Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

Here's my prediction:

Russia is basically an abusive ex husband abusing his ex for flirting with other men.

I think Russia will annex the eastern part of Ukraine where there is probably some support within Ukraine itself, without threatening the rest of Ukraine, which would provoke probably far more intense opposition.

NATO and the west can then be furious about it, but if Russia stops in eastern Ukraine they will claim some victory in stopping Putin, whilst Putin claims victory in invading Ukraine.

All the while, Europe, and especially Germany, gets it’s Russian gas, which given they have supplied Ukraine with no support would suggest it is their greatest concern (Ukraine has always been a pawn between two greater powers, much like Poland, Belarus etc)

So eastern Ukraine becomes a part of Russia, like the Crimea did a few years ago. Ukraine becomes smaller, more ethnically homogenous, more fiercely nationalist and simultaneously more westward looking. Russia buys a few years whilst it works out what it’s raison d’etre in world affairs is.

I hope I’m wrong and nothing happens.

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Originally Posted by JamesWales

Here's my prediction:

Russia is basically an abusive ex husband abusing his ex for flirting with other men.

I think Russia will annex the eastern part of Ukraine where there is probably some support within Ukraine itself, without threatening the rest of Ukraine, which would provoke probably far more intense opposition.

NATO and the west can then be furious about it, but if Russia stops in eastern Ukraine they will claim some victory in stopping Putin, whilst Putin claims victory in invading Ukraine.

All the while, Europe, and especially Germany, gets it’s Russian gas, which given they have supplied Ukraine with no support would suggest it is their greatest concern (Ukraine has always been a pawn between two greater powers, much like Poland, Belarus etc)

So eastern Ukraine becomes a part of Russia, like the Crimea did a few years ago. Ukraine becomes smaller, more ethnically homogenous, more fiercely nationalist and simultaneously more westward looking. Russia buys a few years whilst it works out what it’s raison d’etre in world affairs is.

I hope I’m wrong and nothing happens.

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I have always thought (and mentioned it on here already) that the likelihood is that if does invade then Russia they will probably occupy and take control of only part of The Ukraine. A line drawn from the northern end of Transnistria (itself a breakaway/rogue entity of Moldova and under Russian influence) to Kharkov in the east defines an ethno-political-linguistic divide - and the region below that line is the more likely target for Russia, particularly the region east of the Dnieper. Surely they won't risk occupying the area north of that line, which would end up with endless hostility and guerilla action from the pro-west Ukranian-speaking population there.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sergei doesn&#39;t want his mistress to lose her 4.4 million pound flat in Kensington. <a href="https://t.co/3feoXHRtUq">https://t.co/3feoXHRtUq</a></p>&mdash; Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) <a href="https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1493208366373650435?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 14, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

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Originally Posted by Taunton Blue Genie

I have always thought (and mentioned it on here already) that the likelihood is that if does invade then Russia they will probably occupy and take control of only part of The Ukraine. A line drawn from the northern end of Transnistria (itself a breakaway/rogue entity of Moldova and under Russian influence) to Kharkov in the east defines an ethno-political-linguistic divide - and the region below that line is the more likely target for Russia, particularly the region east of the Dnieper. Surely they won't risk occupying the area north of that line, which would end up with endless hostility and guerilla action from the pro-west Ukranian-speaking population there.

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Yes, I think that is more likely, and whilst there is zero justification for it from our perspective, there is an argument Russia is 'protecting' ethnic and linguistic Russians, which do number in the millions in eastern Ukraine. It would also strengthen Russia in terms of land and population (not that they really need that) and weaken Ukraine. Also, would the west have the fight in them for an all-out war with a nuclear power for a relatively small part of the Ukraine that does to some extent feel Russian anyway?

There's some similarities with the German occupation of Sudetenland in 1938, not that I think Russia now is remotely comparable to Germany in 1938.

Its certainly gathering motion now. Wednesday is "invasion day" apparently being mooted in the press, B52's landing from the USA at RAF Fairford, commercial aircraft and westerners pulling out of the Ukraine.
Just ridiculous. I don't think it will come to shots fired, I think Ukraine will abandon its NATO dream and the russians will pull back. But it is all a bit twitchy for sure.

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Originally Posted by Monster munch

Its certainly gathering motion now. Wednesday is "invasion day" apparently being mooted in the press, B52's landing from the USA at RAF Fairford, commercial aircraft and westerners pulling out of the Ukraine.
Just ridiculous. I don't think it will come to shots fired, I think Ukraine will abandon its NATO dream and the russians will pull back. But it is all a bit twitchy for sure.

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Just what the world needs as we hopefully come out of a pandemic…..putin:shrug:

Interesting that Donetsk, one of the Eastern Cities and I think Pro Russian was established by a Welsh Business Man opening Steelworks and Coal Mines.

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Originally Posted by Wash DC Blue

Interesting that Donetsk, one of the Eastern Cities and I think Pro Russian was established by a Welsh Business Man opening Steelworks and Coal Mines.

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and one of the other main cities in the Russian controlled area is Lugansk, which is twinned with Cardiff

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Originally Posted by Rjk

and one of the other main cities in the Russian controlled area is Lugansk, which is twinned with Cardiff

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Here's hoping that sense prevails.
I do agree with a post above and think that it will be a land grab in the east and hopefully that satiates the blood lust and ego.

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Originally Posted by Wash DC Blue

Here's hoping that sense prevails.
I do agree with a post above and think that it will be a land grab in the east and hopefully that satiates the blood lust and ego.

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Like Russia needs just a bit more land….madness

Apparently if the west and Ukraine makes a statement confirming not to become a NATO or European member were all good .

I'd agree wait until they pull back weapons and troops then join NATO and arm it borders to the hilt as the new NATO defence.

Last time I blinked I can't remember NATO invading anyone other than as a peace keeper, how does a peace keeper pose a threat ?

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Originally Posted by goats

Like Russia needs just a bit more land….madness

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It's not necessarily about acreage per se. Russia and Eastern Ukraine share a heritage that dates back to the Rus, a people whose name is associated with both Russia and Belarus (aka White Russia). The party political split runs along the same line as the language divide (i.e. Russian v Ukranian as the primary language) and, rightly or wrongly, Putin seems to want to bring part of Ukraine back to the fold, as it were. No doubt the agriculturally rich areas he covets won't go amiss for him - and neither will more access to the Black Sea.

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Originally Posted by Taunton Blue Genie

It's not necessarily about acreage per se. Russia and Eastern Ukraine share a heritage that dates back to the Rus, a people whose name is associated with both Russia and Belarus (aka White Russia). The party political split runs along the same line as the language divide (i.e. Russian v Ukranian as the primary language) and, rightly or wrongly, Putin seems to want to bring part of Ukraine back to the fold, as it were. No doubt the agriculturally rich areas he covets won't go amiss for him - and neither will more access to the Black Sea.

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Access to the black sea is not such a goal, everything still has to go through the bosphoros, and its so shallow submarines have to surface so every movement is logged by NATO.
Ukraine produces a vast percentage of the worlds grain, and sell a lot to Russia, but if the Russian take over the production it will be fecked because of the level of corruption that will be imported.

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Originally Posted by life on mars

Apparently if the west and Ukraine makes a statement confirming not to become a NATO or European member were all good .

I'd agree wait until they pull back weapons and troops then join NATO and arm it borders to the hilt as the new NATO defence.

Last time I blinked I can't remember NATO invading anyone other than as a peace keeper, how does a peace keeper pose a threat ?

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NATO's stated purpose is : The North Atlantic Treaty Organization or Atlantic Alliance (NATO) is an international political and military organization with the aim of guaranteeing the freedom and security of its members through political and military means.

If Ukraine is a member, with missiles on Russia's border, it's not too difficult to understand why Putin would want Ukraine to remain outside NATO. This isn't a totally black and white, good v evil, as the west is making out.

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

NATO's stated purpose is : The North Atlantic Treaty Organization or Atlantic Alliance (NATO) is an international political and military organization with the aim of guaranteeing the freedom and security of its members through political and military means.

If Ukraine is a member, with missiles on Russia's border, it's not too difficult to understand why Putin would want Ukraine to remain outside NATO. This isn't a totally black and white, good v evil, as the west is making out.

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Quite possibly but Putin has already snaffled the Crimea and the Donbass region so he's not exactly occupying the moral high ground.
Oh, and why should a state run by a despot prevent another State, which is more democratic, in deciding what it wants to do regarding its own security?

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Originally Posted by Taunton Blue Genie

Quite possibly but Putin has already snaffled the Crimea and the Donbass region so he's not exactly occupying the moral high ground.
Oh, and why should a state run by a despot prevent another State, which is more democratic, in deciding what it wants to do regarding its own security?

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They shouldn't. but Russia - and China - have long memories. Don't forget Iraq, Syria, Libya - the West 'invaded' those nations, and has, and still does, try to instill regime changes in many other countries.

President Zelensky, addressing the nation, says "we are told that February 16 will be the day of the attack. We will make it the Day of Unity... On this day, we will hoist national flags, put on blue and yellow ribbons and show the world our unity."

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

Access to the black sea is not such a goal, everything still has to go through the bosphoros, and its so shallow submarines have to surface so every movement is logged by NATO.
Ukraine produces a vast percentage of the worlds grain, and sell a lot to Russia, but if the Russian take over the production it will be fecked because of the level of corruption that will be imported.

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As I stated, additional access to the Black Sea wouldn't go amiss but it's not the main objective at all.

Having read this thread I've made a note in my diary for 16-02-2022: what may later become known as World War 3 is scheduled to start today in Ukraine.

Possibly the best and most brutal anti-war movie ever made is a German language one titled Stalingrad. It's viewable at youtube for free with English subtitles, here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnJJQxZ0hu8

https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/sta...I3QHS3t6A&s=19

definitely no false flag being planned here.

Haven't we been told for the past three years or so that a russian attack on Ukraine is 'imminent' and isn't there a legally binding document that says that Georgia and Ukraine were not to considered for membership to NATO? Putin is an absolute piece of shit, but what would America or Britain do if Russia or china decided to put warheads in Northern France of Ireland, which could happen if Ukraine join NATO.

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Originally Posted by Tuerto

Haven't we been told for the past three years or so that a russian attack on Ukraine is 'imminent' and isn't there a legally binding document that says that Georgia and Ukraine were not to considered for membership to NATO? Putin is an absolute piece of shit, but what would America or Britain do if Russia or china decided to put warheads in Northern France of Ireland, which could happen if Ukraine join NATO.

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Got that wrong, Russia want a legally binding agreement over Ukraine and Georgia's entry into NATO, in that they are not invited.

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Originally Posted by Tuerto

Got that wrong, Russia want a legally binding agreement over Ukraine and Georgia's entry into NATO, in that they are not invited.

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How can one country dictate on anothers free choices is beyond me however upsetting it is , its highly unlikely that Georgia or Ukraine will park its forces in a threatening manner towards Russia . This whole thing sounds like a damaged Russian leaders ego and hanging onto power.

If the Ukraine wants to join Nato why should they back down to the Ruskies?
I hope nato backs the Ukraine in whichever way possible until the dictator backs down

Are Russia really worried about NATO on the border ( NATO has been doing border exercises for years in the Ukraine, some of our soldiers train in the snow that way )

the idea that they are worried about missiles being pointed at them doesn't add up either, as Poznań to Moscow is only 1600 km away ( St Petersburg is even less ) so even medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) will hit it from the NATO base, infact the MRBM will hit most of Russia

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Originally Posted by blue matt

Are Russia really worried about NATO on the border ( NATO has been doing border exercises for years in the Ukraine, some of our soldiers train in the snow that way )

the idea that they are worried about missiles being pointed at them doesn't add up either, as Poznań to Moscow is only 1600 km away ( St Petersburg is even less ) so even medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) will hit it from the NATO base, infact the MRBM will hit most of Russia

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They just don't want the Ukraine joining Nato because i think they see it has weakening Russia.
I believe they want to build another soviet union and see the Ukraine has messing it up

Time for the West to man up to Putin .

The arrogance of the Salisbury poisonings is still fresh in the mind as Is the annexing of Crimea , and let's not forget the fourteen thousand lost life's during this conflict .

would be a shot in the arm for the defence industry tho

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Originally Posted by life on mars

Time for the West to man up to Putin .

The arrogance of the Salisbury poisonings is still fresh in the mind as Is the annexing of Crimea , and let's not forget the fourteen thousand lost life's during this conflict .

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And the Malaysia airlines jet they shot down killing everyone including about 60 Dutch children

Putin doesn't tolerate political rivalry. His rivals are either in prison, dead or recovering from poisoning in hospital.

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Originally Posted by Rock_Flock_of_Five

Putin doesn't tolerate political rivalry. His rivals are either in prison, dead or recovering from poisoning in hospital.

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Which really tells you all you need to know…..

Sky News reporting some Russian troops being pulled back from the Ukraine border and some tanks being loaded back onto trains.

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Originally Posted by Rock_Flock_of_Five

Sky News reporting some Russian troops being pulled back from the Ukraine border and some tanks being loaded back onto trains.

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If true that is wonderful news for all of us , as we will all be effected especially those who are seeing inflation and excessive fuel bills , the world is suffering big time with Covid and supply chains we don't need this .

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Originally Posted by Rock_Flock_of_Five

Putin doesn't tolerate political rivalry. His rivals are either in prison, dead or recovering from poisoning in hospital.

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To be fair the same can be said about the US

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Originally Posted by OurManFlint II

To be fair the same can be said about the US

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it isn't even remotely comparable

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Originally Posted by Rjk

it isn't even remotely comparable

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Oh really....

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Originally Posted by OurManFlint II

Oh really....

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how many USA presidential candidates are assassinated, or arrested under false pretences?
how many US journalists are thrown to their deaths from 5th floor windows for any kind of criticism of the president ?

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Originally Posted by OurManFlint II

Oh really....

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Three different people have won the last three elections in the us. It's hardly "don't tolerate political rivalry" on the level of Russia.

USA is far from perfect but has a key difference to Russia , Democracy and freedom of speech .

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Originally Posted by life on mars

USA is far from perfect but has a key difference to Russia , Democracy and freedom of speech .

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Sure, and don't the rest of the world know it.