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Re: Senedd election prediction
I think Plaid will finish as third biggest party but probably made mistakes in: setting a date for referendum when it currently scares a lot of people and perhaps promising to spend too aggressively in their manifesto. The transformative policies are good but think parties of the left need slightly more focus on what's most important/achievable - combining with Gwlad team might help do this.
In addition, fear that Tories would win in big numbers and pandemic giving Labour center stage has probably lost them votes too.
I know it's still early days, much to play for, but is anyone else looking forward to Sludge hastily updating his views on Mark Drakeford?
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Preseli Pembrokeshire:
i)Tories win with 39.0% of the vote and if combined with Reform would get 42.9%.
ii) Labour second with 34.6% but if combined with Plaid would have 54.1%
Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South:
i) Tories win with 35.5% of the vote and if combined with Reform and UKIP would get 39.9%
ii) Labour second with 32.6% but if combined with Plaid would get 53.5%
I know it still doesn't work like that but in another universe Labour and Plaid have taken one of those seats each rather than losing both to Tories.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Dreadful night for plaid , vote hardly moved here come the excuses
Good night for Labour but great that drakeford will be stepping down to give a new vibrant leader a chance to pull away
Laughing my arse off at the conservatives , cocky as feck , drooling on about the 22 stale years of Labour and all that crap
Opinion polls in last few days of the election showing a gain in conservative support clearly brought out the good men and women of Wales to get to the polling stations and show up where it mattered to keep the tories out of power in Wales
God bless you all
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Re: Senedd election prediction
I’m so pleased that my country men and women still want decency and values. England needs a good look at itself. Good on the Scots too.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
Dreadful night for plaid , vote hardly moved here come the excuses
Good night for Labour but great that drakeford will be stepping down to give a new vibrant leader a chance to pull away
Laughing my arse off at the conservatives , cocky as feck , drooling on about the 22 stale years of Labour and all that crap
Opinion polls in last few days of the election showing a gain in conservative support clearly brought out the good men and women of Wales to get to the polling stations and show up where it mattered to keep the tories out of power in Wales
God bless you all
There were never going to be massive gains for Plaid. It's all about them becoming the serious left option in Wales and a long term plan for independence.
Their manifesto was practically the same as Labour and independence will grow when hopefully Scotland and Ireland go.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dave Blue
I’m so pleased that my country men and women still want decency and values. England needs a good look at itself. Good on the Scots too.
This is why Wales and Scotland need independence. It's the only way to break free of Westminster and Tory rule.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
NYCBlue
This is why Wales and Scotland need independence. It's the only way to break free of Westminster and Tory rule.
I don't see any issue with independence and a Welsh Conservative government. The concern is that we don't have a Welsh Conservative party as they currently can't offer anything distinctive for what is clearly a different population/part of the world, and only time a Tory mentions Wales is when they try to win more votes in England.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dave Blue
I’m so pleased that my country men and women still want decency and values. England needs a good look at itself. Good on the Scots too.
Nice one
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Jane Hutt gives the tories a leathering in the Vale of Glamorgan
Get in there !
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Harry Paget Flashman
There were never going to be massive gains for Plaid. It's all about them becoming the serious left option in Wales and a long term plan for independence.
Their manifesto was practically the same as Labour and independence will grow when hopefully Scotland and Ireland go.
The thing is the public clearly don't see them as a left wing option
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Re: Senedd election prediction
12 more seats to be declared.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
The thing is the public clearly don't see them as a left wing option
Most think Labour are.
And if you consider Labour as the left wing option why would you shift to Plaid in this election when Drakeford has been great for 12 months.
Longer term independence becomes a greater issue esp if Scotland goes. If they do watch Labour in Wales start to follow.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Harry Paget Flashman
Most think Labour are.
And if you consider Labour as the left wing option why would you shift to Plaid in this election when Drakeford has been great for 12 months.
Longer term independence becomes a greater issue esp if Scotland goes. If they do watch Labour in Wales start to follow.
you hope
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Dinosaurs in the Valleys are still protesting against Maggie Thatcher. The woman who stands for Labour in Merthyr is a self serving **** , she don’t even know the name of the town ffs. Heartbreaking.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Time to shake it up I reckon. People over 55 shouldn’t be allowed to vote. Old ****’s pulling the ladder up and destroying the younger generations future.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Looks like magic 30 seats for Labour.
'Duckford' done good.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Former Labour leader
Looks like magic 30 seats for Labour.
'Duckford' done good.
Remarkable really . I would like him to put his feet up and have a nap in a year or so .
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Well done Welsh Labour and Mark Drakeford.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
insider
Well done Welsh Labour and Mark Drakeford.
indeed , the results speak for themselves, its a real turn up for the books
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
Remarkable really . I would like him to put his feet up and have a nap in a year or so .
The people of Cardiff West don't agree.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
insider
Well done Welsh Labour and Mark Drakeford.
:thumbup:
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
insider
Well done Welsh Labour and Mark Drakeford.
Well done on people still voting like it’s 1985
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
insider
Well done Welsh Labour and Mark Drakeford.
Well done the people of Wales. Stand firm.
I don't know what the people of Hartlepool are thinking. There's nothing in this for them. I can only put it down to xenophobia.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
J R Hartley
Well done on people still voting like it’s 1985
You’re mistaking Wales for England!
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
NYCBlue
Well done the people of Wales. Stand firm.
I don't know what the people of Hartlepool are thinking. There's nothing in this for them. I can only put it down to xenophobia.
Because they're still thankful that Boris got Brexit done and that hes got them all vaccinated. In 18 months he couldnt have really done much more
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
The Bloop
Because they're still thankful that Boris got Brexit done and that hes got them all vaccinated. In 18 months he couldnt have really done much more
So fuucking up their economy and mismanaging the pandemic, at a cost of a few relatives was forgiven really?
Utterly fuucking stupid some people.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Mid and West Wales regional results – 2 Lab 1 Plaid Cymru 1 Lib Dem
Once again, the Greens won more than Abolish!
8 seats to go.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
surge
Mid and West Wales regional results – 2 Lab 1 Plaid Cymru 1 Lib Dem
Once again, the Greens won more than Abolish!
8 seats to go.
suck on that Andrew RT Davies and the conservatives
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jordi Culé
So fuucking up their economy and mismanaging the pandemic, at a cost of a few relatives was forgiven really?
Utterly fuucking stupid some people.
the monkey hangers
Not very bright up that way
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Earlier I said that Plaid were 21 votes off a second regional seat but it turns out the winner of that seat was the Tories. South Wales East and Central to go, where I expect Tories will do better than Plaid, but it was so close to Tories being on 11 seats and Plaid on 10 going into final day.
Police Crime Commissioner results on Sunday.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Labour minority government , never thought they would get 30 seats
Tories in certain towns are complaining long waits to vote which saw many walk away was a conspiracy by Labour to reduce the tory vote !
Aww
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
J R Hartley
Time to shake it up I reckon. People over 55 shouldn’t be allowed to vote. Old ****’s pulling the ladder up and destroying the younger generations future.
Tosser :old:
Following your logic, Oldies shouldn't be allowed to govern either.
Then we'll have real playground politics
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
J R Hartley
Time to shake it up I reckon. People over 55 shouldn’t be allowed to vote. Old ****’s pulling the ladder up and destroying the younger generations future.
Following these rules there would be no Brexit!👍
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Re: Senedd election prediction
I didn’t expect any different but god it’s depressing. Seeing people hating the Conservatives and celebrating Welsh Labour is mind boggling to me, we truly deserve the country we live in.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
bobh
Tosser :old:
Following your logic, Oldies shouldn't be allowed to govern either.
Then we'll have real playground politics
He's only kidding lol
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Bruce Parry
I didn’t expect any different but god it’s depressing. Seeing people hating the Conservatives and celebrating Welsh Labour is mind boggling to me, we truly deserve the country we live in.
is this because you voted plaid
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Thank God Wales bucked the trend and didn’t vote for the God awful Tories.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
This election was dominated by covid and that can, to an extent, explain results seen.
By the time we have the next Senedd election we'll have had much more fall-out from Brexit; difficult recovery from covid; Drakeford going; Tories retaining a majority in Westminster and Wales losing seats at that level; and possible independence vote in Scotland.
The incumbent party has had an advantage this time round but could easily swing against them next time.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
surge
This election was dominated by covid and that can, to an extent, explain results seen.
By the time we have the next Senedd election we'll have had much more fall-out from Brexit; difficult recovery from covid; Drakeford going; Tories retaining a majority in Westminster and Wales losing seats at that level; and possible independence vote in Scotland.
The incumbent party has had an advantage this time round but could easily swing against them next time.
Agree with most of that.
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Re: Senedd election prediction
Interesting point on BBC Wales last night that covid ended up really damaging Plaid, they had planned for a presidential style election campaign pitting Price against an unknown Drakeford but the immense media exposure Drakeford had doing daily press conferences helped labour massively. Also, because of the covid restrictions they lost months of potential canvassing and door knocking which is key to them as they don’t have the financial donors that labour and Tories do.
Plaid need 3-4 regional seats today to limit the damage but I can’t see more than 3 to be honest