https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-boris-johnson
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“The progressive daily Ethnos described Johnson as “more dangerous than coronavirus”, saying one of the crisis’s greatest tragedies was that “incompetent leaders” such as Johnson and Donald Trump were “at the helm at a time of such emergency”.
Hard to disagree with that.
UK government set 20,000 as benchmark figure for "good result". We're sadly past that by 10,000 recorded and could be more than double when counting stops.
Meanwhile, brief test and trace strategy of mid-March stopped due to lack of capacity to test; capacity now increased and yet testing numbers (by government's definition) decreasing since headlines made at end of April/start of May. Next target is to increase lab processing of tests, another small step in right direction, but anyone saying this is "apparent success" should be asked why, despite having more notice than most that this was coming, we started from nothing and increased so slowly so now are playing catch-up while thousands die. Clue: it's not what the science said.
Excess death rate figures knocking about:-
England 44.1
Spain 34.74
Belgium 29.38
Netherlands 24.07
Italy 22.74
France 21.75
Wales 19.25
Scotland 17.25
Sweden 14.50
It's too shocking for words.
Over 6,000 new cases, and the death rate passes 30,000.
The number of case are, at best, plateauing. It doesn't seem advisable to remove restrictions at the moment. In America, cases seem to be rising still. I suspect both Trump and Johnson will lift restrictions (Trump almost entirely, Johnson in stages), and I have no confidence that a second wave will be avoided. Let's wait and see what theys actually do.
the point of the increase in detected caes is that if there is more etsting you will find more people infected. But increase testing doesn't put more people in hospital, those sick enough to be hospitalised would be anyway, and those who die would have anyway.
The higher tsting may show a higher percebtage of the opulatin contaminated but by the same token showe that a smaller proportin of the people with it are actually dying.
It doesn't change the death figures but it does inform scientists regarding percentages contaminatec and not getting a serious dose, which may inform lockdown easing decisions
The UK had 43,000 excess deaths for March and April. In other words 43,000 more deaths than would be expected for these months. Well above any other European country. This Government should be hammered for this especially the way Care Homes have been treated with complete disregard.
There were more people being tested last week and yet the figure has not dropped accordingly, in fact it's more than on some days when there were more tests - although I suppose the high figure might be down to many of those kits sent out on the last two days of last week being returned at the same time, hopefully that will be the case.
https://twitter.com/davidmcswane/sta...936921601?s=19
Utter shambles. In America this time.
Why don’t they count care home deaths? With the oldest population in Europe and only second to Japan in the world it makes you wonder how bad it really is over there? If you took the care home deaths off our recorded ones now they would be far lower.
Almost half of the deaths in Cardiff County are now care homes related for ie.....
Has anyone on here actually lost their job? Just wondering as we hear about this in the news but I don’t actually know anyone who has? I know one who ran his own holistic massage business but he will get going again and has found other work already in the social care field. A few mates who play in pubs and who do festivals have lost work but I’m sure that will return at some point.
Thanks for that, seems that while this postcode could hardly be called a hotbed, it is the worst one in this area - people are wrong when they say the virus hasn't found its way up here.
Was told there have been at least two deaths in the local care home when walking the dog earlier.
Okay, let's not say second wave then, but if we go into a sustained period of six thousand plus new cases a day, then it would almost certainly indicate an increase in the R and, consequently an eventual rise in the death rate. This is something that I am not aware of happening in comparable countries (i.e. ones without very small populations) so far, there's always been a gradual decline after the rates plateaued elsewhere, if it shouldn't be called a second wave, it would be a second something.
As I mentioned, there has to be a good chance that yesterday's high figure on a low testing day, by recent standards, is a one off or a short term increase caused by returns gradually coming in from those 40,000 test packs that were sent out on 30 April, but I bet there will be a lot of official interest in today's figure in the hope that we are not seeing the beginning of something unexpected.
Attachment 3793Attachment 3794
Comparison between countries and different parts of the UK for excess deaths (i.e. all causes)
At the time of this data there were 22 k reported covid 19 deaths in the UK
Question yesterday asking why UK government is not making more clear what policies apply to England and where they are at a UK level: https://twitter.com/WillHayCardiff/s...31303497981953
Question completely dodged but, considering we had a thread on here about Boris Johnson announcing plans to re-open schools and only mention of England was separate point about CoE churches, it may be critical to things going forward.
On Twitter the response is from Scottish people echoing the statement and then other Scottish people, missing the point, wanting to stay part of the Union. It's important to recognise that we have devolution and whether you want more, less or same amount it's important that, at times of health crisis, information needs to be provided clearly so people know where they stand.
Ok it is the Lancet which has credibility issues, but we're all going to die from it. *
What's interesting is it seems a very nihilistic view. Whatever people do to prevent spread is ultimately pointless.
* Possibly.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...035-7/fulltext
This bit stuck out from that article:
A UK government spokesperson said: “This is an unprecedented global pandemic and we have taken the right steps at the right time to combat it, guided by the best scientific advice.
“The government has been working day and night to battle coronavirus, delivering a strategy designed to protect our NHS and save lives. Herd immunity has never been a policy or goal.”
a) Still banging on about how right we've been at every juncture and
b) The barefaced lie about herd immunity, the brazen cheek of denying that that was the original plan - The PM stood in front of the cameras and said so more than once
From "information" available now.
Italy's excess death count, for example, only goes to end of March.
The key predictions is "I expect that when we count the number of deaths from COVID-19 in each country in 1 year from now, the figures will be similar, regardless of measures taken.".
I'd tend to agree, whilst pointing out it's inevitable there will be variations for external factors, demographics etc.
I'd also say that nobody has focused on Africa, I suspect figures there in nations will make the effect on UK look like a broken toenail. Their final figures may well be horrendous.
The only time real comparisons can be made is in the long term, and only if all nations register cases / deaths identically. I'm highly sceptical of figures like South Korea. If something looks too good to be true, it generally isn't.
Can you provide the footage of Johnson standing in front of cameras and saying so more than once?
I know there's the editted clip from This Morning, where he explained the concept of herd immunity in this instance, the clip conveniently shutting off before he then said "but I don't agree with that".
If anything, I would label it a delayed peak. It would make a mockery of Johnson triumphantly saying "we are passed the peak" - a comment I thought would be better left following a week of a steady decline rather than a week of a flat line.
I suspect we will see a lifting of restrictions - I actually had an e-mail from a storage company yesterday saying restrictions WERE lifted - but that still seems to be premature when we have jsut recorded the third highest case rate in the short history of this. I am starting to suspect that the data that the modellers are relying on are the death figures (clouded by the sudden introduction of care home deaths), and hospital occupancy rates.
If I was someone on the "high risk" register, I'd be more concerned with active number of cases in my local area, if not nationally. I am not likely to say to my own parents "yep, you can go out now" just because the death rate is falling, but the number of people testing positive is increasing. If one of my parents gets it, I fear the worst.
No I'm not going to go trawling through the internet just before going to work, to try and prove a point to tell it like it is off the CCMB, who's opinion I care nothing about. You can pretend that herd immunity was not initially mooted 7 weeks ago to huge international criticism if you want, or don't, whatever. But to say it was never spoken about as a goal is absolute bullshit