Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

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Originally Posted by life on mars

I do agree .

The other worthless reported matter are graphs by country, it's never going to match whilst countries report differently , they a have different links to the outside world , some have ageing communities, different ethnicities, obesity, diabetics , Immne systems , reporting of covid on death certs are different , some countries have less care homes , some countries are less dense than ours , etc etc .

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Does basing comparisons on excess deaths help to deal with these variables as suggested by the government?

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Originally Posted by lisvaneblue

I think most people are happy with it as a key indicator of where we are......

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Although the 'R' number hasn't exactly been a regular topic of conversation with the people I've been encountering during the last ten weeks, when it has been discussed (admittedly only on a couple of occasions with a small group of people) the verdict has been unanimous - confusing, don't really get it, etc.

Today, England’s deputy chief medical officer said live on TV: "This virus has a natural R number of 3. One case will infect three more people."

That'll do for me and, I suspect, most others.

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

Although the 'R' number hasn't exactly been a regular topic of conversation with the people I've been encountering during the last ten weeks, when it has been discussed (admittedly only on a couple of occasions with a small group of people) the verdict has been unanimous - confusing, don't really get it, etc.

Today, England’s deputy chief medical officer said live on TV: "This virus has a natural R number of 3. One case will infect three more people."

That'll do for me and, I suspect, most others.

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It’s a virus looking for hosts, and unchallenged it’ll move from one host to three others, mainly through close human to human contact. In relatively few moves it can spread rapidly 1 infects 3, 3-9, 9-27, 27-54 etc

By reducing human to human contact, plus good hygiene we reduce the chance of it finding hosts, to the degree that one person with virus spreads it, on average, to less than one person, so eventually it can’t find hosts and disappears. The balance easing lockdown is to ensure that we keep the chances of it infecting people under control...ie R less than 1

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Originally Posted by lisvaneblue

It’s a virus looking for hosts, and unchallenged it’ll move from one host to three others, mainly through close human to human contact. In relatively few moves it can spread rapidly 1 infects 3, 3-9, 9-27, 27-54 etc

By reducing human to human contact, plus good hygiene we reduce the chance of it finding hosts, to the degree that one person with virus spreads it, on average, to less than one person, so eventually it can’t find hosts and disappears. The balance easing lockdown is to ensure that we keep the chances of it infecting people under control...ie R less than 1

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Sorry about my maths...27 -81.....

It's fascinating in that the virus, like all living organisms (apart from Sludge Factory) lives in order to reproduce but it either kills its hosts or finds that its hosts survives the attack of the virus.....

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Originally Posted by Taunton Blue Genie

It's fascinating in that the virus, like all living organisms (apart from Sludge Factory) lives in order to reproduce but it either kills its hosts or finds that its hosts survives the attack of the virus.....

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Just like humans with the planet Earth.

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Originally Posted by lisvaneblue

It’s a virus looking for hosts, and unchallenged it’ll move from one host to three others, mainly through close human to human contact. In relatively few moves it can spread rapidly 1 infects 3, 3-9, 9-27, 27-54 etc

By reducing human to human contact, plus good hygiene we reduce the chance of it finding hosts, to the degree that one person with virus spreads it, on average, to less than one person, so eventually it can’t find hosts and disappears. The balance easing lockdown is to ensure that we keep the chances of it infecting people under control...ie R less than 1

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On average. There is nothing to prevent one person (with no symptoms) infecting 20 others.

a cardiff city member of staff tests positive

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52863552

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-52864454

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Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO

On average. There is nothing to prevent one person (with no symptoms) infecting 20 others.

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No but by the same token a person could have it and not spread it at all due to good hand hygiene and social distancing practices, hence the average balancing out

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

I do understand the concept (at least to a degree), but I think it's something the scientists, medical experts and politicians should have kept to themselves rather than make a key factor in their public discussions about the pandemic. I don't think it's helped at all. Indeed, I think it's not only confused the issue but it may have even given some people a false sense of security.

If they had said at the outset that if you have this virus you are likely to infect at least three more people and simply left it at that, I think the public would have understood it and the message would have been far more effective. However, by talking about getting the 'R' number down, saying stuff like 'the R is now between 0.5 and 0.8,' and displaying graphics claiming that one infected person is now infecting just 0.6 others, they've served only to complicate the issue.

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What’s happened to the Covid Alert System? As I thought this was the public guide as to when restrictions would be relaxed as it combined ‘R’ with number of cases.

There was a bit of fanfare that we were progressing towards level 3. It was presented daily at one stage but has disappeared as far as I can tell since 22nd May.

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Originally Posted by delmbox

No but by the same token a person could have it and not spread it at all due to good hand hygiene and social distancing practices, hence the average balancing out

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Let's be honest, the 'R' number is pure guesswork anyway, sin't it? How could it be anything else if you can have the virus and not even know about it?

Preston striker Jayden Stockley has apparently tested positive. He's apparently asymptomatic and feeling no ill effect, and said: "It came as a complete shock. I got a call from the doctor when I came back from training. I felt brilliant, put a good session in and his number came up. We were aware we would get a call if our test was positive and I was thinking 'no, surely not', but he told me and it was a surreal moment."

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Originally Posted by Baloo

What’s happened to the Covid Alert System? As I thought this was the public guide as to when restrictions would be relaxed as it combined ‘R’ with number of cases.

There was a bit of fanfare that we were progressing towards level 3. It was presented daily at one stage but has disappeared as far as I can tell since 22nd May.

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I think Boris & Co have just about given up on the pretense that they're following the science. They're just letting things gradually return to normal and to be honest I don't think they've got much option to do otherwise given the hopeless mess they've made of the situation since the outset.

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Originally Posted by Jordi Culé

In his head.

There’s a saying north of Taffs Well for this sort of thinking “as dull as dogshit.”

I’d happily be proven wrong about Quiet Monkfish information though.

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It was a scientist writing in the Telegraph. Also a couple of other articles I've read along similar lines, but can't find them. Here's this from the Govt. own site :

R is estimated by a range of independent modelling groups based in universities and Public Health England (PHE). The modelling groups present their individual R estimates to the Science Pandemic Influenza Modelling group (SPI-M) - a subgroup of SAGE - for discussion. Attendees compare the different estimates of R and SPI- M collectively agrees a range which R is very likely to be within.


It's not the point I'm making, but it confirms that a number of organizations come up with what they think is the 'R' number and the take an average. So there may be a figure of 0.3 out there, there may be a figure of 0.1 out there. All very scientific but like all the cr*p we're having to take it's a combination of opinion, politics, with a smattering of hard evidence..

Here's a couple of articles from May claiming the r rate is probably as low outside hospitals and care homes as you suggest;-

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...laims-11985343

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...ostly-affects/

One is from an individual who it appears has some expertise on the subject and the other is a "government source" - I've always been cynical about quotes from Government sources, a feeling that has increased an awful lot over the last couple of months.

I don't quite understand. England are currently on level 4 of the Covid alert system but they've now announced that the vulnerable people who've been shielding can leave the house on Monday. So how have they jumped from level 4 to level 1 overnight?

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It feels a bit like let's see what happens and hope for the best over the bridge at the moment, I'm glad we're letting them plough the road

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Originally Posted by delmbox

I don't quite understand. England are currently on level 4 of the Covid alert system but they've now announced that the vulnerable people who've been shielding can leave the house on Monday. So how have they jumped from level 4 to level 1 overnight?

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It feels a bit like let's see what happens and hope for the best over the bridge at the moment, I'm glad we're letting them plough the road

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its mental, inside 2 weeks we are almost back to normally life down here, only need pubs and hair salons open and its done

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Originally Posted by blue matt

its mental, inside 2 weeks we are almost back to normally life down here, only need pubs and hair salons open and its done

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Just wash your hands, it'll be ok then.

I just read that Tim Matthews the man who reported the second sighting of Dominic Cummins in Co Durham had admitted he was lying and had not seen him. He said he did it is "A Joke". Also the retired teacher who reported him to the Police broke the rules himself when he drove 250 miles to collect his daughter who was self isolating in Berkshire, but he didn't declare it until his daughter was suddenly seen at his home and he had to admit it.
Apparently the thing was orchestrated by Baroness Armstrong, a very pro remain anti-brexit supporter who wanted to get back at Cummins for winning the exit referendum.
It also seems that Jeremy Hunt is one of the people briefing against the PM after he lost out in the race to be the New leader of the party.
And in other news MP Rosie Duffield had admitted she breached lock-down rules by visiting her 'Married Lover'.
All these people are as bad as each other.

Any word from people ITK about what city are going to do about their games if the restrictions are lifted by the Welsh Government?
And if the travel to use a ground in England will the police stop and find them for making an unnecessary journey more than 5 miles from home are will they be classed as going to work?

I don’t see how that changes much, his own statement was what was being debated anyway. They are all as bad as each other but that doesn’t make any of them less wrong.

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

I don’t see how that changes much, his own statement was what was being debated anyway. They are all as bad as each other but that doesn’t make any of them less wrong.

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I agree 100% but it does make one doubt more and more anything that is reported in the media.
I have said for a long time that when the media put up x number of 'ordinary' people that tends to show that the public is for or against a thing it should be obvious that if they held a different view and didn't agree with the argument that particular media outlet was making they wouldn't be included in the interview. not always but generally the point holds.

That aside it just demonstrates that you can't trust any of them.

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Originally Posted by delmbox

I don't quite understand. England are currently on level 4 of the Covid alert system but they've now announced that the vulnerable people who've been shielding can leave the house on Monday. So how have they jumped from level 4 to level 1 overnight?

Attachment 3865

It feels a bit like let's see what happens and hope for the best over the bridge at the moment, I'm glad we're letting them plough the road

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They have no idea what they are doing. The scientific community will continue to peel off one by to distance themselves from the decisions being made by the cabinet. The cabinet will continue to fully implicate sage in every announcement, something has to give.

Id be very shocked if we didn’t get a second peak in England, things had to be relaxed but it all seems a bit hit and hope atm.

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Originally Posted by Eric Cartman

They have no idea what they are doing. The scientific community will continue to peel off one by to distance themselves from the decisions being made by the cabinet. The cabinet will continue to fully implicate sage in every announcement, something has to give.

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It’s going to 3 isn’t it? Where can the vulnerable go anyway? Just out the front door? Wow they are lucky hey

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

I just read that Tim Matthews the man who reported the second sighting of Dominic Cummins in Co Durham had admitted he was lying and had not seen him. He said he did it is "A Joke". Also the retired teacher who reported him to the Police broke the rules himself when he drove 250 miles to collect his daughter who was self isolating in Berkshire, but he didn't declare it until his daughter was suddenly seen at his home and he had to admit it.
Apparently the thing was orchestrated by Baroness Armstrong, a very pro remain anti-brexit supporter who wanted to get back at Cummins for winning the exit referendum.
It also seems that Jeremy Hunt is one of the people briefing against the PM after he lost out in the race to be the New leader of the party.
And in other news MP Rosie Duffield had admitted she breached lock-down rules by visiting her 'Married Lover'.
All these people are as bad as each other.

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There has been spinning and misinformation on both sides in the Cummings scandal, but I don’t think any of these alleged revelations in the last few days change anything.

Most people have taken the version of events given by Cummings himself as the true account - and most people (a higher % than before he ‘set the record straight’) concluded that he has broken the lockdown rules, had produced a ludicrous self-justification for his actions and should resign or be sacked.

Rosie Duffield was stupid, but she accepted that she had broken the rules and resigned as an opposition whip. The difference between that and Cummings’ behaviour is stark!

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

I just read that Tim Matthews the man who reported the second sighting of Dominic Cummins in Co Durham had admitted he was lying and had not seen him. He said he did it is "A Joke". Also the retired teacher who reported him to the Police broke the rules himself when he drove 250 miles to collect his daughter who was self isolating in Berkshire, but he didn't declare it until his daughter was suddenly seen at his home and he had to admit it.
Apparently the thing was orchestrated by Baroness Armstrong, a very pro remain anti-brexit supporter who wanted to get back at Cummins for winning the exit referendum.
It also seems that Jeremy Hunt is one of the people briefing against the PM after he lost out in the race to be the New leader of the party.
And in other news MP Rosie Duffield had admitted she breached lock-down rules by visiting her 'Married Lover'.
All these people are as bad as each other.

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I'm not quite clear on how all these people get lumped together. Could you expand on how Armstrong, the former Durham MP who passed on information received, is "as bad" as Cummings. Likewise Jeremy Hunt, whatever his motivations, and actually Rosie Duffield who I understand has now apologised for her breach and stepped-down.

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Originally Posted by jon1959

There has been spinning and misinformation on both sides in the Cummings scandal, but I don’t think any of these alleged revelations in the last few days change anything.

Most people have taken the version of events given by Cummings himself as the true account - and most people (a higher % than before he ‘set the record straight’) concluded that he has broken the lockdown rules, had produced a ludicrous self-justification for his actions and should resign or be sacked.

Rosie Duffield was stupid, but she accepted that she had broken the rules and resigned as an opposition whip. The difference between that and Cummings’ behaviour is stark!

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I don't think the two things are in any way comparable I'll agree. What the MP did was stupid, particularly with a lover who just happens to be married to someone else. She must have been on the verge of being "Exposed" to have admitted it, which leave the question of did someone know and was keeping the info so they could release it when it could do her the most damage or did her lover's partner find out? either way, just like the others I doubt she would have volunteered the info.

I agree the don't change the stupidity/unlawfulness of what he did but the way it was stage managed, and the way part of it was found to be totally untrue like so many other 'revelations' make one doubt everything in the media, as I said.
For Matthews to say he did it "as a joke" is ridiculous. If it was only a joke he should have said so immediately it was in the national press. Again he probably only admitted it because he was about to be exposed anyway.

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

Here's a couple of articles from May claiming the r rate is probably as low outside hospitals and care homes as you suggest;-

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...laims-11985343

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...ostly-affects/

One is from an individual who it appears has some expertise on the subject and the other is a "government source" - I've always been cynical about quotes from Government sources, a feeling that has increased an awful lot over the last couple of months.

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Thanks Bob.

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

Thanks Bob.

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That’ll teach me for acting the gobby twat.

I’m standing corrected and give myself the ‘dull as dogshit’ title.

Interesting that Tim Spector take is not being explored more by government. It suggests that containing the virus would be easier to manage and requires a more focus on certain areas.

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

I just read that Tim Matthews the man who reported the second sighting of Dominic Cummins in Co Durham had admitted he was lying and had not seen him. He said he did it is "A Joke". Also the retired teacher who reported him to the Police broke the rules himself when he drove 250 miles to collect his daughter who was self isolating in Berkshire, but he didn't declare it until his daughter was suddenly seen at his home and he had to admit it.
Apparently the thing was orchestrated by Baroness Armstrong, a very pro remain anti-brexit supporter who wanted to get back at Cummins for winning the exit referendum.
It also seems that Jeremy Hunt is one of the people briefing against the PM after he lost out in the race to be the New leader of the party.
And in other news MP Rosie Duffield had admitted she breached lock-down rules by visiting her 'Married Lover'.
All these people are as bad as each other.

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Whataboutism at it's very finest.

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

I agree 100% but it does make one doubt more and more anything that is reported in the media.
I have said for a long time that when the media put up x number of 'ordinary' people that tends to show that the public is for or against a thing it should be obvious that if they held a different view and didn't agree with the argument that particular media outlet was making they wouldn't be included in the interview. not always but generally the point holds.

That aside it just demonstrates that you can't trust any of them.

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I can't remember. I don't read newspaper real or on line.

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:sherlock:

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Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO

:sherlock:

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I wondered when you'd crawl out from under your stone. You just can't give it up can you. you're a troll in all your guises and you're a waste!!! :wave:

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

I just read that Tim Matthews the man who reported the second sighting of Dominic Cummins in Co Durham had admitted he was lying and had not seen him. He said he did it is "A Joke". Also the retired teacher who reported him to the Police broke the rules himself when he drove 250 miles to collect his daughter who was self isolating in Berkshire, but he didn't declare it until his daughter was suddenly seen at his home and he had to admit it.
Apparently the thing was orchestrated by Baroness Armstrong, a very pro remain anti-brexit supporter who wanted to get back at Cummins for winning the exit referendum.
It also seems that Jeremy Hunt is one of the people briefing against the PM after he lost out in the race to be the New leader of the party.
And in other news MP Rosie Duffield had admitted she breached lock-down rules by visiting her 'Married Lover'.
All these people are as bad as each other.

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I saw that earlier - apparently Tim Matthews was a man who joked that he'd seen Cummings in co Durham, but not the person who first reported it - in any case he has admitted that he went there.

as for the second person it has always been acceptable to collect your children from university.

Why do you think these facts weren',t immediately apparent in the way that story was presented.

what does everyone make of all the donations to Hat Mancock's personal funds from people involved in horse racing?
I'm sure that can't have had any influence on the decision to recommence racing meetings from Monday.

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Originally Posted by Rjk

I saw that earlier - apparently Tim Matthews was a man who joked that he'd seen Cummings in co Durham, but not the person who first reported it - in any case he has admitted that he went there.

as for the second person it has always been acceptable to collect your children from university.

Why do you think these facts weren',t immediately apparent in the way that story was presented.

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Let's not get confused. The retired teacher saw Cummins in Barnard Castle whilst he was'isolating' in Durham, and he is the man who drove 250 miles to pick his daughter up. But not from University, from her boyfriend's home where she was self isolating having returned there from a trip to Canada.
Matthews was the person who said he had seen Cummins on a later separate occasion and allowed it to be printed in national newspapers and added further information referring to a fitness app he now admits he had doctored to prove his point, before now admitting that everything he said was lies and that he only did it "for a joke" some joke!
So you seem to have the 2 people reversed. It was the first who collect his daughter, but not from university, and the second one who made everything up.
As I say it makes you doubt everything, its all spun to suit different agenda.

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Originally Posted by Rjk

what does everyone make of all the donations to Hat Mancock's personal funds from people involved in horse racing?
I'm sure that can't have had any influence on the decision to recommence racing meetings from Monday.

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Do you know where we can view the list? Where is it published? I should think a politician, specially a government minister would have to declare his interests and his funding.

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

I wondered when you'd crawl out from under your stone. You just can't give it up can you. you're a troll in all your guises and you're a waste!!! :wave:

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No, you claimed you don't read newspapers (real or online) but you often seem to be incensed about something you've read. Maybe you should follow your own advice and not read newspapers (real or online).

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

Let's not get confused. The retired teacher saw Cummins in Barnard Castle whilst he was'isolating' in Durham, and he is the man who drove 250 miles to pick his daughter up. But not from University, from her boyfriend's home where she was self isolating having returned there from a trip to Canada.
Matthews was the person who said he had seen Cummins on a later separate occasion and allowed it to be printed in national newspapers and added further information referring to a fitness app he now admits he had doctored to prove his point, before now admitting that everything he said was lies and that he only did it "for a joke" some joke!
So you seem to have the 2 people reversed. It was the first who collect his daughter, but not from university, and the second one who made everything up.
As I say it makes you doubt everything, its all spun to suit different agenda.

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So, is Cummings off the hook now?

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Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO

No, you claimed you don't read newspapers (real or online) but you often seem to be incensed about something you've read. Maybe you should follow your own advice and not read newspapers (real or online).

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Trolling still. time to change your name again :wave: