Senedd election prediction

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07-05-21, 11:14
Feedback

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wozza16

About 19,000.

Welsh Labour was 25,000 in 2018, this would almost certainly dropped since then. YesCymru are closing in fast, considering it was only set up 6 years ago and was 2,000 this time last year. Boris is seeing to that :wales:

so more people watch the blue brazil than want Welsh independence...
07-05-21, 11:23
Rjk

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by Feedback

so more people watch the blue brazil than want Welsh independence...

not quite.
plenty more people would vote for Welsh independence than are members of Yes Cymru
07-05-21, 11:59
Feedback

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rjk

not quite.
plenty more people would vote for Welsh independence than are members of Yes Cymru

you suck the joy out of everything
07-05-21, 12:01
SLUDGE FACTORY

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by surge

Btw, one of the Abolish lot apparently used to be pastor of the cultist, evangelical church in Cwmbran. He's literally been preying on vulnerable people for the past decade and could end up.in the Senedd.

What a complete and utter cult
07-05-21, 12:03
SLUDGE FACTORY

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rjk

not quite.
plenty more people would vote for Welsh independence than are members of Yes Cymru

its all hot air at the moment

The turnout to vote for a Welsh parliament ?
Pathetic

The margin of yes v no ?

Wafer thin
07-05-21, 12:06
surge

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY

its all hot air at the moment

The turnout to vote for a Welsh parliament ?
Pathetic

The margin of yes v no ?

Wafer thin

Let's see what happens at next Senedd elections after Tories win in Westminster again and continue to attack devolution. That's the real test for independence voters.
07-05-21, 12:12
Rjk

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by surge

Let's see what happens at next Senedd elections after Tories win in Westminster again and continue to attack devolution. That's the real test for independence voters.

The real real test for devolution will be when Ireland is unified and Scotland has left the union.
Right now it's just about building a base of support - shooting the bolt too early would be a bad idea
07-05-21, 12:27
The Bloop

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by surge

Btw, one of the Abolish lot apparently used to be pastor of the cultist, evangelical church in Cwmbran. He's literally been preying on vulnerable people for the past decade and could end up.in the Senedd.

Wasn't there a thread or 2 on here a few years ago, with the poster trying to invite or recruit people to attend a few evangelical meetings in Cwmbran?
07-05-21, 12:51
surge

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bloop

Wasn't there a thread or 2 on here a few years ago, with the poster trying to invite or recruit people to attend a few evangelical meetings in Cwmbran?

Yeah, I found it quite creepy when looking at their videos. I believe they were promising to heal people.

Regarding independence, I agree that next five years should be about building support and resources that make it possible instead of setting a date to ask the question. People will be quick to tell you why it could never work so if you work on answers to that either people still say no and Wales is a better nation for work done or people say yes and better chance of success.
07-05-21, 13:07
surge

Re: Senedd election prediction

Montgomeryshire: Tory hold with increase in vote share of +6.3.

Tories and Reform vote share: 50.3% (of which 48.1% is Tory).
Plaid, Lib Dem and Labour vote share: 49%.

I know it doesn't work like that but here we go again!
07-05-21, 13:10
Rjk

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by surge

Montgomeryshire: Tory hold with increase in vote share of +6.3.

Tories and Reform vote share: 50.3% (of which 48.1% is Tory).
Plaid, Lib Dem and Labour vote share: 49%.

I know it doesn't work like that but here we go again!

Plaid and Labour both increased their vote share, and I don't think anyone was expecting Montgomeryshire to change hands.
07-05-21, 13:16
xsnaggle

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rjk

Plaid and Labour both increased their vote share, and I don't think anyone was expecting Montgomeryshire to change hands.

Safe seat but I have no idea how things will look if the percentage holds across the board.
07-05-21, 13:33
surge

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rjk

Plaid and Labour both increased their vote share, and I don't think anyone was expecting Montgomeryshire to change hands.

But in a safe Tory seat only 50.3% of voters went for a party representative of the right.
07-05-21, 13:47
xsnaggle

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by surge

But in a safe Tory seat only 50.3% of voters went for a party representative of the right.

with the man doubling his majority you have to admit you're clutching at straws there surge. I hope you have lots of straws in that case. :hehe:
07-05-21, 13:49
the other bob wilson

Re: Senedd election prediction

Just driven into Treorchy listening to Radio Wales where they’re saying it looks like Plaid are going to lose Rhondda and there was a former AM from that party saying that they may not be going to do as well as hoped - one opinion expressed was that Labour general election voters who vote for Plaid in Assembly elections are backing Labour this time to try and keep the Torys out.
07-05-21, 13:51
City123

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

Just driven into Treorchy listening to Radio Wales where they’re saying it looks like Plaid are going to lose Rhondda and there was a former AM from that party saying that they may not be going to do as well as hoped - one opinion expressed was that Labour general election voters who vote for Plaid in Assembly elections are backing Labour this time to try and keep the Torys out.

It would be a huge shame to lose Leanne Wood
07-05-21, 13:55
the other bob wilson

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by City123

It would be a huge shame to lose Leanne Wood

Agreed.
07-05-21, 14:12
surge

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by xsnaggle

with the man doubling his majority you have to admit you're clutching at straws there surge. I hope you have lots of straws in that case. :hehe:

Think you think I'm making a different point (Tories shouldn't have won) to one I was trying to make (look at our bizarre voting system and how it doesn't effectively represent people) but hey-ho.
07-05-21, 14:21
cardiff55

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

Agreed.

Decent person with the wrong party. But that's what she believes in so good luck to her. I dot hope Labour takes it back though.
07-05-21, 14:34
Former Labour leader

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

Agreed.

I predicted yesterday Labour would win Rhondda(bit of inside info). Hope you all lumped on it.
Labour candidate is actually well thought of and will not disappoint.
07-05-21, 15:14
Rjk

Re: Senedd election prediction

Tories take Clwyd from Labour in a very tight contest
07-05-21, 15:38
cityhammer

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by City123

It would be a huge shame to lose Leanne Wood

can she be elected on the regional list? Or was it all or nothing on the constituency poll?
07-05-21, 15:55
the other bob wilson

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by cityhammer

can she be elected on the regional list? Or was it all or nothing on the constituency poll?

Pretty sure she wasn’t on the regional list.
07-05-21, 15:55
City123

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by cityhammer

can she be elected on the regional list? Or was it all or nothing on the constituency poll?

She's not on the list
07-05-21, 16:13
bigjoe

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by surge

He's a cautious, unsexy nerd. We live in a time (have we always?) where a strong leader is usually preferred but perhaps covid is the one occasion where caution and nerdish behaviour is admired.

Cometh the hour cometh the man. Drakeford is the Welsh Winston Churchill.
07-05-21, 16:24
City123

Re: Senedd election prediction

Lib Dems and UKIP getting a right kicking, seem to be in the hundreds in most seats
07-05-21, 16:26
surge

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by City123

She's not on the list

Any reason for that? It's really disappointing news someone like her is now missing whereas we can expect some Abolish louts to get in.
07-05-21, 16:29
City123

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by surge

Any reason for that? It's really disappointing news someone like her is now missing whereas we can expect some Abolish cretins to get in.

I don't know, its strange as well because Plaid weren't particularly confident of holding the seat going in

All the smaller parties seem to be getting a kicking, Labour, Tories & Plaid well ahead of the rest atm. Hopefully that means the pre election Abolish hype was misplaced
07-05-21, 16:36
The Bloop

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by City123

I don't know, its strange as well because Plaid weren't particularly confident of holding the seat going in

All the smaller parties seem to be getting a kicking, Labour, Tories & Plaid well ahead of the rest atm. Hopefully that means the pre election Abolish hype was misplaced

I agree itll be a shame if shes not in the Sennedd. Plaid dont look like they're going to gain any constituency seats so will hope of increasing their representation by gaining some regional seats from UKIP.
07-05-21, 16:41
City123

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bloop

I agree itll be a shame if shes not in the Sennedd. Plaid dont look like they're going to gain any constituency seats so will hope of increasing their representation by gaining some regional seats from UKIP.

Its a strange one though. The polls immediately before the election looked pretty bad for Plaid but they're picking up votes. Up 1,200 in West Carmarthen, up 200 Clwyd South, up 2,200 in Preseii, up 2,200 in Wrexham, up 2,000 in Montgomery, up 1,000 in Gower

Disappointing results in Aberconwy & Caerphilly for them though
07-05-21, 16:53
the other bob wilson

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rjk

Tories take Clwyd from Labour in a very tight contest

That’s the only one they took in their targeted North Wales Labour seats though it seems.
07-05-21, 16:54
cityhammer

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by City123

She's not on the list

could she have been a candidate and on regional list tho? I don’t understand how this crazy system works.
07-05-21, 17:02
Rjk

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

That’s the only one they took in their targeted North Wales Labour seats though it seems.

yes they would have been hoping for a lot more than this!
07-05-21, 17:03
City123

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by cityhammer

could she have been a candidate and on regional list tho? I don’t understand how this crazy system works.

Yes, she was a constituency candidate and on the list last time. For some reason she isn't on it this time
07-05-21, 18:05
surge

Re: Senedd election prediction

Mark Reckless (too many drinks in the Westminster bar to vote on a budget when he was an MP) got 3.3% of the vote. I don't swear often on here but he's an absolute prick.
07-05-21, 18:37
tforturton

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by City123

It would be a huge shame to lose Leanne Wood

Seriously? Plaid need to do better, but Leanne Wood wasn't the answer.
07-05-21, 18:38
Eric the Half a Bee

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY

cobblers

Are you shoe-r?
07-05-21, 19:01
Divine Wright

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by tforturton

Seriously? Plaid need to do better, but Leanne Wood wasn't the answer.

The answer IS probably someone at the head of the party from the Valleys who seems credible.

As the only real left-wing alternative in Wales, Plaid have to do something to make up some ground in South East Wales.

I think a lot of people vote Labour just because they can't stand the Tories. I voted Plaid in West Carmarthen and part of me thinks it might have been wiser to vote labour , considering the margins.
07-05-21, 19:03
Rjk

Re: Senedd election prediction

seems like a good night for labour
07-05-21, 19:05
The Bloop

Re: Senedd election prediction

Quote:

Originally Posted by surge

Mark Reckless (too many drinks in the Westminster bar to vote on a budget when he was an MP) got 3.3% of the vote. I don't swear often on here but he's an absolute prick.

I think I saw aswell that Neil Hamilton got less than 1000 votes. Hope that's the end of him too.

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