How did Nigel do ?

Yeah but which one is the prettiest?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rjk

It's kind of obvious to me that if we aren't agreeing to some of the terms that the EU wants then we won't get as favourable terms in the things that we want.otherwise Norway wouldn't be accepting free movement of people or contributing to the EU budget would they?
Farage et Al have sold you a dud, they say you can have your cake and eat it. But it isn't going to happen.

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Once again, we do not know this for a fact, who knows what deals we could strike

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Originally Posted by TH63

:ohwell:

I'm sorry, but please don't tell me you are basing such an important decision due to the "fact" that some Polish bloke brought you your Cousin Mario's Spag Bol??

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No, but it highlighted that maybe we might be getting to a point where we do not need anymore unskilled workers from other countries

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Originally Posted by Richyrich

44% of UK exports go to the EU, while just 8% of what the EU exports goes the other way.

Do you seriously believe we hold the upper hand when it comes to making a trade deal?

With Johnson and Gove doing the deals we would end up with a WTO deal. Then we would be ****ed.

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who knows, it easy to say " Oh lets stay in the EU because this MIGHT happen, or we might not get a good deal "

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Eric Cartman

Here is one more fact.

The GDP of the uk is about 2 trillion.

So crude maths would suggest that if leaving the EU negatively affects the UK economy by even 0.5% then leaving would be a poor economic choice.

Or maybe I can't add up.

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the first part of your post is a fact, the second is just guess work, we do not know if leaving the EU would have a negative effect, we can guess it will, but it could well be a short term thing, once again, who knows

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Originally Posted by Colonel Cærdiffi

http://www.hjmk.co.kr/img/pro08_1.jpg

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My personal favourite was the weld neck type, good for rooting and penetration, slip on flanges are for those
who call themselves welders, but cannot weld.

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Originally Posted by Badly Ironed Shirt

Do you think there are 5.23 million "clearing table" vacancies in the UK for all the Turkish and Albanian people just waiting to come to the UK? Just think, we could end up with a Frankie and Benny on every street corner to provide the jobs - that could be a benefit for you.

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:hehe: spot on fella. :thumbup:

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Originally Posted by chris

:hehe: spot on fella. :thumbup:

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:facepalm:

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Originally Posted by Eric Cartman

I live in a quaint little town about 20 mfiles away from of London. I am petrified that 60 million Brits who live in comparative shit holes are fully entitled to up sticks and move here. Why exactly wouldn't someone living on an estate in Manchester not want to live here instead?

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maybe its down to money :hehe:

you dont think some of these immigrants coming over here , have suitcases stuffed with 20 pound notes do ya.? :hehe:

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Originally Posted by blue matt

when did i say anything about 5.23 million ? ? ?

but nevertheless, them 2 points are undisputed by both sides, we pay more into the EU than we take out AND turkey and Balkan countries are waiting for membership to the EU

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OK - so what were your 2 points again?

1. The UK Government spends more on the EU than it receives. Yes, this is a fact in simplistic terms. However, economists agree that the UK also benefits from being in the EU (i.e. external benefits - more trade as a result of being members of the EU).

So, fact number 1 is a bit more complex than "We put in £350m a day, but only get £327m back".

2. Turkey and Balkan countries are waiting for membership.

The membership is not guaranteed is it? And, if it is, what does it mean? It MIGHT mean that millions of Turkish people flood into the country. But, that's a MIGHT.

You later argue in the thread "Who is to say that the UK can't negotiate a trade deal with no tariffs". Fair point, but that is another MIGHT.

What cannot be denied is that some percentage of the UK's GDP is the result of being a member of the EU. Even Farage admitted it. When you have an economy worth trillions, and that economy is spending a few million quid a day on the EU to get a boost to it's GDP - then those millions really do look like peanuts. Unless you can show me otherwise (i.e. the UK definitely does not benefit from being in the EU).

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Originally Posted by chris

:hehe: spot on fella. :thumbup:

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Um, do you know what point I was making there?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by blue matt

Once again, we do not know this for a fact, who knows what deals we could (i.e. MIGHT) strike



No, but it highlighted that maybe we might <- now you are saying MIGHT be getting to a point where we do not need anymore unskilled workers from other countries



who knows, it easy to say " Oh lets stay in the EU because this MIGHT happen, or we might not get a good deal " - MIGHT



the first part of your post is a fact, the second is just guess work, we do not know if leaving the EU would have a negative effect, we can guess it will, but it could well be a short term thing, once again, who knows

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So leaving the EU MIGHT have a positive effect or it MIGHT have a negative effect. Apologies, but you're just muddying the water.

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Originally Posted by Badly Ironed Shirt

So leaving the EU MIGHT have a positive effect or it MIGHT have a negative effect. Apologies, but you're just muddying the water.

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exactly

both sides can use " mights and maybe's " and it is all the stay have done so far

I have said that the thought of another load of unskilled people coming to the UK doesnt appeal to me, why would it ?? ?

the fact that we pay more into the EU than we take out ( apart from trade deals, but that is another might ) doesnt really make me that happy either

Quote:

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Originally Posted by blue matt

exactly

both sides can use " mights and maybe's " and it is all the stay have done so far

I have said that the thought of another load of unskilled people coming to the UK doesnt appeal to me, why would it ?? ?

the fact that we pay more into the EU than we take out ( apart from trade deals, but that is another might ) doesnt really make me that happy either

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That is all the LEAVE side have done - "Maybes" and scaremongering. That is all BOTH sides have done.

Who is to say that there will be another load of unskilled workers? There MIGHT be, there MIGHT not be. That's not a fact.

Every economist that has spoken on the referendum (from either side) say that being in the EU boosts the economy and that boost is currently GREATER than the net contribution the UK makes. Why would that make you unhappy?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Badly Ironed Shirt

Who is to say that there will be another load of unskilled workers? There MIGHT be, there MIGHT not be. That's not a fact.

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Oh come of it, you dont believe thats just a MIGHT, Mr Unskilled Turk or Albanian will be over here for a better life ( or just more money, look at the average wages, the UK will pay per week what a Albanian will earn per month ) not them all granted, but we all know a fair number will come, look at The History with the other Eastern European workers

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Badly Ironed Shirt

Every economist that has spoken on the referendum (from either side) say that being in the EU boosts the economy and that boost is currently GREATER than the net contribution the UK makes. Why would that make you unhappy?

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but they havent said if its a long or a short term thing ( that is another might or maybe ) , I have read we could be in for 3 - 5 years of hard times till things settle down and new trade agreements are made, which then will mean the county will be better of with not paying the money into the EU in the long term

3 to 5 years of hard times for a better future, isnt that was the Tories said at the last general election and people voted for that

Simple fact of the matter is, we wont get a decent trade deal unless we accept the free movement of people with Europe. So whats the point in leaving?

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Originally Posted by blue matt

Oh come of it, you dont believe thats just a MIGHT, Mr Unskilled Turk or Albanian will be over here for a better life ( or just more money, look at the average wages, the UK will pay per week what a Albanian will earn per month ) not them all granted, but we all know a fair number will come, look at The History with the other Eastern European workers

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We all know a fair number will come? That is, of course, providing they join the EU. They MIGHT not. There are not an infinite number of jobs to fill.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by blue matt

but they havent said if its a long or a short term thing ( that is another might or maybe ) , I have read we could be in for 3 - 5 years of hard times till things settle down and new trade agreements are made, which then will mean the county will be better of with not paying the money into the EU in the long term

3 to 5 years of hard times for a better future, isnt that was the Tories said at the last general election and people voted for that

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Oh, so after 5 years things MIGHT be really rosy if we leave. Or they MIGHT not be. I'm glad we're working with definite scenarios now.

As nobody seems to have mentioned it there is also a looming crisis in a few years time when all migrants entering the EU will be entitled to receive EU passports entitling them to eventually settle in the UK. It might take between 5 and 8 years but, given the referendum is a once in a generation opportunity, future implications need to be taken into account.

On the trade question there are many countries around the World that have trade deals with the EU without having free movement arrangements.

I'm still undecided but the longer this issue goes on the more inclined I am to vote OUT but accept there are short term dangers to the economy if we decide to REMAIN.

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Originally Posted by Vindec

As nobody seems to have mentioned it there is also a looming crisis in a few years time when all migrants entering the EU will be entitled to receive EU passports entitling them to eventually settle in the UK. It might take between 5 and 8 years but, given the referendum is a once in a generation opportunity, future implications need to be taken into account.

On the trade question there are many countries around the World that have trade deals with the EU without having free movement arrangements.

I'm still undecided but the longer this issue goes on the more inclined I am to vote OUT but accept there are short term dangers to the economy if we decide to REMAIN.

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If they're in the UK as a longterm resident, they don't get this. Also, we don't have the same free movement of non-EU nationals who have been in an EU country long enough to get citizenship that other EU countries do. So it's not all migrants and even then, the UK is exempt.

And in most other countries, it's not automatically granted on time alone. They will also have to have a clean criminal record, show keenness to integrate or whatever. Are there any EU countries which give passports after X years with no other requirement?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Badly Ironed Shirt

We all know a fair number will come? That is, of course, providing they join the EU. They MIGHT not. There are not an infinite number of jobs to fill.




Oh, so after 5 years things MIGHT be really rosy if we leave. Or they MIGHT not be. I'm glad we're working with definite scenarios now.

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the point is, we have no " definite scenarios ", the stay campaign and the economists ( you speak of ) have none either, we can look at likely scenarios and if The turks and Albanians join we know a fair number will head over here for better paid jobs, end up living 6 to a flat ( like the poles do )

Quote:

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Originally Posted by blue matt

the point is, we have no " definite scenarios ", the stay campaign and the economists ( you speak of ) have none either, we can look at likely scenarios and if The turks and Albanians join we know a fair number will head over here for better paid jobs, end up living 6 to a flat ( like the poles do )

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But you said the LEAVE campaign had facts, and the REMAIN campaign had "ifs, mights and maybes". All I am saying is that both sides are relying on ifs, mights and maybes. Which is what you say above. "If" the Turkish and Albanians join, we know (well, theorise) that a "fair" (5, 50, 500, 5000, 50000, 500000, 5000000?) number will head over here for better paid jobs.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lardy

If they're in the UK as a longterm resident, they don't get this. Also, we don't have the same free movement of non-EU nationals who have been in an EU country long enough to get citizenship that other EU countries do. So it's not all migrants and even then, the UK is exempt.

And in most other countries, it's not automatically granted on time alone. They will also have to have a clean criminal record, show keenness to integrate or whatever. Are there any EU countries which give passports after X years with no other requirement?

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My post was related to the hundreds of thousands entering the EU from Syria and beyond. Once they qualify for a EU passport through residency in say Germany they can enter and live in any EU country including the UK. This has nothing to do with the Schengen agreement meaning the UK are as likely to be affected as any other EU country. An EU passport granted in any EU country will entitle any migrant to settle anywhere in the EU including the UK.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by blue matt

the point is, we have no " definite scenarios ", the stay campaign and the economists ( you speak of ) have none either, we can look at likely scenarios and if The turks and Albanians join we know a fair number will head over here for better paid jobs, end up living 6 to a flat ( like the poles do )

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So basically nobody's got a fecking clue what will be the effect if we stay or leave, but we're willing to stake our future and our children's future on black and hope the roulette ball doesn't land in red.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Vindec

My post was related to the hundreds of thousands entering the EU from Syria and beyond. Once they qualify for a EU passport through residency in say Germany they can enter and live in any EU country including the UK. This has nothing to do with the Schengen agreement meaning the UK are as likely to be affected as any other EU country. An EU passport granted in any EU country will entitle any migrant to settle anywhere in the EU including the UK.

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You are quite correct, it's nothing to do with Schengen. It's do with the 2003 EU Directive on the status of non-EU nationals who are long-term residents, which the UK (and Ireland) is exempt from.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lardy

You are quite correct, it's nothing to do with Schengen. It's do with the 2003 EU Directive on the status of non-EU nationals who are long-term residents, which the UK (and Ireland) is exempt from.

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So are you saying that a migrant who qualifies and obtains an EU passport in another Member State cannot reside here?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Vindec

So are you saying that a migrant who qualifies and obtains an EU passport in another Member State cannot reside here?

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No, of course I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm saying the UK is not forced to accept them.

Interestingly enough, that directive is seen as a bit of a failure anyway because the uptake was so low. In the first few years, Germany and France had a couple of thousand each.


EDIT: My source on the last stat.

https://web.archive.org/web/20151208...ence-directive

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lardy

No, of course I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm saying the UK is not forced to accept them.

Interestingly enough, that directive is seen as a bit of a failure anyway because the uptake was so low. In the first few years, Germany and France had a couple of thousand each.


EDIT: My source on the last stat.

https://web.archive.org/web/20151208...ence-directive

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So when the EU prevents us from deporting EU criminals the Directive states that we can deport those who are legitimately here with a bona fide passport? That runs completely counter to the aim of the EU which is that all EU citizens should be treated equally. Of course any migrant who is granted an EU passport becomes an EU citizen so the prospect of deportation is absolutely zilch.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Vindec

So when the EU prevents us from deporting EU criminals the Directive states that we can deport those who are legitimately here with a bona fide passport? That runs completely counter to the aim of the EU which is that all EU citizens should be treated equally. Of course any migrant who is granted an EU passport becomes an EU citizen so the prospect of deportation is absolutely zilch.

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Further to the above:

I disagree that the Directive does what you think if my reading is correct.

The Directive 2003/109/EC on EU long-term residence aims to secure a common EU residence status for long-term residents, including uniform rights which are as close as possible to those enjoyed by EU citizens and, under certain conditions, the right to reside in other Member States. The share of immigrants who acquired permanent or long-term residence was recently agreed by EU Member States as a Core Indicator of Integration Outcomes, since active citizenship supports their integration, participation in the democratic process, and sense of belonging. In terms of its impact on integration, long-term residence enables third-country nationals to participate more in many areas of life on an equal legal footing with nationals and EU citizens.

Thus those with EU passports can in general reside anywhere in the EU including migrants granted EU passports.

Are you missing the bit where the uk is exempt?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lardy

Are you missing the bit where the uk is exempt?

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There is an interesting article here which seems to muddy the waters.

http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/...vement-rights/

The practicalities of deporting someone with an EU passport from the UK to another Member State is however worrying given that we cannot even deport criminals.

Whose waters is that muddying? It appears to back up what I've said in the thread.

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Originally Posted by blue matt

for me, i have seen facts, we pay more into the EU that we get back, thats accepted by both sides, even if it is 10% of the 350 million per week, its still better being spent in the UK, one of the " fact checker sites -- fullfact.org " i read said " in In 2015 we paid in £8.5 billion more than we got back, or £23 million a day. " now surely this cannot be right

Turkey and a few Balkan countries are awaiting membership of the EU, I wonder what they will do ? ? ? Hmmmm stay in Albania earning 350 euro's a MONTH or head over to the UK and earn that in 1 week clearing tables somewhere, oh and then jump for joy when the goverment top up my wages because i have 2 children in school ( for free ) with a couple of hundred pounds a month in child benefit and family tax credit

I recently posted about my trip to franky and benny's and the eastern Europeans ( polish i guess )

Now i have nothing against these, i bet if i was born Albanian i would be moving my family over here for a better life, BUT this will stretch our public services even more, schools, health care etc etc

now them 2 above are facts, with that in mind and with the lack of other facts and loads of " what if's " and " maybe's " i am diffidently leaning towards Leave


ref the trade thing again, we Import more than we export ( another accepted fact ) and will these EU countries risk us putting import tariffs on everything ? ? No the likely situation will be a blanket 0 % from all sides, of course this isnt a fact, but it would be the only sensible outcome

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Last I checked Wales got far more money back than we put in....

Quote:

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Originally Posted by tommy31

Last I checked Wales got far more money back than we put in....

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Essentially all of the uk does when you include the effect of trade agreements.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rjk

Essentially all of the uk does when you include the effect of trade agreements.

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I agree, but if we are talking raw numbers, as blue Matt is, then surely he can't argue that Wales is a net beneficiary, and thus by his logic we should stay in?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Richyrich

Simple fact of the matter is, we wont get a decent trade deal unless we accept the free movement of people with Europe. So whats the point in leaving?

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we dont need to be in the eu to trade with the rest of europe . :hehe:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by chris

we dont need to be in the eu to trade with the rest of europe . :hehe:

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The font of all knowledge has spoken.

No need for a referendum - just let Chris decide.

P.s :hehe::thumbup:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dr Lecter

The font of all knowledge has spoken.

No need for a referendum - just let Chris decide.

P.s :hehe::thumbup:

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me and my shadow, amongst the usual suspects. :hehe:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dr Lecter

The font of all knowledge has spoken.

No need for a referendum - just let Chris decide.

P.s :hehe::thumbup:

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:facepalm::puke:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rjk

Essentially all of the uk does when you include the effect of trade agreements.

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BUT that assumes we cannot strike a new trade agreement, which we know is not going to happen

It also means the UK can strike trade agreements with others countries, The US, China etc etc

which might outweigh what we lose

Quote:

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Originally Posted by tommy31

I agree, but if we are talking raw numbers, as blue Matt is, then surely he can't argue that Wales is a net beneficiary, and thus by his logic we should stay in?

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agreed, same as Cornwall and Scotland i believe

Afraid to say i no longer live in Wales, thus is doesnt really help my vote

Quote:

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Originally Posted by blue matt

BUT that assumes we cannot strike a new trade agreement, which we know is not going to happen

It also means the UK can strike trade agreements with others countries, The US, China etc etc

which might outweigh what we lose

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No, it isn't assuming that at all. It is saying that the whole of the UK benefits financially from being in the EU - Farage conceded as much recently.

The US President recently said that the UK would be at the back of the queue when it came to new Trade Agreements. That's not a "MIGHT", but a fact.

How could any future trade deal look? I think the LEAVE camp need to tell us this.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by blue matt

BUT that assumes we cannot strike a new trade agreement, which we know is not going to happen

It also means the UK can strike trade agreements with others countries, The US, China etc etc

which might outweigh what we lose

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http://news.cbi.org.uk/reports/our-g...utweigh-costs/

"A CBI literature review suggests that the net benefit of EU membership to the UK could be in the region of 4-5% of GDP or £62bn-£78bn a year – roughly the economies of the North East and Northern Ireland taken together."
"71% of CBI member businesses report that the UK’s membership of the EU has had an overall positive impact on their business, "
"The UK’s net contribution to the EU budget is around €7.3bn, or 0.4% of GDP. As a comparison that’s around a quarter of what the UK spends on the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, and less than an eighth of the UK’s defence spend. The £116 per person net contribution is less than that from Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Germany and the Netherlands."

Quote:

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Originally Posted by chris

me and my shadow, amongst the usual suspects. :hehe:

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Don't worry chris, there will be plenty of time for 'I told you so' :hehe: