Riiight, this is what I was after, I thought there might be something. Thank you :xmasthumbup:
Your second question is illogical. Allowing outdoor sporting events to resume was not a ploy to try to get the covid rate down, it was a response to falling Covid rates but also the fact that all the evidence indicated that risks at outdoor events were greatly reduced. This has not changed. The point is that there is little, if any, evidence that holding outdoor sporting events adds to Covid rates or risks. Therefore stopping outdoor events whilst allowing pubs, restaurants, theatres, cinemas etc etc to remain open is stupid in the extreme. In any event, current hospitalisation rates, deaths, intensive care bed occupation rates are actually falling, so all this is pure guesswork by Drakeford and his cronies. With regard to ‘properly run’, you know exactly what I mean and it would be simple to add the need have had a booster dose to get access to stadiums.
I'm gutted about the new restrictions but a lot of you referring to "outdoor events" seem to be pretending that you just click your fingers and are transported to your seat. The concourse is an absolute Covid factory, let alone the queues to get out and the toilets
Masks are supposed to be worn in all those areas already. Who’s fault is it if some people don't bother ? This can be more strictly enforced if necessary. Why should people who follow the ground and government regulations be penalised over the actions of those that cant be bothered. Anyone found not complying should be ejected from the stadium. Where is the evidence anyway that mass spreading of Covid is occurring at football stadiums.
Has there been an announcement on hospitality in Wales next wee? I must have missed that. I thought there was a meeting today and an announcement to follow.
As for evidence of outdoor events adding to the spread just look at what scientists thought about Cheltenham last year and Liverpools Champions league game. There isn't that much evidence subsequently as fans weren't allowed in. Do you think they should be to help build up a basket of evidence?
We had a decent overall record during the lockdown seasons.
Perhaps us supporters being locked out of the CCS maybe a blessing considering how bad things have been so far this season.
Next announcement is on Wednesday afternoon. I hope our itchy fingered 'leaders' make a more sensible judgement and allow life to carry on with common sense and not knee jerk closures.
This articles from the 'i' is quite positive
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/ne...s-week-1364554
New restrictions in England could be avoided if hospital admissions in London do not soar this week
There are signs that Omicron cases in the capital and across the UK could be plateauing – but remain at a high level
Fresh restrictions in England after Christmas could be avoided if hospital admissions in London stay below 400 a day by the end of this week, i understands.
Ministers and scientific advisers are watching closely the number of Covid patients admitted to hospitals in the capital, as it is the leading edge of the Omicron wave and will provide some of the first real-world data on whether the variant is more severe in the UK.
The question of severity is the missing piece of the Omicron jigsaw, and Boris Johnson has been unable to make a decision about further restrictions in England without it.
The latest figure for London admissions, from last Sunday 19 December is 245, and while the daily figure is rising, it has not increased as rapidly as Covid cases in London in the past two weeks.
While the figure of 400 is not a hard and fast threshold, it will provide a good guide of whether the huge scale of Omicron cases, above 80,000 in England for the past week, will translate into hospital admissions and put severe pressure on the NHS throughout January.
If London admissions remain below 400, it could mean no legally enforced restrictions are needed after Christmas, although there could be tougher guidance announced by the Prime Minister on 27 December.
Hospital admissions in London are not the only metric being used to assess the severity of Omicron, but is a key measure.
Separately, the UK Health Security Agency will produce early data on severity, analysing vaccination status and age of people admitted to hospital with the Omicron variant, which is also expected before Christmas Eve.
However the situation is still fluid, and ministers stress that all options remain in reserve if hospitals come under serious pressure over the New Year.
New figures published by the government’s coronavirus dashboard shows how London continues to be the epicentre of the Omicron wave.
In the seven-day period up to 16 December, there were 131,061 cases in the capital, with 1455.8 cases per 100,000 people.
But some boroughs are continuing to show the highest case rates of the pandemic for younger age groups, with one in 16 people aged 25 to 29 testing positive in the week to 16 December, or 6393.5 cases per 100,000.
While hospital admissions lag cases by two to three weeks, cases in the capital started to rise rapidly at the start of December, meaning that uptick would be felt in covid wards by now.
There are currently 1,904 people with covid in London hospitals, compared to 3,367 this time a year ago.
Latest figures for the UK – including in London, which in the past week has seen the highest case rates of anywhere in the UK since the pandemic began – show signs that the Omicron wave could be plateauing.
Analysis by the UK Health Security Agency showed that, following a rapid rise in the past fortnight, the increase in cases and suspected cases of Omicron is slowing in the capital.
And across the UK daily reported cases were around 90,000 for the sixth day running – suggesting that, while infections are at a new higher level, they are not rising beyond that.
Glad to see Drakeford has at least seen sense as far as junior and lower level sport is concerned.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/...s-ban-22510903
From 26 Dec all pubs will be back to social distancing, rule of 6, masks whilst standing (You apparently cannot get covid sitting down) table service only. Publicans have already been warned off for it. And I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for him to change these decisions if the huge spike in cases hospitalisations and deaths doesn't materialise, that would be admitting he was wrong, and he is incapable of being wrong.
What is the point of having a ground regulation, with a penalty of ejection from the ground for non compliance, if it isn't going to be enforced. If that was the way to get games back on again, then of course it can be done. The are security companies available with the type of staff who would be more than happy to deal with it. A better question might be why are the maskless City fans not complying in the first place. Think they are above the rules and don’t give a toss perhaps ?
At Cheltenham racing and Liverpools Champions League game nobody was vaccinated, nobody was wearing masks, there was no segregation and little if anything was known about the virus and how it spread. All subsequent evidence, as Drakeford admitted yesterday, is that the vast majority of virus spread is indoors and amongst families/friends and outdoor spread is greatly reduced. But then, you knew all that already didnt you.
Since the Brexit referendum I'm convinced that Drakeford believes he heads a 'benevolent autocracy' rather than a ' democracy'. At that time the population of Wales voted to leave by a reasonable majority Did he support our decision.?..no. He told us we were wrong.
I'm seeing that same autocratic attitude again with Covid rules and regulations. He says the Senedd follows the science, and in Wales there is a technical advisory group that gives such advice. Most of their findings are openly published but nothing has been since 10th December.
So a lot of decisions by him having a profound influence on our lives and the backup evidence, if there is any, is being kept from us.
Quite concerning.
The point is that there is no evidence to suggest it will happen, so he appears to be restricting peoples freedoms and companies incomes on his opinion. Everything at the moment is suggesting that Omicron is milder, that less people are being hospitalised and less people are dying.
Another point that the people shouting for more restrictions don't mention is the difference between the number of people who have to go into hospital because of covid (Omicron) and the number of people who go in for other reasons and are then found to have it. Those people would perhaps have recovered without any need for hospitalisation but because they are in for something else they are used to inflate the apparent hospitalisation numbers caused by the virus. All very scientific.
SA experts have been telling us most of that since Omicron arrived, yet we have still descended into hysteria ( mainly in the press )
the doubling every 2.5 days appears to not be happening, last week it hit 90k new cases, we should be on 360k new cases now ( and should have been over 1/2mill on Christmas Day ), yesterday it hit 100k
Sorry to bang on but.... with your point about if the spike doesn't materialise it can only be a good thing, something you may consider is that if/when these rules are imposed, if the spike doesn't materialise they Doom and Gloomers will try to say that it only didn't materialise because of the restrictions, whether that is in fact right or wrong, and then use that as an excuse to impose more restrictions and seek to impact on peoples freedoms in the future.
Some folk actually like being controlled and told what to do, it makes their lives easier.
If the spike in hospitalisation doesn't materialise then it will be a combination of several factors, one of which will be the restrictions. Others being, for example, more data becoming available about Omicron being fed into the models, better treatments (including anti-virals for the most vulnerable) and more people receiving the booster vaccine(remember it doesn't start to take effect about 2 weeks after administration).
Interesting but a bit technical read - The Imperial College study - confirming to me that Drakeford and his Government has ‘jumped the gun’ and got this wrong.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-globa...erity-omicron/
Probably not at this point since the spike in cases would happen a few days after the spike in infections.
However, if we find out later that the restrictions were introduced after the spike in infections and there isn't a subsequent spike in hospitalisations, I don't really see how you could attribute that to the restrictions.
I'm guessing that the spike in infections will occur on Christmas Day.
If the spike doesn't materialise it MAY be a combination, but maybe it isn't going to materialise anyway (Spike in hospitalisations and deaths that is)
More data becoming available will not be a factor in the spike not occurring, data and modelling doesn't make it happen. All new data will do is demonstrate that the original doom mongering was right or wrong, not affect the real world.
The booster vaccine is effective after 7 days apparently, but more important is that the T cell response to the virus holds up very well in the body and fights the virus very well. But this part of the vaccines and peoples immune systems was not included in the Imperial College modelling, which indicates the modelling is flawed anyway. (And it is other scientists saying that, not me :xmashehe:)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/athletics/59747123
Welsh Athletics concerns as Parkrun cancels events in Wales
Went for a few drinks in London last Thursday. Sat outside around a few tables.
6 of the 8 now all got it. Me and one other waiting for it to kick in just as the dish washer needs loading on the 25th
If Mick was still manager we could have slipped under the radar .
The football wasnt sport , it was torture.
First para: Do you think a number that just about fits into the Millennium Stadium out of a whole country is a reasonable majority?
He seems to be right on this one. What are the benefits?
Second para: As I have previously said, with forecasts as they are (and sport/theatres and pubs closing on their on accord though illness) isn’t it better to be cautious than cross your fingers. This is public health, not a bet on a horse.