting it AND spreading it.....:shrug:

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That is the plan , accept in Europe where they seem to be having all sorts of problems , so the suspension of its use will increase the spread risk ,strange times .

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

From memory, you’re a category C aren’t you - they’re all as bad as each other and it’s just a coincidence I always come down on the same side of the fence in my opinions.

There were no deaths in Northern Ireland on Sunday and none in Wales about ten days ago, they are occasions for celebration- 52 still seems way too high to start doing that for me.

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I honestly don't know what category C refers to, but there comes a point when you feel that there truly is a point in time to feel celebratory. Covid deaths on a daily basis could go on for years. At what point do we 'celebrate ?

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

Aren't they all showing fairly high levels of reduction though?

I think the main thing is reducting the severity anyway but a big reduction in transmission will be a big bonus.

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Never going to stop it 100%, not yet anyway, but give it a few years.....it’s amazing how much more knowledge the medical world have already compared to 12 months ago....

52% reduction in deaths when comparing today’s figures to last weeks, hopefully we continue to move in the right direction z