-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Wozza16
Interesting point on BBC Wales last night that covid ended up really damaging Plaid, they had planned for a presidential style election campaign pitting Price against an unknown Drakeford but the immense media exposure Drakeford had doing daily press conferences helped labour massively. Also, because of the covid restrictions they lost months of potential canvassing and door knocking which is key to them as they don’t have the financial donors that labour and Tories do.
Plaid need 3-4 regional seats today to limit the damage but I can’t see more than 3 to be honest
I agree that the issue of Covid has helped Drakeford to a certain Degree, but it can work against a politician if they get enough wrong or if like some people think, he has no charisma etc. Drakeford has obviously got more right than wrong for most of the electorate.
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Wozza16
Interesting point on BBC Wales last night that covid ended up really damaging Plaid, they had planned for a presidential style election campaign pitting Price against an unknown Drakeford but the immense media exposure Drakeford had doing daily press conferences helped labour massively. Also, because of the covid restrictions they lost months of potential canvassing and door knocking which is key to them as they don’t have the financial donors that labour and Tories do.
Plaid need 3-4 regional seats today to limit the damage but I can’t see more than 3 to be honest
I
Every 5 years Plaid make excuses. The fact is they have gone backwards this time, not simply because MD had loads of media exposure, but also because the electorate does not completely buy into its independence narrative.
I know Adam Price is a poster boy to some on here, but he must take some responsibility. A rethink of strategy/leadership is needed.
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Tuerto
I agree that the issue of Covid has helped Drakeford to a certain Degree, but it can work against a politician if they get enough wrong or if like some people think, he has no charisma etc. Drakeford has obviously got more right than wrong for most of the electorate.
I don't know, Johnson got virtually everything wrong with Covid during 2020 and it didn't do him, or his party, any harm.
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
the other bob wilson
I don't know, Johnson got virtually everything wrong with Covid during 2020 and it didn't do him, or his party, any harm.
So did a lot of countries though, hard to see how you can prepare for such a catastrophic event well? The vaccine rollout has saved them though.
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Former Labour leader
I
Every 5 years Plaid make excuses. The fact is they have gone backwards this time, not simply because MD had loads of media exposure, but also because the electorate does not completely buy into its independence narrative.
I know Adam Price is a poster boy to some on here, but he must take some responsibility. A rethink of strategy/leadership is needed.
I'm genuinely surprised by how well Labour have done. I think there's been a fair amount of "anyone bar the Tories" about this election. There had been predictions that the Conservatives could even be the largest party in the Senedd or that they were at least going to make huge gains. I feel this election is as much a two-fingered salute to the Tories as it is any endorsement of Labour. Votes for Plaid were mainly going to affect Labour and I know of people who were torn between the two, who ended up voting Labour to ensure the Tories didn't get in through the back door.
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
the other bob wilson
I don't know, Johnson got virtually everything wrong with Covid during 2020 and it didn't do him, or his party, any harm.
What did Johnson get wrong that Drakeford didn't?
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
I'm genuinely surprised by how well Labour have done. I think there's been a fair amount of "anyone bar the Tories" about this election. There had been predictions that the Conservatives could even be the largest party in the Senedd or that they were at least going to make huge gains. I feel this election is as much a two-fingered salute to the Tories as it is any endorsement of Labour. Votes for Plaid were mainly going to affect Labour and I know of people who were torn between the two, who ended up voting Labour to ensure the Tories didn't get in through the back door.
Yes I agree. I wasnt going to vote. The thought of RT Davies as First Minister was so unthinkable that I voted.
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
LeningradCowboy
What did Johnson get wrong that Drakeford didn't?
Both got the majority wrong but at this date (this may change in future) I think we can say Drakeford got it less wrong than Boris in a couple of key areas:
Drakeford made a better fist of managing autumn/winter period by:
- implementing a fire-break when this was the advice of the scientists - Sunak and Boris listened to anti-covid scientists instead
- locking down the whole of Wales when more transmissible Kent variant recognised (see how tier system has been dropped in England since start of the new year)
- not sending schools back for one day
Over half the deaths experienced in the UK were in autumn/winter time when the most was known about the pandemic and Drakeford took stronger and earlier action to manage the number of deaths, though not as well as Sturgeon in Scotland.
In addition you could add:
- different rules for young children who were least at risk from a much earlier stage.
On the flips side you would argue:
- More open last summer in England which gave a timely boost to their economy
- More open outside earlier this year in England which is safer than inside
But I'd also argue:
- Scotland got the best approach in terms of recognising children and outside was safest the earliest
Each nation within the UK fecked up in the first wave, perhaps NI the least, but England or Northern Ireland fecked up the autumn/winter period the most even if they still all got things wrong.
Boris now acting more cautious than needs be so, in combination with successful vaccine roll-out, people forget how needlessly risky his government's actions were during autumn/winter when most was known about the virus.
At this time people haven't recognised downside of Drakeford's cautious approach, but that may hit during recovery if ours is slower/more difficult than in England's. It's likely that Labour will point more to Brexit and Tories more to management of Labour to confuse things.
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Drakeford was also more cautious and we didnt have the fust pumping bullsh!t like world class track and trace.
Lets not forget his unforgivable backing of Dominic Cummings
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Hilts
Yes I agree. I wasnt going to vote. The thought of RT Davies as First Minister was so unthinkable that I voted.
Do we have a strong Tory candidate in Wales? RT Davies is such a populist moron and highest profile of the rest are more interested in getting a peerage from PM than serving in Wales.
Conservative Wales should be a strong party but Tories are far, far more interested in winning English seats than Welsh ones.
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Where are these final 8 seats?!
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
LeningradCowboy
What did Johnson get wrong that Drakeford didn't?
Refusing to lockdown in the autumn, refusing to lockdown over Christmas, going on holiday during February 2020, not attending the first five Cobra meetings on Covid, ignoring scientific advice on shaking hands, attending rugby internationals at packed stadiums, messing up school returns, messing up track and trace, messing up exam results, messing up free meals for children ........
give me time, you caught me on the hop with that question.
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
the other bob wilson
Refusing to lockdown in the autumn, refusing to lockdown over Christmas, going on holiday during February 2020, not attending the first five Cobra meetings on Covid, ignoring scientific advice on shaking hands, attending rugby internationals at packed stadiums, messing up school returns, messing up track and trace, messing up exam results, messing up free meals for children ........
give me time, you caught me on the hop with that question.
Herd immunity
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Just listening to Radio Wales, seems Leanne Wood is/was a very sore loser, according to the other candidates
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
BBC reported that Tories won that list seat by 21, Nation.cymru reporting that it was Labour...
8 seats are soon. So far Green's have outperformed Abolish but South Wales East is probably the former's best chance which hasn't been called yet.
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Tuerto
I agree that the issue of Covid has helped Drakeford to a certain Degree, but it can work against a politician if they get enough wrong or if like some people think, he has no charisma etc. Drakeford has obviously got more right than wrong for most of the electorate.
Do agree, eyes will be on him now post Covid recovery as some areas of our country were failing pre Covid , great chance for his party to avoid becoming another North East England .
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
BLUETIT
Just listening to Radio Wales, seems Leanne Wood is/was a very sore loser, according to the other candidates
Much prefer Adam Price , Wales does appear not to have an appetite for Independence like Scotland ,w hich probably pleases both Tories and Labour me thinks 🤔
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
is this because you voted plaid
No. It’s because I’m fed up of the likes of you and your generation, you care more about the Conservatives than you do the people of Wales. We’ve had a lifetime of mediocrity and we’re falling behind. Regardless of who I want to govern, the current system is failing us. 5 more years of a Labour held Senydd and Tory Whitehall just means more of the same but hey ho the tories didn’t gain seats so all is good.
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
the other bob wilson
Refusing to lockdown in the autumn, refusing to lockdown over Christmas, going on holiday during February 2020, not attending the first five Cobra meetings on Covid, ignoring scientific advice on shaking hands, attending rugby internationals at packed stadiums, messing up school returns, messing up track and trace, messing up exam results, messing up free meals for children ........
give me time, you caught me on the hop with that question.
One thing Boris did get right was the gamble to thrust millions of tax payers money Into vaccine research, production and deployment, probably best in the world .
I clearly remember some doubting his decision including Sir Kier , as at the time there was no guarantee of success and there were calls to join the European model , glad he never 👍
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
life on mars
Much prefer Adam Price , Wales does appear not to have an appetite for Independence like Scotland ,w hich probably pleases both Tories and Labour me thinks
At the moment Tory policies/behaviour of Westminster push Scotland towards independence which in turn pushes England towards Tories. Tories flipping love growing independence voice.
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Mark Reckless and Neil Hamilton out of the Senedd!!
Two seats for Plaid Cymu and two seats for the Conservatives in South Wales East.
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
surge
Mark Reckless and Neil Hamilton out of the Senedd!!
Two seats for Plaid Cymu and two seats for the Conservatives in South Wales East.
Great news, good for Plaid to pick up a gain seat after the disappointing showing yesterday
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
When I think of Boris and his great achievements I remember after spending years saying that we need to get control of our borders, a pandemic came around and he left the borders open with Europe and the rest of the world ending up with 1000’s of needless deaths, disastrous economic damage and a huge amount of national debt. Inspirational.
2 trillion of debt but Wales is too poor to make its own decisions.
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Bruce Parry
No. It’s because I’m fed up of the likes of you and your generation, you care more about the Conservatives than you do the people of Wales. We’ve had a lifetime of mediocrity and we’re falling behind. Regardless of who I want to govern, the current system is failing us. 5 more years of a Labour held Senydd and Tory Whitehall just means more of the same but hey ho the tories didn’t gain seats so all is good.
Sore loser
Wales does not want plaid cymru
More people voted tory ff sake
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
South Wales Central result – as expected, two for the Conservatives, two for Plaid Cymru.
That’s Andrew RT Davies (Welsh Conservative), Rhys ap Owen (Plaid), Joel Stephen James (Welsh Conservative) and Heledd Fychan (Plaid Cymru).
https://nation.cymru/news/live-blog-...nedd-election/
Labour – 30 (+1)
Plaid Cymru – 13 (+1)
Conservatives – 16 (+5)
Lib Dems – 1 (-)
UKIP – 0 (-7)
On the face of it there doesn't seem to be any complete jokers in the Senedd. A couple of difficult years coming up now but each party could do a lot of good work (what's best for Wales from a Liberal, Tory, Plaid, Labour perspective rather than how do we pick up seats in Westminster) and we could have a really competitive race in 2026.
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Wozza16
Interesting point on BBC Wales last night that covid ended up really damaging Plaid, they had planned for a presidential style election campaign pitting Price against an unknown Drakeford but the immense media exposure Drakeford had doing daily press conferences helped labour massively. Also, because of the covid restrictions they lost months of potential canvassing and door knocking which is key to them as they don’t have the financial donors that labour and Tories do.
Plaid need 3-4 regional seats today to limit the damage but I can’t see more than 3 to be honest
Richard wyn Jones was ranting that Plaid aren't professional enough and he's right, they don't use data in the manner the other parties do, they allow petty squabbles to escalate and play favourites with candidates. Helen Mary Jones was a massive liability in a winnable seat in Llanelli but they stood with her for no apparent reason, they also threw the Cardiff North branch under the bus to try and protect Leanne Wood
It wasn't a disastrous night for Plaid but it was very poor and should serve as a wake up call. They've increased the vote share in a lot of places but been abysmal in their target seats. Aberconwy and Llanelli in particular were shocking whilst the swing in Rhondda was dreadful
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
life on mars
One thing Boris did get right was the gamble to thrust millions of tax payers money Into vaccine research, production and deployment, probably best in the world .
I clearly remember some doubting his decision including Sir Kier , as at the time there was no guarantee of success and there were calls to join the European model , glad he never 👍
Ah yes, the consolation goal - I did say it was like scoring when you were 20-0 down in the last few minutes, but that was unfair, credit to the PM and his party on the vaccine, so I’d say now that was like scoring a consolation goal when you’re losing 3-0.
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
life on mars
One thing Boris did get right was the gamble to thrust millions of tax payers money Into vaccine research, production and deployment, probably best in the world .
I clearly remember some doubting his decision including Sir Kier , as at the time there was no guarantee of success and there were calls to join the European model , glad he never 👍
He and the Westminster government did Wales no favours in the first few critical weeks of either the pandemic as regards PPE etc or with the first few critical weeks of the vaccine rollout as regards to supplies - we have the best vaccines rates in the UK despite Westminster not because of it
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
Sore loser
Wales does not want plaid cymru
More people voted tory ff sake
This is probably as much to do with people not understanding the voting system.
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Nobody's Rep
He and the Westminster government did Wales no favours in the first few critical weeks of either the pandemic as regards PPE etc or with the first few critical weeks of the vaccine rollout as regards to supplies - we have the best vaccines rates in the UK despite Westminster not because of it
And when it comes to the economy, NHS and education we are 4th in the UK on every count. Not because of Westminster but an underachieving Welsh labour government
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DubaiDai
And when it comes to the economy, NHS and education we are 4th in the UK on every count. Not because of Westminster but an underachieving Welsh labour government
Well to be fair , much of it is
Wales is given a poor deal money wise from Westminster to deal with the NHS etc
If you are trying to build a house that is going to cost 200 grand but are only given 100 grand to do it what sort of quality house do you think you would come up with ?
I think its a fair chance it wouldn't be up to standard wouldn't it ?
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DubaiDai
And when it comes to the economy, NHS and education we are 4th in the UK on every count. Not because of Westminster but an underachieving Welsh labour government
Any links to back that up?
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DubaiDai
And when it comes to the economy, NHS and education we are 4th in the UK on every count. Not because of Westminster but an underachieving Welsh labour government
Certainly aren't 4th on the NHS - far from it and as far as the economy is concerned how can you use that for comparison when we don't have full control of our financial affairs?
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
City123
Richard wyn Jones was ranting that Plaid aren't professional enough and he's right, they don't use data in the manner the other parties do, they allow petty squabbles to escalate and play favourites with candidates. Helen Mary Jones was a massive liability in a winnable seat in Llanelli but they stood with her for no apparent reason, they also threw the Cardiff North branch under the bus to try and protect Leanne Wood
It wasn't a disastrous night for Plaid but it was very poor and should serve as a wake up call. They've increased the vote share in a lot of places but been abysmal in their target seats. Aberconwy and Llanelli in particular were shocking whilst the swing in Rhondda was dreadful
You talk about individuals but I would suggest that the vast, vast majority of people look at the overall party and leader only.
Hefin David won Caerphilly for Labour. I don’t know a single person that knows what he’s for or against, or what he’s done
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
WJ99mobile
You talk about individuals but I would suggest that the vast, vast majority of people look at the overall party and leader only.
Hefin David won Caerphilly for Labour. I don’t know a single person that knows what he’s for or against, or what he’s done
I think that's right
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
Well to be fair , much of it is
Wales is given a poor deal money wise from Westminster to deal with the NHS etc
If you are trying to build a house that is going to cost 200 grand but are only given 100 grand to do it what sort of quality house do you think you would come up with ?
I think its a fair chance it wouldn't be up to standard wouldn't it ?
I don't know where the 200 grand comes from. Last year we spent in Wales about 8 billion on the NHS. That's around £2,500 per adult.
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
lisvaneblue
I don't know where the 200 grand comes from. Last year we spent in Wales about 8 billion on the NHS. That's around £2,500 per adult.
Should say £2500 per PERSON
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
lisvaneblue
Should say £2500 per PERSON
I was trying to make it simple for you
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
lisvaneblue
I don't know where the 200 grand comes from. Last year we spent in Wales about 8 billion on the NHS. That's around £2,500 per adult.
I grasped it:hehe:
-
Re: Senedd election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
WJ99mobile
You talk about individuals but I would suggest that the vast, vast majority of people look at the overall party and leader only.
Hefin David won Caerphilly for Labour. I don’t know a single person that knows what he’s for or against, or what he’s done
The two I mentioned are known, Llanelli is a marginal, HMJ has held it before and has had a number of controversies that have received national attention, her vote share went down 8%. Leanne Wood also has a high profile.
I agree with you in general though, it was more of a point on Plaid's shoddy management