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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jon1959
The good news keeps coming!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-him-to-resign
The headline polling figures are bad enough for Boris Johnson. Labour has a 10-point lead and the prime minister’s popularity is now at the same point as Theresa May’s at her lowest.
But digging beneath the surface, the latest Opinium poll for the Observer reveals a deeper and more serious problem: Johnson’s coalition of traditional Tories and pro-Brexit working-class voters is fracturing.
The poll shows that 46% of Leave voters who voted Conservative in 2019 believe Johnson should resign, compared with 39% who want him to stay. These people are the core of the prime minister’s base and if they desert him, he is sunk.
Can we have thread about all the good things a Labour Government will bring us in 2024 ? Because I haven't seen one single comment to that effect. Forget all those loud 'shouty' words aka Hilts - what have I to look forward to - because forget the polls, Kier Starmer and Labour aren't ever going to form a Government.
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jon1959
The good news keeps coming!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-him-to-resign
The headline polling figures are bad enough for Boris Johnson. Labour has a 10-point lead and the prime minister’s popularity is now at the same point as Theresa May’s at her lowest.
But digging beneath the surface, the latest Opinium poll for the Observer reveals a deeper and more serious problem: Johnson’s coalition of traditional Tories and pro-Brexit working-class voters is fracturing.
The poll shows that 46% of Leave voters who voted Conservative in 2019 believe Johnson should resign, compared with 39% who want him to stay. These people are the core of the prime minister’s base and if they desert him, he is sunk.
labour aren't picking up the deserting Tory voters though, they are going from Tory to "don't know", which suggests that many of them will return once Boris has been removed
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rjk
labour aren't picking up the deserting Tory voters though, they are going from Tory to "don't know", which suggests that many of them will return once Boris has been removed
The looming cost of living crisis, tax hikes and a general feeling of gloom might shift those figures a bit. Also, Johnson or not, there's still bags of time for the Tories to pull a few dodgy tricks out of the hat. Furthermore, they're no longer surfing on a Brexit wave. Plenty of scope for change and to make Monkfish happy!
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rjk
labour aren't picking up the deserting Tory voters though, they are going from Tory to "don't know", which suggests that many of them will return once Boris has been removed
Labour are up to 42 per cent in the latest poll, so they’re picking up votes from somewhere.
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
Quote:
Originally Posted by
A Quiet Monkfish
Can we have thread about all the good things a Labour Government will bring us in 2024 ? Because I haven't seen one single comment to that effect. Forget all those loud 'shouty' words aka Hilts - what have I to look forward to - because forget the polls, Kier Starmer and Labour aren't ever going to form a Government.
Not being the Conservative party will do for me for now.
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rjk
labour aren't picking up the deserting Tory voters though, they are going from Tory to "don't know", which suggests that many of them will return once Boris has been removed
That was true up until early December - when Labour were getting narrow leads in most polls. Since then the pollsters have seen clear evidence of Tory to Labour switches - both ex Red Wall voters and also some more traditional southern Tory voters (along with switches to the Lib Dems).
I'm no fan of Starmer and have parted company with the Labour Party (although it is very difficult to resign - they still record me as a member 3-4 months after I quit) but I do think a tipping point has been passed. The odds are heavily against Johnson surviving as Tory leader and Prime Minister for the rest of this year.
I can't see Labour beating the Tories given recent history, but I can see the Tories beating the Tories and Labour coming through by default.
A new Tory leader will produce a 'new manager bounce' but none of the potential candidates have the ability or experience or charisma needed, and some are totally toxic even to die hard Tory members. Johnson expelled most of the real talent over Brexit.
Mind you Starmer managed to push out a third of Labour's members in less than 2 years - including the youngest and most active ones - so some of the most effective opposition is online, in single issue campaigns and in other non-traditional places.
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jon1959
That was true up until early December - when Labour were getting narrow leads in most polls. Since then the pollsters have seen clear evidence of Tory to Labour switches - both ex Red Wall voters and also some more traditional southern Tory voters (along with switches to the Lib Dems).
I'm no fan of Starmer and have parted company with the Labour Party (although it is very difficult to resign - they still record me as a member 3-4 months after I quit) but I do think a tipping point has been passed. The odds are heavily against Johnson surviving as Tory leader and Prime Minister for the rest of this year.
I can't see Labour beating the Tories given recent history, but I can see the Tories beating the Tories and Labour coming through by default.
A new Tory leader will produce a 'new manager bounce' but none of the potential candidates have the ability or experience or charisma needed, and some are totally toxic even to die hard Tory members. Johnson expelled most of the real talent over Brexit.
Mind you Starmer managed to push out a third of Labour's members in less than 2 years - including the youngest and most active ones - so some of the most effective opposition is online, in single issue campaigns and in other non-traditional places.
If Labour are canny they'll start thinking about planning tactical voting campaigns with the Lib Dems and Greens well before an election comes into sight. It's probably the essential step to ensure the Tories are ousted. Once that hurdle has been overcome it will allow Labour longer term planning to make itself more distinctive. However, I think the far sighted plan would be to encourage the adoption of proportional representation.
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dorcus
If Labour are canny they'll start thinking about planning tactical voting campaigns with the Lib Dems and Greens well before an election comes into sight. It's probably the essential step to ensure the Tories are ousted. Once that hurdle has been overcome it will allow Labour longer term planning to make itself more distinctive. However, I think the far sighted plan would be to encourage the adoption of proportional representation.
80% of Constituency Labour Parties backed the PR resolution at the September 2021 Labour Conference.
It was defeated.
The majority of affiliates (mainly trades unions - but others too) voted against.
There was no support from the party leadership, despite Starmer's pledge during the leadership election campaign. Another of his broken promises!
https://labourlist.org/2021/09/confe...epresentation/
Most recent YouGov polling shows 42% public support for PR (up to 62% among Labour voters). That is without any recent noticeable national campaign to make the case.
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jon1959
80% of Constituency Labour Parties backed the PR resolution at the September 2021 Labour Conference.
It was defeated.
The majority of affiliates (mainly trades unions - but others too) voted against.
There was no support from the party leadership, despite Starmer's pledge during the leadership election campaign. Another of his broken promises!
https://labourlist.org/2021/09/confe...epresentation/
Most recent YouGov polling shows 42% public support for PR (up to 62% among Labour voters). That is without any recent noticeable national campaign to make the case.
Yes it seems there's an awful long way to go. Maybe we should have Dominic Cummings driving a big red bus to sell the campaign to the public. 😁
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
Quote:
Originally Posted by
the other bob wilson
Not being the Conservative party will do for me for now.
Exactly. It will all fade into the distance - cheese, wine, Cummings, who said what, who knew what - and folk will look at Labour in 2024 and say 'no thanks'. Assuming the Tories can deal with the economic problems ahead, of course.
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
Quote:
Originally Posted by
A Quiet Monkfish
Exactly. It will all fade into the distance - cheese, wine, Cummings, who said what, who knew what - and folk will look at Labour in 2024 and say 'no thanks'. Assuming the Tories can deal with the economic problems ahead, of course.
You really think people will be more concerned with economics than their memories of Covid in two years time? All I can say is I hope and trust you’re wrong.
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
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Originally Posted by
the other bob wilson
You really think people will be more concerned with economics than their memories of Covid in two years time? All I can say is I hope and trust you’re wrong.
I certainly think 'partygate' will feel insignificant in two years time. Covid, probably not but I don't think that will decide the next election.
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
Quote:
Originally Posted by
A Quiet Monkfish
I certainly think 'partygate' will feel insignificant in two years time. Covid, probably not but I don't think that will decide the next election.
The deep and long lasting cost of living crisis might though. And I'm sure you'd agree there's still plenty more time for many more Tory f**k ups!
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
The latest YouGov poll was done well before today's 'defeated' pool interview with Beth Rigby for Sky and all the other broadcasters. The verdict from across the press and much of the politicals and commentators of all colours was 'end game'!
64% of Britons now think Johnson should stand down, up from 48% in November
Should remain: 20% (-11)
Should stand down: 64% (+16)
I think he could still wriggle out of this - but the wriggle room is shrinking very fast!
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dorcus
The deep and long lasting cost of living crisis might though. And I'm sure you'd agree there's still plenty more time for many more Tory f**k ups!
No doubt. There's not much in the way of common sense and genuine political conviction in the Labour party. However there's even less amongst the Tories. To say I have little faith in them would be putting it extremely mildly !
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
Boris “nobody told me Johnson” is not the problem. The people who put him in power knew he was catastrophically ill-equipped for any kind of responsibility never mind run a country.
They'll still all be there next week. We need a general election now.
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
This may have been posted elsewhere but this is very funny and brutal https://twitter.com/bydonkeys/status...944671746?s=21
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
Edit - duplicate 'Led By Donkey' clip!
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jon1959
Edit - duplicate 'Led By Donkey' clip!
This monologue by James O’Brien is worth a listen too https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1483400025581531136?s=21
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
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Originally Posted by
ninian opinian
Very incisive; a masterful delivery.
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ninian opinian
Funny, but I also found it moving - these are hard times to maintain a faith in the belief that people are fundamentally decent, but they are, we’re not all like those some of us have put into power.
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
Quote:
Originally Posted by
the other bob wilson
Lie after lie. Then you get the people who parrot these lies on social media (like the one about how without Brexit the vaccine rollout would have been delayed) without doing their own research.
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Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Swiss Peter
Lie after lie. Then you get the people who parrot these lies on social media (like the one about how without Brexit the vaccine rollout would have been delayed) without doing their own research.
The very serious problem is that if these lies are shouted loudly enough and often enough
they become deeply etched in people's memory. Try shifting them then: it becomes virtually impossible.