Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%

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Originally Posted by lisvaneblue

This is where comparisons become difficult because different governments are doing similar things at different times. Are we in Wales better at managing the virus? are the population more compliant? or are we following the same path as England but on a different time line?

Are where does 'common sense' as BoJo calls it fit in. This message board is alive with people who have taken the plunge with season tickets. Some must be over 50, maybe over 60 and in the high risk group should they catch Covid. Why take the chance?, cold weather to come, crowded trains, full pubs, pinch points on entrance and exit to the ground.

They do it because they have hopefully weighed up the risks and decided it's worth it. No different really to what governments in the UK do on behalf on the population. No different really to the crowds who gather in the Bay, or rush to the beach.

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People want to believe "good news stories". Probably against my better judgement, I went ahead and bought a season ticket and part of my reason for that was a perception that things were getting better because of the way the virus was being reported at the time - nevertheless, I had little confidence that I would actually get to many games either because I decided it was unsafe or, more likely, I would not be allowed to attend. Therefore, if I'm being honest, my ticket is more a way of ensuring I would at least be able to watch our home matches next season.

My decision was partly influenced by what I was hearing from both UK and Welsh Governments and, for me, events are proving that the attitude and presentation of information has been much more realistic and measured from the latter than it has been from the former. Johnson for me is someone who wants to be telling people that things are going to be fine because it makes him more popular, but the stakes are very high when it comes to the virus and he's struggled to appreciate this. I can remember him predicting we would have the virus on the run by the end of May, there have been various "game changing" and "world beating" schemes and breakthroughs that have been quietly shelved because they have been shown to be anything but that and now he is having to announce a "squeezing of the brakes" a week or so after he was telling us that he thought things would be back to normal by Christmas.

Drakeford may be dull by comparison with Johnson, but I would prefer he and his Government's approach to the Pandemic than that of Johnson and his crew who is seems have a problem understanding that it's probably best not to promise what you cannot be sure you can deliver.

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

People want to believe "good news stories". Probably against my better judgement, I went ahead and bought a season ticket and part of my reason for that was a perception that things were getting better because of the way the virus was being reported at the time - nevertheless, I had little confidence that I would actually get to many games either because I decided it was unsafe or, more likely, I would not be allowed to attend. Therefore, if I'm being honest, my ticket is more a way of ensuring I would at least be able to watch our home matches next season.

My decision was partly influenced by what I was hearing from both UK and Welsh Governments and, for me, events are proving that the attitude and presentation of information has been much more realistic and measured from the latter than it has been from the former. Johnson for me is someone who wants to be telling people that things are going to be fine because it makes him more popular, but the stakes are very high when it comes to the virus and he's struggled to appreciate this. I can remember him predicting we would have the virus on the run by the end of May, there have been various "game changing" and "world beating" schemes and breakthroughs that have been quietly shelved because they have been shown to be anything but that and now he is having to announce a "squeezing of the brakes" a week or so after he was telling us that he thought things would be back to normal by Christmas.



Drakeford may be dull by comparison with Johnson, but I would prefer he and his Government's approach to the Pandemic than that of Johnson and his crew who is seems have a problem understanding that it's probably best not to promise what you cannot be sure you can deliver.

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Your comments about Boris are appropriate. He's proving to be a bit of a showman and not just with Covid. Im not sure that Drakeford is any better overall with his cautious approach and some decisions are questionable to say the least. You know my views on the 5 mile rule, then there is the reluctance to make masks compulsory in shops in Wales, and passive approach to testing and T&Trace.

People on this board often say that they prefer our cautious approach and in the end the results are better. You can prove anything with statistics, but comparing results of 5% of the UK population v 80% of the UK population one has to show an outstanding difference in results for it to be valid. And we can't.

An example of the magnitude of this is England's 'local lockdown' in Greater Manchester and surrounds which actually covers more people than the population of Wales.

Good luck with the season ticket. At my ripe old age I wanted to defer, but my son who sits next to me is not allowed to do the same, so we both decided to wait a while and hopefully get half season tickets if the virus is 'on the run' by year end.

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Originally Posted by lisvaneblue

Your comments about Boris are appropriate. He's proving to be a bit of a showman and not just with Covid. Im not sure that Drakeford is any better overall with his cautious approach and some decisions are questionable to say the least. You know my views on the 5 mile rule, then there is the reluctance to make masks compulsory in shops in Wales, and passive approach to testing and T&Trace.

People on this board often say that they prefer our cautious approach and in the end the results are better. You can prove anything with statistics, but comparing results of 5% of the UK population v 80% of the UK population one has to show an outstanding difference in results for it to be valid. And we can't.

An example of the magnitude of this is England's 'local lockdown' in Greater Manchester and surrounds which actually covers more people than the population of Wales.

Good luck with the season ticket. At my ripe old age I wanted to defer, but my son who sits next to me is not allowed to do the same, so we both decided to wait a while and hopefully get half season tickets if the virus is 'on the run' by year end.

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as you say Wales has 5% of the population, but only 3.3% of the deaths definitely does show a significant difference, these are not small sample sizes we are talking about.
A t test or similar should show that very easily

I honestly cant believe anyone thinks its better for people in hot spots to be allowed to travel anywhere rather than stay within 5 miles of their home.

How anyone can criticize Drakeford compared to the babbling idiot in Westminster is beyond me. Slow and steady wins every time.

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Originally Posted by Rjk

as you say Wales has 5% of the population, but only 3.3% of the deaths definitely does show a significant difference, these are not small sample sizes we are talking about.
A t test or similar should show that very easily

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You need to await the updated figures from PHE before you can say that for certain. Remember that they, stupidly in my opinion, have been counting all deaths from people who have ever had Covid-19, even if they for example died by being run over by a bus.

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Originally Posted by Hilts

I honestly cant believe anyone thinks its better for people in hot spots to be allowed to travel anywhere rather than stay within 5 miles of their home.

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Imagine if Wuhan had put a 5 mile limit at the start of this crisis.

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Originally Posted by lisvaneblue

You need to await the updated figures from PHE before you can say that for certain. Remember that they, stupidly in my opinion, have been counting all deaths from people who have ever had Covid-19, even if they for example died by being run over by a bus.

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I hear this a lot, is there actually a recorded incident of a bloke killed by a bus being counted as a stat? One thing is plain, there were a large number of excess deaths during the pandemic and, whilst it could be a coincidence, Id wager it isn't.

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Originally Posted by lisvaneblue

You need to await the updated figures from PHE before you can say that for certain. Remember that they, stupidly in my opinion, have been counting all deaths from people who have ever had Covid-19, even if they for example died by being run over by a bus.

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That's not going to be in the thousands though, is it?

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Originally Posted by lisvaneblue

You need to await the updated figures from PHE before you can say that for certain. Remember that they, stupidly in my opinion, have been counting all deaths from people who have ever had Covid-19, even if they for example died by being run over by a bus.

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as long as there aren't any significant differences in reporting of deaths between Wales and England (and I don't think there are) then you can calculate it using a z test. there is a large difference in the proportions, way more than could be explained by people being hit by buses.

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Originally Posted by lardy

That's not going to be in the thousands though, is it?

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Its going to be zero.

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Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO

Imagine if Wuhan had put a 5 mile limit at the start of this crisis.

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I knew people in Wuhan and they basically had to stay at home for about a month. and weren't allowed outside without masks or being challenged about where they were going. their lockdown was way stricer than anything we have seen

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Originally Posted by lardy

That's not going to be in the thousands though, is it?

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Matt Hancock has ordered an investigation into it as it is so significant. Yes it could run into many thousands. England has done a better job of testing the population than us and pHE count in anybody who has tested positive, even if with no symptoms. If such a person dies of anything it is counted as a Covid death.

In Scotland they do it differently and only count if died within 28 days of having/ tested + for Covid.

Don't know what Wales does as can't find the detail.

But you can start to see why it is so difficult to make valid comparisons

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Originally Posted by lisvaneblue

Matt Hancock has ordered an investigation into it as it is so significant. Yes it could run into many thousands. England has done a better job of testing the population than us and pHE count in anybody who has tested positive, even if with no symptoms. If such a person dies of anything it is counted as a Covid death.

In Scotland they do it differently and only count if died within 28 days of having/ tested + for Covid.

Don't know what Wales does as can't find the detail.

But you can start to see why it is so difficult to make valid comparisons

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if you look how many people would need to have been incorrectly attributed to covid to make the 2 populations the same it would be in the tens of thousands, and in itself it would be noticeably above the average number of deaths for this time of year

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Originally Posted by lisvaneblue

You need to await the updated figures from PHE before you can say that for certain. Remember that they, stupidly in my opinion, have been counting all deaths from people who have ever had Covid-19, even if they for example died by being run over by a bus.

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I understand that the most relevant comparator of the impact of Covid-19 is the excess death rates against a 5 year average, which takes out any differences in methods of recording a Covid death of the type you describe.

The ONS has recently published an analysis of the all-cause mortality across European countries which includes breakdown for the different parts of the UK. Table 4 shows the percentage increase between England and Wales which is significant and help understanding of the relative success in managing the virus across the UK.


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...uarytojune2020

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Originally Posted by Rjk

I knew people in Wuhan and they basically had to stay at home for about a month. and weren't allowed outside without masks or being challenged about where they were going. their lockdown was way stricer than anything we have seen

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Yes, we were asked to stay at home as well and that ran into several weeks. Plus travel only if essential and then only 5 miles max, unless for work, medical help etc. I agree with the stay at home but not the 5 mile rule

In Cardiff for example 5 mile rule meant I couldn't even cross the city, and Cardiff had a high incidence with about 1 person in every 150 having caught the virus.
So not being able to travel I join the queue at the local supermarket knowing that there is a better than average chance of me bumping into someone with the virus. akin to saying that if you want to get rundown stand on a busy road.
I know it's counter intuitive but the idea that its better to stay in the cooking pot than risk spreading it elsewhere is a nonsense and will likely increase the rate of transmission locally.
And if it was such a successful idea why are they not now applying it in Wrexham.....Why...because there is no evidence that it was necessary or effective

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Originally Posted by cyril evans awaydays

I understand that the most relevant comparator of the impact of Covid-19 is the excess death rates against a 5 year average, which takes out any differences in methods of recording a Covid death of the type you describe.

The ONS has recently published an analysis of the all-cause mortality across European countries which includes breakdown for the different parts of the UK. Table 4 shows the percentage increase between England and Wales which is significant and help understanding of the relative success in managing the virus across the UK.


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...uarytojune2020

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It might help the understanding but is it valid as we are looking at 5% v the other 95%.

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Originally Posted by lisvaneblue

It might help the understanding but is it valid as we are looking at 5% v the other 95%.

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yes

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Originally Posted by Rjk

yes

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So why does the ONS data have deaths in Wales as 2491, nearly 1000 more than the official PHW data which is reported daily

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Originally Posted by lisvaneblue

So why does the ONS data have deaths in Wales as 2491, nearly 1000 more than the official PHW data which is reported daily

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and the equivalent figures for England?

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Originally Posted by lisvaneblue

It might help the understanding but is it valid as we are looking at 5% v the other 95%.

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Not quite sure the point you are making other than Wales is a smaller country with a much smaller population than England

These stats are the percentage increases for the whole population of England (84% of total UK) and the whole of Wales (5%) of UK. There is no more extrapolating or statistical margins of error to take into consideration as the official statisticians for the UK have taken the total official recorded deaths in a period and compared it with the most recent 5 year average.

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Originally Posted by Rjk

and the equivalent figures for England?

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It seems that the PHE data is comprehensive in that it includes hospital deaths, Public Health Protection team deaths, deaths in anyone that has had a lab confirmed test ( ie the man that got knocked down by a bus) plus ONS reported deaths.

PHW data is hospital and care home deaths only.

So the true figure for Wales to accurately compare to England is 2491 not 1565.

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Originally Posted by lisvaneblue

It seems that the PHE data is comprehensive in that it includes hospital deaths, Public Health Protection team deaths, deaths in anyone that has had a lab confirmed test ( ie the man that got knocked down by a bus) plus ONS reported deaths.

PHW data is hospital and care home deaths only.

So the true figure for Wales to accurately compare to England is 2491 not 1565.

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if you look at official covid deaths OR total excess deaths as a proportion of population for England and Wales the populations are statistically different with England being higher.

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Originally Posted by Rjk

as long as there aren't any significant differences in reporting of deaths between Wales and England (and I don't think there are) then you can calculate it using a z test. there is a large difference in the proportions, way more than could be explained by people being hit by buses.

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You said Wales had 5% population and only 3.3% of the deaths,. Im saying that the 1565 figure you probably used cannot be compared to the England figure. Use 2491 and then see what you come up with

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Originally Posted by lisvaneblue

You said Wales had 5% population and only 3.3% of the deaths,. Im saying that the 1565 figure you probably used cannot be compared to the England figure. Use 2491 and then see what you come up with

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see my last post

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Originally Posted by Rjk

see my last post

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I did. Using the comparative updated PHW data the UK death total today is 47136. Wales deaths sadly 2491.

That's 5.28% of the total, about average for our population size. Certainly well above the 3.3% you mentioned.

As far as the ONS report from Cyril the coaches is concerned I looked at it briefly and noted that whilst Wales had less excess deaths than England in the Jan- June 2020 period there were a lot of important variables not included. The level of obesity in patients treated, the BAME status...these are things that we already know make a significant difference to outcomes.

At the end of all this none of the UK home countries has done very well in handling this pandemic, and its not over yet!

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Originally Posted by lisvaneblue

I did. Using the comparative updated PHW data the UK death total today is 47136. Wales deaths sadly 2491.

That's 5.28% of the total, about average for our population size. Certainly well above the 3.3% you mentioned.

As far as the ONS report from Cyril the coaches is concerned I looked at it briefly and noted that whilst Wales had less excess deaths than England in the Jan- June 2020 period there were a lot of important variables not included. The level of obesity in patients treated, the BAME status...these are things that we already know make a significant difference to outcomes.

At the end of all this none of the UK home countries has done very well in handling this pandemic, and its not over yet!

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you are comparing different things there, the 2491 figure is all deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned at all, whereas the 47136 is where covid is deemed to be the cause of death.
the total figure for the uk where covid is mentioned is a lot higher, and the figure for wales where covid is deemed to be the cause of death is around about 1500.
You shouldn't combine the two

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Originally Posted by Rjk

you are comparing different things there, the 2491 figure is all deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned at all, whereas the 47136 is where covid is deemed to be the cause of death.
the total figure for the uk where covid is mentioned is a lot higher, and the figure for wales where covid is deemed to be the cause of death is around about 1500.
You shouldn't combine the two

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see easier post which shows PHE data sources and PHW data sources. Im trying to compare apples with apples. The 2491 figure for Wales is comparable to the PHE figures for data sources, and the PHW site itself states that the Wales data is only for hospital and care homes so not complete

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Originally Posted by Rjk

you are comparing different things there, the 2491 figure is all deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned at all, whereas the 47136 is where covid is deemed to be the cause of death.
the total figure for the uk where covid is mentioned is a lot higher, and the figure for wales where covid is deemed to be the cause of death is around about 1500.
You shouldn't combine the two

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Aren’t the figures where COVID is said be the cause of death untrustworthy as well. People who were on the verge of dying with other illnesses who tested positive for COVID just ticked off as a COVID death.

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Originally Posted by Michael Morris

Aren’t the figures where COVID is said be the cause of death untrustworthy as well. People who were on the verge of dying with other illnesses who tested positive for COVID just ticked off as a COVID death.

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I think the total excess deaths is the most sensible comparison.

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Originally Posted by lisvaneblue

see easier post which shows PHE data sources and PHW data sources. Im trying to compare apples with apples. The 2491 figure for Wales is comparable to the PHE figures for data sources, and the PHW site itself states that the Wales data is only for hospital and care homes so not complete

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No, you are comparing a figure for all cases that mention covid 19 to all ones that deem it to be the cause of death

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Originally Posted by Michael Morris

Aren’t the figures where COVID is said be the cause of death untrustworthy as well. People who were on the verge of dying with other illnesses who tested positive for COVID just ticked off as a COVID death.

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Yes, the England figures include anyone who ever tested positive for Covid whether treated or asymptomatic. If they died from other causes like an accident or heart attack they are included as Covid deaths.

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Originally Posted by lisvaneblue

Yes, the England figures include anyone who ever tested positive for Covid whether treated or asymptomatic. If they died from other causes like an accident or heart attack they are included as Covid deaths.

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the cleanest data is the excess deaths, which Wales accounts for about 3% of the total for the UK

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Originally Posted by Rjk

No, you are comparing a figure for all cases that mention covid 19 to all ones that deem it to be the cause of death

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The PHW data is tested or suspected who died in hospital or nursing homes. The ONS data all deaths where covid confirmed or suspected. The Wales official figures are the PHW ones, The England official figures include the broader group including ONS data.
For comparison the Wales ONS data must be used to compare with England PHE data.

The PHW website explains their calculations very clearly

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Originally Posted by lisvaneblue

I did. Using the comparative updated PHW data the UK death total today is 47136. Wales deaths sadly 2491.

That's 5.28% of the total, about average for our population size. Certainly well above the 3.3% you mentioned.

As far as the ONS report from Cyril the coaches is concerned I looked at it briefly and noted that whilst Wales had less excess deaths than England in the Jan- June 2020 period there were a lot of important variables not included. The level of obesity in patients treated, the BAME status...these are things that we already know make a significant difference to outcomes.

At the end of all this none of the UK home countries has done very well in handling this pandemic, and its not over yet!

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This is taken directly from the ONS site on the latest numbers by country that gives the like for like comparison that Rjk is referencing.

In England, including deaths that occurred up to 17 July 2020 but were registered up to 25 July, of those we have processed so far, the number involving COVID-19 was 48,790; the comparative number of death notifications reported by the DHSC on GOV.UK was 40,680.

In Wales, including deaths that occurred up to 17 July but were registered up to 25 July, of those we have processed so far, the number involving COVID-19 was 2,501; the comparative number of death notifications reported by the DHSC on GOV.UK was 1,546 and PHW numbers, which come from the same source as the DHSC figures but are continuously updated, showed 1,547 deaths.

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Originally Posted by Jimmy the Jock

There is no cure .

There wont be a vaccine for some time .

For the country to move forward and get back on its feet , on the whole ,we all have to get it .

Once the number of deaths drop below a certain point , restrictions will be lifted and we will start again.

The deaths are being controlled , which is of course sensible .

The hospital in the millennium stadium is a sign of things to come .

The only positive I can think about it at the moment is a lot of us have had it and aren't aware.

Anyone disagree with my interpretation of the current situation ?

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There will be a vaccine within twelve months.

Experts say it is mutating into a less dangerous virus and less and less people will die from it, so it will become less of a problem over time, until next year when we can vaccinate against it.

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Originally Posted by Bluebina

There will be a vaccine within twelve months.

Experts say it is mutating into a less dangerous virus and less and less people will die from it, so it will become less of a problem over time, until next year when we can vaccinate against it.

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I didn't check the date of the post, but some people still believe this is the case, and many people say they wouldn't have the vaccine anyway!