Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

Jesus christ how many times do I have to say this.
Deaths are above average now but you need to give time to see if the numbers in the same period going forward are down by the same amount. Only then will you know the real affect of the virus over and above the average.
It's like giving the result of a football match at half time!!
It's not about anything but simple mathematics.

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Elsewhere people like TWGL1 are arguing that the impact of the lockdown could cause nearly 200k premature deaths over the medium to long term. Bit distortive for your simple mathematics if this comes to pass. All we may be left with is the Office of National Statistics calculating 150k excess deaths in the UK from April 2020 and a remarkable coincidence of 175k deaths of people with covid during the same period.

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Originally Posted by cyril evans awaydays

Elsewhere people like TWGL1 are arguing that the impact of the lockdown could cause nearly 200k premature deaths over the medium to long term. Bit distortive for your simple mathematics if this comes to pass. All we may be left with is the Office of National Statistics calculating 150k excess deaths in the UK from April 2020 and a remarkable coincidence of 175k deaths of people with covid during the same period.

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I'm not arguing against any of that but until you see the balance you cannot reach an answer. It wouldn't matter if the number was 10 1,000 or 1,000,000, it would still be the same need to see both sides to make a determination.

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

I'm not arguing against any of that but until you see the balance you cannot reach an answer. It wouldn't matter if the number was 10 1,000 or 1,000,000, it would still be the same need to see both sides to make a determination.

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are you saying that it wouldn't matter if 1000000 people died if they would have died 2 years later anyway?

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Originally Posted by jon1959

If I understand you correctly, I don't understand you.

Everyone dies - most of us are agreed on that. Everyone dies just once - also generally agreed (not sure about Truthpaste!)

When a pandemic hits the excess death figures must be balanced at a later date by lower than normal death figures (allowing for the graph to adjust for changes to life expectancy etc). The impact of the pandemic when it comes to deaths is premature deaths.

I have no problem with the Covid death figures - where the measure is people who have died solely due to Covid (even then the actual cause of death will not be the virus) and those for whom underlying health factors were triggered by the virus bringing on severe illness and death that wouldn't have happened at that time.

Where excess deaths gets a bit difficult is where the 'collatoral damage' in a stressed health service leads to more deaths of people where the cause had nothing to do with Covid. Even then it is not a simple case of saying that Covid prevention measures and/or swamped hospitals caused those non-Covid deaths - in those cases where the Covid prevention measures didn't actually protect those vulnerable people.

As other posters have said the government could take other action to mitigate the impact - more/less restrictions, clearer advice and information, added screening capacity, having a pandemic emergency plan that was up to date and properly resourced, different budget choices.

I don't think there is any readily available data set for the UK that can separate those strands out. In the absence of that we get more circular arguments that go nowhere.

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This seems about right. The time dimension is critical here. Excess deaths are time specific. And excess deaths this period means a reduced number of expected deaths next period.

There are three scenarios to compare excess deaths for the pandemic:

1. Actuality - pandemic, mitigation
2. Counter factual 1 - no pandemic
3. Counter factual 2 - pandemic, no mitigation

My guess is we'll eventually find excess deaths in the three scenarios will run 3 > 1 > 2.

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Originally Posted by Rjk

are you saying that it wouldn't matter if 1000000 people died if they would have died 2 years later anyway?

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I thought someone would pick on that. you know very well I didn't mean that you're just being an arse.
it's not about people, the people are important. its just about the numbers and thenumber are random to illustrate that.

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Originally Posted by Rjk

are you saying that it wouldn't matter if 1000000 people died if they would have died 2 years later anyway?

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I thought someone would pick on that. you know very well I didn't mean that you're just being an arse.
it's not about people, the people are important. Its just about the numbers and the numbers are random to illustrate that. but you knew that didn't you. I could have used 1, 5 and 10. What would you have picked on then?

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

I thought someone would pick on that. you know very well I didn't mean that you're just being an arse.
it's not about people, the people are important. Its just about the numbers and the numbers are random to illustrate that. but you knew that didn't you. I could have used 1, 5 and 10. What would you have picked on then?

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What happened in those 7 minutes between 02:17 and 02:24 that made you decide you wanted to add a bit of spice to the message?

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

Jesus christ how many times do I have to say this. Deaths are above average now but you need to give time to see if the numbers in the same period going forward are down by the same amount. Only then will you know the real affect of the virus over and above the average.

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Do you think there's a possibility, just a chance, that the death figures in previous years may give us an indication of the effect of the virus?

Here are the totals for the numbers of deaths in England and Wales for 2010 to 2020 (the figure for 2021 isn't available yet):

2010 - 493,242
2011 - 484,397
2012 - 499,331
2013 - 506,790
2014 - 501,424
2015 - 529,655
2016 - 525,048
2017 - 533,253
2018 - 541,589
2019 - 530,841
2020 - 607,922

(Source: the Office of National Statistics)

Spot the odd one out.

Were you aware that the total number of deaths in England and Wales (and the whole of the UK) in 2020 was the highest for more than a century? Back in 1918, when there happened to be a global flu pandemic, the total number of deaths registered in England and Wales was 611,861. Between then and 2020, the highest figure was 591,889 in 1972.

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

Do you think there's a possibility, just a chance, that the death figures in previous years may give us an indication of the effect of the virus?

Here are the totals for the numbers of deaths in England and Wales for 2010 to 2020 (the figure for 2021 isn't available yet):

2010 - 493,242
2011 - 484,397
2012 - 499,331
2013 - 506,790
2014 - 501,424
2015 - 529,655
2016 - 525,048
2017 - 533,253
2018 - 541,589
2019 - 530,841
2020 - 607,922

(Source: the Office of National Statistics)

Spot the odd one out.

Were you aware that the total number of deaths in England and Wales (and the whole of the UK) in 2020 was the highest for more than a century? Back in 1918, when there happened to be a global flu pandemic, the total number of deaths registered in England and Wales was 611,861. Between then and 2020, the highest figure was 591,889 in 1972.

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It can't be argued they are higher- as they are. However isn't there a more nuanced debate to be had around the reasons (and it won't be a single reason) for these deaths.

For example how many extra have died because of cancer due to so much of our normal NHS all but disappearing as it focused almost entirely on covid?

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Originally Posted by Father Dougal

It can't be argued they are higher- as they are. However isn't there a more nuanced debate to be had around the reasons (and it won't be a single reason) for these deaths.

For example how many extra have died because of cancer due to so much of our normal NHS all but disappearing as it focused almost entirely on covid?

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Of course. The effects of the pandemic are a lot more pronounced than deaths involving Covid-19 alone. That should be obvious to everyone.

As regards a debate, to be honest I've no idea what some of the people in this thread are trying to say. They talk in riddles.

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

Do you think there's a possibility, just a chance, that the death figures in previous years may give us an indication of the effect of the virus?

Here are the totals for the numbers of deaths in England and Wales for 2010 to 2020 (the figure for 2021 isn't available yet):

2010 - 493,242
2011 - 484,397
2012 - 499,331
2013 - 506,790
2014 - 501,424
2015 - 529,655
2016 - 525,048
2017 - 533,253
2018 - 541,589
2019 - 530,841
2020 - 607,922

(Source: the Office of National Statistics)

Spot the odd one out.

Were you aware that the total number of deaths in England and Wales (and the whole of the UK) in 2020 was the highest for more than a century? Back in 1918, when there happened to be a global flu pandemic, the total number of deaths registered in England and Wales was 611,861. Between then and 2020, the highest figure was 591,889 in 1972.

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Out of interest, do we know when 2021 figures are out? Presumably, despite the important nature of the topic, it isnt actually a huge undertaking to add up death figures?

Some interesting but pretty inconclusive stuff here.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...s/december2021

From what I can tell looking at a couple of things, 2021 will be another year of above average death figures.

I like the premise that in some way COVID deaths don't count if the person had something else other than COVID on their death certificates.

Th majority of deaths from AIDS are not caused by the virus but by diseases such as TB (the cause of 25% of AIDS related deaths) which are able to attack the person because their immune system has been weakened by the disease. No one in their right mind has ever argued that these deaths should be attributed to anything other than AIDS, perhaps because when AIDS was at its height there weren't a load of batshit conspiracy theorists doing their 'own research' on twitter.

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Originally Posted by JamesWales

Out of interest, do we know when 2021 figures are out? Presumably, despite the important nature of the topic, it isnt actually a huge undertaking to add up death figures?

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Judging by the notes I read regarding the 2020 figures, it will be around May or June. There is a provisional figure ahead of that, but it gets adjusted.

It's not a simple case of arithmetic. Some deaths take a long time to register due to various enquiries and anomalies. This much I know as registering deaths at sea has been a part of my job in the past. Some registrations can drag on for months.

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Originally Posted by delmbox

What happened in those 7 minutes between 02:17 and 02:24 that made you decide you wanted to add a bit of spice to the message?

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What a stupid comment. Typical of people on here who want to have a dig but can't think of anything constructive to say. Like the 1000000 comment.
What happened was I was working. What were you doing, wanking?

Nobody here overreacts quite like xsnaggle :hehe:

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Originally Posted by lardy

Nobody here overreacts quite like xsnaggle :hehe:

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Well be fair. It was a totally stupid comment. He even checked the timings. Sad!!!

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

What a stupid comment. Typical of people on here who want to have a dig but can't think of anything constructive to say. Like the 1000000 comment.
What happened was I was working. What were you doing, wanking?

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Delmbox wishes he could wank between 02.17 and 02.24. According to ALL OF UR MUMS he would only normally last until 02.19.

to try to illustrate the basic point i was trying to make look if you will at the numbers given her by the ONS. It shows death in the last month of 2021 and the first week of 2022. One set shows and increase the other a decrease. To attain the mean figure we have to deduct one from the other.
given that the pandemic in UK started in Mar 2020 and went on (for example) until Dec 2021, a period of 20 month,s we should then look at the figures of the next 20 months to determine the overall difference above the average. That would be a better indicator of the actual number of excess deaths over a period.
It may well be that the figure is much higher, and evidence suggests that will be the case, but until we have that data no one can say with any certainty.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...rriages/deaths

If these figures aren't collated to establish trends then there is no point in collating them at all.
now I'm going back to sleep because I was working last night, whatever Delm may have been doing. :hehe:

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Originally Posted by JamesWales

Out of interest, do we know when 2021 figures are out? Presumably, despite the important nature of the topic, it isnt actually a huge undertaking to add up death figures?

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It’s not the confirmed figure but the preliminary figures for 2021 deaths are 586,214 deaths. Compared to the 2015-2019 5 year average that’s a ~11% increase.

The data can be found here:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fp...dandwales.xlsx

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Originally Posted by Father Dougal

It can't be argued they are higher- as they are. However isn't there a more nuanced debate to be had around the reasons (and it won't be a single reason) for these deaths.

For example how many extra have died because of cancer due to so much of our normal NHS all but disappearing as it focused almost entirely on covid?

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And how many fewer deaths from 'flu, traffic accidents etc? It cuts both ways.

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

to try to illustrate the basic point i was trying to make look if you will at the numbers given her by the ONS. It shows death in the last month of 2021 and the first week of 2022. One set shows and increase the other a decrease. To attain the mean figure we have to deduct one from the other.
given that the pandemic in UK started in Mar 2020 and went on (for example) until Dec 2021, a period of 20 month,s we should then look at the figures of the next 20 months to determine the overall difference above the average. That would be a better indicator of the actual number of excess deaths over a period.
It may well be that the figure is much higher, and evidence suggests that will be the case, but until we have that data no one can say with any certainty.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...rriages/deaths

If these figures aren't collated to establish trends then there is no point in collating them at all.
now I'm going back to sleep because I was working last night, whatever Delm may have been doing. :hehe:

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I have to confess I really don't understand what you're trying to argue. Just trying to clarify a little here...

Most governments have an agency that calculates EXPECTED (EXP) deaths by time period. I think the UK uses 5 years of back data for its modeling. Just an aside, the statistical models used to forecast EXP deaths are not straightforward simple linear extrapolations. They are much more complex - for instance - they split the population into age cohorts and examine what is going on within each cohort. ACTUAL (ACT) deaths are counted for each time period. (Let's put the issue of how deaths are counted and classified to one side.) EXCESS (XS) deaths is the difference for a given time period between the number of expected deaths and actual deaths: XS = ACT - EXP.

Take 2020, 2021 and 2022 and tell us what you're asserting about XS, ACT and EXP for each year and the point you're making from the assertions.

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Originally Posted by az city

And how many fewer deaths from 'flu, traffic accidents etc? It cuts both ways.

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Maybe. Yes I was wondering if that will have an impact.

Also can't just be taken year by year in terms of overall cost of deaths. Eg if it is higher in 2021 and even 2022 or 2023 how many of those deaths could be traced back to the taking away of the normal health service for such a long period of time. Caner charities say we are seeing more and more cancers in later stages coming through now that weren't picked up for example.

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Originally Posted by Father Dougal

It can't be argued they are higher- as they are. However isn't there a more nuanced debate to be had around the reasons (and it won't be a single reason) for these deaths.

For example how many extra have died because of cancer due to so much of our normal NHS all but disappearing as it focused almost entirely on covid?

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It is a bit of a get out though isn't it.

"OH THOSE PEOPLE, yeah they died with covid not OF covid"

"Okay so shall we look at excess deaths then?"

"Well they could have died of anything!"

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Originally Posted by Father Dougal

Maybe. Yes I was wondering if that will have an impact.

Also can't just be taken year by year in terms of overall cost of deaths. Eg if it is higher in 2021 and even 2022 or 2023 how many of those deaths could be traced back to the taking away of the normal health service for such a long period of time. Caner charities say we are seeing more and more cancers in later stages coming through now that weren't picked up for example.

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I doubt they would also endorse the messages earlier in this thread.

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Originally Posted by JamesWales

Delmbox wishes he could wank between 02.17 and 02.24. According to ALL OF UR MUMS he would only normally last until 02.19.

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I don't like this comment but by God I respect it