Sky Prediction Of General Election

I learnt tonight that Andy Street ( the now former west midlands mayor) is the boyfriend of Michael Fabricant.

Lets just be clear, Labour are doing terribly, so awfully, despite all the results which show otherwise.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by JamesWales

I learnt tonight that Andy Street ( the now former west midlands mayor) is the boyfriend of Michael Fabricant.

---

That Micheal Fabricant is a right cant

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pipster

Me to - lot's of Labour spending recklessly it'll be just like the good ol days of Blair / Brown throwing money at large public sector projects which are just a financial black hole. Should be even easier with Rayner and Starma at the wheel :)

---

Which was the last government to not run a deficit? I'll give you a clue, it wasn't your lot.

Investing is good for the economy, which is why the UK is in such a state.

I'm baffled about the results of the local elections after looking through various different media sources.

The BBC say: Tories - 474 seats; Labour + 186

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68609732

The Guardian says: Tories - 397 seats; Labour + 232

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ts-for-england

They disagree on the seat totals for all the other parties too!

Locally in Sheffield the BBC say Labour gained 2; the Lib Dems lost 2, Independents (Gaza) gained 1 and the Tories lost their only seat and are again wiped out. But the local online paper (Sheffield Tribune) did a long and detailed post election analysis yesterday which claimed Labour gained 5 seats (and disagreed with the BBC on most of the other group totals too).

Bizarre!

What I want to know is - why are the Tories and media pointing the finger at Sunak regarding these results?

This is the first opportunity for most to vote since Partygate and Truss' debacle as PM. Have they forgotten this because I'm sure the public at large haven't.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by stevo

What I want to know is - why are the Tories and media pointing the finger at Sunak regarding these results?

This is the first opportunity for most to vote since Partygate and Truss' debacle as PM. Have they forgotten this because I'm sure the public at large haven't.

---

Sunak is the fall guy

I see that poison dwarf suella braverman was squealing on the news today clearly pushing for the Tories to appeal to the right wing voters

But I think moderate Tories have ditched them and the nutters are going to vote reform

Which is great for Labour

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jon1959

I'm baffled about the results of the local elections after looking through various different media sources.

The BBC say: Tories - 474 seats; Labour + 186

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68609732

The Guardian says: Tories - 397 seats; Labour + 232

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ts-for-england

They disagree on the seat totals for all the other parties too!

Locally in Sheffield the BBC say Labour gained 2; the Lib Dems lost 2, Independents (Gaza) gained 1 and the Tories lost their only seat and are again wiped out. But the local online paper (Sheffield Tribune) did a long and detailed post election analysis yesterday which claimed Labour gained 5 seats (and disagreed with the BBC on most of the other group totals too).

Bizarre!

---

I think the BBC figures are right. It's a rare example of the guardian skewing reality to suit the Tories!

Aside from the frustration I have with party politics, I do love all the graphs and charts from this stuff, but local elections are nothing like general elections or senedd elections etc. The numbers are so skewed on where elections take place etc that it's hard to get too excited bar the key takeaways of Labour doing well, Tories bad etc

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by JamesWales

I think the BBC figures are right. It's a rare example of the guardian skewing reality to suit the Tories!

Aside from the frustration I have with party politics, I do love all the graphs and charts from this stuff, but local elections are nothing like general elections or senedd elections etc. The numbers are so skewed on where elections take place etc that it's hard to get too excited bar the key takeaways of Labour doing well, Tories bad etc

---

I have no axe to grind as they say, as I have no confidence that either the Tories or Labour have a magic bullet solution to the malaise in the country. I agree with the above - it is ridiculous to try to predict the outcome of a general election based on local election results especially when the turn out was so low in most cases. I haven't got the time or the energy to look back to the previous local election results and see how the actual numbers of people who voted along party lines. I did it for the last couple of by-elections and the figures were quite enlightening.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by JamesWales

I think the BBC figures are right. It's a rare example of the guardian skewing reality to suit the Tories!

Aside from the frustration I have with party politics, I do love all the graphs and charts from this stuff, but local elections are nothing like general elections or senedd elections etc. The numbers are so skewed on where elections take place etc that it's hard to get too excited bar the key takeaways of Labour doing well, Tories bad etc

---

I agree with most of that. Low turnout makes GE predictions based on the Local Election votes a nonsense. I think the rolling polls - maybe adjusted for a late Tory upturn - are the best guide.

But even with a low turnout it is interesting (and relevant for the GE) to see where Reform are damaging the Tories and where the Greens and various smaller left groups and independents are eating into the Labour vote.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jon1959

I agree with most of that. Low turnout makes GE predictions based on the Local Election votes a nonsense. I think the rolling polls - maybe adjusted for a late Tory upturn - are the best guide.

But even with a low turnout it is interesting (and relevant for the GE) to see where Reform are damaging the Tories and where the Greens and various smaller left groups and independents are eating into the Labour vote.

---

Yeah there's definitely takeaways from it, I mean more any kind of statistical analysis, which can be so clearly made from General Election to General Election but can't be here.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Gofer Blue

I have no axe to grind as they say, as I have no confidence that either the Tories or Labour have a magic bullet solution to the malaise in the country. I agree with the above - it is ridiculous to try to predict the outcome of a general election based on local election results especially when the turn out was so low in most cases. I haven't got the time or the energy to look back to the previous local election results and see how the actual numbers of people who voted along party lines. I did it for the last couple of by-elections and the figures were quite enlightening.

---

Turnout is definitely an issue but simply put, people vote completely differently in local elections. I live in a Tory area and voted Green at the locals across the board last time around (we only had PCC this time and I didn't bother) because I felt they had a better chance of winning. In a general election Labour are consistently 2nd in this seat and I will vote accordingly.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Eric Cartman

Turnout is definitely an issue but simply put, people vote completely differently in local elections. I live in a Tory area and voted Green at the locals across the board last time around (we only had PCC this time and I didn't bother) because I felt they had a better chance of winning. In a general election Labour are consistently 2nd in this seat and I will vote accordingly.

---

I didn't vote at all. Mainly because I don't agree with the PCC elections. First time I have ever not voted mind.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Doucas

Which was the last government to not run a deficit? I'll give you a clue, it wasn't your lot.

Investing is good for the economy, which is why the UK is in such a state.

---

with all due respect that's because when Labour came to power in 1997 the economy had created a surplus. Brown soon broke his rules and became a freewheeling spendocrat though, seriously overutilising PFI unlike the Tories who dreamt up the idea.