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Ford disagrees with you: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47225787Quote:
Originally Posted by llan bluebird
Nobody, including me, is saying Ford left/is leaving solely because of Brexit. But if anybody thinks that didn't play a part in their decision-making, they are deluded.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cyril evans awaydays
Why in a green world do we need to export ? There are 33 million cars in the UK, thats a lot of cars transitioning to electric.
For the left, it can be nationalised, for the right, it can be pride in UK manufacturing and buying British. Same thing.
The USA has forgotten how to make things, and so is pilling cash to return manufacturing to America, The EU will justify continued German and French state subsidies in their fair and equal marketplace.
The UK is now small enough to do what's right for itself, our problem is we are still arguing whether we are closer to the Yanks or the Europeans and the truth is neither and we have never been.
Engineering talent is a global commodity, who pays wins.
Globalisation is dying on its arse, supply chains are crippled worldwide and I severely doubt it will ever get back to those halcyon days of a decade ago.
Covid delayed the inevitable Brexit crash, but the delay has allowed companies to figure out how to work around them. Time is a great healer and I suspect in a few years there will be a sensible solution.
Ford isn't leaving the UK just restructuring its operations like most of the big OEM car manufacturers . As a sign of confidence just invested in a shed load of money only 2 months ago at its Halewood plant securing its workforce .Quote:
Originally Posted by az city
https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news...-ford-25717318
sounds bizarre a big problem here in the UK most of the car /aerospace companies can't get enough skilled engineering type people especially with the new technologies within these industries .
A lack of apprenticeships and apprenticeship type degrees over a sustained 30 year period has held back the UK
If we are going to look for blame , I blame the government in its way it's not invested in developing young people and core skills within the UK required in these type of industries.
From this forums paper of choice, four years later.
https://www.theguardian.com/business...-cut-uk-europe
The jobs are at its technical centre, so no tariffs or supply issues.
Ford dropped the ball (massively) and blames everyone else
I thought you started your contribution with some very valid points. However you seem to have made a Utopian leap of faith that the UK is now the perfect size, we don't need either the US or Europe to prosper and we can outbid that world for talent. All the while we need worry not about having an export capability because we have a perfectly functional internal market of our own.Quote:
Originally Posted by llan bluebird
Seems you are hauling down the Global Britain Brexit flag and pulling up the drawbridge of this sceptred isle as the way to future prosperity.
Listen. The UK new car market is too small for a UK manufacturer to survive purely on domestic sales. Car producers require massive production runs to drive down unit costs. Did you know, for example, that VW's A Series includes something like 11 different consumer models (Audi, VW, Seat, Skoda)? They do this to produce engines and parts in their millions to drive down costs of production.Quote:
Originally Posted by llan bluebird
Large scale (global) production is here to stay. It's actually one of the primary reasons why mature technology prices fall precipitously (cf. your TV references).
FYI the US manufacturing share of GDP is 20% bigger than the UK's.Quote:
Originally Posted by llan bluebird
Why are some of you (rightly) talking about the importance of a free trade deal when that is what we have, imperfect as it may be in terms of some checks? UK exports to the EU are at a record high.
Clearly there is a hell of a lot going on in the global car industry. Rapidly developing economies, technological advances, a growing green movement towards electric motors and away from cars in general, coupled with a global pandemic, a global supply issue, soaring inflation and shortage of key goods.
Did Brexit, which happened a mere three weeks before the pandemic, help? No, and there would never be immediate benefits in this (or any other sector) Has it caused damage? Who knows.
What we do know is that the four largest European economies are all seeing a very substantial decrease in vehicle production, which rather suggests that the core issues lie elsewhere.
I don't doubt there are those in France blaming their car production declines on Macron. Those in Germany blaming the Green movement, etc etc..but I'd suggest these are complex and multi faceted issues.
Strikes me that the biggest challenge is who adapts to green vehicles quickest and that doesn't really seem to be us at the moment but it's probably too early to make any sweeping statements
"Immediate benefits" of Brexit are none. Disbenefits are both SR and LR huge. Agreed.
Jimbo, give us your prediction of which millennium the LR benefits of Brexit will become apparent.
Bollocks I'm afraid. The record nominal year for UK exports to the EU was 2018. I'd be curious to know where things are in PPP real $ terms.Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
The reason UK exports (valued in GBPs) rose, after a multi-year decline which started in 2011, in 2017 was the GBP lost 20-25% of its value, making UK exports cheaper.
Are you also implying the UK has frictionless trade with the EU?
Quote:
Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY
You have alienated yourself from 17/18 Million of the electorate :hehe:
Yours is clean, mine is dirty!Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Lung
Yes that would be interesting to see I agree. But it's not bollocks it's a fact. And whilst there are always reasons behind statistics, you present a world of endless negativity and the reality is that isn't the case. You can't just dismiss things as bollocks.Quote:
Originally Posted by az city
You seem to view things as binary or black and white, good and bad, where anything bad (or different to your view) is universally bad and anything good is spectacular. But that isn't so, and the stats generally show that and when unpicking them it is impossible to seperate them from Covid also.
More widely, a true picture will undoubtedly occur in coming years which is why 2022 and especially 2023's data will be so clear and indicative of the future.
The general point of Brexit isn't that good trading relations don't matter, it's that in tying them to the EU (a declining part of our and the world's trading cake) we are unable to strike our own deals globally.
Whether that happens remains to be seen, but as os clear to anyone, a matter of weeks after leaving the EU we were in the greatest global shock for many many decades so it's impossible to assess yet.
Some look for practical solutions to problems. I don't sense you are one of those people tbh.
I guess if you could define the problem you are talking about, obviously can't be Brexit, that would give him a start!Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
Problems facing the UK are many. Developing a better trading relationship with the EU is of course important so let's hope the discussions currently taking place in Belfast are positive, right?Quote:
Originally Posted by cyril evans awaydays
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-deal-imminent
Obviously Brexit was a massive change followed weeks later by Covid and then the multitude of global issues stemming from that. Do you think that is fertile ground to assess something properly?
If Scotland became independent in Feb 2020 and in March 2020 Covid hit would you say that is a normal environment to make an assessment of the success or otherwise of it? I would be amazed if you thought it was.
It would be a great idea for a thread mind for us all to identify issues and talk about solutions for them. 👍
It is wryly ironic when people who saw our marriage with the EU as a problem now asking people if they have solutions to the divorce. Having a rational solution to the Northern Ireland Protocol that Johnson presented as the centrepiece of the "oven ready" deal that brought the DUP and the ERG on board would be a beneficial step. It will be interesting to see how Johnson and his cronies like Frost, the DUP and the ERG react if Sunak actually negotiates something rational.Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
Similarly there was a sensible conclave chaired by Gove the other week looking at identifying solutions to the problems that Brexit has caused. It triggered convulsive outrage from those aforementioned groups and the jingoist tabloids at the temerity of seeing issues with Brexit and the thought of softening the purism of our departure. Whilst the New Model Army holds sway in the Tory Party I doubt there will be any sensible steps forward.
The idea that our future prosperity lies with trade deals on far off shores, which if early signs are anything to go by are disadvantageous compared with the benefits to the other party, in a world looking a bit more inwards and shortening supply lines as green measures kick in is a massive leap of faith.
There is plenty of evidence from the OBR, Bank of England and other studies about the underperformance of our economy, we are the only major economy to recover from Covid and our forecasted (I know) future growth is parlous. There could be a range of reasons other than the Schengen in the room why the GDP fairy hasn't sprinkled its magic dust on us of course.
Sensible solutions would involve working on closer mutually beneficial relationships with our closest trading partners. I don't know where burning as much EU negotiated law and regulation as quickly as you can (a bit like sowing kippers into the curtains before the new owners move in) fits with your search for solutions but I am sure as soon as Guido pronounces you can paint it as a positive step.
You've not really offered much in terms of practical solutions there, are deflecting with comments about the ERG (and bizarrely), Guido Fawkes and you seem to imply that all of the UKs problems are tied to Brexit which the evidence j ust doesn't stack up on, which is my entire point. Have you forgotten that Britain post 2008 was not in great shape at all?Quote:
Originally Posted by cyril evans awaydays
There are clearly issues on cross border trade, which need sorting (and they are literally talking about it now) but the vast majority of problems facing the UK are faced by other countries, who also face numerous issues that are less of a concern here (unemployment for example). My entire point is that people need to move away from a binery decision made 7 years ago.
And you didn't answer this question:
If Scotland became independent in Feb 2020 and in March 2020 Covid hit would you say that is a normal environment to make an assessment of the success or otherwise of it? I would be amazed if you thought it was.
It is quite funny to see you get miffed about your use of Guido as source material given the knowing sighs you make whenever a Guardian article appears.Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
That you don't see forging closer rather than more divergent ties to the EU within the framework of Brexit as impractical says a lot about the strictures and climate that the zealots have created and continue to shout down any attempts at rebalancing a flawed departure.
The analogy of drawing conclusions on a newly formed state concurrently detaching itself from a fully formed union with an existing one that was part of a loose federation is frankly bizarre. As I said the comparative evidence of G7 countries growth wrestling with Covid and greater energy challenges are all there already. I guess you just have to want to look.
1/ Not miffed at all! Just a very weird thing to mention. I provided a link to the guardian earlier. It's a good paper but it's not gospel and it's opinion writers are usually hopelessly biased.Quote:
Originally Posted by cyril evans awaydays
2/Of course 'forging closer ties' within the context of being outside the EU is not impractical. That's what's happening now. A free trade deal without the political element is ideal.
3/Yes it's an analogy, but it stands. The global pandemic makes assessing any big change that occured a month before it essentially impossible to assess. Your non answer is your answer. It's clearly not valid to do it, just as it wouldn't be valid to assess a Scotland that became independent a month before Covid.
4/ The GDP an do return to pre Covid figures are very important and it's absolutely fair to mention it. But countries economies didn't all decline the same either. I'm sure the point was made that Covid hit our economy more at the time? Nonetheless, important data I agree, but not the only figures going.
My point is, was, always will be that these are complex issues with numerous inputs and outcomes and there's evidence on either side. No one denies the status quo is not ideal and needs improving though 👍
Jimbo, what EXPERTS do is disentangle the various "inputs" and "outputs" using various modeling techniques. That's what the EXPERTS you steadfastly refuse to accept have done around Brexit.Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
ALL (bar idiots who slavishly follow Minford's mob) have concluded Brexit is a major factor leading to a decline in the British economy.
I know you don't like the conclusions they've reached but you must at least acknowledge them. Please tell us all why you're right and they are all wrong.
You can have opinions, you cannot have your own facts.Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
In nominal terms, 2022 was NOT a record year for UK exports to the EU, 2019 was. Prove me wrong post the actual statistics on here...
I know you won't because you are WRONG. You are posting BOLLOCKS.
Here's the House of Commons' official commentary on UK-EU trade. (You might want to skip it, it's rather uncomfortable reading for you.)
"The EU, taken as a whole is the UK’s largest trading partner. In 2021, UK exports to the EU were £267 billion (42% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £292 billion (45% of all UK imports).
Disruptions to international trade caused by the coronavirus pandemic, combined with disruptions caused by the end of the Brexit transition period, saw the value of UK trade with the EU contract sharply between 2019 and 2020, before partially recovering between 2020 and 2021.
The share of UK exports accounted for by the EU has generally fallen over time from 54% in 2006 to 42% in 2021.
The share of UK imports accounted for by the EU fell from 58% in 2002 to 45% in 2021.
The UK had an overall trade deficit of -£25 billion with the EU in 2021. A surplus of £42 billion on trade in services was outweighed by a deficit of -£67 billion on trade in goods.
Northern Ireland followed by Wales and the North East of England had the highest percentage of goods exports going to the EU of all the countries and regions in the UK in 2021. Northern Ireland followed by the South East of England, had the highest proportion of goods imports from the EU."
You saying this! Jesus, irony really is misunderstood in the US!Quote:
Originally Posted by az city
"You can have opinions, you cannot have your own facts."
Notwithstanding the multitude of facts in both directions, I shall you the same question Cyril failed to answer:
If Scotland became independent in Feb 2020 and in March 2020 Covid hit would you say that is a normal environment to make an assessment of the success or otherwise of it?
Stop the obfuscating whataboutery and actually answer my posts.Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
AZ, no one is going to argue that the current trading arrangements between the UK and the EU are easier than before. They never will be. Let's be clear on that, and it's something there is agreement on.Quote:
Originally Posted by az city
The theoretical benefits (trade wise) of Brexit are that not being in the EU/Single Market means we can develop better trading relationships with other countries and these countries may be faster growing and larger in size than the EU. That's a theory at the moment, we don't really know how that will pan out, and I think most reasonable people would acknowledge that Covid preoccupation is probably a part of that.
Those two things most would probably agree on.
My point is that there are other factors that you choose not to look at. Let's say unemployment, let's say the FTSE, let's say wages vs inflation. On these three factors the UK is generally doing better than the EU at the moment. The pound is weak v the dollar but so too has the euro been. For periods last year the UK was seeing higher GDP growth quarterly for other periods lower. Our inflation has generally been lower than the EU average, jobs have probably never been easier to find in the UK for decades, some people have seen wages rude very well. Again, no one says this is down to Brexit entirely at all, but it's all part of a wider, more holistic look at the UK economy and the European economy, which on the ground really is not in any fine shape either.
You only present bad news, and do not look at things holistically. None of which particularly paints a rosy picture per se, but the vast majority of it does not paint a picture that shows the UK to be demonstrably worse than other countries, nor can we universally conclude what the reasons are for that even if we could.
Why don't we see how this year pans out? We are all in a post covid world, unfortunately not in a post Ukraine war world, but perhaps the shock of that have been absorbed and there is no escalation. There are legacies of both that impact us all, but let's just see what happens shall we?
You seem to believe your Scottish example makes you some kind of latterday Cicero, effortlessly dismissing counter arguments. It is a ludicrous comparison. The UK as a political entity has masses of data to make a comparison with the before and after effects of the first trade deal in history to introduce rather than remove obstacles to trade. Scotland has little of this, would be seeking similtaneously to join the European Union and putting the very same obstacles between it and England and Wales that the Withdrawal Agreement establishes (give or take the likelihood of a Common Travel Area).Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
But we don't need distorting hypotheses to draw conclusions so far. Experts given the responsibility have done the hard work for us. So when the OBR says “The latest evidence suggests that Brexit has had a significant adverse impact on U.K. trade, via reducing both overall trade volumes and the number of trading relationships between U.K. and EU firms,” or
when the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England says “Brexit … has been something that has pulled on our potential output in our country and that’s been our assessment for many years,” “We’ve not changed our estimate of the long-running effects, but we’ve brought some of them forward and we think they’re probably coming in faster than we first expected.” or
when the Governor of the Bank of England says "Brexit was one of a series of significant economic shocks to have had an impact along with the Covid pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing rise in energy costs.“These shocks have held back both productivity and labour supply,” or
The Office of National Statistics shows that we are the only major economy still to return to positive growth after Covid/Energy Crisis these institutions are using hard economic data rather than a ouija board.
well some more good news announced today for the UK automotive sector with big investment planned for the mini plant based in Cowley Oxford
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64902153
as its boom time in the semi-conductor industry would be nice if the government ( even if labour get in next year ) would invest big time in the UK also
as mentioned before seems like capital investment and people Engineering skills investment has been holding back the UK for a number of years . Keep manufacturing in the UK please !
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64872465
Good news for all involved. Weird that a £600m investment in the British car industry was buried as the sixth story on the BBC business page. I looked there earlier this week and the main story was some bloke tweeting Elon Musk about losing his job.Quote:
Originally Posted by MOZZER2
News values eh?!
Agree. You would have thought stuff like this would knock Gary Lineker off the front pages of the Daily Mail.Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
Indeed. I would be a happier man in this respect if the media focused more on real news and less on tweets from celebritiesQuote:
Originally Posted by cyril evans awaydays
This is what they just don't get...and the EU is by far and away our largest market.Quote:
Originally Posted by cyril evans awaydays
Ai AiQuote:
Originally Posted by WJ99mobile