The Donald Trump thread

[QUOTE=az city;5583371]

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Originally Posted by JamesWales

You don't need a PhD to know that facts are worth more than a theory or model.

If your statement were true (and it isn't) it would bare fruit in the display of key economic data.

But you never produce that. When asked you play another one of your ad hominem attack cards.

You can pity me all you like. I'm not the one making outlandish statements and then abusing people for having a different opinion on an internet forum.[/QUOTE

Direct from the OBR in 2025

"Specifically, our latest economy forecast assumes that:

The post-Brexit trading relationship between the UK and EU, as set out in the ‘Trade and Cooperation Agreement’ (TCA) that came into effect on 1 January 2021, will reduce long-run productivity by 4 per cent relative to remaining in the EU. This largely reflects our view that the increase in non-tariff barriers on UK-EU trade acts as an additional impediment to the exploitation of comparative advantage. In order to generate this figure, we looked at a range of external estimates of the effect of leaving the EU under the terms of a ‘typical’ free trade agreement (FTA) (see Box 2.1 of our March 2020 EFO for more information). Our assessment is that the TCA is broadly similar to the ‘typical’ FTAs assumed in those studies and reflected in our forecasts since March 2020. We estimate that around two-fifths of the 4 per cent impact had already occurred by the time the TCA came into force, as a result of uncertainty weighing on investment and capital deepening (see Box 2.2 of our March 2021 EFO for more information).
Both exports and imports will be around 15 per cent lower in the long run than if the UK had remained in the EU. The size of this adjustment is calibrated to match the average estimate of a number of external studies that considered the impact of leaving the EU on the volume of UK-EU trade (see our November 2016 EFO for more information). Impacts on export and import growth are similar, therefore downward revisions to gross trade flows are broadly neutral in their effect on the current account over the medium term. Box 2.5 of our October 2021 EFO and Box 2.6 of our March 2022 EFO provide initial assessments of this assumption.
New trade deals with non-EU countries will not have a material impact, and any effect will be gradual (see our 2018 Discussion paper for more detail). This is because the deals concluded to date either replicate (or ‘roll over’) deals that the UK already benefited from as an EU member state, or do not have a material impact on our forecast. An example of the former is the UK-Japan ‘Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement’ – which largely mirrors the agreement Japan signed with the EU in 2019 – where the Government’s economic impact assessment suggests that it will increase the UK’s GDP by 0.1 per cent over the next 15 years (see the Government’s October 2020 UK-Japan CEPA: final impact assessment). This estimate is relative to not having a trade deal with Japan, whereas the UK would have been part of the EU-Japan agreement had it not left the EU. An example of the latter is the free-trade agreement with Australia, the first to be concluded with a country that does not have a similar arrangement with the EU. The Government’s estimate of the economic impact is that it will raise the UK’s GDP by 0.1 per cent over 15 years (see the Government’s December 2021 UK-Australia FTA: impact assessment).
We had assumed that the Government’s new post-Brexit migration regime would reduce net inward migration to the UK, settling at 129,000 a year in the medium-term, based on the ONS ‘zero net EU migration variant’ of the 2018-based population projections (see Box 2.4 of our March 2020 EFO). We have since revised up our projections for net migration to reflect evidence of sustained strength in inward migration since the post-Brexit migration regime was introduced. We now assume net migration settles at 315,000 a year in the medium term, based on the ONS 2021-based interim population projections (see Box 2.3 of our March 2024 EFO). This compares to 245,000 in our November 2023 forecast, which was based on the ONS 2020-based interim migration projections."

You'll note they aren't doing cross sectional comparisons as is YOUR erroneous want.

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He's gone missing on this one

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Originally Posted by Eric Cartman

Sorry sir, I'll get my full analysis on your desk by Monday, seriously?

Trade was massively talked about before Brexit, none of the promises of the leave campaign came true, all of the obvious effects of increasing barriers to trade came true and this thread is about Donald Trump who has just decided to scattergun tariffs (barriers to trade) around the world. Yeah I just can't think why I am focusing on trade?

'the reality is that on some key metrics we have outperformed our peers, and on some we haven't'

Seriously do you not get it yet after being told 15 million times in 15 million different threads? The success of Brexit isn't decided by us outperforming our peers, it is decided by us outperforming where we would have been if we hadn't left the EU.

Every independent authority who has done serious economic analysis of Brexit says one thing, we are worse off economically than we would have been. But it's okay because we did it for the benefits, which I am sure are just round the corner.

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You are engaging with JW

Who really is wasted on here and should be heading one of the world's leading banks or economic institutions

If not running the entire world such is his knowledge

I am surprised he hasn't been head hunted yet

AZ copied and pasted an OBR report on here to back up his conclusion that Brexit is "an unmitigated disaster", with no sense of irony posted a day or two after we had tariffs slapped on us that are half those of the EU, but we'll leave that one lie.

The OBR report makes assumptions on what trade with the EU would have been over the last few years since we left. Since then of course we've had a psnd

..pandemic (a week or two after we left), and a war in Europe. The assumptions on pretty much every aspect of every countries economy is not easy to do in those circumstances. The same OBR recently cut their growth prediction for this just a few months after their last prediction for the 2024 budget. Their predictions are not gospel and any long term model is riven by even greater uncertainty.

But that's not to say it's not valid. Of course it is. But what it doesn't do is override other key economic facts, on matters such as GDP, wages, inflation, FTSE performance and the like. If you want to come to a rounded conclusion then you absolutely consider those factors too. The EU isnt just a trade body. If it was then such an approach may have more merit, but we were asked to vote on the consideration of a very diverse range of factors (see here for some of the economic ones https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics...endum-36355564 ) and so it is only right than an assessment of the impact considers these too.

Basing a rather bombastic statement on a prediction on one part of the economy and ignoring facts on other far more holistic metrics is discontinuous and illogical. If a big economic change were an "unmitigated disaster" then it would show up in GDP, wages, inflation, stock markets, house prices, unemployment and the like, and is easily assessed against those who didn't go through that change.

If the impact basically leads to the same level of growth Vs our peers, slightly lower unemployment, similar inflation, slightly better wage growth, similar stock market performance etc etc then the impact is highly unlikely to be "an unmitigated disaster". Unhelpful? Maybe. Disruptive? Probably? Mixed results? Sure. What was promised? Definitely not so far. Unmitigated disaster? Absolutely not.

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Originally Posted by Heathblue

Where you been mate I've missed you.

By the way, I saw it on the DC Draino feed 👍

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Special guest appearance :hehe:

Enjoy your holiday!

[QUOTE=SLUDGE FACTORY;5583408]

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Originally Posted by JamesWales

You are an arsehole and an apologist for trump , farage and the right

You havnt watched the link I posted and you wouldn't if I glued your eyes open because it would show you up

And your ego won't allow that

Your laughable use of academic excuses , once again over egged with regard to racists setting hotels on fire puts you in the dock yet again

The footage is damning ....but you need to watch it .....and that's not in your plans as you would end up having to admit you are sometimes wrong

You are as bad as them so shove your fake intelligent nonsense

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Sorry Sludge, I have scrolled up and I can't see what link you are referring to? Maybe you could re-post it?

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Originally Posted by JamesWales

..pandemic (a week or two after we left), and a war in Europe. The assumptions on pretty much every aspect of every countries economy is not easy to do in those circumstances. The same OBR recently cut their growth prediction for this just a few months after their last prediction for the 2024 budget. Their predictions are not gospel and any long term model is riven by even greater uncertainty.

But that's not to say it's not valid. Of course it is. But what it doesn't do is override other key economic facts, on matters such as GDP, wages, inflation, FTSE performance and the like. If you want to come to a rounded conclusion then you absolutely consider those factors too. The EU isnt just a trade body. If it was then such an approach may have more merit, but we were asked to vote on the consideration of a very diverse range of factors (see here for some of the economic ones https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics...endum-36355564 ) and so it is only right than an assessment of the impact considers these too.

Basing a rather bombastic statement on a prediction on one part of the economy and ignoring facts on other far more holistic metrics is discontinuous and illogical. If a big economic change were an "unmitigated disaster" then it would show up in GDP, wages, inflation, stock markets, house prices, unemployment and the like, and is easily assessed against those who didn't go through that change.

If the impact basically leads to the same level of growth Vs our peers, slightly lower unemployment, similar inflation, slightly better wage growth, similar stock market performance etc etc then the impact is highly unlikely to be "an unmitigated disaster". Unhelpful? Maybe. Disruptive? Probably? Mixed results? Sure. What was promised? Definitely not so far. Unmitigated disaster? Absolutely not.

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Is there a cure for hubris? Apparently not in your case.

You know better than the OBR and every other expert in the field. You're pitiful.

Now do jog on, your village is missing you.

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Originally Posted by JamesWales

AZ copied and pasted an OBR report on here to back up his conclusion that Brexit is "an unmitigated disaster", with no sense of irony posted a day or two after we had tariffs slapped on us that are half those of the EU, but we'll leave that one lie.

The OBR report makes assumptions on what trade with the EU would have been over the last few years since we left. Since then of course we've had a psnd

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FYI, the OBR post is a summary from 2025 of their various analyses over the last decade. You think the 10% Trump tariff on the UK is a win apparently. Maybe you could explain that one.

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Originally Posted by az city

FYI, the OBR post is a summary from 2025 of their various analyses over the last decade. You think the 10% Trump tariff on the UK is a win apparently. Maybe you could explain that one.

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Is not a win, but if you are arguing tariffs are bad you can't then argue that 10% is less bad than the 20% we otherwise would have had

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Originally Posted by az city

Is there a cure for hubris? Apparently not in your case.

You know better than the OBR and every other expert in the field. You're pitiful.

Now do jog on, your village is missing you.

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No, was just getting it clear. So in your analysis of general impact on such a momentous economic change, you are..

Ignoring real GDP data, ignoring unemployment, ignoring the stock market, ignoring house prices, ignoring inflation, ignoring currency variations, wages and the myriad of other factors that make up a living economy (and were told would be wildly impacted) and basing it solely on a model and a prediction of one part of the economy, namely the trade of goods with the European Union, produced by an organisation that updates their own predictions from six months ago but now is spot on in terms of carrying from a hypothetical period that ended nine years ago?

And that's just the economy, let alone the political and social changes.

That's fine if so and if you are consistent on that going forward.

You can think on balance it's been negative. Toucan definitely think it's been negative on UK/EU trade but "unmitigated disaster" is an extremely bombastic statement with very little to back it up.

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Originally Posted by az city

FYI, the OBR post is a summary from 2025 of their various analyses over the last decade. You think the 10% Trump tariff on the UK is a win apparently. Maybe you could explain that one.

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It is not a win, but if you are arguing tariffs are bad you can't then argue that 10% is less bad than the 20% we otherwise would have had. Although I have a feeling you may try to do that.

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Originally Posted by JamesWales

It is not a win, but if you are arguing tariffs are bad you can't then argue that 10% is less bad than the 20% we otherwise would have had. Although I have a feeling you may try to do that.

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I mean of course that you can't argue that 10% tariffs are *worse* than 20%..

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Originally Posted by JamesWales

I mean of course that you can't argue that 10% tariffs are *worse* than 20%..

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TDS is a terrible illness with no known cure! :biggrin:

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Originally Posted by Wales-Bales

TDS is a terrible illness with no known cure! :biggrin:

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But nothing like as bad as Trump Infatuation Syndrome (TIS).

How do you think Trump's impersonation of Liz Truss is going?

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Originally Posted by jon1959

But nothing like as bad as Trump Infatuation Syndrome (TIS).

How do you think Trump's impersonation of Liz Truss is going?

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They should have stuck with LT and then we wouldn't have had the switcheroo RS/KS tag-team.

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Originally Posted by Wales-Bales

They should have stuck with LT and then we wouldn't have had the switcheroo RS/KS tag-team.

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No, we'd have had Liz Truss! :hehe:

Nice to see you off the fence on this one. :thumbup:

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Originally Posted by jon1959

No, we'd have had Liz Truss! :hehe:

Nice to see you off the fence on this one. :thumbup:

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Thank Goodness we had the lettuce instead!

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Originally Posted by jon1959

No, we'd have had Liz Truss! :hehe:

Nice to see you off the fence on this one. :thumbup:

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I'm afraid you will just have to watch this one play out.

Tariffs up to 125% on China. 90 day pause on those countries that haven't reciprocated to negotiate. Absolute chaos

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Originally Posted by JamesWales

Tariffs up to 125% on China. 90 day pause on those countries that haven't reciprocated to negotiate. Absolute chaos

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Absolutely shat himself more like. Massive backdown dressed up as a strong decision

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Originally Posted by delmbox

Absolutely shat himself more like. Massive backdown dressed up as a strong decision

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I agree, although I now have an image of his shattered pants.

Attachment 6495

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Originally Posted by jon1959

Attachment 6495

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Congratulations, this one wins the TDS Post of the Day award! :cheerleader:

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Originally Posted by Wales-Bales

Congratulations, this one wins the TDS Post of the Day award! :cheerleader:

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Why, thank you. I am deeply grateful - given the obvious competition! :hehe:

(By the way, sorry for your loss over recent hours!)

I think someone pulled him aside and told him you are killing the USA,but in his own world they are all pleading with him or kissing his arse.

[QUOTE=JamesWales;5583460]

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Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY

Sorry Sludge, I have scrolled up and I can't see what link you are referring to? Maybe you could re-post it?

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https://youtu.be/qfgko7fmmHo?si=Rzxtu-5n4xfprql4

Dirty racist xxxx ( expletive toward Asian people beginning with p ) nonce ....5 minutes in

It gets worse


Racist rabble

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Originally Posted by jeepster

I think someone pulled him aside and told him you are killing the USA,but in his own world they are all pleading with him or kissing his arse.

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The way Trump claimed credit for the US stock market rise was shameless.

It went up because he lost his nerve and surrendered. Which is a good thing - but does not reflect well on the POTUS.

I'm waiting for Gluey to explain how it was always part of the masterplan (as if there is a plan!) and it is 'now or never'!

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Originally Posted by jon1959

The way Trump claimed credit for the US stock market rise was shameless.

It went up because he lost his nerve and surrendered. Which is a good thing - but does not reflect well on the POTUS.

I'm waiting for Gluey to explain how it was always part of the masterplan (as if there is a plan!) and it is 'now or never'!

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The stock market shooting back up to less than it was 5 days ago.

Been off line since yesterday lunchtime, anything happened with Trump’s tariffs?

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

Been off line since yesterday lunchtime, anything happened with Trump’s tariffs?

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��

Trump doesn't even know

His back up team are laughable

What a bunch of Jeremy Hunts

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Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY

��

Trump doesn't even know

His back up team are laughable

What a bunch of Jeremy Hunts

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Nice opportunity for some serious money to be made with insider trading mind.

There's a laughable notion among Gluey and his friends that Trump and co are somehow fighting a far nobler cause than the "Elites", but it all comes down to money in the end and the true Maga believers in the current Administration are as money obsessed as any of them.

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

Been off line since yesterday lunchtime, anything happened with Trump’s tariffs?

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Trump played economic chicken with the world and Trump blinked

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

Nice opportunity for some serious money to be made with insider trading mind.

There's a laughable notion among Gluey and his friends that Trump and co are somehow fighting a far nobler cause than the "Elites", but it all comes down to money in the end and the true Maga believers in the current Administration are as money obsessed as any of them.

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They are all back stabbing snakes

It's like the Apprentice

Everyone slapping each other on the back , creeping up to the boss then knives out when the king is dead

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

Nice opportunity for some serious money to be made with insider trading mind.

There's a laughable notion among Gluey and his friends that Trump and co are somehow fighting a far nobler cause than the "Elites", but it all comes down to money in the end and the true Maga believers in the current Administration are as money obsessed as any of them.

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There was a huge spike in buying volume at 1pm that lasted a few minutes before Trump made his announcement at around 1.15 or 1.20pm. It's not even a question, insider trading happened.

Attachment 6497

The market is now back to where it was a whopping 5 days ago. It's not a recovery, it's a pump and dump. The dump will happen today and tomorrow. Unfortunately, Trump is pumping and dumping with his electorate's pension funds.

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Originally Posted by delmbox

Trump played economic chicken with the world and Trump blinked

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So, it's not another big step along the way to Trump's imminent "checkmate" in the game of four dimensional chess he's been playing then?

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Originally Posted by lardy

There was a huge spike in buying volume at 1pm that lasted a few minutes before Trump made his announcement at around 1.15 or 1.20pm. It's not even a question, insider trading happened.

Attachment 6497

The market is now back to where it was a whopping 5 days ago. It's not a recovery, it's a pump and dump. The dump will happen today and tomorrow. Unfortunately, Trump is pumping and dumping with his electorate's pension funds.

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That was the Fuhrer's way of thanking his loyal rich mates and showing appreciation for their fealty. Heil Donald!

TDS massive not reading the Room again ?
What a surprise

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Originally Posted by Heathblue

TDS massive not reading the Room again ?
What a surprise

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Enlighten us.....

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Originally Posted by Heathblue

TDS massive not reading the Room again ?
What a surprise

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I just saw another one of those cringeworthy occasions where the Trump Cabinet answers media questions in the White House before they have a meeting, is that the room you mean?

The fact of the matter is that Trump has done a convincing Liz Trump impersonation, but, from what I’m seeing this morning, his capitulation is not having the desired effect.

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Originally Posted by Tuerto

Enlighten us.....

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It could be this room, when Trump couldn't resist boasting about how many billions his friends had made on his pump and dump that day.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">After rolling back many of his tariffs Trump had Charles Schwab and others in the Oval Office.<br><br>He pointed out that his guests had made fortunes on the stock market just one hour after his announcement.<br><br>“He made 2.5 billion today and he made $900 million. That’s not bad.” <a href="https://t.co/HdtujIRvLN">pic.twitter.com/HdtujIRvLN</a></p>&mdash; More Perfect Union (@MorePerfectUS) <a href="https://twitter.com/MorePerfectUS/status/1910340290260463771?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>